A partnership of -A partnership of -

the State, CSIRO, and the Bureau of Meteorology,the State, CSIRO, and the Bureau of Meteorology,formed by the Western Australian Government formed by the Western Australian Government to support informed decision-making, to support informed decision-making, on climate variability and change in WA.on climate variability and change in WA.

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Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative

Lessons from living in the changing south-west climateLessons from living in the changing south-west climate

Personal impressions

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Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative

Outline:Outline: A discussion of the following A discussion of the following aspects of the region’s experience -aspects of the region’s experience -

Nature of issues posed by our changing climate

Vulnerability – the potential to be harmed by impacts

Awareness and commitment to action

Adaptation in decision-processes

Information, communication

Key observations

brian.sadler@bigpond.com

Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative

Nature of issues posed byNature of issues posed byour changing climateour changing climate

Climate change in this region is a present and significant reality which includes issues which have been quietly developing for decades

Some aspects of change (and impact) are insidious – hidden in natural variability (the water experience 70s to now). Surprises have also occurred (steps rather than trends).

Although some uncertainty is formidable it is not uniform or universal –uncertainty of state and trend vary with climate elements and detail required

Some key uncertainties relate to the present as well as the future climate

Actions and planning horizons have become more short term than under previous conditions (muddling through)

Current priority issues relate to base conditions more than extremes

Past, present and future climate are all relevant to decision-making

Issues are socio-politically complex as well as technically complex – they force new concepts of sustainability and create painful public decision-making issues

brian.sadler@bigpond.com

Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative

Vulnerability – Vulnerability – the potential to be harmed by impactsthe potential to be harmed by impacts

Two components of vulnerability – 1. Where impacts and change are

automatic 2. Where potential impacts may be

reduced by adaptive response

Planned Adaptation(reduction of vulnerability)Residual

Vulnerability

Resultant Impacts on WA

Climate Change

Automatic Adjustment

Vulnerability

Potential Harm

brian.sadler@bigpond.com

Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative

Vulnerability – Vulnerability – the potential to be harmed by impactsthe potential to be harmed by impacts

Within our region vulnerabilities differ markedly with- 1. Aspect of climate change

Two components of vulnerability – 1. Where impacts and change are

automatic 2. Where potential impacts may be

reduced by adaptive response

brian.sadler@bigpond.com

Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative

Vulnerability – Vulnerability – the potential to be harmed by impactsthe potential to be harmed by impacts

Within our region vulnerabilities differ markedly with-1. Aspect of climate change

2. Relation to risk structure of sector– mode of impact

3. Thresholds and non-linearities in hazard and impact

Two components of vulnerability – 1. Where impacts and change are

automatic 2. Where potential impacts may be

reduced by adaptive response

Illustrative comparison -selected sectors

modes of vulnerability to warming/drying

SectorSector

Mode of ImpactMode of ImpactRegularRegular

Production,Production,Sustainability, Sustainability,

FunctionFunction

Recurrent Recurrent Losses,Losses,

Damage or Damage or DisastersDisasters

Demand for Demand for Supply or Supply or ServiceService

Water Water Hi - already Low?Somenow

AgricultureAgriculture Emergent

HiPotential

Inter-nationaI?

BiodiversityBiodiversityEmergent

HiPotential NA

Fire & Fire & EmergencyEmergency

NA Potential Potential

EnergyEnergy No Low? Yes

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Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative

Vulnerability – Vulnerability – the potential to be harmed by impactsthe potential to be harmed by impacts

Example comparison -water and agriculture

vulnerability to rainfall decline

Scale and Scale and timing timing factorsfactors

WaterWater - AgricultureAgriculture

Buffering Threshold No Yes

Non-LinearMultiplier Yes No

Current Impact Scale Hi - now Emerging

Within our region vulnerabilities differ markedly with-1. Aspect of climate change

2. Relation to risk structure of sector – mode of impact

3. Thresholds and non-linearities in hazard and impact

Two components of vulnerability – 1. Where impacts and change are

automatic 2. Where potential impacts may be

reduced by adaptive response

brian.sadler@bigpond.com

Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative

Vulnerability – Vulnerability – the potential to be harmed by impactsthe potential to be harmed by impacts

Aspect of Change

Vulnerable Interests?

