A Tool to Support the Development & Evaluation of State Unit of Aging

Programs & Projects

A Tool to Support the Development & Evaluation of State Unit of Aging

Programs & Projects

John A. McLaughlin

MACGROUPX@AOL.COM

Logic Modeling:Logic Modeling:

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My Aim TodayMy Aim Today

Orient you to a different way to think about conceptualizing and telling the performance story of your State Unit on Aging (SUA) programs and projects

Provide a simple tool for creating a functional picture of how your SUA works to achieve its aims

Offer some helpful hints for framing a useful performance measurement and evaluation strategy for your SUA.

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BeliefsBeliefs

Social Advocacy

• Client/customer focus

The right to be part of a well run program

Program Staff Advocacy

• Managing for Results

Nobody gets it right the first time out!

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Themes You’ll Hear TodayThemes You’ll Hear Today

GOOD MANAGEMENT

• Relevance• Quality• Performance

Connections

Evidence

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More WordsMore Words

Goals -- Impacts Objectives

• Outcome -- changesShort-term (proximal)Intermediate (distal)

• SupportingResourcesActivitiesOutputs: productivity and reach

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PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENTPerformance management includes activities to ensure that goals are consistently being met in an effective and efficient manner. Performance management tools include logic models, performance measurement and program evaluation.

Logic Model

Tool/framework that helps identify the program/project resources, activities, outputs customers, and outcomes.

Performance Measurement

Helps you understand what

level of performance is achieved by the program/project.

Program Evaluation

Helps you understand and

explain why you’re seeing the program/project

results.

PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT TOOLSPERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT TOOLS

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Logic Models as RecipesLogic Models as Recipes

Recipes have 3 essential components!

A good cook follows the recipe – program staff would do well to create & follow their recipe for success!

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Logic Models as MapsLogic Models as Maps

If you were going on a trip, what would be the first question you need to answer?

Then, what tool would you need?

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Recipes & Maps are used for:Recipes & Maps are used for:

Planning

Communicating

Performance Measurement and Evaluation

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The Logic ModelThe Logic Model

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Level I Logic ModelLevel I Logic Model

RESULTS / IMPACTWhy you are in

Business!

YOUR PROGRAMWhat you do to achieve your

long-term aims!

RESOURCES / INPUTSThe ingredients youneed to implement

your program!

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7651 3 42

CustomersActivities Outputs1rst Order Outcome

2nd Order Outcome

ImpactResources

Program’s Sphere of Influence

Contextual Influences

HOW WHY

Level II Logic ModelLevel II Logic Model

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Understanding the Sphere of InfluenceUnderstanding the Sphere of Influence

Ask your team to estimate their level of confidence that their program will lead to each outcome in the logic model.

• The Strategic Impact

• The Intermediate Outcomes

• The Short-term Identify Performance Partners!

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Complex Effects ChainComplex Effects Chain

Partners

Shared Common Outcomes

Transparency

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Elements of Logic ModelsElements of Logic Models Resources / Inputs: Programmatic investments available to

support the program. Objectives / Activities: Things you do– activities you plan to

conduct in your program. Outputs: Product or service delivery/implementation targets you

aim to produce. Customer: User of the products/services. Target audience the

program is designed to reach. Outcomes: Changes or benefits resulting from activities and

outputs. Outcome Structure

• Short-term (K, S, A) – Changes in learning, knowledge, attitude, skills, understanding

• Intermediate (Behavior) – Changes in behavior, practice or decisions

• Long-term (Condition) – Changes in condition External Influences: Factors that will influence change in the

affected community.

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Outputs & OutcomesOutputs & Outcomes

An annual conference disseminates the latest forage research.

Low-income families are better able to manage their resources.

Program staff teach financial management skills to low-income families.

Community volunteers have knowledge and skill to work effectively with at-risk youth.

The camp experience provides leadership development opportunities for 4-H youth.

Forage producers in Pasture County know current research information and use it to make informed decisions.

The program trains and empowers community volunteers.

Campers, aged 12-15 years of age, learn new leadership and communication skills while at camp.

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Outputs & OutcomesOutputs & Outcomes

An annual conference disseminates the latest forage research.

Low-income families are better able to manage their resources.

Program staff teach financial management skills to low-income families.

