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3rd PV Fab Managers Forum

9 March 2009 - Dresden, Germany

Would and ITRS-type PVroadmap make sense for the

industry?

Dr. Christopher CaseThe Linde Group

A supply chain technology roadmap

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All roadmaps are wrong some roadmaps are useful

Discussion itemsA bit of roadmap history

Roadmapping and innovation

The International Roadmap forSemiconductors (ITRS)

PV the parallel universe

Gases and chemical challenges

Supply chain roadmap straw man

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Roadmap(ping) history

Developed and first used in the 1970s byMotorola

By 1980 - in common use by Motorola, TI,

Intel and Japanese firms such as Hitachiand Toshiba

Early Motorola product roadmap

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Generic roadmap

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The ITRS sponsors and objective

Sponsored by the five leading chipmanufacturing regions:

Europe, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the United

States Objective:

ensure cost-effective advancements in the

performance of the integrated circuit and theproducts that employ such devices, continuingthe health and success of the industry

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ITRS participation demographics

Over 1300 volunteer participants

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ITRS methodology

ITRS methodology

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ITRS 2008 Winter Conference 9 December 2008 Seoul. ROK

2008 Barrier/Nucleation/Resistivity

ALD barrier processes and metal capping layers for Cu arelagging in introduction

Resistivity increases due to scattering and impact of liners

No known practical solutions

1.92.12.42.62.93.33.74.34.8Barrier cladding thickness

Metal 1 (nm)

5.585.24.834.534.304.083.83.633.51Conductor effective resistivity

(-cm) Cu Metal 1

252832364045525968MPU/ASIC Metal 1 Pitch

(nm)(contacted)

201520142013201220112010200920082007Year of Production

0.91.01.11.21.3`1.51.7Barrier cladding thickness

Metal 1 (nm)

9.848.518.197.346.76.336.01Conductor effective resistivity

(-cm) Cu Metal 1

11131416182022MPU/ASIC Metal 1Pitch(nm)(contacted)

2022202120202019201820172016Year of Production

Courtesy: C Case, presentation

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Roadmap challenges

Overcoming red brick wall Path dependency: how to balance on-and off-roadmap

innovation Caution of becoming too unwieldy and prescriptive Roadmap may not be the best metaphor - implies

certainty Maintaining voluntary participation Increasing cost of roadmapping

Tends to emphasize incremental innovation Participation mix between suppliers and regions mixed

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Why is the roadmap successful?

Roadmap has adapted and evolved along with the industry

it serves. Driven by common purpose Technology specific but adaptable

Process is public

Collaborative Organised

Strong industry commitment ensures that it is kept up-to-date and reflects the most complete collective knowledge oftechnology needs.

Healthy beat-the-Roadmap competitive behavior helpsreinforce success.

Evolves with the industry now includes ESH and emergingmaterials

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Semiconductor innovation

ITRS roadmap emerged from the recognition thatthe productivity curve, known as Moores Lawcould only be maintained with sustainedtechnology efforts

Often offered as a model or template for otherroadmap efforts

Semiconductor technology innovation is usuallycharacterized as being evolutionary

Roadmapping serves this type of organizedinnovation well Collecting a great amount of knowledge in great

amount of detail

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PV the parallel universe

Similar technology age Crystalline and thin film improvements

evolutionary

Productivity enhancements from toolsuppliers and automation

20% + CAGR

Consortia and university technology pipeline

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No materials roadmap

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Supply Chain challenges order of success

Semiconductor success, roadmap driven

Flat panel displays success, no roadmap,leveraged learning from semiconductor

MEMS sufficient, not roadmap driven

Solid state lighting entering scaling phasewhich will challenge suppliers

Printable electronics - entering scalingphase which will challenge suppliers

Where can we adapt existing learning andstandards to PV?

