Issue Two Voters in Ohio

Key findings from survey among 1015 voters, including early

voters and Election Day voters Conducted for the AFL-CIO

HART RESEARCH A S S O T E SC I A

Ohio Issue Two Voters – November 2011 – Hart Research for AFL-CIO 2

Strong No Vote On Issue 2

Voted Yes

All Voters

How did you vote on Issue 2?

Description of Issue 2 provided: “One of the measures on the ballot was Issue Two, which would place certain limits on government union contracts and collective bargaining for government employees. A "yes" vote on Issue Two would APPROVE a law placing limits on government union contracts and collective bargaining for government employees. A "no" vote on Issue Two would REJECT the law placing limits on government union contracts and collective bargaining for government employees.

Voted No

Voted Yes Voted No

Election Day Voters 41% 59%

Early Voters 31% 69%

Ohio Issue Two Voters – November 2011 – Hart Research for AFL-CIO 3

Broad Opposition To Issue Two Voted Yes

48% 14%

43% 27%

42% 7%

34% 38% 42%

39% 46%

Voted No

52% 86%

57% 73%

58% 93%

66% 62% 58%

61% 54%

Union Status Non-union members Union members

Public employee in HH No PE in household PE in household

Race Whites Blacks

Age 18 to 39 40 to 59 60/over

Education/Whites Non-college grads College graduates

Voted Yes

8% 30% 64%

6% 43% 70% 58% 77%

74% 9%

Voted No

92% 70% 36%

94% 57% 30% 42% 23%

26% 91%

Ideology Liberals Moderates Conservatives

Party ID Democrats Independents Republicans Lib/Mod GOPs Conserv GOPs

2010 Vote Kasich Strickland

Ohio Issue Two Voters – November 2011 – Hart Research for AFL-CIO 4

Voters: Issue Two Not The Change Ohio Voted For In 2010

Issue Two is the change Ohio was

voting for

Would you say Issue Two and Senate Bill Five was the change Ohio was voting for when it elected Governor Kasich and a Republican majority in the legislature?

All Voters This is the change Ohio was voting for in 2010:

Democrats Independents Republicans

Cleveland Cincinnati/Dayton Columbus

Ohio was voting for different kind

of change

6% 22% 45%

28% 20% 27%

Ohio Issue Two Voters – November 2011 – Hart Research for AFL-CIO 5

Ohio Voters Favor Collective Bargaining Rights for Public Employees

PE should be allowed collective

bargaining

Regardless of how you voted on Issue Two, should public employees who work for state or city government, or a school district be allowed to engage in collective bargaining over wages, benefits, and working conditions, such as staffing levels?

All Voters

PE should not be allowed collective

bargaining

Definitely should

57%

66%

Definitely should not

18%

27%

Should be allowed Should not be allowed

PE Hhld 73%

23%

Non-PE Hhld 64%

28%

Ohio Issue Two Voters – November 2011 – Hart Research for AFL-CIO 6

Issue Two Expected To Have Negative Effects

Expected Impact if Issue Two Approved

No Voters: Negative Impact

80%

80%

80%

75%

74%

Issue Two would have negative impact on this Issue Two would have positive impact on this

Wages and benefits for workers

Middle class

Public safety

Jobs and the economy

Quality of public education

All voters

Ohio Issue Two Voters – November 2011 – Hart Research for AFL-CIO 7

Kasich Coalition Now Divided

Voted Yes

90% 4%

78% 10%

60%

23%

7%

Voted No

28% 62%

49% 39%

12%

87%

65%

Kasich Voters by Vote on Issue Two

Kasich as Governor: Approve Disapprove

GOPs in OH Legislature: Approve Disapprove

Issue Two/SB5: Was change Ohio was voting for in 2010

Support CB for public employees

Partisan attack on unions

Ohio Issue Two Voters – November 2011 – Hart Research for AFL-CIO 8

Perceptions Of Governor Kasich And Republicans In Legislature

% saying each statement applies to the Governor & Republican leaders in Ohio Kasich

Defectors

69%

61%

54%

30%

21%

26%

Unfairly blamed public employees for state’s

fiscal problems Putting interests of big corporations ahead of

average working people Pursuing partisan political

agenda instead of doing what’s needed to improve

economy Look out for interests of

people like me

Create jobs/strengthen Ohio economy

Brought govt spending under control w/out

harming education/svcs

All voters

Ohio Issue Two Voters – November 2011 – Hart Research for AFL-CIO 9

Support For Issue Two Will Hurt GOP Nominee

Mitt Romney Rick Perry

Mitt Romney and Rick Perry have said they strongly support Issue Two. How will this affect your support for Romney or Perry if he is the GOP nominee for president?

Less likely to support him for president More likely to support him for president

Less likely More likely

Yes voters 10% 43%

No voters 73% 4%

Less likely More likely

Yes voters 9% 40%

No voters 78% 4%

Ohio Issue Two Voters – November 2011 – Hart Research for AFL-CIO 10

Ohio Voters To GOP: Drop The Issue And Move On

Drop the issue and move on

to other issues

If Ohio voters reject Issue Two, Governor Kasich and Republicans in the state legislature have said they might try to pass similar legislation again. If the voters reject Issue Two, I think Republicans should:

Try to pass similar

legislation

If my senator/legislator votes to pass another law similar to Issue Two: I would be less likely to vote for him/her

I would be more likely to vote for him/her

56%

32% Feel strongly

55%

60%

Feel strongly

30%

35%

Issue Two Voters in Ohio

Key findings from survey among 1015 voters, including early

voters and Election Day voters Conducted for the AFL-CIO

HART RESEARCH A S S O T E SC I A