A time for choice: stewardship of the Garden Route
Christo Fabricius
Uncertain times
Complex systems
• Social, political, economic, technological, ecological
Unpredictability
• “wild cards”
• “episodic events”
• Shocks, surprise
Non-linear change
• The past is not a good predictor of the future
• Trends and extrapolation not very useful
“Regime shifts”
A large, abrupt change in the way a
system functions
Lasting impacts on productivity
Slow and fast factors
Time
Ca
pa
cit
y /
Lo
st
ec
os
ys
tem
se
rvic
es
Institutional capacity Ecosystem services
Making peace with uncertainty
• Think short and long term
• See the over-all picture
• Question the future
• Consider implications of policy decisions
• Experiment, monitor, learn
Considering multiple possible futures
Asking the right questions
Which factors are beyond the Garden
Route’s control?
• Political
• Ecological
• Economic
• Social
• Technological
Which factors are important for our
future?
• Political
• Ecological
• Economic
• Social
• Technological
Planning under uncertain conditions
Uncontrollable factors
• Fires
• Floods
• Droughts
• USA
• Eurozone
• China
• Policies
• Vision 2030
• Capacity
• Immigration Population
Controllable factors
• Ecological infrastructure
• Biodiversity
• Invasive alien plants
Ecosystem management
• Implementation
• Responsiveness
• Debt vs investment
Local Economic Development
• Capacity development
• Skills
• Education
Local
policies, strategies and
practices
• Technology:
• Green economy
• Affordable infrastructure
Private sector investment
Outside forces
Shocks and surprises
Vulnerability
Resilience
People’s choices
The future isn’t what it used to be..
• Pockets of excellence
• Innovation
• Hard times for all
• “New balls please”
• Premier league
• Anarchy
• Failed state
• OR
• “second division”
Eish (we missed
the bus)
Carpe diem
Local is lekker
Maveric’s paradise
Glo
bal
eco
no
mic
rec
ove
ry
Implementation of Vision 2030 Ignored Prioritized
What to do?
hedging our bets..
Ecosystem management
• Repair ecological infrastructure • Coastal fore-dunes
• Riverbanks
• Wetlands
• Indigenous forests
• Manage threats NOW • Invasive plants
• Land transformation
• Partnerships; imaginative proposals; innovation funding
Local Economic Development
Implementation of the PACA results
• Project management skills Capacity development
• Existing unproductive expenditure and commitments
• Be prepared to dump some projects
• But pride and egos? Carefully assess priorities
• Many have spoken about it - heed the calls
• Align development priorities
The Garden Route as a “knowledge and education
hub” in South Africa
Local policy reform Accountability
of local political representatives
Assess impact of bureaucracy
Reduce where possible and
feasible
Cooperation and
‘stewardship’
restore trust and credibility
Close the wealth gap and promote unity
Plans and incentives
Align IDPs with economic
development priorities
Think outside the box with the
IDP process
Can existing budgets be spent more
strategically?
Private sector investment
• Barriers & bridges Strategic
assessment
• Match-makers, facilitators
• Project management skills Capacity to form
partnerships
• Innovators, regulators and implementers
Strategic alliances
Conclusions
• Choices: the Garden Route is staring over a cliff
• We are probably the last generation who can pre-empt and manage a tipping point
• Yes, we are accountable
• Stewardship: holding ourselves accountable for the choices we make now