8/2/2019 A Review of Sub Saharan Africa in 2010 http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/a-review-of-sub-saharan-africa-in-2010 1/12 A review of Sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 Executive Summary Wood Mackenzie has reviewed exploration, production and reserves for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. We estimate that 3.5 billion boe of reserves were discovered in 2010, a 33% increase from 2009. Around 60% of the reserves discovered was gas, and 97% of the total reserves were in deep water. Offshore East Africa emerged as a new frontier exploration province as nearly half of the reserves were discovered in the deepwater Rovuma Basin of Mozambique. E&A well completions fell 14% to 114, and exploration success rates fell to 34%. But reserves discovered per well nearly doubled to 45 mmboe reflecting the large discovery sizes in East Africa. Liquids production was six million barrels per day, up 4.5% on 2009. Forty percent of this was from deep water. Total gas production was 4,500 mmcfd, up 6% from last year. In both cases, improved security in Nigeria was a major factor. February 2011 Sub-Saharan Africa
Wood Mackenzie has reviewed exploration, production and reserves for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2010.We estimate that 3.5 billion boe of reserves were discovered in 2010, a 33% increase from 2009.Around 60% of the reserves discovered was gas, and 97% of the total reserves were in deep water.
Offshore East Africa emerged as a new frontier exploration province as nearly half of the reserves werediscovered in the deepwater Rovuma Basin of Mozambique.
E&A well completions fell 14% to 114, and exploration success rates fell to 34%. But reservesdiscovered per well nearly doubled to 45 mmboe reflecting the large discovery sizes in East Africa.
Liquids production was six million barrels per day, up 4.5% on 2009. Forty percent of this was fromdeep water. Total gas production was 4,500 mmcfd, up 6% from last year. In both cases, improvedsecurity in Nigeria was a major factor.
35 exploration licences were awarded in 2010, compared to 49 in 2009. (Please refer toAppendix A). Fifty-three companies participated in the licences, and seven became first-time operators. These wereCaprikat, Cobalt International, Fenno Caledonian, HRT Oil & gas, Jupiter Petroleum, Star Petroleum and Tap Oil.
Cobalt already had a presence in the region after faming into the Diaba Block in Gabon. However, the company wasawarded operatorship of Blocks 9 and 21 in Angola’s Kwanza Basin. The blocks have pre-salt potential which will betested this year.
Brazil’s HRT Oil & Gas signed three of the five deepwater blocks awarded in Namibia. Again, pre-salt potential was themain attraction, and the company hopes that its Namibian acreage will have similar prospectivity to Brazil’s SantosBasin, which holds billion-barrel oil discoveries. The other two blocks were signed by Jupiter Petroleum.
The Angolan pre-salt licensing round (please see February 2011 Insight) was invite-only, while the deepwater Gaboneseround and the Nigerian marginal fields round were cancelled.
Exploration acreage awarded in 2010
0
3
6
9
S o u t h
A f r i c a
S u d a n
E t h i o p i a
N a m i b i a
D R C
K e n y a
A n g o l a
E q .
G u i n e a
M o z a m b i q u e
T a n z a n i a
C a m e r o o n
G a b o n
N i g e r i a
G h a n a
B l o c k s a w a r d e d
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
A c r e a g e ( k m 2 )
Onshore Shelf Deepwater Acreage (km2)
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Licence acquisitions and farm-ins were evident as companies sought to gain access to emerging plays in East Africa andthe West African Transform Margin (WATM). The biggest exploration deal was Afren’s acquisition of Black MarlinEnergy, which included 12 exploration blocks in Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar and the Seychelles.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) awarded a relatively unknown company, Caprikat, blocks l and ll on the highlysought-after Albert Graben bordering Uganda. The blocks were previously disputed by Tullow Oil and PetroSA. Also in
the East African Rift valley, Beach Energy had its Lake Tanganyika South licence ratified, following three years ofnegotiations with the Tanzanian authorities.
In the WATM, the only new deepwater licence went to Tap Oil in Ghana’s Keta-Togo Basin, near the Togo border.However, the majors still increased their presence along the WATM. Chevron acquired 70% of three deepwater blocksin Liberia, while Total acquired 60% of the CI-100 block in Cote d’Ivoire, which is adjacent to the highly prospectiveDeepwater Tano block in Ghana.
