Transitioning from Drainage to Urban Water Cycle Management

A Systems Framework of Big Data for Analysis of Policy and StrategyPeter Coombes & Michael Barry

IntroductionSystems Framework methodologies developed over the last two decadesBottom up systems analysis to inform whole of Society strategy and policy development including trade-offsIncluded in over 120 peer reviewed publications and government reportsExtensively peer reviewed (including a 3 month open book process during Living Victoria policy)This is the first publication focused solely to the Systems Framework

OverviewInfluenced by the thinking of:Lovelock: Elements of biosphere are interconnected and dynamicCarson: Natural systems altered by human behaviourForester: Earths dynamic systems include human behavioursMeadows: Cumulative ecosystem and economic responses to exponential human growthIPCC: Earth systems and human welfare impacted by climateNash: Game Theory

Multiple linked scales of behaviour

Overview

Big Data Climate, topography, population, waterways

Land uses, infrastructure, planning schemes, demography

Multiple linked layers of spatial and temporal information

Local ScaleSimulates local behaviours of people, land uses, buildings and ecology at 6 minute time steps. Informed by big data layers. Water, wastewater, stormwater, energy, economics, health.

Local ScaleUses behavioural water use drivers, base water year (not average demands) calibrated to local observations. Feedback loops with regional scale (water restrictions and prices)

Local calibration to base water yearsTransition (zone) scaleCombine water use, wastewater flows, stormwater runoff, financial transactions and energy use from local scalesUsing town planning projections, climate sequences and populationMonte Carlo simulationsOutputs of Daily Sequences of Water Demands, Wastewater Flows, Stormwater Runoff, Energy Demands and Finances

Transition (zone) scaleZones or sub-catchments based on town planning, hydrology, topography, climate, waterways and infrastructure

Network or Catchment ScaleZone scale results input to nodes at regional scale.

Combines water, wastewater, stormwater and energy infrastructure networks with waterways and catchments.

Daily operational simulations of multiple replicates

Regional ScaleIncludes regional processes of policy (water restrictions), economic drivers (prices, incentives), climate change and environmental regulations (environmental flows, WQ). Hindcasting of model results across periods of known performance provides certainty

Regional ScaleHindcasting across all linked scales and disciplines (not separate) allows confidence in determination of design, strategy and policy trade-offsUnique hindcasting of linked financial and economic processes. Includes optimisation with game theory methods to maximise economic welfare

Network or Catchment ScaleMultiples replicates of system behaviours allows understanding of frequency, percentiles and probability of behaviours.For example Water Demands and Wastewater flows for three options:ConventionalPER: rainwater and stormwater harvestingFlow Systems: Third pipe wastewater reuse

Regional ScaleIncludes cumulative financial transactions across all scales accounts for costs of providing services, and revenue generated by services.New Keynesian economics: macroeconomics underpinned by microeconomic detail.Example; spatial NPV for Greater Sydney

Regional ScaleAccounts for linked cumulative processes of providing services or environmental impacts.Example: Spatial patterns of greenhouse gas emissions for Melbourne

InsightsSystems Framework links actions across scales for householders, firms, commonwealth, state and local governments, and bulk and retail authorities Combines the water cycle with environment, economic, energy, climate and infrastructure processes from the bottom up to frame policy. Advances in computing power permit this quantum process to be driven by continuous simulationA transition from separate reductionist methods to expansive analysis of systemsProvides understanding of cumulative impacts and trade-offs Developing open source and web-enabled capability