A STUDY ON THE CORRELATION BETWEEN PRECIPITATION …ir.unimas.my/9099/1/A Study on the Correlation...

A STUDY ON THE CORRELATION BETWEEN PRECIPITATION

WITH TEMPERATURE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND

EVAPORATION BY USING R2 MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Hisyammudin bin Maseri

Master of Engineering

(Civil Engineering)

2014

__

1

I

j

j

J ,

UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA SARAWAK

Grade: _____

Please tick <..J> Final Year Project Report 0 Masters ~ PhD I I

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() HISYAMMUnIN BIN MASERI (14030208)

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APPROVAL SHEET

This project report which entitled "A Study on the Correlation between Precipitation with Temperature, Relative Humidity and Evaporation by using R2 Multiple Regression Analysis," was prepared by Hisyammudin bin Maseri (14030208) is

hereby read and approved by:

Dr. Onni Suhaiza bt Selaman Date: Project Supervisor

~~~MUlumat Akademik ""'AT~"I MALAYSIA SARAwAJ(

A STUDY ON THE CORRELATION BETWEEN PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPERATURE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND

EV APORA TION BY USING R2 MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS

HISY AMMUDIN BIN MASERI

I,

Master of Engineering

(Civil Engineering)

2014

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

In the name of Allah S.W.T., the Most Beneficent, the Most Merciful. I would like to

offer thanks to God for His grace, and then let me complete this thesis report

successfully.

I have taken efforts in this project. However, it would not have been possible without the

kind support and help of many individuals and organizations. I would like to extend my

sincere thanks to all of them.

First and foremost i would like to express my special thanks of gratitude to my

supervisor, Dr. Onni Suhaiza Binti who gave me the golden opportunity to do this

wonderful project on the topic, which also helped me in doing a lot of research and i

came to know about so many new things and i am really thankful to her. It would be

impossible for me to get this study completed without support, motivation and her

guidance.

11

Further appreciation and gratitude I would like to express to my co-supervisor, Assoc.

Prof. Dr. Nasser for his valuable suggestions to improve the quality of the study.

Secondly, I would also like to thank to my parents for his encouragement, support,

advices and helped me a lot in finalizing this thesis project within the limited time

frame.

Special thanks to all staff member from UNIMAS, particularly to those who are in the

Engineering Faculty, staff member from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage

(DID) Kota Samarahan Branches, especially to Mrs Jumaliah, and special thanks to staff

member from Meteorology Department Sarawak particularly to Mr. Raburi and Mdm

Mary Jiew for his valuable assisting.

Furthennore, I would like to thank and express feelings of indebtedness to her very

cooperative and supportive friends: Aizat, Cindy, Marina Patrick, Jason, Yennyie,

Noraida, Jude, Nurul Razarine, and Jeffry for their genuine help and support.

Finally, to all individuals who have contributed any amount of help but their names are

not mentioned in person, I would like to thank all of them very much and pray may your

reward come from the Almighty.

111

iv

ABSTRACT

Precipitation is one of the parameter in hydrological cycle and this process begins when

heat from the sun evaporates water from Earth's surface. However, evaporation is depends both

on its temperature and on the concentration of humidity. The objective of this study is to identify

the highest correlation factor R2 between precipitation with combination temperature, evaporation

and humidity in general without considering monsoon and by taking into account monsoon

aspect (North-East and South-West monsoon) at Kuching International Airport, Sibu Airport,

Bintulu Airport and Miri Airport station. Simple regression analysis and multiple regression

analysis were adopted in this research to determine the correlation factor R2 value where

precipitation as a dependent variable while temperature, humidity and evaporation as an

independent variable. There were seven relationships tested in this study: (i) P-THE, (ii) P-TH,

(iii) P-TE, (iv) P-HE, (v) P-T, (vi) P-H, and (vii) P-E. The outcome from relationship between

dependent variable of precipitation with combination dependent variable (P-THE) from the

multiple regressions analysis contributed the highest R2 value: (i) without considering monsoon

(ii) considering monsoon for all stations.

v

ABSTRAK

Taburan hujan merupakan salah satu daripada parameter dalam kitaran hidrologi dan

proses ini bermula apabila haba dari matahari menyejat air dari permukaan bumi. Walau

bagaimanapun, penyejatan adalah bergantung pada suhu dan kelembapan udara di sekililng.

Objektif kajian ini adalah untuk mengenalpasti faktor korelasi tertinggi R2 di antara hujan dengan

gabungan diantara suhu, penyejatan dan kelembapan secara (i) umum tanpa mengambil kira

