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A Regional Chemical Reanalysis Prototype

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

Pius Lee1, Greg Carmichael2, Tianfeng Chai3, Rick Saylor4,Li Pan3,Hyuncheol Kim3, Daniel Tong3, Ariel Stein1, and

Yongtao Hu5

1Air Resources Lab., NOAA, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD2Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA

3Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellite, University of Maryland, College Park, MD4Air Resources Lab., NOAA, Oak Ridge, TN

5School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA

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OUTLINEChemical Reanalysis objective: Integration of obs and model

Regional prototype: met-model, Data assimilation, and CTM

Real Time intermittent sources accounted: HMS wild fires

Dynamic LBC from RAQM: OMI O3 and MODIS AOD, wild fires

Observations ingested: MODIS AOD, AIRNow PM2.5

DISCOVER-AQ 2011 case study: Show stepwise improvement

Example end-user: SIP modeling initialized by reanalysis

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

312th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

Constrained

SatelliteProducts

Global Assimilation

+ AQ Assessments

+ State Implementation Plan Modeling

+ Rapid deployment of on-demand

+ Rapid-respond forecasting; e.g., Methane leakage from fracking

+ Demonstration of the impact of observations on AQ distributions

http://acmg.seas.harvard.edu/aqast/projects.html

Upcoming AQAST Project: Air Quality Reanalysis Greg Carmichael + others (Translating Research to Services)

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Courtesy: Carmichael, Keynote speechIWAQFR 2011, Nov 29 – Dec 1 2011, D.C.

Challenge: Achieving A Closer Integration Of Observations And Models

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

Poster: Aijun Xiu: “GOES DA in WRF model

This study aims to build a prototype User friendliness and reliability are keys to success: e.g..

Goal: A user friendly downloadable archive

512th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

Base NMMB-CMAQ471; EPA 2012 aa mobile/area; 2011 CEM point

Raqms Dynamic Chemical LBC

Fire HMS (~7 satellites) wild fire*

AOD-DA IO method D.A. MODIS AOD

AIRNow PM

AIRNow ~ 300 monitors with 6 hourly PM2.5 obs

Building a chemical reanalysis prototype & its testing :Incremental ingestion of observations

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CMAQPM

MODIS

AIRNow

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

*Poster: Tao Zeng: “Calibration using burn permits”

MODIS AOD & AIRNow PM2.5 ingestion

12Z 15Z 18Z 21Z 00Z 06Z 12Z 15Z

This is set up not ideal:Working towards ingesting AIRNow 6 hourly,and 4 cycles per day.

17Z

NCEP NDAS full cycling

Forward model with obs ingested by OI feeds next cycle OI: MODIS total AOD

OI: AIRNow PM2.5

18Z

Forecast by CTM constrained by IC adjustment

17Z 20Z

712th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

O3 verification statistics over CONUS with NAM-CMAQ for August 1-5 2006. (Tang et al. 2008 Environ. Fluid Mech.)

Case Mean bias Regression slope Corr. Coef.

Fixed LBC 8.0 0.887 0.714GFS O3 9.2 0.935 0.714MOZART 8.2 0.941 0.716RAQMS 10.0 0.911 0.718

812th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

HMS wildfire detections during Apr. 2010

Emission should include Exo- and intra-domain wild fires

5xAgricultural burningprevails in the monthsof March and Aprilin Mexico

912th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

Talk: Stephen Reid: “HRes MODIS AOD for large fires 11:00 am tomorrow

MODIS AOD Assimilation

)()( 1 HXYOHBHBHXX TTba

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MODIS obs

CMAQ base

Difference map: Analysis minus Base

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

C

R

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

50

100

150

200

250

MODIS_FINE: 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5

Observation Input

Background Input

Analysis output

OI

Methodology of OI: Take account forbackground input; Obs; andphysical processes from model

1112th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

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MODIS AOD CMAQ Base

Analysis - BaseCMAQ Analysis

HMS detected large swath of smoke in EUS on July 2 2011

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

Total AOD assimilation tests

Day

AO

DR

MS

E

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 130

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Base caseOI forecastOI analysis

Base case: CMAQ4.7.1 without any data assimilationOI forecast: CMAQ results after assimilating previous day AOD observationsOI Analysis: CMAQ results after assimilating same day AOD, for next day forecast

Day

AO

DR

MS

E

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 130

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Base caseOI forecastOI analysis

Fine mode AOD assimilation Total AOD assimilation

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18Z

17Z 20Z OI: MODIS total AOD

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

Upper Midwest Northeast US

Rock Mountain Region Lower Midwest

Pacific Coast Region Southeast US

1412th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

P3 Three and a half loops: Beltsville Padonia Fairhill Aldino Edgewood Essex Chesapeake Bay