Nigeria again saw very little activity with only two shallow water blocks awarded to Asher Xino and Essar Exploration. InGabon, Total revived its interest in onshore exploration by acquiring shares in three under-explored licences in thecountry’s transition zone.
1
The countries covered are Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Central African Republic, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea Bissau-Senegal JEZ, Kenya,Liberia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Nigeria-São Tome JDZ, São Tome, Senegal, Seychelles,Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Western Sahara and Zambia.
ENH (Mozambique’s NOC) features well in reserves discovered on account of its 15% interest in Anadarko’sMozambique wells.
Tullow Oil continued to be the most active explorer in Sub-Sahara Africa. The company operated 10 wells andparticipated in another 15. Tullow was focussed mostly on the appraisal of Block 2 in Uganda while it made a furtherdiscovery in Block 1. The company also had continuing success in Ghana with the discovery of Owo, (renamedEnyenra) and a successful appraisal of the Tweneboa field on its Deepwater Tano Block. Total working interest reservesdiscovered3 amounted to 175 mmboe.
Maurel & Prom operated more E&A wells than any other company in 2010 with efforts concentrated in Gabon. However,it only recorded one small discovery in the year.
Top 15 companies by E&A Drilling activity*
0
5
10
15
20
25
T u l l o w
O i l
M a u r e l & P r o m
T o t a l
S o n a n g o l P & P
S i n o p e c
A n a d a r k o
E n i
S N P C
S o n a n g o l S i n o p e c I n t ' l
G N P C
F a l c o n O i l
E N H
S t a t o i l
S a b r e O & G
P e t r o b r a s
N
u m b e r o f w e l l s
0100200
300400500600700800
Operated Non-OperatedConfirmed Discoveries Working Interest Reserves (mmboe)
Source: Wood Mackenzie
*Sudan is excluded due to incomplete data.
Total participated in 14 E&A wells in the year and recorded seven discoveries. The year ended on a high withdiscoveries two of its operated wells: Bilondo Marine 2 and 3 in the offshore Moho-Bilondo licence in the Lower CongoBasin.
Eni was also successful in 2010, principally in deepwater block 15/06 in Angola. It operated five E&A wells discovering atotal of 120 mmboe of net working interest reserves, most in the Cabaca-SE field. It was less successful in Ghana,where its second well on its deepwater South Cape three Points proved to be dry.
Discoveries
Only 25 discoveries were made during 2010 compared with 43 in 2009. However, over 3.5 billion barrels of oilequivalent were discovered, which represents an increase by a third from the year before. Sixty percent of thesereserves are gas, which in Sub-Sahara Africa is much more challenging to commercialise. The average discovery sizewas 141 mmboe, compared to 60 mmboe in 2009. The deepwater sector accounted for 97% of total discoveredreserves discovered. The largest finds were gas: Windjammer, Barquentine and Lagosta in Mozambique. The biggestoil finds were Cabaca-SE in Angola and Mercury in Sierra Leone. The Rovuma Basin in Mozambique accounted fornearly half of the total reserves discovered during the year. An outlook for exploration in 2011 is shown in Appendix C.
Total Liquids Production Liquids Production in Nigeria & Angola
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2009 2010
' 0 0 0 b / d
Nigeria Angola SudanEquatorial Guinea Congo GabonChad Cameroon Cote d`IvoireDRC South Africa MauritaniaGhana Mozambique Uganda
Source: Wood Mackenzie
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2009 2010
' 0 0 0 b / d
Nigeria Angola
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Nigeria retained its status as the region’s top liquids producer, with 2.5 million b/d produced from over 230 fields.
Although this is much higher than its reported OPEC quota of 1.7 million b/d, Nigeria classes a sizable percentage ofproduction as NGLs and condensates rather than crude.
Most of the observed 265,000 b/d net rise across the region came from Nigeria, where production is directly affected bymilitant attacks on infrastructure. The observed increase was mostly from the Shell JV where output rebounded from itslowest level since 1968 which was recorded last year. Rising production from the deepwater Agbami and Akpo fieldsalso contributed to the overall increase.
Angola produced nearly 1.9 million b/d in 2010 from 74 mostly deepwater fields. Although production was down slightly,it was not constrained by its OPEC quota of 1.65 million b/d.