faktor monsun dan (ii) mengambil kira aspek monsun (monsoon Timur laut dan monsoon Barat

Daya) di Lapangan Terbang Antarabangsa Kuching, Lapangan Terbang Sibu , Lapangan Terbang

Bintulu dan stesen Lapangan Terbang Miri sebagai stesen cerapan. Analisis regresi linear dan

analisis regresi berganda diguna pakai dalam kajian ini untuk menentukan nilai R2 di mana hujan

sebagai “dependent variable” manakala gabungan suhu, kelembapan dan penyejatan sebagai

“independent variable”. Terdapat tujuh hubungan telah diuji dalam kajian ini: (i) P-THE, (ii) P-

TH, (iii) P-TE, (iv) P-HE, (v) PT, (vi) PH, dan (vii) PE. Hasil daripada hubungan antara hujan

dengan gabungan suhu, penyejatan dan kelembapan (P-THE) menghasilkan nilai R2 tertinggi

daripada gabungan lain: (i) secara umum tanpa mengira monsun (ii) mengambil kira aspek

monsun untuk semua stesen cerapan.

vi

Table of content

Page

Acknowledgements ii

Abstract iv

Abstrak v

Table of Content vi

List of Figure x

List of Table xii

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Problem statement 2

1.3 Objective 4

1.4 Scope of work 4

1.5 Chapter outline 5

CHAPTER 2 : LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Precipitation 7

2.2 Relationship between Precipitation with Temperature 8

2.3 Relationship between Precipitation with Evaporation 11

2.4 Relationship between Precipitation with Humidity and Temperature 13

2.5 Relationship between Precipitation with Humidity and Evaporation 18

2.6 Wind 18

2.7 Regression Analysis 21

2.7.1 Simple Regression Analysis 21

vii

2.7.2 Multiple Regression Analysis 22

CHAPTER 3 : METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction 25

3.2 Study Area 27

3.3 Data Collection Procedure 28

3.4 Data Analysis 30

3.5

Correlation Analysis between the Dependent Variable (Precipitation)

with Independent Variables (Temperature, Humidity and Evaporation) 37

3.5.1 Comparison without considering Monsoon 37

3.5.2 Comparison considering Monsoon 40

3.5.3 Comparison Between Considering Monsoon and Without

Considering Monsoon 40

CHAPTER 4 : RESULT ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Introduction 41

4.2

Relationship between Precipitation with Temperature, Humidity and

Evaporation without Considering Monsoon 42

4.2.1 Results Correlation between Precipitation with Temperature,

Humidity and Evaporation in Kuching International Airport Station

(KIA) 42


Humidity and Evaporation in Sibu Airport Station 43


Humidity and Evaporation in Bintulu Airport Station 44


Humidity and Evaporation in Miri Airport Station 46

viii

4.2.5 Analysis and Discussion on the relationship between Precipitation

with Temperature, Humidity and Evaporation of Four Observation

Stations 47

4.3

Relationship between Precipitation with Temperature, Humidity and

Evaporation by Considering Monsoon. 49

4.3.1 Relationship between Precipitation with Temperature, Humidity

and Evaporation by Considering Monsoon (South-West) 51

4.3.1.1 Results Correlation between Precipitation with

Temperature, Humidity and Evaporation in Kuching

International Airport Station under South-West Monsoon 51


Temperature, Humidity and Evaporation in Sibu Airport

Station under South-West Monsoon 52


Temperature, Humidity and Evaporation in Bintulu Airport



Temperature, Humidity and Evaporation in Miri Airport


4.3.1.5 Analysis and Discussion on the relationship between

Precipitation with Temperature, Humidity and Evaporation

by considering Monsoon (South-West) of four observation

stations 56

4.3.2 Relationship between Precipitation with Temperature, Humidity

and Evaporation by Considering Monsoon (North-East) 59

ix


Temperature, Humidity and Evaporation in Kuching

International Airport Station under North-East Monsoon 59


Temperature, Humidity and Evaporation in Sibu Airport

Station under North-East Monsoon 60


Temperature, Humidity and Evaporation in Bintulu Airport



Temperature, Humidity and Evaporation in Miri Airport


4.3.2.5 Analysis and Discussion on the relationship between

Precipitation with Temperature, Humidity and Evaporation

by considering Monsoon (North-East) 64

CHAPTER 5 : CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1 Conclusion 67

5.2 Recommendation 69

REFERENCES 71

APPENDICES 80

x

List of Figure

Page

Figure 2.1 Relationship surface temperature to latitude 10

Figure 2.2 Relationship between Saturation vapour with temperature 11

Figure 2.3 Relationship between precipitation with evaporation 13

Figure 2.4 Variation in relative humidity with change in temperature 15

Figure 2.5 Climatic variables and their correlation 16

Figure 2.6 Wind Friction 19

Figure 2.7 Wind circulation at different speed 20

Figure 3.1 Flow of research methodology 26

Figure 3.2 Sarawak Airport Station 28

Figure 3.3 Sarawak Airport Map 29

Figure 3.4 Multiple Regression analysis –Option 31

Figure 3.5 Multiple Regression - Analysis activation 31

Figure 3.6 Multiple Regression Analysis (Data arrangement) 32

Figure 3.7 Function Selection in Data Analysis 33

Figure 3.8(a) Multiple Regression Analysis ( Dependent Data Input) 33

xi

Figure 3.8(b) Multiple Regression Analysis ( Independent Data Input) 34

Figure 3.9 Multiple Regression Analysis (Data Analysis) 35

