A Proposed National ESMF-based Modeling System (NEMS). NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems. Louis Uccellini 31 July 2007. ~ Executive Summary ~. NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems. Current (2007). Current - 2007. GDAS. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
1 A Proposed National ESMF- based Modeling System (NEMS) Louis Uccellini 31 July 2007 N C EP Production Suite W eather,O cean & Clim ate ForecastSystem s Version 3.0 April9,2004 0 20 40 60 80 100 0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6 H ourC ycle PercentUsed RUC FIREWX W AVES HUR/HRW G FSfcst G FSanal G FSens E TAfcst ETAanal SREF AirQuality OCEAN Monthly S easonal NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems
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A Proposed National ESMF-basedModeling System (NEMS)
Louis Uccellini31 July 2007
NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems
“Model of the day” is not a scientifically supportable solution for the future
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Concurrent execution of global and regional forecast models (Phase 1)
Model Region 1
Model Region 2
Global/Regional Model Domain
• Common Modeling Infrastructure is ESMF-based• In-core Solution
– Single executable for analysis, all model domains– No file writes to (or reads from) disk except for saving output– Provides
• Concurrent execution of ensembles– Single executable, multiple members– “On-the-fly” breeding throughout the forecast from all members
• More efficient execution of rapid updating– In-core updating for analysis increments – Regional (CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Caribbean, Guam & Puerto Rico) – Global (if requirements and resources)
Analysis
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Concurrent execution of global and regional forecast models (Phase 2)
Model Region 1
Model Region 2
Global/Regional Model DomainAnalysis
Local Solution
• Real time boundary and initial conditions available hourly
– “On-demand” downscaling to local applications• Similar to current hurricane runs but run either
– Centrally at OR– Locally (B.C, I. C. retrieved from on-line data)
• No boundary or initial conditions older than 1 hour – Flexibility for “over capacity” runs (e.g. Fire Wx, Hurricane)
• Using climate fraction must be planned• No impact on remainder of services
• For NEXTGEN: A consistent solution from global to local with a single forecast system and ensembles providing estimate of uncertainty
Planned NEMS Capabilities• Components and capabilities of the NEMS infrastructure
– Configuration control• Domain• Resolution (horizontal, vertical)• Standardized fixed field generation (WPS - topography, land use, etc)• Tracer definition
– Observations ingest, formatting, QC, etc libraries– Nesting (static and moving, telescoping, 1-way, 2-way)– Concurrent ensemble execution (single executable, multiple members)– Data assimilation (3D-var and advanced techniques)– In-core updating for analysis increments and boundary conditions– Model dynamics and physics including
• Atmosphere• Ocean• Land surface and hydrology• Air Quality and trace gases
– Post-processor and product generator– Standard operational verification– Documentation for operational and research users
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Planned NEMS Capabilities (cont)• Modeling Research
– Global and regional– Institutionally supported components
– Next-generation Doppler radar• Next-Generation Air Traffic-control System (NEXTGEN)
– Geographically consistent solutions– Global to terminal scales– At least hourly updating globally
• “Completing the Forecast,” “Fair Weather” reports
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Additional forcing and enabling factors (cont)
• Advanced probabilistic (post-processing) techniques becoming available through NAEFS project– Bias correction– 2nd moment correction– Classical (frequentist) and Bayesian techniques
• Advanced dissemination strategies– E.g. NOMADS (“Fat server/Thin Client” technology)
• Maturing, ensemble-based, probabilistic systems offer the most potential benefit– Hypothetical ideal state may be
• Combination of dynamics (N~2) and physics ( M~3) components and/or
• Stochastic physics within the best model– Managed (N, M) component diversity based on controlled
experiments and assessment of value-added• CFS & DEMETER work (EMC & CPC)• Components institutionally supported (operational or major