Community volunteers have knowledge and skill to work

effectively with at-risk youth.

The camp experience provides leadership development opportunities for 4-H youth.

Forage producers in Pasture County know current research information and use it to make

informed decisions.

The program trains and empowers community volunteers.

Campers, aged 12-15 years of age, learn new leadership and

communication skills while at camp.

OUTPUT OUTCOME

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VolunteersVolunteers

If the program is addressing a situation of low volunteer involvement in community affairs and the purpose of the program is to increase volunteering among community residents as a part of a larger community development initiative, then increased numbers of residents volunteering in community life would be an outcome. The outcome is expressed as a behavioral change.

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Number or type of participants who attend; number of clients served. Number or type of participants who attend; number of clients served.

If the purpose of the program is to increase use of a service by an underserved group, then numbers using the service would be an outcome. The outcome is not numbers attending or served; the outcome is expressed as use that indicates behavioral change.

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Participant Satisfaction.Participant Satisfaction.

For our purposes in education and outreach programming, client satisfaction may be necessary but is not sufficient. A participant may be satisfied with various aspects of the program (professionalism of staff, location, facility, timeliness, responsiveness of service, etc) but this does not mean that the person learned, benefited or his/her condition improved.

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Training, Research, ProducingTraining, Research, Producing

These are Outputs. They may be essential aspects that are necessary and make it possible for a group or community to change. But, they do not represent benefits or changes in participants and so are not outcomes. They lead to, result in outcomes, but in and of themselves, they are outputs.

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Steps in the Logic Model ProcessSteps in the Logic Model Process

1. Establish a stakeholder work group and collect documents.

2. Define the problem and context for the program or project.

3. Define the elements of the program in a table.4. Develop a diagram and text describing logical

relationships.5. Verify the Logic Model with

INTERNAL / EXTERNAL stakeholders.6. Then use the Logic Model to identify and confirm

performance measures, and in planning, conducting and reporting performance measurement and evaluation.

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Step 1: Establish work group & collect documents & information. Step 1: Establish work group & collect documents & information.

Convene / consult a work group

• provides different perspectives and knowledge

• attempts agreement on program performance expectations

Review sources of program or project documentation

• Strategic and operational plans

• Budget requests

• Current metrics

• Past evaluations Conduct interviews of appropriate staff

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Step 2: Define problem program addresses & context. Step 2: Define problem program addresses & context.

The ProblemProgram

Addresses

Factors leading to the Problem

123* your niche

The Program

The Context

Drivers of Success

Constraints on Success

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Step 3: Define elements of program or project in a table.Step 3: Define elements of program or project in a table.

External Influences:

Resources/ Activities Outputs Customers Short-term Intermediate Long-termInputs Reached (Change in Attitude) (Change in Behavior) (Change in (Condition)

Outcomes

WHAT & WHY HOW WHO

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Step 4: Develop a diagram & text describing logical relationships.Step 4: Develop a diagram & text describing logical relationships.

We use these resources…1.0

We use these resources…1.0

For these activities…2.0

For these activities…2.0

To produce these outputs 3.0

To produce these outputs 3.0

So that the customers can change these ways.

4.0

So that the customers can change these ways.

4.0

Which leads to these outcomes.

5.0

Which leads to these outcomes.

5.0

Leading to these results!

6.0

Leading to these results!

6.0

Draw arrows to indicate/link causal relationships between logic model elements.

Work from both directions (right-to-left and left-to-right)

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Two Important Rules to FollowTwo Important Rules to Follow

For every action identified in the Logic Model, the must be an output that connects to an outcome through a specific customer.

OR

An action must produce an output that becomes a key input to another activity.

THINK CONNECTIONS!

Logic Modeling Exercise 1

Logic Modeling Exercise 1

Brief application of logic modeling using a United Way

example

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Logic Modeling Exercise Logic Modeling Exercise

GOAL: Provide an opportunity for participants to apply the principles and practices of logic modeling in an interactive setting.

INSTRUCTIONS:

1. The group will be given a set of index cards that contain words or statements that answer the list of questions on the next slide.

2. As a group, review the questions and use the index cards to map out the logic of our case study program on your flip chart paper.

3. When the cards are placed/glued on the paper in the correct order, draw lines connecting the cards to show the logic relationships.

