1q Sloan Trends, Inc.
www.sloantrend.com 760-741-9611
Dr. A. Elizabeth Sloan Canola Council of Canada
Go for the Gold Annual Meeting Vancouver, B.C. March 14-15, 2013
A Taste of Tomorrow Food & Nutrition Consumer Trends 2013+
Douglas Jung • Order of Canada, Order B.C.
• 1st Canadian Asian Member
Parliament
• Canada Ambassador to U.N.
• Chinese = Canadian Citizens, Right to Vote
• 401 Burrard Street , Fed. Gov’t “Green” Building Vancouver
“I am the Canadian Delegate” – Book & BBC Special
My Uncle Doug
Product Hot Spots
Lifestyle Changes
The New Health
1 2
3 4 Transparency
SymphonyIRI, Pacesetter Report, Times & Trends, 4/12
Claims: Best-selling New Foods/Bev - 4/12 Health Claims Top $ Foods/Bev
U.S. Best-Selling Food/Bev: Benefits
% Restaurant Inspired: Best-Seller New Food/Bev
Avg. 17% Higher in Year One Sales
$110M Year 1 Sales
Canada: Consumer New Product Awards
• Special K Low Fat Granola • Minute Maid Real Fruit Bev • Special K Crisps • Catelli Smart Side Dishes • IOGO Greko • Dempster’s Smooth Multi-grain (16) • Astro Zero SuperBerry Yogurt • MiO Liquid Water • Wheat Thins, Sweet Potato • Smuckers Double Fruit Simple Blends
Healthy
Gourmet • Ristorante Pepperoni Pesto • Folgers Gourmet K Cups • Highline Flame Savours
Flavor /Fun • Hidden Valley Ranch Cheese Dressing • Aylmer Accents Pepper/Garlic • Folgers Gourmet K Cups • SKO Minis • Nestles Drumstick Bigger Nugget
• Philadelphia Cooking Crème • Folgers Gourmet K Cups • Kraft Habanero Shredded Cheese
Convenience
• Almond Fresh Coconut • Schneiders Country Natural Sausage
Natural
1. BrandSpark Canadian Shopper Study, 2013; `102,980 Canadian Grocery Shoppers
1.The Hartman Group, Eating by the Numbers, 2011
31M U.S. Foodies1
Savoring – a more sophisticated culinary food experience – one defined by
freshness, distinctive flavors, foodie narratives, storytelling, etc.1
Top 10 Eating Occasions3
When Eat Alone, Eat More Savoring 33% Snacking Alone Savoring1
New Upscale “Savoring” Eating Experience
1. Rice 2. Chinese Food 3. Salads 4. Eggs 5. Beans
6. Hamburger 7. Potatoes 8. Vegetables 9. Sweets 10.Meat Cuts
Top 10 Savoring Demands
ACF Chefs: Hot for Kids Menu 20132
Dramatic Shift U.S. Flavor Profile 2 Years
1.Technomic, American Express Market Brief, June 2011; 2. Culinary Visions Panel, 2012;
Consumers Favorite Flavors 20112 Consumers Favorite Flavors 20091
4% 13%
23% 36% 37%
44% 46% 47%
51% 74%
BitterSourSalty
FruityHerbalTangy
SmokySweetSpciy
Grilled
Foodies Higher Preference:
Sour, Bitter, Umami3 • Gourmet Kids’ Cuisine #6 • Ethnic Ethnic-inspired Kids Dishes #9
44% Adult Eating is Alone, Not Just Singles1
1. Hartman, Eating by the Numbers, ‘11; 2.SymphonyIRI, Times & Trends, 3/’12; 3. Nielsen//Perishables Group, Drivers Fresh Food Growth, 11/’12,
Adult Eating Alone Occasions Savoring 35%
Eat Alone, More Likely Opt Fresh/Refrigerated vs. Frozen
