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THE HILL
P R E S E N T E D B Y
Scott OrrVice President, Government Relations and Public Affairs
Fidelity Investments
A VIEW FROM
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Provide thought leadership to
associates, clients, and external parties
Assess public policy risks & opportunities
Engage with the media, trade
associations, think tanks, third party
influencers, and academics
Build strong relationships with
policymakers, community leaders, and
the media based on knowledge and trust
Inform our associates on the issues
that matter to our firm, our
customers, and our workforce
Actively engage in our regions, both
within Fidelity and in our communities
PUBLIC POLICY
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
RELATIONS
REGIONALPUBLIC AFFAIRS
Fidelity Public Policy and Advocacy Structure
EXTERNAL COMMUNICATIONS
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D
i
s
a
p
p
e
a
r
a
n
c
e
o
f
p
o
l
Source: National Journal Vote Rankings, 2013
Disappearance of the Political “Middle”
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Less Competition Drives Partisan Divide
Sources: The Cook Political Report, 2017.
House makeup Partisan Vote Index
■Democratic (D+5 or greater) ■ Swing (D+5 to R+5) ■ Republican (R+5 or greater)
123
139
149 148 147 150 150146
159 160168
164
134111 108 108
103 10399
90 91
72
148
162
175179 180 182 182
190186 184
195
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017
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Key Leaders of the 116th Congress
SENATE
HOUSE
Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Senate Majority Leader
Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Senate Minority Leader
Chuck Grassley (R-IA)
Senate Finance Committee
Chair
Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
Speaker of the House
Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
House Minority Leader
Maxine Waters (D-CA)
House Financial Services
Committee Chair
Richie Neal (D-MA)
House Ways and Means
Committee Chair
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Agency Regulatory Priorities & Opportunities
• Regulation Best Interest
• eDelivery
• Cryptocurrencies
• Fund of Funds Rule
• ETF Regulation
• Best interest standard
• Missing participants
• Open multiple employer
plans (MEPs)
• eDelivery
• HSAs/HRAs
• Core Principles reports
• Fintech
• Data aggregation
• Required minimum
distributions (RMDs)
• FSOC reforms
Securities and
Exchange
Commission (SEC)
Department of
Labor
Department of the
Treasury
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Robust regulatory agenda faces potential obstacles
House Financial Services Chair Maxine Waters (D-CA):
“The days of this Committee weakening
regulations...will come to an end.”
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Will Congress strike a balance between oversight and legislating?
O v e r s i g h t / I n v e s t i g a t i o n s I s s u e s i n P l a y
• Infrastructure
• Immigration
• Healthcare
• Tax
• Trade
• Retirement Savings
• Privacy
• Government funding
How far will Democrats go?
• Investigating presidential
activities
• Judiciary investigations
• Challenging regulatory
agendas
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2019 Agenda
TOPIC BOTTOM LINE
Debt ceiling Need to raise the debt ceiling is testing a divided Congress.
Expiring Authorizations
Export-Import Bank, Older Americans Act, and public lands management must
be reauthorized in 2019.
Appropriations Appropriations bills will be more difficult to pass in a divided Congress.
TaxHouse Democrats will likely try to roll back part of tax reform, but changes will
go nowhere in the Senate.
Immigration DACA and wall funding will continue to be politically contentious in 2019.
NominationsSenate Republican leadership will continue to take up judicial nominations
and will have to confirm new Cabinet members.
Trade Expect pushback on USMCA vs NAFTA.
Healthcare Drug pricing and ACA markets will be a topic of debate.
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Retirement Policy May Advance in a Partisan Environment
• Private sector products already
exist
• States are not well-suited to
administer retirement plans
• for private sector workers
• Ensure American workers are
accumulating sufficient savings
• Increase education, planning, and
guidance
• Improve benefit security
PLAN SIMPLIFICATION
• Expand auto features
• Allow flexible investment options
• Maintain annual contribution limits
• Consolidate workplace plans
eDELIVERY
• Make eDelivery the default means
of communication
• Simplify and streamline rules
• Promote auto-enrollment
• Make Open-MEPs viable for small
businesses and independent
workers
• Expand the Saver’s Credit
COVERAGE GAP
RETIREMENT INCOME STATE/CITY PLANS
Bi-partisan legislation; regulatory initiatives could improve savings system
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The SEC has proposed a package of
rules relating to standards of conduct
for broker-dealers and investment
advisers.