4. When you have completed your logic model, the cards will be ordered so that they describe the program logic and its underlying assumptions (boxes and connecting arrows).

5. Check your logic using if, then and how, why statements. When you have completed this exercise be prepared to report out to the larger group. REMEMBER THE RULES!

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Questions to Guide ModelingQuestions to Guide Modeling

What are the essential resources we need to implement program?

What programs / activities do we have to implement with these people to achieve our results?

What are the outputs of our programs?

Who / what do we need to reach to achieve these results?

What are the short-term and intermediate changes that will enable us to realize our strategic results?

What are the strategic results / long-term environmental outcomes we are aiming for?

What external influences to the program context do we have to be aware of?

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Worksheet Simple Logic Model DiagramWorksheet Simple Logic Model Diagram

EXTERNAL INFLUENCES

Short-term

Outcomes

Outputs

(representativ

e)

Intermediate

Outcomes

Long-Term

OutcomesResources

Activitie

s

Target A

udience

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Action AResources A Outcomes

Action BResources B Outcomes

Action CResources C Outcomes

Strategic Program Results!

“Z” LogicSupplier-Customer Relationship“Z” LogicSupplier-Customer Relationship

Unpacking supports more focused Performance Measurement & thus more useful evaluation, as well as better understanding & communication about how the “Program” is supposed to work!

“Unpacked Logic Models”“Unpacked Logic Models”

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Materials Development

Recruitment

Training

Technical Assistance

Website

Resources

Outcomes

Short-term Intermediate Long-termActivities Customers

Developers & builders acquire new technologies & change practice

EPA

State

Local

Private

Increased awareness of harmful effects

Increased awareness of new technologies and incentives

Impact

LEVEL II LOGIC MODEL

Developers/ Builders

 Reduction in NPS pollutants in waterways

Healthier Wetlands

More Fish

Clean Beaches

Clean/ Safe/ Swim-able/ Fishable Water

LEVEL I LOGIC MODEL

EPA

State

Local

Private

Improving Water

Quality Training Program

CleanSafe

SwimableFishable

Water

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Resources

Outcomes

Short-term

Intermediate Long-termActivities

Developers and builders acquire new technologies and change practice

•EPA

•State

•Local

•Private

 Increased awareness of harmful effects

•Increased awareness of new technologies and incentives

Impact

Developers/ Builders Trained

 

Reduction in NPS pollutants in waterways

Healthier Wetlands

More Fish

Clean Beaches

Clean/ Safe/ Swim-able/ Fishable Water

LEVEL III LOGIC MODEL

Materials Development

Recruitment

Training

Technical Assistance

Website

Outputs

Materials Ready

Trainees Ready

Trainees Receive TA

Trainees/ Others aware of/using new information

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Testing The Logic of Strategic PlansTesting The Logic of Strategic Plans

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Strategic Plan Check: GoalsStrategic Plan Check: Goals

Is the goal statement outcome oriented? Does it specify the expected strategic change / impact

for a specific target group (older persons & disabled)? What evidence is available that this impact / change is

important (relevance)? Are there existing needs data? What specific roles, if any, do partners (internal &

external) play in the success of this impact? Are there missing Goals to enable the mission / vision

to be realized? What concerns you most about this goal, right now?

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Strategic Plan Check: ObjectivesStrategic Plan Check: Objectives Is the objective outcome oriented? Does it clearly specify the anticipated change for a

specific target group & why they need to be changed? Does the change relate to the goal? Will success with

this objective lead to success with the goal? (QUALITY) What evidence is available that that this change is

important? Are there existing needs data? What specific roles, if any, do partners (internal &

external) play in the success of this objective? Are there missing Objectives to enable the goal to be

realized? What concerns you most about this objective, right

now?

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Strategic Plan Check: StrategiesStrategic Plan Check: Strategies

Is there a reasonable degree of confidence that strategy will result in achievement of a specific outcome for a specific group?

What evidence is available that this strategy is the right strategy – in comparison to others – to achieve the outcome that is specified?

What specific roles, if any, do partners (internal & external) play in the success of this strategy?

Considering the strategy you’ve adopted, do you have sufficient resources on hand or available to actualize the strategy?

Are there missing strategies to enable the objectives to be realized?

What concerns you most about this strategy, right now?