Liquids production by country excluding Nigeria & Angola
0
100
200
300
400
500
S u d a
n
E q u a t o r i a l
G u i n
e a
C o n g
o
G a b o
n C h
a d
C a m
e r o o n
C o t e d
` I v o i r e
D R C
S o u t h A f r i c
a
M a u r i t a
n i a
G h a n a
M o z a m b i q u
e
U
g a n d a
' 0 0 0 b / d
2009 2010
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Sudan remained Sub-Saharan Africa’s third biggest liquids producer and averaged 467,000 b/d. Production from Congo(Brazzaville) was 334,000 b/d, up 23% on 2009. This was the biggest percentage increase of any country, and was dueto the Azurite Marine and Awa Paloukou fields achieving peak production. Successful application of secondary recoverytechniques and intensive management of mature assets in Gabon kept production steady at around 275,000 b/d. Ghanaentered the ranks of major oil producers in December when the giant deepwater Jubilee field commenced production.
Total remaining commercial liquids Remaining commercial liquids in Nigeria & Angola
0
19,000
38,000
31/12/2009 31/12/2010
m i l l i o n b a r r e l s
Nigeria Angola Ghana SudanCongo Equatorial Guinea Uganda GabonChad Niger Cameroon Cote d`IvoireDRC South Africa Mozambique Mauritania
Source: Wood Mackenzie
0
6,000
12,000
18,000
31/12/2009 31/12/2010
m i l l i o n b a r r e l s
Niger ia Angola
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Remaining commercial liquids by country excluding Nigeria & Angola
0
600
1,200
1,800
G h a n a
S u d a
n
C o n g
o
E q u a t o r i a l G
u i n e a
U g a n d a
G a b o
n C h
a d N i
g e r
C a m e
r o o n
C o t e
d ` I v
o i r e
D R C
S o u t h A f r i c a
M o z a m b i q
u e
M a u r i t a
n i a
m i l l i o n b a r r e l s
31/12/2009 31/12/2010
Source: Wood Mackenzie
In Ghana, an upgrade in Jubilee’s reserves and appraisal of the deepwater Enyenra and Tweneboa fields led to a 48%increase in commercial liquids reserves, easily the biggest increase in the region.
In Equatorial Guinea, remaining liquids reserves were up slightly due to the commercialisation of oil and condensatereserves in Block O, containing the Alen and Carmen fields, operated by Noble Energy.
Nigeria Equatoria l Guinea MozambiqueSouth A f rica Cote d` Ivoire TanzaniaGabon Congo
Source: Wood Mackenzie
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
N i g e
r i a
E q u a t o r
i a l G u i n e a
M o z a m b i q
u e
S o u t h A f r i c a
C o t e
d ` I v
o i r e
T a n z a n i a
G a b o
n
C o n g
o
m m c f d
20092010
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Nigeria accounted for two thirds of the 4,500 mmcfd of gas produced in Sub-Saharan Africa. And almost the entireobserved net 300 mmcfd rise in the region occurred here. Gas production in Nigeria is also directly affected by militantattacks. 2010 production rebounded after a key pipeline feeding the Soku gas plant was badly disrupted in 2009.Notable Nigerian gas developments were the early start-up of Shell’s Gbaran-Ubie integrated oil and gas project, andproduction growth from Akpo.
Commercial gas reserves
Total remainin commercial as Remainin commercial as exc. Ni eria
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
31/12/2009 31/12/2010
b c f
Nigeria Angola Equatorial GuineaMozambique Ghana South Af ricaCongo Cote D'Ivoire TanzaniaCameroon Gabon Senegal
Source: Wood Mackenzie
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
A n g o l a
E q u a t o r
i a l G u i n
e a
M o z a m b i q
u e
G h a n a
S o u t h A
f r i c a
C o n g
o
C o t e
D ' I v
o i r e
T a n z a n i a
C a m e
r o o n
G a b o
n
S e n e
g a l
b c f
31/12/2009
31/12/2010
Source: Wood Mackenzie
In 2010, Wood Mackenzie scaled-back our estimate of commercial reserves in Nigeria, due to continuing uncertaintyover domestic demand and a delayed FID for Brass LNG. Elsewhere, the key mover was Ghana. An upgrade in
Jubilee’s reserves and appraisal of the deepwater Enyenra and Tweneboa fields led to an 80% increase in commercialgas reserves. Remaining commercial reserves in Ghana were 860 bcf higher than 2009.
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