• Regulation Best Interest: provides an
enhanced standard of conduct for
broker-dealers
• Form CRS: updated disclosure
requirements for broker-dealers and
investment advisers
Regulation Best Interest
• Enhance broker-dealer standard without exceeding the
standard that applies to investment advisors:
• Allow broker-dealers to limit the universe of products
and services they recommend through disclosure:
• Minimize regulatory confusion
• Ensure that disclosures meet customers’ needs
KEY CHANGES NEEDED
April 2016
DOL proposes
fiduciary rule
2016
DOL finalizes
fiduciary rule
February 2017
Executive Order
March 2018
Fifth Circuit
invalidates rule
2010
Dodd-Frank passes
2018
SEC proposes
Regulation Best
Interest
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Securities Transaction Tax – Could it Happen?
Wall Street Act of 2019
• Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI)
• Reps Peter DeFazio (D-OR) & Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)
- 3 Senate and 18 House co-sponsors to date (all Democrats)
- Proposed 0.1% tax on financial securities transactions
- CBOE estimates would raise $777 Billion over 10 years, but reduce
taxable business and individual incomes
- 59% of voters (including 45% of Republicans) like the idea
- Similar taxes in effect and gaining steam in Europe
Fidelity Internal Information
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2020 Campaign Kick-off: November 7, 2018
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■ Clinton win ■ Trump win
Trump’s narrow victories in key states leave him vulnerable to
even a small swing in 2020
10 states were decided by less than 5%
14*Clinton won Maine’s statewide vote, but Trump received an electoral vote for winning the 2nd districtSource: National Journal research, 2018.
PA
ME*
NC
MI
WI
MN
NV
FL
NH-4
VT-3
Trump by 3.9 %
(91,682 votes)
Trump by 1%
(27,257 votes)
Trump by 0.3%
(13,080 votes)
Trump by 3.8%
(177,009 votes)
AZ
NH
Trump by 1.2%
(68,236 votes)
Trump by 1.2%
(112,911 votes)
Clinton by 2.4%
(26,434 votes)
Clinton by 1.5%
(44,470 votes)
Clinton by 0.4%
(2,701 votes)
Clinton by 2.7%
(19,995 votes)
OH
WVVA
NY
SC
GA
KY
IN
LATX
OK
ID
OR
WA
CA
NM
CO
WY
MT ND
SD
IA
UT
AR
MO
MS AL
NE
KS
AK
HI
IL
NY
VT
TN
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Senate Republicans will face a tougher reelection map in 2020
THE MAP SWINGS BACK
• A second-term Trump?
• A Democratic sweep?
• Impact on redistricting?
WHAT ISSUES REAPPEAR?
• Health care
• Compensation & wage equality,
minimum wage & living wage
• Federal workforce issues
• Re-regulation
REPUBLICAN SEATS UP: 22
DEMOCRAT SEATS UP: 12
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Democrats have no chance to remove Trump
from office without Republican votes
Impeachment process
• Simple majority vote in House to indict president for “treason,
bribery, or other high crimes & misdemeanors”
• 2/3 vote in the Senate to convict president and remove from
office
25th Amendment process
• VP and a majority of the cabinet tell Congress the president is
“unable to discharge the powers & duties of his office”
• If the president appeals, 2/3 vote in both House and Senate
removes president from office
Simple majority:
2182/3
majority: 291
Sources: Charlie Savage, “How the Impeachment Process Works,” The New York Times, May 17, 2017.