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CO (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: AOD_DA case vs. Obs

100

200

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

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O3 (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: AOD_DA case vs. Obs

HCHO (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: AOD_DA case vs. Obs

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

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O3 (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: various cases vs. Obs

NOy (ppb) along the P3 Flight – July 2 2011: various cases vs. Obs

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

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36-km (148x112)

12-km (123x138)

36-km (148x112)

12-km (123x138)

WRF 3.2.1 for meteorological fields•NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) 32-km resolution inputs•NCEP ADP surface and soundings observational data •MODIS landuse data for most recent land cover status•3-D and surface nudging, Noah land-surface model

SMOKE 2.6 for CMAQ ready gridded emissions •NEI inventory projected to 2011 using EGAS growth and existing control strategies •BEIS3 biogenic emissions based on BELD3 database•GOES biomass burning emissions: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/EPA/GBBEP/

CMAQ 5.0 •SAPRC99 mechanism, AERO5, ISORROPIA thermodynamic, Mass conservation

Initialization of chemical fields for 4 km domain•From 12 km reanalysis field provided by ARL/NOAALBC for chemical fields for 4 km domain•From 12 km reanalysis field provided by ARL/NOAA

GA Tech as end user of product of re-analysis fields

IC/BC of Base and AOD_DA cases

DISCOVER-AQGA_Tech4 km

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

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24 h PM2.5 on 07/02/2011 :(a) Base, (b) AOD_DA for DISCOVER-AQ GA Tech 4 km

(a) (b)

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

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(a) (b)

24 h PM2.5 on 07/07/2011 :(a) Base, (b) AOD_DA for DISCOVER-AQ GA Tech 4 km

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

PM2.5 24h avg Obs mean Mean bias RMSE Corr. Coef.

Base 12.75 -4.55 7.92 0.55

RAQMS 12.75 -4.45 7.87 0.55

Fire 12.75 -4.33 7.80 0.55

PM2.5 24h avg Obs mean Mean bias RMSE Corr. Coef.

Base 14.49 -4.07 6.63 0.64

RAQMS 14.49 -3.96 6.55 0.64

Fire 14.49 -3.89 6.51 0.64

NE12 km

CONUS12 km

PM2.5 24h avg Obs mean Mean bias RMSE Corr. Coef.

Base 17.36 -5.88 22.50 0.40

Re-analysis aided IC and LBC

14.49 -3.48 22.19 0.42

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DISCOVER-AQGA_Tech4 km

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

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Push towards higher resolution at NCEP

product Targeted next date Remark

GFS T878L64 ~ 22km April 2014

GDAS T574 Enkr/GSI ~ 27 km April 2014

GEFS T382L64 ~ 35 km April 2014 ~30 members

NAM 12 km North America Already in place

NAM 3 km CONUS nest July 2014

NAM On demand basis 1.3 km limited domain

Already in place Fire weather

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

Poster: Pat Dolwick: “Comparison of CMAQ performance as a funciton of grid resolution for 2007”

Talk: Jason Ching: “km scale mesoscale Met modeling 1:20pm tomorrow for AQ simulations”

Talk: Mark Estes: “Regional background O3 for Houston, 11:20am tomorrow Texas.”

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Prototype:•Started on ARL and AQAST initiated Chemical Reanalysis•Expandable and updatable to capture chemical state of the

Troposphere hourly in 12 km resolution•Prototype modeling system comprised of:

CTM: CMAQ4.7.1 and D.A. algorithm: Optimal Interpolation (OI) •Observation assimilated:

HMS wild fireMODIS total AOD twice dailyAIRNow PM2.5 6 hourly.

Next Step:•Assimilate GOES clouds to constrain photolytic rates•Transition OI to GSI protocol for operational implementation

12th CMAS: Oct_28_to_30_2013, Chapel Hill, NC

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EXTRA SLIDES

Contact: Pius.Lee@noaa.govhttp://www.arl.noaa.gov/

Poster: Hyuncheol Kim: “GOME2, OMI NO2

Talk 10:20 am tomorrow

• Thank you for voicing support to NAQFC “I am writing to comment on the Proposed Termination of NWS Ozone Air Quality Predictions …The NAQFC is the only numerical forecast model that is available every day, is fully documented, accessible for evaluation, and shows good forecast skill. It should be retained”. (November 1 2012, Bill Ryan, PSU)

On “The proposal to shelve the $5.4 million National Air Quality Forecasting Capability in March has drawn protests from public health officials…” (January 26 2013, Dan Vergano, USA Today)

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November 2012, MDE as Oppose_1

Will AOD assimilation improve PM2.5?Which one is better, fine mode or total?

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/spb/aq