A Societal and Economic A Societal and Economic Research and Applications Research and Applications Agenda for the North American Agenda for the North American THORPEX Programme THORPEX Programme Harold E. Brooks, Barbara G. Brown, Philip T. Harold E. Brooks, Barbara G. Brown, Philip T. Ganderton, Jeffrey K. Lazo, Brian N. Mills, Rebecca Ganderton, Jeffrey K. Lazo, Brian N. Mills, Rebecca E. Morss E. Morss STISS STISS Landshut, Germany Landshut, Germany December 8, 2006 December 8, 2006
Transcript
A Societal and Economic A Societal and Economic Research and Applications Research and Applications
Agenda for the North American Agenda for the North American THORPEX ProgrammeTHORPEX Programme
Harold E. Brooks, Barbara G. Brown, Philip T. Harold E. Brooks, Barbara G. Brown, Philip T. Ganderton, Jeffrey K. Lazo, Brian N. Mills, Rebecca Ganderton, Jeffrey K. Lazo, Brian N. Mills, Rebecca
ObjectivesObjectivesdevelop North American social science research develop North American social science research agenda for the Societal and Economic Research and agenda for the Societal and Economic Research and Applications component of THORPEX Applications component of THORPEX (NAT SERA)(NAT SERA)
outlining recommendations for potential research to outlining recommendations for potential research to be funded by appropriate agencies and organizationsbe funded by appropriate agencies and organizations
ActivitiesActivitiestheme paperstheme papersworkshop in Boulder, Colorado in August 2006 workshop in Boulder, Colorado in August 2006 writing workshopwriting workshopadditional input from social scientists, practitioners, additional input from social scientists, practitioners, and researchersand researchers
FundingFundingNCAR Opportunity Fund, NCAR Societal Impacts Program, NCAR Opportunity Fund, NCAR Societal Impacts Program, THORPEX IPO, Environment Canada, NOAA, National THORPEX IPO, Environment Canada, NOAA, National Science FoundationScience Foundation
Organizing CommitteeOrganizing CommitteeRebecca Morss, Jeff Lazo, Barb Brown, Greg Holland, Brian Rebecca Morss, Jeff Lazo, Barb Brown, Greg Holland, Brian Mills, David Parsons Mills, David Parsons -- Pam JohnsonPam Johnson
NAT SERA WebsiteNAT SERA Websitewww.sip.ucar.edu/thorpexwww.sip.ucar.edu/thorpex
NAT SERA HomeNAT SERA HomeWorkshop AgendaWorkshop AgendaWorkshop ReportWorkshop ReportTheme PapersTheme PapersBackground InformationBackground Information
ParticipantsParticipantsPresentationsPresentationsPhoto GalleryPhoto GalleryContact InformationContact InformationNorth American THORPEX HomeNorth American THORPEX Home
Theme PapersTheme Papers
Communication of UncertaintyCommunication of UncertaintyHarold E. Brooks Harold E. Brooks -- National Severe Storms Laboratory)/Forecast Research and National Severe Storms Laboratory)/Forecast Research and
Development Division, National Weather CenterDevelopment Division, National Weather CenterDan O’Hair Dan O’Hair -- Department of Communication, University of OklahomaDepartment of Communication, University of Oklahoma
UserUser--Relevant VerificationRelevant VerificationBarbara Brown Barbara Brown -- National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNational Center for Atmospheric Research
Economic Value of Weather Forecast Information andEconomic Value of Weather Forecast Information andUse of Forecast Information in Decision MakingUse of Forecast Information in Decision Making
Philip Ganderton Philip Ganderton -- Economics Department, University of New MexicoEconomics Department, University of New Mexico
Decision Support and THORPEXDecision Support and THORPEXBrian Mills, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division / AtmospheBrian Mills, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division / Atmospheric Science ric Science
and Technology Directorate. Environment Canadaand Technology Directorate. Environment Canada
Workshop ParticipantsWorkshop Participants
Mike Baldwin Mike Baldwin —— PurduePurdueHarold BrooksHarold Brooks ——National Severe Storms LaboratoryNational Severe Storms LaboratoryBarbara Brown Barbara Brown —— NCARNCARBrian W. Bush Brian W. Bush —— Los Alamos National LaboratoryLos Alamos National LaboratoryJohn John CahirCahir ——Pennsylvania State UniversityPennsylvania State UniversityBarbara Barbara CasatiCasati ——Environment CanadaEnvironment CanadaJim Jim CaugheyCaughey —— THORPEX IPO THORPEX IPO –– GenevaGenevaValentinaValentina DavydovaDavydova--BelitskayaBelitskaya —— National Met National Met Service of MexicoService of MexicoLisa Lisa deBaiedeBaie —— Environment CanadaEnvironment CanadaNicholas E. Flores Nicholas E. Flores ——University of ColoradoUniversity of ColoradoPhilip Ganderton Philip Ganderton ——University of New MexicoUniversity of New MexicoJohn Gaynor John Gaynor —— NOAANOAAKonstantineKonstantine P. P. GeorgakakosGeorgakakos ——Scripps InstitutionScripps InstitutionBob Bob GoldhammerGoldhammer —— Int’l Assoc. of Emergency Int’l Assoc. of Emergency ManagersManagersEve Gruntfest Eve Gruntfest —— NCARNCARGreg Holland Greg Holland —— NCARNCARSusan Susan JoslynJoslyn —— Psychology Psychology -- University of University of WashingtonWashingtonCody Knutson Cody Knutson —— National Drought Mitigation CenterNational Drought Mitigation CenterBenjamin L. Benjamin L. LampteyLamptey —— NCARNCAR