House of Representatives Senate
Simple majority:
512/3
majority: 67
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Many states that lost seats in 2010 will lose even more in 2020, while Florida and Texas will continue to gain seats
Changes to congressional apportionment with total number of representatives after 2022
BASED ON 2017 US CENSUS ESTIMATES; UNC CAROLINA DEMOGRAPHY PROJECT ANALYSIS
Lose 1 No change Gain 1 Gain 2 Gain 3
Alabama (6)
Illinois (17)
Michigan (13)
Minnesota (7)
New York (26)
Ohio (15)
Pennsylvania (17)
Rhode Island (1)
West Virginia (2)
AK (1)
AR (4)
CA (53)
CT (5)
DE (1)
GA (14)
HI (2)
IA (4)
ID (2)
IN (9)
KS (4)
KY (6)
LA (6)
MA (9)
MD (8)
ME (2)
MO (8)
MS (4)
MT (1)
ND (1)
NE (3)
NH (2)
NJ (12)
NM (3)
NV (4)
OK (5)
SC (7)
SD (1)
TN (9)
UT (4)
VA (11)
VT (1)
WA (10)
WI (8)
WY (1)
Arizona (10)
Colorado (8)
N. Carolina (14)
Oregon (6)
Florida (29) Texas (39)
Sources: US Census Bureau, February 22, 2018. UNC Carolina Population Center, “Carolina Demography Project” December 21, 2017.
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Anticipated Gains/Losses in Reapportionment
2021
Source: The Cook Political Report, 2018
39
29
1410
8
26
6
17
7
13
152
17
26RI (1)
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Most state legislatures control the congressional district map-making process, although governors in many states can veto
Who decides congressional district boundaries?
†Rhode Island is expected to lose one of its 2 House seats
**Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature
Sources: Justin Levitt, “All About Redistricting,” Loyola Law School. National Conference of State Legislatures, “2017 State & Legislative Partisan Composition,” November 10, 2017
■ Independent commission ■ No redistricting (only 1 rep)
■ Republican legislature alone/Politician commission ■ Republican advisory commission (subject to legislative
vote)/Backup commission (in case of legislative gridlock)
■ Democratic legislature alone/Politician commission ■ Democratic advisory commission/backup commission
■ Split legislature alone/Politician commission ■ Split legislature with advisory commission/backup commission
ASTERISK-MARKED STATES HAVE A GOVERNOR OF A DIFFERENT PARTY THAN THE LEGISLATURE’S CONTROLLING PARTY AND ARE SUBJECT TO A
GUBERNATORIAL VETO
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Texas is Growing and Changing Demographically Numeric Change By Race – DFW Metro Area – 2000 – 2017
Source: US Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
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Population Pyramid for White Non-Hispanics in Texas
2017
Source: US Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
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Population Pyramid for Hispanics in Texas
2017
Source: US Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
23Source:
TEXAS POLITICS
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REPUBLICAN SENATE MAJORITY REPUBLICAN HOUSE MAJORITY
836719
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R)
Governor Greg Abbott (R)
Speaker Dennis Bonnen (R)
Current Composition of the Texas Legislature
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Top Issues – Texas 86th Legislature
TOPIC BOTTOM LINE
School FinancePublic School funding, formulas, basic allotment, teacher pay raises, property
tax rate compression, charter schools, vouchers, higher education
Property Taxes Tax revenue caps, appraisal reform, local responsibility, tax swaps
Economic Development
Reauthorize Chapter 312/313, Texas Enterprise Fund transparency,
Preemption of local ordinances (e.g. mandatory sick leave)
Infrastructure Transportation funding, eminent domain, water
Privacy/Cybersecurity Data privacy, breach reporting, biometrics
Healthcare Medicaid wavers, funding, rural hospitals
Social Issues Religious Freedom, Non-Discrimination Ordinances, Amendments
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QUESTIONS?
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The views and opinions presented reflect the opinions of the speaker(s) and may be based upon information obtained from third party
sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. These opinions do not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity Investments or its
affiliates and may change at any time based on market or other conditions. Fidelity disclaims any responsibility to update such views.
These materials are provided for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as a recommendation of any security,
sector, or investment strategy. Any companies, securities, and/or markets referenced are solely for illustrative purposes regarding
economic trends and conditions. Fidelity does not provide legal or tax advice. Consult an attorney or tax professional regarding a
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