Climate information for the wind energy industry in the
Mediterranean Region: from ENSEMBLES to MED-
CORDEX
Alessandro Dell'Aquila, ENEASandro Calmanti, ENEAMelanie Davies, IC3 Peter Schmidt, PIK
A step back: ENSEMBLES DATA (DEL 2.4)
The table shows the GCMs- 25Km RCMs combinations extracted from the ENSEMBLES archive to develop the CLIMRUN products on wind scenarios.
ERA4
0
Had
CM3Q
16
ARPE
GE
BCM
ECH
AM5-
MPI
OM
r3
MIR
OC3
.2 h
ires
Had
CM3Q
0
C4IRCA3CNRM-RM4.5DMI-HIRAM5ETHZ-CLMICTP-RegCM3KNMI-RACMO2METNO-HIRAMMETO-HC HadRM3Q0MPI-M-REMOSMHIRCAUCLM-PROMES
Global Model
Regi
onal
Mod
el
ENSEMBLES FP6 GCMs-
RCMs MATRIX
-35 -30
-25
-20
-15
-10
- 5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
ENSEMBLES domain
QuikSCAT LEVEL3 observational dataset. This dataset has a global coverage at daily frequency and a horizontal resolution of 0.5° x 0.5° (over sea).
ENSEMBLES: VALIDATION
DJF and JJA wind speed ensemble seasonal average for ENSEMBLES
RCMs ERA40 simulations.
Spread of the ENSEMBLES ERA40 RCMs simulations for the wind speed seasonal
average for DJF and JJA
ENSEMBLES RCMs 25Km ERA40 Mean JJA
ENSEMBLES RCMs 25Km ERA40 Mean DJF
ENSEMBLES RCMs 25Km ERA40 SPREAD JJA
ENSEMBLES RCMs 25Km ERA40 SPREAD DJF
ENSEMBLES: VALIDATION
Bias of the ENSEMBLES RCMs ERA40 simulations against QuikSCAT in winter and
summer periods.
RMSE of the ENSEMBLES RCMs ERA40 simulations against QuikSCAT data in winter
and summer periods.
Bias Ensembles RCMs ERA40 25km vs Quikscat JJA
Bias Ensembles RCMs ERA40 25km vs Quikscat DJF
RMSE Ensembles RCMs ERA40 25km vs Quikscat JJA
RMSE Ensembles RCMs ERA40 25km vs Quikscat DJF
ENSEMBLES: SCENARIO
A1B RCMs wind speed changes 2021-2050 vs 1961-1990; JJA
A1B RCMs wind speed changes 2021-2050 vs 1961-1990; DJF A1B GCMs wss changes 2021-2050 vs 1961-1990; DJF
A1B GCMs wss changes 2021-2050 vs 1961-1990; JJA
ENSEMBLES: Climate informationA1B RCMs wind speed changes 2021-2050 vs 1961-1990; JJA
A1B RCMs wind speed changes 2021-2050 vs 1961-1990; DJF
A1B RCMs wind speed changes 2021-2050 vs 1961-1990; JJA
A1B RCMs wind speed changes 2021-2050 vs 1961-1990; DJF
A first step forward: MED-CORDEX(preliminary analysis)
A first step forward: MED-CORDEX(preliminary analysis)
JJA ERAINT simulations
ENEA-PROTHEUS (MED-44i)
ENEA-REGCM (MED-44i)
CNRM-MED44
CNRM-MED11
Bias vs QUIKSCAT
Bias Ensembles RCMs ERA40 25km vs Quikscat JJA
Bias Ensembles RCMs ERA40 25km vs Quikscat DJF
A first step forward: MED-CORDEX(preliminary analysis)
DJF ERAINT simulations
ENEA-PROTHEUS (MED-44i)
ENEA-REGCM (MED-44i)
CNRM-MED44
CNRM-MED11
Bias vs QUIKSCAT
Bias Ensembles RCMs ERA40 25km vs Quikscat JJA
Bias Ensembles RCMs ERA40 25km vs Quikscat DJF
A first step forward: MED-CORDEX(preliminary analysis)
A matter of resolution…
CNRM: MED11-MED44; JJA
CNRM: MED11-MED44; DJF
A first step forward: MED-CORDEX(preliminary analysis)
ERAINT simulationsa )
b )
c )
d )
NORTH ADRIATIC
a )
c )
A first step forward: MED-CORDEX(preliminary analysis)
a )
b )
c )
d )
ERAINT simulations
AEGEAN SEAa )
c )