Jeff Lazo Jeff Lazo —— NCARNCARIrving Irving LevesonLeveson —— LevesonLeveson ConsultingConsultingWilliam Mahoney William Mahoney —— NCARNCARBrian Mills Brian Mills ——-- Environment CanadaEnvironment CanadaRebecca MorssRebecca Morss —— NCARNCARRobert O'Connor Robert O'Connor —— National Science FoundationNational Science FoundationDan O'Hair Dan O'Hair ——University of OklahomaUniversity of OklahomaDavid ParsonsDavid Parsons —— NCARNCARWalter Gillis PeacockWalter Gillis Peacock ——Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M UniversityEugene Eugene PoolmanPoolman ——South African Weather ServiceSouth African Weather ServicePaul J. Paul J. RoebberRoebber ——University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin ––MilwaukeeMilwaukeePatyPaty RomeroRomero--LankaoLankao —— NCARNCARSarah RuthSarah Ruth —— National Science FoundationNational Science FoundationMelvyn ShapiroMelvyn Shapiro —— NOAANOAADouglas A. SmithDouglas A. Smith ——Carleton UniversityCarleton UniversityAlan E. Stewart Alan E. Stewart ——UUniversity of Georgia niversity of Georgia Steven StewartSteven Stewart ——University of ArizonaUniversity of ArizonaZoltanZoltan TothToth ——NOAANOAALloyd A. Lloyd A. TreinishTreinish —— IBMIBMJorgeJorge--Luis Luis VázquezVázquez--Aguirre Aguirre —— AGROASEMEX, AGROASEMEX, S.A.S.A.Lawrence Wilson Lawrence Wilson —— Environment CanadaEnvironment Canada
Workshop ParticipantsWorkshop Participants
Background IssuesBackground Issues
concept of highconcept of high--impact weather forecastsimpact weather forecasts
a)a) Forecasts of extreme or hazardous weather eventsForecasts of extreme or hazardous weather events
b)b) Forecasts of weather conditions that historically have had a Forecasts of weather conditions that historically have had a major impact on one or more segments of societymajor impact on one or more segments of society
c)c) Weather forecasts that have a significant impact (positive or Weather forecasts that have a significant impact (positive or negative) on one or more segments of societynegative) on one or more segments of society
High-impact weather forecasts provide information that individuals or organizations can use in making decisions that mitigate significant costs or significantly enhance benefits.
Background IssuesBackground Issues
linking forecasts to value realizationlinking forecasts to value realization
decisiondecision--support systems and toolssupport systems and tools
SERA Conceptual ModelSERA Conceptual Model
Decision MakingDecision Making
issue issue understanding how users obtain forecast information, interpret iunderstanding how users obtain forecast information, interpret it, and apply it in t, and apply it in decision makingdecision making
research questionsresearch questionshow do decision makers in these diverse contexts interpret weathhow do decision makers in these diverse contexts interpret weather forecast er forecast informationinformationhow do decision makers combine forecasts with other information how do decision makers combine forecasts with other information in their decision in their decision processesprocesseswhat constrains decision makers use of current or improved forecwhat constrains decision makers use of current or improved forecast informationast information
methodsmethodsethnographic studiesethnographic studiessurveyssurveyscognitive interviews and focus groupscognitive interviews and focus groupscase studies and crosscase studies and cross--case comparisonscase comparisonscritical incident and decision analysiscritical incident and decision analysisverbal protocol analysisverbal protocol analysisdecisiondecision--making experimentsmaking experiments
CommunicationCommunication(with emphasis on uncertainty)(with emphasis on uncertainty)
issue issue forecastforecast--related decisions under uncertainty are often complex, incorporarelated decisions under uncertainty are often complex, incorporating ting information and uncertainty from multiple sourcesinformation and uncertainty from multiple sources
research questionsresearch questionshow do users interpret forecast uncertaintyhow do users interpret forecast uncertaintyhow do they respond to different forms of uncertainty communicathow do they respond to different forms of uncertainty communicationionhow do they incorporate forecast uncertainty into decisionshow do they incorporate forecast uncertainty into decisionswhat is the role of thresholds in decisions under forecast uncerwhat is the role of thresholds in decisions under forecast uncertaintytaintyhow do people’s risk perceptions and preferences interact with thow do people’s risk perceptions and preferences interact with their use of forecast heir use of forecast informationinformation
methodsmethodsin addition to those previously mentionedin addition to those previously mentionedrisk communicationrisk communicationmental modelingmental modeling
VerificationVerification(with emphasis on user(with emphasis on user--relevance)relevance)