Drying water, biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, settlements, industry

Ocean Warming

biodiversity, fisheries, tourism

Terrestrial Warming

biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, settlements, health, power,

water

Fire Hazard public safety, biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, settlements

Sea Level Rise

settlements, infrastructure, biodiversity, tourism, industry

Storms and Floods

settlements, agriculture, infrastructure

Two components of vulnerability – 1. Where impacts and change are

automatic 2. Where potential impacts may be

reduced by adaptive response

Within our region vulnerabilities differ markedly with-1. Aspect of climate change

2. Relation to risk structure of sector – mode of impact

3. Thresholds and non-linearities in hazard and impact

Vulnerabilities and associated action priorities remain poorly defined

brian.sadler@bigpond.com

Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative

Awareness and Commitment to Awareness and Commitment to ActionAction

Varying commitment appears to reflect awareness as well as vulnerability

Uncertainty may be misinterpreted and

inhibiting awareness

Science based institutions seem more alert to the issues involved

Immediate survival predominates over future oriented strategy

Hard decisions tend to be avoided in debate

Lessons from parallels with salinity? (The issue-attention cycle)

Issue Attention CycleIssue Attention Cycle

AwarenessRe-awakening

Alarm &EnthusiasmPost Problem

DecliningInterest

PartSolutions

Realisingcost Organised

OppositionCompetingInterests &Diversions

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Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative

Adaptation in Decision-ProcessesAdaptation in Decision-Processes

Adaptive actions as, yet are few - Issues of uncertainty and perception have

been a barrier to acceptance of the role of adaptation and even now may be causing some priorities to be overlooked

Technically based enterprises appear to adapt more readily

Unilateral response is easier than multi-lateral or regulatory action

Change of outlook and approach - Outlook, dialogue and decision rules need to

adjust to the reality of a non-stationary environment

This is not easy and changes are slow in developing.

Three levels of Three levels of responseresponse

Ease of Ease of mobilising mobilising ownershipownership

1. Unilateral Actions1. Unilateral ActionsThe first line of actions

Highest

2. Coordinated Multi-2. Coordinated Multi-Lateral ActionsLateral ActionsMature community

responses

Low

3. Regulatory 3. Regulatory ProcessesProcesses

Adjustment for non-stationary climate

Low

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Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative

Research, information, communication -Research, information, communication -the pre-requisites to “informed adaptation”the pre-requisites to “informed adaptation”

Information demand from decision-makers relates to present more than to the future (survival) but past, present and future are all relevant

Sustained, strategically driven regional research and communication is needed to keep pace with evolving climate and science

Information needs vary - some adaptation can proceed on qualitative or semi-quantitative information, but some needs quantitative judgements

Regional climate science must be issue driven It is now opportune to consider developing more complete, issue

driven regional research, encompassing terrestrial, marine and coastal climates

With the many sectors affected and the complexity of the problem, effective and strategic communication also needs to develop.

brian.sadler@bigpond.com

Indian Ocean Climate InitiativeIndian Ocean Climate Initiative

Key ObservationsKey Observations

Climate change is now causing both automatic impacts and actionable vulnerability in SWWA. It will grow as a dominant issue through this century and may include surprises.

Vulnerabilities are diverse, with regionally unique characteristics. They vary greatly (in scale and timing) with climate aspect, sector and mode of impact, and warrant systematic review

Decision frameworks, analysis and debate need to re-align to a non-stationary, uncertain regime. Amended thinking will involve much debate e.g. re-defining ‘Sustainability’

Uncertainty is not uniform. Some elements show clear trends and some very uncertain. Many decision makers only need ‘confidence’ in directional trends.

Issue-driven science support has helped decision-making but should embrace the full breadth of terrestrial, marine, and coastal aspects of climate change and be continuously updating.

Present, past and future climate regimes are all relevant Unilateral, multi-lateral and regulatory responses are all relevant but, for empowerment,

require different scales of maturity in public awareness Communication must engage the attention of a wide community base, not just those with

science background. Uncertainty, fact and contentiousness need better differentiation