Figure 3.10(a) Multiple Regression Analysis (Output- Multiple R2 and

Constant value )

36

Figure 3.10(b) Multiple Regression Analysis ( Output-Graph ) 36

Figure 4.1 Wind direction in South-West Monsoon (Sources: Urban

Stormwater management manual)

50

Figure 4.2 Wind direction in North-East Monsoon (Sources: Urban

Stormwater management manual)

50

Figure 4.3 Wind Direction during South-West monsoon at four stations 57

Figure 4.4 Wind Direction during North-East monsoon at four stations 65

xii

List of Table

Page

Table 2.1 Saturation mixing ratio 17

Table 3.1 Station inventory 29

Table 3.2 Comparison between dependent variable and independent

variable in individual station.

38

Table 3.3 Summary Comparative Multiple R2 Value for Observation

Stations

39

Table 4.1 Multiple R2 value from regression analysis for Kuching

airport

43

Table 4.2 Multiple R2 value from regression analysis for Sibu Airport 44

Table 4.3 Multiple R2 value from regression analysis for Bintulu Airport 45

Table 4.4 Multiple R2 value from regression analysis for Miri Airport 46

Table 4.5 Comparative Multiple R2 Value for Observation Stations 48


International Airport under South-West Monsoon

52

Table 4.7 Multiple R2 value from regression analysis for Sibu Airport

under South-West Monsoon

53

xiii

Table 4.8 Multiple R2 value from regression analysis for Bintulu Airport


54

Table 4.9 Multiple R2 value from regression analysis for Miri Airport


55

Table 4.10 Comparative Multiple R2 Value for Observation Stations

(South-West)

58


International Airport under North-East Monsoon

60

Table 4.12 Multiple R2 value from regression analysis for Sibu Airport

under North-East Monsoon

61

Table 4.13 Multiple R2 value from regression analysis for Bintulu Airport


62

Table 4.14 Multiple R2 value from regression analysis for Miri Airport


63

Table 4.15 Comparative Multiple R2 Value for Observation Stations

(North-East)

66

1

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction

Precipitation a one of the parameter in hydrological cycle and this process begins when

heat from the sun evaporates water from Earth's surface. Water will continue to evaporate until

the local atmosphere reaches total saturation. How much moisture the atmosphere can hold is a

function of temperature: warm air can hold more water vapour than cold air. Evaporated water

will often form into a cloud, but not all clouds lead to precipitation. Clouds which form at the

highest altitudes are often too cold for liquid water to form. A cloud will only produce

precipitation within a narrow band of temperatures where liquid water can condense and coalesce

(Kennedy, 1993)

The amount of water vapour depends on the temperature as higher temperature can

increase the rate of evaporation and thus the amount of water vapour in the air. At a given

temperature, there is a maximum amount of water vapour that air can hold and when the

2

maximum capacity is reached the process of condensation begins. Relative humidity is the ratio

of the current humidity of the air to the maximum amount of vapour air can hold at a given

temperature. It is related to the temperature. The rate of evaporation at a given place is always

dependent on the humidity of that place because if the air is already filled with water vapour, it

will not have any place to hold excess vapour and therefore, evaporation will occur at an

extremely slow rate.

1.2 Problem statement

Precipitation is one of the natural phenomena that are very important for human life. It is

important to cool the temperature of an area and also moisten the soil. Most of us are aware that

rainfall resulting from water evaporated from the earth's surface to the atmosphere and then

gathered until it is released again as rain (Ramanathan, 2001). Evaporation from the sea and

humidity in the air above the surface are two important and related aspects of the phenomena of

air sea interaction. However, evaporation is depends both on its temperature and on the

concentration of humidity.

Precipitation, temperature, evaporation and humidity are few components involve in the

hydrological cycle. These four parameters are related to each other, where the production of the

3

precipitation is depending on the evaporation, and during this process, this parameter also depend

on the surrounding temperature. However, it’s doesn’t mean that high temperature will generate

high evaporation process and vice versa, but these process is also depending on the surrounding

humidity. High humidity will decrease the evaporation rate and these factors also effected the

other three parameter and vice versa (Steadman, 1979).

However, excessive precipitation will give impact to natural systems (ecological systems,

hydrology and water resources, coastal systems) and the human society at large (including human

health, settlements, food and fibre production, industry, energy and infrastructure), thus impeding

the achievement of sustainable development (Arnell, 2004). Furthermore, precipitation will

increase the number of people living in water stressed region globally (Bate et al., 2008 and

Arnell, 2004).