issue issue current verification methods provide relatively little informaticurrent verification methods provide relatively little information that can help improve on that can help improve forecasts, benefit users’ decisions, or estimate forecast valueforecasts, benefit users’ decisions, or estimate forecast value
research questionsresearch questionshow to develop and test new diagnostic methods including methodshow to develop and test new diagnostic methods including methods to stratify to stratify verification results in ways meaningful to usersverification results in ways meaningful to userswhat types of verification information users could benefit fromwhat types of verification information users could benefit fromhow to communicate verification information to usershow to communicate verification information to usershow to incorporate this information into decision support systemhow to incorporate this information into decision support systems and toolss and toolswhat is the relationship between forecast quality and forecast vwhat is the relationship between forecast quality and forecast value and the role of alue and the role of useruser--relevant verification techniques in estimating valuerelevant verification techniques in estimating value
methodsmethodsinterdisciplinary collaborations among meteorologists, verificatinterdisciplinary collaborations among meteorologists, verification experts, ion experts, statisticians, social scientists, and usersstatisticians, social scientists, and usersset of case studies to conceptualize, develop, and employ userset of case studies to conceptualize, develop, and employ user--relevant verification relevant verification approaches for several different users and forecast attributes.approaches for several different users and forecast attributes.
ValuationValuation
issue issue relatively little work has been performed on the value of weatherelatively little work has been performed on the value of weather forecastsr forecasts
research questionsresearch questionswhat it the value of current forecast qualitywhat it the value of current forecast qualitywhat is the value of forecast modificationswhat is the value of forecast modificationswhat are users’ preferences among forecast modificationswhat are users’ preferences among forecast modificationswhat are the costs of the THORPEX research programwhat are the costs of the THORPEX research program
issueissuedecision support systems (DSS) are one approach to providing adddecision support systems (DSS) are one approach to providing added ed societal value from weather information but can be difficult to societal value from weather information but can be difficult to develop develop successfullysuccessfully
research questionsresearch questionshow can users incorporate THORPEXhow can users incorporate THORPEX--related forecasts into decision related forecasts into decision support systemssupport systemshow can DSS incorporate forecasts uncertainty informationhow can DSS incorporate forecasts uncertainty information
methodsmethodsdecision support decision support testbedstestbedsdeveloping best practice guidelines for assessing user needs anddeveloping best practice guidelines for assessing user needs and building building decision support toolsdecision support toolsinventory of existing decision supportinventory of existing decision support--related studies and applicationsrelated studies and applications
Project ExampleProject Example
Water resource management organizationWater resource management organizationstoring and releasing waterstoring and releasing waterselecting water sourcesselecting water sources
scheduling maintenancescheduling maintenancemanaging water for local agriculturemanaging water for local agriculture
Research foci• Examine users’ decision processes, current and potential future use of forecast-related
information, and forecast information needs.
• Explore how communicating forecast information, including uncertainty, in alternate ways affects decisions and outcomes.
• Develop, test, and implement a decision support tool to help users incorporate forecast information into their decisions
• Develop and test alternate user-relevant verification measures.
• Identify and measure value within the decision process, with different types of weather information and with/without the decision support tool.
ConclusionConclusionIntegrated research forecast systemIntegrated research forecast system
developeddeveloped--developing country issuesdeveloping country issuesstart with a few projects to build effective, sustainable mechanstart with a few projects to build effective, sustainable mechanisms to address isms to address specific regional or local weatherspecific regional or local weather--related challengesrelated challenges
OutcomesOutcomesWeb site (Web site (www.sip.ucar.edu/thorpex))Theme papersTheme papersWorkshop reportWorkshop reportBAMS PaperBAMS PaperResearch communityResearch community
“Example” for other regional implementation plans?“Example” for other regional implementation plans?
Funding Funding –– SERA “¼” of THORPEX?SERA “¼” of THORPEX?For instance: if TPARC = $X M For instance: if TPARC = $X M $X M/3 SERA Funding$X M/3 SERA Funding
if TPARC = $6M if TPARC = $6M $2M SERA Funding$2M SERA Funding