Chef/Restaurant Branded Meal1
Top 10 Growth Categories Unit Sales 2011 vs. 2010 (FDMxC, Ex-Walmart)2
By 2015 Fresh = 62% Grocery Store Sales4
Singletons – Live Alones Canada’s Fastest Growing
Demographic
Demise of the Family Meal: Refocus Target Kid-Specific Meals, Better-for-You
Empty Nesters #1 Household Unit, #2 - 93M Singles
1. Hartman, Eating by the Numbers, 2011
Family Eating Occasions adults only, no kids < 18
72% Immediate vs. Pre-Planned Consumption • 11% all adult eating occasions, food eaten within 1 hour of
purchase • 57% of immediate consumption occasions – all food/drinks
sourced from a supermarket - #1
Only 28% of Family Eating Occasions Include Kids
35%
Drive Restaurants, #1 Spend 55-641 50+ Basic 4, 72% Entrée & Sides
Most Concerned Health Home, but Not Restaurants
1. NRA, 1/13; 2. NPD Group/CREST, 1/13; 3. NASFT, 11/12; 4. Cooking Enthusiasts - US – 10/12; 5. Packaged Facts, How We Eat Rpt. 7/2012
Specialty Food
Use 65+ Up 8 Pt. 20123
50+ Last Generation Raised Classic European Cooking
Ref. 2
Fresh Store Meals vs. Frozen
Millennials Generation X
Baby Boomers
Swing Generation/ World War II
Microwaving 51 43 42 58
What type of cooking method did you use most often?
Gen Y Big Home Dinner Op, Restaurant Visits Fall 1/Week Per Capita Past 5 Yrs1
#1 buyer Chilled Meals
Cooked More 2012 vs. 20112 Major Cut Back at Dinner Time1 Prepared Ethnic Food at Home >
6+ times/mo3
Freshness Importance of Attribute to 18-24
80% 85% 90% 95% 100%
Very Impt All
Very Impt 18-24
TRENDS IN LAST NIGHT’S DINNER PREPARATION GROUP4
Meal Preparers
At Home From Scratch
At Home Pre-Packaged/ Some
Preparation
1994
2005
2009
2011 1994
2005
2009
2011
18-34 Years 42 25 41 47 9 18 29 27
1. NPD/CREST, 2013; 2. FMI, Power of Meat, 3. Mintel, Ethnic Food, 2012; 4. 2012 Gallup Study of Dinner; 4. Technomic Healthy Consumer Trend ‘12
18-24 Age 18% 25-34 19% 35-44 13% 45-54 12% 55-64 9% 65+ 7%
Gen Y Cooks Differently, Helpers Sauces
1. Hartman Group, Reimagining Convenience Foods, 2010; 2 Mintel, Cooking Sauces & Marinades – US – 4/11
Products Used in Past Year?1 To make rest-style food at home, I want this help:1
Meal Preparers Want Something Different Dinner Nightly, Age 50+
9-12 Family Meal Repertoire 2
Using Cooking/Simmer Sauces Add to Meat/Veg
Total 22
18-24 24
25-34 25
35-44 27
45-54 19
55-64 22
65+ 13
Product Hot Spots! 2 Breakfast, Snacks = Strong Growth
Fastest Growing in Eatings → 2018
1. The NPD Group, “A Look into the Future of Eating , 5/11
In-home or carried from home situations, excludes purchased and consumed away-from- home
By Generation, Highest
Increase in Servings over Next Decade
Salty/savory snacks Gen Y +44%
Easy meals Gen Y +42%
Center of plate proteins Gen Y +22%
Sweet snacks/desserts Gen Y +34%
Heat and eat breakfasts Gen Z +4%
% Change in Eatings Food Groups U.S.
