A Saudi Arabian Defense DoctrineMapping the expanded force structure the Kingdom needs to lead the Arab world, stabilize the region, and meet its global responsibilities

Nawaf ObaidVisiting FellowBelfer Center for Science & International AffairsHarvard Kennedy School

May 28th, 2014Washington, D.C.

Saudi Geopolitical Realities

• Custodianship of Makkah and Madinah, Islam's two holiest sites.

• The leading country in the Arab world (Arabs comprise a vast majority of the inhabitants of the MENA region).

• G-20 member as the economic engine and most important financial power in the MENA region.

• OPEC’s de facto leader as the world’s largest petroleum producer & exporter and holder of largest reserves and spare capacity.

• Sunni state in a world where Muslims are predominantly of this denomination.

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Saudi Defense Doctrine’s Seven Goals

• Defend the homeland

• Succeed in counterterrorism efforts

• Bolster the defense of partner states

• Prevail in power projection missions

• Deter the spread of weapons of mass destruction

• Establish two separate commands for cyberspace & space

• Strengthen inter-agency partnerships 3

Saudi Land & Sea Borders

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RSLF (Army) Minimum Capabilities Required

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SANG (National Guard) Minimum Capabilities Required

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RSADF (Air Defense) & SMF (Strategic Missile Forces)

Minimum Capabilities Required

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RSNF (Navy) Minimum Capabilities Required

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“FAHD LINE”

Main KSA Onshore & Offshore Oil Fields

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RSAF (Air Force) Minimum Capabilities Required

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Marines (Part of RSNF) Minimum Capabilities Required

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World’s Largest Oil-Exporting Powers(2012-2013)

Source: OPEC, JODI, EIA & Internal Estimates.12

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Projected Largest MENA Economies(2014)

Source: IMF World Economic Database (April 2014)

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World’s Sunnis and Shias

85%-90% Sunni