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Scenario Checking What if’s!Scenario Checking What if’s!

1. Select several external forces & imagine related changes which might influence the SUA, e.g., change in regulations, demographic changes, etc. Scanning the environment for key characteristics often suggests potential changes that might effect the alliance, as does sharing the plan with stakeholders!

2. For each change in a force, discuss 3 different future SUA scenarios (including best case, worst case, & reasonable case) which might arise with the SUA as a result of each change. Reviewing the worst-case scenario often provokes strong motivation to change the SUA – forming partnerships, changing strategy.

3. Conduct likelihood / Impact assessment on each external influence.

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Scenario CheckingWhat if’s!Scenario CheckingWhat if’s!

Select most likely external changes to effect the SUA, e.g., over the next 3-5 years, identify the most reasonable strategies the SUA can undertake to respond to change. Suggest what the SUA might do, or potential strategies, in each of the 3 scenarios to respond to each change.

This process should be repeated for each element of the Logic Model• Program structure – Resources, Activities, Outputs• Outcome structure – Short-term, Intermediate,

Strategic REMEMBER – “NOBODY GETS IT RIGHT THE FIRST

TIME OUT!”

Logic Modeling Exercise 2

Logic Modeling Exercise 2

Brief application of logic modeling focusing on a typical

SUA program

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Logic Modeling Exercise Logic Modeling Exercise

GOAL: Provide an opportunity for participants to apply the principles & practices of logic modeling in an interactive setting.

INSTRUCTIONS:1. Participants will identify 1 SUA program (e.g., community

awareness, home delivered or congregate meals, education) to Logic Model as it operates currently.

2. Group will construct a Level I & Level II Logic Model.

3. After constructing the Models and checking using if, then and how, why questions, the participants should discuss who they might tweak the Model to address Choice.

4. Participants will be prepared to present their Modules to the whole group.

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Benefits of Logic Modeling Benefits of Logic Modeling

Communicates the performance story of the program or project.

Focuses attention on the most important connections between actions and results.

Builds a common understanding among staff and with stakeholders.

Helps staff “manage for results” and informs program design.

Finds “gaps” in the logic of a program and works to resolve them.

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Logic Modeling BenefitsLogic Modeling Benefits

Kellogg, 1998

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The real value --The real value --

Most of the value in a logic model is in the process of creating, validating, and modifying the model … The clarity in thinking that occurs from building the model and the depth and breath of those involved are critical to the overall success of the process as well as the program.

Adapted from W.K. Kellogg Foundation Handbook, 1998

Social MechanismSocial Mechanism

Logic Modeling, Performance Measurement,

& Evaluation

Logic Modeling, Performance Measurement,

& Evaluation

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Orientations for Performance Measurement & EvaluationOrientations for Performance Measurement & Evaluation

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT Accountability, description

• What objectives/outcomes have been accomplished at what levels?

PROGRAM EVALUATION Learning, Program Improvement, Defense

• What factors, internally and/or externally influenced my performance? (Retrospective)

• What effect will this level of performance have on future performance if I don’t do something? (Prospective)

• What roles (+/-) did context play in my performance?

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Key Questions Grantees Need to Answer About Their ProgramsKey Questions Grantees Need to Answer About Their Programs

What am I doing, with whom, to whom/what? (effort) How well am I doing it? (quality)

• Customer Feedback• Peer Review for Technical Quality• User Review for Social Validity

Is anybody (anything) better off? (effect)• Short-term• Long-term

What role, if any, did my program play in the results? What role, if any, did the context play? Were there any unintended outcomes? What will happen if I don’t do something?

Performance Measurement

Program Evaluation

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Pro

gra

m L

og

ic H

iera

rch

y

Hierarch

y of P

erform

ance M

easurem

ent D

ata

Program Logic ElementsMatching Levels of

Performance Information

7. End results

6. Practice and behavior change

5. Knowledge, attitude, and skill changes

4. Reactions

3. Participation

2. Activities

1. Resources

7. Measures of impact on overall problem, ultimate goals, side effects, social and economic consequences

1. Resources expanded; number and types ofstaff involved; time extended

2. Implementation data on what the program actually offers or does

3. The characteristics of program participants and clients; numbers, nature of involvement; background

4. What participants and clients say about the program; satisfaction; interest; strengths; weaknesses

5. Measures of individual and group changes in knowledge, attitude, and skills

6. Measures of adoption of new practices and behavior over time

Performance Measurement Hierarchy

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Two QuestionsTwo Questions

What is the right Outcome?• Short-term• Intermediate• Strategic

Am I getting at the right Outcome, the right way?• Efficiency• Effectiveness

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Types of MeasuresTypes of MeasuresCategory Definition Examples

Resources/

Inputs

Resources consumed by the organization.