Previous studies focus on the relation between single dependent and independent

paramaeter, for example: precipitation with temperature (Buffoni et al., 1999; Jahan Bakhsh et

al., 2010; Zhao and Khalil, 1993; Isaac and Stuart, 1992), temperature with humidity (Bretherton

et al., 2004; Holloway and Neelin, 2009) and humidity with evaporation (Katsaros, 2010; Kansas

Experiment, 1999). However, in this study, the researcher would like to observe whether

temperature, humidity and evaporation alone or combination of temperature, humidity and

evaporation will give effect to the precipitation itself or not.

4

1.3 Objective

The main intention of this study is to identify the correlation between precipitation with

temperature, humidity and evaporation. The objectives of this study are;

1. To identify the highest correlation factor between precipitation with temperature,

evaporation and humidity in general without considering monsoon.

2. To identify the highest correlation factor between precipitation with temperature,

evaporation and humidity by taking into account monsoon aspect.

1.4 Scope of work

In this study, precipitation (P), temperature (T), humidity (H) and evaporation (E) are

selected parameter and will use as dependent and independent variable in the analysis process.

Ten year data (precipitation, temperature, humidity and evaporation) start on year 2004 until

2013 was collected from the Meteorology Department Kuching and Kuching International

Airport (KIA), Sibu Airport, Bintulu Airport and Miri Airport as selected station. Seven

relationship will be analyse in this study : (i) P-THE, (ii) P-TH, (iii) P-TE, (iv) P-HE, (v) P-T,

(vi) P-H, and (vii) P-E. Simple regression analysis and multiple regression analysis will be

5

adopted in this research to determine the correlation factor- multiple R2. Furthermore in this

analysis, precipitation was be the dependent variable while temperature, humidity and

evaporation were be the independent variable. By using the regression analysis method highest

correlated parameter could be identified.

1.5 Chapter outline

Chapter 1 gives a general overview of the study. It mainly explains the hydrological process

where precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and evaporation are among the contributing

process and parameter. Problem statement which leads to the formulation of aim and objectives

of the study is also briefly described in the chapter.

Chapter 2 is the literature review that discussed on relationship between precipitation with

temperature, precipitation with humidity and precipitation with evaporation generally.

Furthermore, the previous study on relationship between temperature and humidity, wind

direction, and regression analysis also included.

Chapter 3 is about the methodology being used in this report. To determine the correlation, the

Regression method will used and from this method it will generate the multiple R2 as a

correlation for every relationship. The simple regression and multiple regression analysis will be

used in this study and the procedure of process to evaluate and determine the multiple R2 will be

6

shown in this section. The highest multiple R2 will determine and the comparison between

multiple relationship and single relationship to the precipitation will evaluate.

Chapter 4 is the result and analysis of the study. In this section, the result based on the

relationship (P-THE, P-TH, P-TE, P-HE, P-T, P-H, P-E) will be analysed by grouping and single

relationship by taking account on monsoon and without monsoon. From the regression analysis,

it will produce the correlation factor- multiple R2. The highest value of multiple R

2 will evaluate

base on group and single relationship. Any possible justification on the finding will justify in this

section.

Chapter 5, the final chapter, discusses the conclusion of the study. Recommendations to be

considered in future study on the topic are also highlighted in the chapter.

7

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Precipitation

Precipitation is the primary mechanism for transporting water from the atmosphere to

the surface of the earth. There are several form of precipitation such as hail, snow, sleet, and

freezing rain (Ramanathan, 2001). Precipitation is the most parameter contributed to the

flood, runoff, and landslide. Moreover, amounts of precipitation can vary by location. For

example, deserts in Nevada have an average less than an inch of total precipitation per year.

According to the data from the Malaysia Meteorological Department, Northern and East

Coast areas have received rainfall more than 60 percent below the average. For Central of

Peninsular were received rainfall amount over average.

Furthermore, in Sabah and Sarawak recorded, almost all areas received rainfall

amount between 20 percent and 60 percent below average, except Kapit division.

Nevertheless, in Sarawak, most areas have experienced dry condition, except Kapit division

which have normal weather conditions. Base on finding from Malaysia Meteorological

Department, Samarahan and Bintulu Divisions received a distribution of rainfall less than 60

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