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“A Reality Check”
Matt Herb, PresidentOSTA, OSC, OSGL
October 23, 2009
General economic conditions• Uncertainty of future• Unemployment• Lower housing starts• Different priorities
Higher input costs for consumers•Fuel•Fertilizer•Chemicals•Labor
Lower tax revenues - lower spending on schools, parks, roadsides
Lower golf rounds
Lower beef cattle numbers, milk prices
Stronger dollar against foreign currencies
Higher• Fuel• Fertilizer• Chemicals• Labor (Oregon is #2 for minimum wage)
More Legislation that increases cost• Burn ban• Bio-fuels• Taxes• User fees• Licenses
5 year average usage 253 million lbs.
‘08/’09 usage 228 million ‘09/’10 est. usage 228 million
July 1, 2009 carryover 50 million’09 est. crop 216 millionJuly 1 2010 carryover 38 million
14 month supply
5 year average usage 213 million lbs.
‘08/’09 usage 146 million ‘09/’10 est. usage 166 million (20 mill less for MN & CAN)
July 1, 2009 carryover 100 million’09 est. crop 154 millionJuly 1 2010 carryover 88 million
18 month supply
5 year average usage 228 million lbs.
‘08/’09 usage 228 million ‘09/’10 est. usage 198 million (30 mill add MO K-31)
July 1, 2009 carryover 120 million’09 est. crop 210 millionJuly 1 2010 carryover 138 million
20 month supply
5 year average usage 15 million lbs.
‘08/’09 usage 10 million ‘09/’10 est. usage 10 million
July 1, 2009 carryover 3 million’09 est. crop 13 millionJuly 1 2010 carryover 6 million
19 month supply
4 year average usage 5.5 million lbs.
‘08/’09 usage 3.5 million ‘09/’10 est. usage 3.5 million
July 1, 2009 carryover 2 million’09 est. crop 5 millionJuly 1 2010 carryover 3.5 million
24 month supply
4 year average usage 2.8 million lbs.
‘08/’09 usage 1.9 million ‘09/’10 est. usage 1.9 million
July 1, 2009 carryover 1 million’09 est. crop 4.5 millionJuly 1 2010 carryover 3.5 million
34 month supply
Reduce acres to match current demandAlternative cropsReduce inputs and input costReduce laborExplore programs- FSA, NCRS, ODA, etc.Develop a cropping planDevelop a marketing plan
Decide to be profitable!
Decide to think outside the box!Decide to control fear and greed!Decide to think “industry” instead of “self”!