Amount of funds, # of FTE, materials, equipment, supplies

Activities Work performed that directly produces core products & services.

# of training classes offered as designed; Hours of technical assistance training for staff.

Outputs Products & services provided as a direct result of program activities.

#of technical assistance requests responded to; # of compliance workbooks developed/delivered.

Customer Reached

Measure of target population receiving outputs.

% of target population trained; # of target population receiving technical assistance.

Customer Satisfaction

Measure of satisfaction with outputs.

% of customers dissatisfied with training; % of customers “very satisfied” with assistance received.

Outcomes Accomplishment of program goals and objectives (short-term and intermediate outcomes, long-term outcomes--impacts).

% in citizen understanding of sound nutrition choices; # communities adopt research-based practices; % in # community-based choices

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Work Quality Measures Work Quality Measures

Category Definition Examples

Efficiency The ratio of the amount of input to the amount of output. Focus is on operating efficiency. Relating output to some specific resource in terms of cost or time.

Cost per workbook produced; cost per meal delivered.

Productivity Measure of the rate of production per some specific unit of resource (e.g., staff or employee). The focus is labor productivity.

Number of meals delivered per volunteer.

CostEffectiveness

Measure that relates outcomes to costs.

Cost per number of persons who are elderly improving nutrient intake

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Defending your Impact ClaimDefending your Impact Claim

Did we observe a change in the anticipated outcome(s) as seen in your performance measures?

Can we connect any element of our program (what we did) to that change using your performance measures?

Are there any rival explanations (usually in the context)?

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Definitions:Definitions:

Performance Measurement:

The ongoing monitoring & reporting of program progress & accomplishments, using pre-selected performance measures.

Performance measure – a metric used to gauge program or project performance.

Indicators – measures, usually quantitative, that provide information on program performance and evidence of a change in the “state or condition” in the system.

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Definitions:Definitions:

Program Evaluation:

A systematic study that uses measurement & analysis to answer specific questions about how well a program is working to achieve its outcomes & why.

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+ DISCREPANCY

- DISCREPANCY

ACTUAL LEVEL OF PROGRAM

PERFORMANCE

STANDARD/ DESIRED LEVEL

OF PROGRAM

PERFORMANCE

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Example Example

Standard: 95% of targeted community-based treatment facilities will adopt BMPs by June 2006.

Performance: 65% of targeted community-based treatment facilities adopt BMPs by June 2006.

Managers’ Question: Should we act and if so, what should we do?

Prospective Evaluation Question:What impact on predicted longer-term impacts will this observed level of performance have?

Retrospective Evaluation Question: What programmatic or contextual factors influenced the observed level of performance?

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The Logic Model & EvaluationThe Logic Model & Evaluation

Longer term

outcome

(STRATEGIC

AIM)

Intermediate

outcome

Short term

outcomeCustomersOutputsActivitiesResources/

Inputs

WHYHOW

PROGRAMRESULTS FROM

PROGRAM

EXTERNAL CONDITIONS INFLUENCING PERFORMANCE (+/-)

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Assessing Strength of Evaluation Design for ImpactAssessing Strength of Evaluation Design for Impact

Is the population representing the counterfactual equivalent in all pertinent respects to the program population before that population is exposed to the intervention – selection bias

Is the intervention the only force that could cause systematic differences between the 2 populations once exposure begins?

Is the full force of the intervention applied to the program population, and is none applied to the counterfactual?• Implementation evaluation• Independence

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In the end Logic Models:In the end Logic Models:

Enable planners to: Develop a more convincing, plausible argument

RE how their program is supposed to work to achieve their outcomes & communicate this to funding agencies & other stakeholders.

Focus their PM/PE on the right elements of performance to enable program improvement & the estimation of causal relationships between & among elements.

Be better positioned to present & defend their claims about their program performance to external stakeholders.