(F2018 vs. 2008) Canada
(F2020 vs. 2010) Involved Breakfast Foods 10.4 11.9 Heat/ Eat Breakfast Foods 13.4 -1.5
Simple Breakfast Foods 12.5 5.5 Combination Dishes 12.1 2.6 Centre of Plate Proteins 15.1 7.7 Heat and Eat Entrees 13.4 11.4 Quick Assembly Lunches 10.1 6.5 Warm Sides 12.7 8.9 Salads 11.7 1.8 Side Dish Breads 10.5 4.9 Easy Meals 16.0 16.6 Salty/Savory Snacks 16.1 20.8 Sweet Snacks/Desserts 14.0 3.9 Forecast pop. growth: 10.1% 6.2%
Growing faster than population by at least 3 points Growing faster than population by less than 3 points
Ref#1
C-Store Foodservice $27B, +13%
C-Stores, Drug, Take-from-Home
#1 Reason Go C-Store Not Gas, Drinks; Lunch Fastest Growing Daypart
Drug Stores: 6 in 10 Top Sellers Food, 2 Refrig.
31% Buy Fresh Prepared Food Drug Store 2012
Take-from-Home Drinks, Snacks, Breakfast
Convenience Store News, 1/2012
Progressive Breakfast Big Op, Culinary Shift
1. Technomic, Consumer Breakfast Trend Rpt.,‘11; 2. NPD Group, 2013; 3. Dataessential, 1/20132012; 4. 2011 Gallup Study of Breakfast
ACF Chefs Hot ’13 Top Growing Breakfast Items Restaurants 20123
• Flatbread • Parfait • Brioche French toast • Chilaquiles • Pecan/buttermilk waffle • Burrito • Oatmeal
Hi Protein Breakfast Foods, Super Stars Weight, Energy, Full
Breakfast Pizza
20% Bring Breakfast from home, 10% Kids to School, 20% Eat in Car4
Breakfast Cubano Chicken, Seafood
Breakfast in deli =16% 2012
Technomic 2012 The Snacking Occasion Consumer Trend Report
Snacking More Often 2 yrs.
Drinks Growing Part Snacks
Morning, Afternoon Prime Time
Healthy & Immediate Consumption
Snacks: Canada 2nd Only to Dinner
Protein Claim +28% Gain 2011
Finger Foods, More About the Dip What’s Hot 2013?
Bocadillos
Pupusas
1. NRA/ACF “What’s Hot ?, 10/2012; 2. Technomic, Flavor Trend Report, 2011;3. SymphonyIRI, SnaxPo, 3/2012; Mintel, Nutrition & Energy Bars – US – 2/2012
Willing Pay More Dipping Sauce:
Ch. Covered Salted Snacks
Dried Meat Snacks
Rfg. Appetizers/Snack Roll
HH Non-Breakfast Entrees
Fz. Appetizers/Snack Rolls
+8.6%
+6.0%
+5.9%
+3.8%
+3.3%
Top 5 Growth 2012 ( Vol. Growth)0.1%
39% Entertained More at Home ’12 Half Monthly, 1 in 5 Weekly, Gen Y #11
36% Buy Gourmet Foods to Entertain3 1 in 3 Order Platters Monthly4 54% Snack More Social Occassion2
1. SymphonyIRI, SnaxPo Keynote, 3/2011; 2. Roper GfK, 2009; 3. NAFST, 2010; 4. Technomic, Partier Off Premise Report 2010
% adults who did activity last time they entertained at home2:
18% Pay More Gourmet Snacks1 →
Salty Snacks
15%
Crackers 18%
Chocolate Candy 24%
Cookies 23%
Non-Chocolate
Candy 20%
Consumer Catering Op $28B Rest. 4X retail, $19B vs. $4B1
27% Use Take-out3
The New Health 3 Happy Meals $3.2B 2011
• Involves Foods, Ingredients, Emotion, Social Concern • More Positive > Negative • It’s personal
• Major Pillars:
– Freshness – Healthy Add-ins – Avoidance – Quality – Natural, Real, Close to Farm – Ethnical, Sustainable, Humane
Chose Restaurant Healthy Menu 2
Interest Health Doubled vs. ‘092
1. Sloan Trends, 2012; 2. Technomic, Generational Consumer Trend Rpt. 2012;
Creating a Healthy Aura: Deliver Against Major Pillars, No Longer Just Avoidance
Nutrition Hot 2013 Restaurants