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PV Supply Chain Roadmap Opportunities

Bulk solar cell fabrication or thin film PV cell fabrication

Chemical and gas general specifications Defect specifications

Purity specifications

Chemical hazardsUtilization

Silicon and polysilicon supply

Wafer manufacturing and slicing Substrate and cover glass specifications

TCO

Module assembly and balance of systems

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Silane demand forecast

Total PV Market Silane Demand

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

S

ilaneMarket(TPA)

C-Si TFS

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Key gases

typical supply modes

0.5% in H2 blend supplied in cylinders

On-site blending from high purity sourceDopants

On-site generator with liquid N2 back upNitrogen

On-site generator (Natural gas based)with compressed or liquid H2 backup

Hydrogen

NF3: 4000kg / 8000kg ISO modulesFluorine: On-site F2 generator

Cleaning gas

3000kg / 6000kg ISO modules

Pipeline to local production for >1GWSilane

Supply Mode for large scale (>350 MW)Gas

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Key gases

critical planning considerations

Fluorine

Helium

Dopants

Nitrogen

Hydrogen

NF3

Silane

Fab Ramp

Implications

Space

Required

Lead timeGlobal

Supply

Availability

SafetyGas

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Thin film silicon evolution of criticalmaterial consumption and supply modes

65MW 330MW 660MW 1,000MW

900

Bulk liquid (3-6mths)

4,000

Small N2 gen. (9-12mths)

8,000

Large N2 gen. (12-18mths)

12,000

300

Tube trailers / Small SMR

1,400

Medium SMR

2,700

Large SMR

4,000

50

ISO (6T)

250

Dedicated small scale prod.

(~24 months)

500

Dedicated small scale prod.

(~24 months)

750

64

NF3 ISO (8T)

Small on-site F2

320

Modular on-site F2

640

Modular on-site F2

1,025

NM3/hr

N2

Mode

NM3/hr

H2

Mode

T/yr

SiH4

Mode

T/yr

CleaningGas

Mode

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Crystalline silicon evolution of criticalmaterial consumption and supply modes

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Dopant mixtures - cylinder delivery

logistics are an issue for larger fabs

Typical delivery is in cylinders as 0.5%

PH3 or TMB mixtures in H2

65 MWp > 400 cylinders / yr

1GWp > 6,000 cylinders / yr

On-site blending with H2 reduces

cylinder handling and logistics

1GWp < 40 cylinders / yr

Blender

Blender

Hydrogen gas feed

100% dopant gas cabinet

Mixer

BufferChamber

PH3

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Key gases typical purities

99.9997%Inert gas for sputterArgon Ar (Nm3/yr)

99.97%

99.9998%

99.5%

99.999%

99.999%

99.9%

99.9997%

Purity

Active layer Si

deposition

Hydrogen H2 (Nm3/hr)

Pump purge andchamber vent

Nitrogen N2(Nm3/hr)

p-dopantTMB 0.5% in H2 (Nm3/yr)

n-dopantPH3 0.5% in H2 (Nm3/yr)

Co-dopantMethane CH4 (Nm3/yr)

Chamber cleanNitrogen trifluoride NF3(kg/yr)

Active layer Sideposition

Silane SiH4 (kg/yr)

RoleGas

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ITRS 2008 Update April, Konigswinter, Germany

Production Ramp-up Model and Technology Cycle Timing

Volume(P

arts/Month

)

1K

10K

100K

Months0-24

1M

10M

100M

Alpha

Tool

12 24-12

Development Production

Beta

Tool

Production

Tool

First

Conf.Papers

First TwoCompanies

ReachingProduction Volume(Wafers/Month)

2

20

200

2K

20K

200K

Source: 2005 ITRS - Exec. Summary Fig 3

Fig 3 2008 - Unchanged

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Summary - materials roadmap straw man

To ensure

lowest cost per watt availability and security of supply safety best usage of industry resources

Roadmap technical specifications including purity utilization per wafer/substrate delivery and packaging technology

new material requirements for TCO sustainability metrics GWP potential, manufacturingenergy

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All roadmaps are wrong

a photovoltaic materials supplychain roadmap would be useful

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25The content of this presentation is confidential and should not be distributed to a third party without the prior authorization of Linde

Linde provides essential infrastructure and materials forthe global photovoltaic industry

The Linde Group is a leading gases and engineering company with almost 52,000 employees working in around

100 countries worldwide. In FY2008 it achieved sales of EUR 12.7 billion.

In photovoltaics capabilities include: Global supply of critical materials and services

Innovation in gas and chemical based solutions

Turnkey engineering

Lowering emissions

Enabling environmentally sustainable manufacturing

Reducing manufacturing costs and improving yields

Lindes PV customer experience is leading with crystalline and

thin film Si customers in every major manufacturing geography.

36OEM C

610OEM B

814OEM A

Linde totalWW totalTF Line supplier