1. NRA, 2013 Forecast; 2. NRA What’s Hot for 2013 Chef’s Survey, 10/2012 ; 1.Canadian Restaurant &Foodservices Assn. 2012 Canadian Chef Survey; 2.National Restaurant Assn., 2011 Forecast. What’s Hot QQSR Chef Survey
Ref. #1 Fast Food Operators Hot
Trends for 2013
New Menu Items 2013
Chef’s Canada: Top 10 Hot Trends
1. Locally produced dishes 2. Sustainability 3. Gluten-free 4. Farm/estate branded 5. Simplicity / back-to-basics 6. Nutrition/health, low-fat, red. sodium, antioxidants, high fiber 7. Ethnic street food appetizers 8. Food trucks 9. Artisanal cheeses 10. Bite-size / mini-desserts
1. Children’s nutrition 2. Fewer choices on the menu 3. Hyper-local sourcing, gardens 4. 5 ingredients or less 5. Healthy kids’ meals
Up & Comers: Culinary Themes1
Real Lemon Lemonade
38% 36% 36% 35%
31% 35%
23% 32%
Low trans-fatLow salt
Low saturated fatLowfat
Low cholesterolLow calorieLow sugar
Low carb
89% 77%
68% 64% 63% 62%
57% 51%
24%
FreshHomemade
LocalPremium
NaturalSeasonal
UnprocessedOrganic
Gluten-free
Traditional Low in Claims Restaurants Shift to → Overall Positive Health Halo
1. Technomic, The Comprehensive Guide to Foodservice Consumers: N. Am.Study; 7/2012; Technomic, Consumer Healthy Trend Report, 2012
At a restaurant, I am more likely to purchase food or beverage described as…1
Traditional Claims
Health-Halo Claims
Real Food Nutrition - Get Nutrients/Health Benefits Naturally Preferred to Fortified
1. 2011 Gallup Study of Nutrient Knowledge & Consumption, U.S. 2011; Innova Market Insights, 2012; 3. Brandspark, Consumer Survey, 2011
92%
69%
53%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Foods Naturally Rich-inSources
Vit/Min Supplement Daily
Fortified/enriched Foods
Importance of Nutrition Sources1
42% Strong Effort Serve Foods Naturally Rich-in Dinner U.S. +6% 2 Yrs1
9 on 10 Canada Prefer Buy Products More Real Food Ingredients3
Unilever Creates New Consortium to Identify Most Nutrient Rich Varietals of
Everyday Plant –based Foods
Canada New Food/Bev Naturally Rich-in Claim 2009-20111
Interest Buying Food/Drink for Health Extremely or very interested in buying or using foods/drinks that offer the following benefits
2010 Global
2010 Canada
Reducing risk of cancer 71% 65%
Boosting the Immune System 70% 65% Healthy Heart/Circulatory System 70% 62%
Retaining Mental Sharpness with Aging 70% 60%
Healthy/Strong Bones 69% 65%
Maintaining Good Eyesight 69% 62%
Healthy/Flexible Joints 68% 58%
Long Lasting Mental Energy 68% 57%
Improved Memory 67% 61% Improved Alertness/Concentration 67% 61%
Sleep 67% 61%
Believe Dietary changes can treat or avoid
2010 Global
2010 Canada
Overweight/Obesity 39% 56%
High Blood Glucose 36% 53%
High Cholesterol 40% 52%
Diabetes 37% 52%
Tiredness/Lack of Energy 35% 51%
Gastrointestinal 38% 51%
Lack of Hydration 34% 51%
Cardiovascular Disease 35% 50%
Allergies 39% 50%
Anemia 35% 50%
1. Health Focus International, 2010
Health Conditions: Ext/Very Concerned
Retaining mental sharpness as I age 48%
Stress 41% Cancer 41%
Tiredness, lack of energy 40%
Cardiovascular/heart disease 38%
Eye health 37% Overweight/obesity for
myself 35%
Joint health problems 34% Bone health/strength 34% Muscle health/muscle
tone 33%
Cancer
Retaining mental sharpness as I age
Eye Health
Cardio-vascular disease
Bone health/strength
Stress
Tiredness/lack of energy
Joint health
Gastro-intestinal
High cholesterol
Retaining mental sharpness as I age 53%
Stress 54% Cancer 62%
Tiredness, lack of energy 56%
Cardiovascular/heart disease 61%
Eye health 60% Overweight/obesity for
myself 46%
Joint health problems 51% Bone health/strength 63% Muscle health/muscle
tone 53%
Canada USA Global
1. Health Focus International 2010
Gluten-Free Peaked 2012
53% Who Bought Gluten-Free
Did not Know the Product was Gluten-Free2
1. Packaged Facts, Gluten-Free Foods/Bev, 10/2012; 2.; Hartman Group, 2011
Fall Back to Celiac True Intolerance Levels
Scanner Data $4.9B 2011
GF Foods: Consumer Perceptions & Opinions
26%
13%
11%
55%
24%
20%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Overpriced
Label Gimmick
Fad
2012 2010
Local & Some Ethical Foods Perceived as Healthier, Buying More
Technomic: The Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report, 2012; 2011Gallup Study of Nutrition/Food Consumption, Technomic, Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Rpt., 2012
Foods that are ___ are healthier:
72% Humane Treatment Important Shop for Food 41% Humane Treatment Imp. Restaurant Food 52% Bought Fairtrade Coffee or Tea Last Year 44% Farm-Raised Important Shop for Food 36% Bought Fairtrade Chocolate 27% Bought Wild Caught Fish 20% Cage-free, Humane-raised Eggs 19% Grass-fed Beef 19% Vegetarian Foods
Canada – Locavore Movement Remained Steady Last 3 years – 64% Shoppers
Consciously Trying to Buy Local Foods
Tout “Made In Canada” When Possible Concern Safety Products: “Extremely”
Deloitte, Consumer Product Safety, 2011;
Concern Safety Products Other Countries: “Extremely”
• IOGO 100% Owned Canadian Dairy Farmer Coop
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Kids & Cholesterol Kids & Blood Pressure
Kids & Dibetes Kids & Obesity
1st Generation Obese Canadian Kids
1. Healthy Canada, 2. U.S. Am. Acad. Pediatrics; 3. Sloan Trends, 2012
Sloan Trends TrendSense™ Consumer
Commercialization
Heart Healthy Kids Foods/Bev?
• Calcium → age 3, obesity age 6
• Blood Pressure → age 3
• Lipid Panel → age 2 < 8
• Counseling on Weight, 1st Time
• AAP Treat Chol. In Kids Statins
AHA, AAP, NIH - monitor:
Commercialization- Level 2
• 26% obese/overweight • 100,000 kids < 19, 6.7 strokes • 2% high blood pressure • High waist circumference 3X risk heart
disease, growing issue Canadian kids • Serious decline body composition 6-19 • 1/3 kids 4-9 low milk servings • 7 in 100 kids 4-8 low Fruit/veggies • 15% teens smoke
Risk Factors in Canadian Children
Darden Restaurants No Soda & Fries
Kid’s Menus
Chick-Fil-A Kid’s Meals Un-breaded Chicken
Transparency
Free of Gluten and Allergens
Free of Gluten and can track where ingredients
come from via QR code on front
Comes from ingredients free of Hormones and Antibiotic as well as Gluten Free and Kosher
Free Range chickens, no antibiotics, vegetarian
diet fed, no added hormones or fillers
rBST free Dairy used, No thickeners, Gluten
Free, No or Low Sugar
Peanut Free, Gluten Free, Vegan, Non
GMO, No hydrogenated oils
Transparency 4
GMO Didn’t Die with Prop 37: US 17% Food Shoppers “Serious Health Hazard”
FMI, U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends ’11; Sloan Trends Inc. 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12Year
Genetically Modified Organism (GMO)
Medical Threshold
Medical/Nutrition
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12Year
Genetically Modified Organism (GMO)
Consumer
Popularization
Commercialization – Level 1
30 States Proposed Bills or Activity to Label GMOs – Talk Walmart Won’t Oppose Wash ∙ Oregon ∙ RI ∙ VT ∙ VA ∙ OR ∙ FL ∙ AZ ∙CO ∙ CT ∙ MI ∙
MN ∙ HI ∙ NJ ∙ NY ∙ MA ∙ NC ∙ NM (failed)
Whole Foods Goes No GMO 2013
• One Degree Organic – QR Code Trace Source of Bread and Flour
• DNA Traceable Meat, 92% Canadians Want • 90% imp. To know if the Meat was from Canada
Certified Sustainable Seafood Certified Non
GMO and Fair Trade,
Sweetened with Stevia
Certified Non GMO, 100% Organic, No Sugar Added
Non GMO Beverage
Non GMO, Organic Non GMO, Natural
Big Worry World’s Top Chain Restaurants = Heavy Fryers1
6 in 10 Avoiders Would Buy Fries If Made with Better-for-You Oil or Had 25% Less Fat
1. Technomic, Consumer Trend Fried Food Report, 2011; 2. Technomic Top 500 Restaurant Chain Restaurant Report, 4/2012; 3. Dow
60%
59%
58%
47%
37%
61%
62%
62%
50%
39%
45%
54%
52%
40%
53%
0% 50% 100%
Baked instead of fried
Prepard in better-for-you cooking oil
Had 25% less fat
Came in smaller 100-calorie portions
Served fresh from thefryer
Definitely/probably would influence me to buy French Fries at a Restaurant 3
Base Fried Food CurtailersFried Food Avoiders
French Fry Restaurant Orders Fall 7 Yrs
Bundled/Combo Meal Orders: - 12% Last 5 Yrs: - 1 B Orders, Soda, Fries Top Items Diners Want Replaced 1
051015202530354045505560
0123456789
101112
80/8
182
/83
84/8
586
/87
88/8
990
/91
92/9
394
/95
96/9
798
/99
00/0
102
/03
04/0
506
/07
08/0
910
/11
12/1
3
Soyb
ean
Oil
(Pou
nds/
Pers
on)
Vege
tabl
e O
ils o
ther
than
Soy
bean
Oil
(Pou
nds/
Pers
on)
Trans-fat labelling Decline of ph soy
The Japanese eat very little fat and suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or
Americans.
The French eat a lot of fat and also suffer fewer
heart attacks than the British or Americans.
The Japanese drink very little red wine and
suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or
Americans.
Too much sake
The Italians drink excessive amounts of
red wine and also suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans.
Way too much red wine!
The Germans drink a lot of beers and eat lots of
sausages and fats and suffer fewer heart attacks
than the British or Americans.
CONCLUSION:
Eat and drink what you like.
Speaking English
is apparently what kills you.
www.sloantrend.com
FOOD TECHNOLOGY Shopping the Perimeter – 1/13 Nuts Deliver Nutrition, Functionality, and Taste – 12/12 Sauces Deliver Consumer Meal Solutions – 11/12 Reshaping Restaurant Strategies – 10/11 Dairy Innovations – 9/12 Marrying Taste & Health – 8/12 Notable Niches – 7/12 NUTRACEUTICALS WORLD Gluten-Free – 12/12 Vitamins – 11/12 Mental Healthy Aging – 9/12 Form Fitting – 8/12 Monounsaturated Fatty Acids or MUFAs – 6/12 Digestive Regularity – 5/12 Cocoa Flavonols – 4/12 Magnesium – 1/12
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Dr. A. Elizabeth Sloan
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