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a vieW from the acaDeme:Dr. florian alBUro

Thank    you    very    much    Professor    Quilop.    Let    me    laud    the    UP Association    of    PoliticalScience    Majors    for    this    particular    forum.    This    is    a    very    important    venue    and    platform    for

exchange of views on the burning issues in the country. And one of them, of course, is thetheme for this afternoon which is finding a way out of the vicious cycle of conflict and arresteddevelopment.

In order not to distort my presentation because a lot of what I have to say has really beencovered by General Esperon, let me just discuss why conflicts arise and spend the remainingtime discussing how to deal with conflict, specifically what are the ways we can get out of thisvicious cycle.

As    pointed    out    by    General    Esperon,    one    of    the    major    results    of    conflict    is    really    thedislocation of families and individuals. Because of conflict, they have become refugees. Theyhave no permanent means of settlement. They live in temporary dwellings.

But    the    most    important    effectof    conflict    from    our    point    of    viewis    really    economic    disruption.    Andthe consequences of these economicdisruptions    are    tremendous.    Thereare supply shortages that take placein communities affected by conflict.They result in high prices of goods.Of course, they are also exploited bybusinessmen who try to capitalizeon the situation.There are fewinvestments that come in.

And    finally,    I    think,    it    is    important    to    point    out    that    there    is    limited    private    sectorparticipation and an increasing reliance on the government. That itself is a major consequenceof conflict. The Human Development Report of 2005 also mentions the other results of conflictbut I will not spend time on them, except to note that conflict also creates social problems.

The relationship between conflict and underdevelopment is sometimes shown in statistics.Unfortunately, the statistics that we have do not reveal a strong relationship between areaswith conflict and poverty or low levels of development, for the simple reason that the rest ofthe country suffer from poverty.

There are other indicators of human development. Just to give you an example, one of thetables in the Human Development Report indicates that provinces with high unemployment

rates    are    also    provinces    that    are    major    areas    of    conflict.    This    is    not    really    correct    becauseprovinces    which    have    high    levels    of    unemployment    are    actually    provinces    which    are

inmigration    provinces,    and    that    therefore    generates    high    unemployment    rate.    Thus,    thecausation is not totally true. Well, the relationship may be there but one has to make sure thatthe relationship is fairly indicated in terms of the causation and the mechanism in which they

happen.

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There may be other results of these conflicts but I will not spend time, as I previously said.Let me rather go to the real meat of my presentation, and that is how to deal with areas whichare under conflict, areas which the United Nations call post-conflict areas.

We have often heard that violence is only a symptom of an economic problem and thatthe real solution is development. Now, this is easier said than done. It is very important, and Ithink it is really important, that we realize there are timing and sequencing issues which needto be addressed.

First, there is a general consensus in the international development field that Disarmament,Demobilization    and    Reintegration    (DDR)    are    necessary    foundations    and    sine    qua    non for

further steps towards development. This means that, as General Esperon mentioned, publicsecurity    should    be    ensured.    But    this    actually    alsomeans that the police should take over the militaryin    providing    public    security    and    there    should    be    agradual withdrawal of the armed forces in order toallow the civilian forces to take over.

Disarmament is the identification and removal ofweapons. Demobilization includes both combatantsand    non-combatants    and    refers    to    the    processof    disbanding    troops    and    assisting    them    in    theirtransition    to    civilian    life.    Reintegration    means    thatformer combatants are able to establish themselves in

the community with livelihoods towards economic recovery. These are sequential steps whichI think are very important and which should be borne in mind in dealing with post-conflictsituation. Second, reconciliation among the parties involved is necessary. Stakeholders in theconflict need to reconcile.

How do we get out of this particular cycle? One way is through a political solution. Andterritorial designation, for example, is probably one way of pursuing a political solution. But thepursuit of lasting peace and recovery and harmony does not end with territorial designation.For example, designating the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) as a politicalarea is only the beginning. There is a search for sustained private sector development whereboth Muslims and Non-Muslims strive for sustainable development. There is nothing morelasting and contributive to a politically determined territorial area than the efforts to providemaximum employment opportunities for the region’s population or the territory’s populationand attract new investments and open the region to the global market place.

What are these particular measures that would allow us to break from this vicious cycle?As    I    mentioned,    the    first    one    is    a    political    solution.    The    second    is    really    very    important.

It’s infrastructure development. Much of the country is fragmented especially in Mindanao.There    is    fragmentation    of    provinces    and    communities    and    the    only    way    you    can    improve

development is to connect them through important infrastructures.

There    is    a    significant    amount    of    infrastructure    in    the    southern    and    western    parts    ofMindanao. It is now possible to travel from the southern part in General Santos to Davao City,watch a movie in Davao City, have some groceries during the day and return in the afternoon.

It is also possible to move across different coastal towns on both the left side and right side

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of Mindanao from Glan to Kiamba. Again, this is a very important ingredient to move out ofthe vicious cycle.

The third one is private sector investment. And I think the most important one here isemployment. When we address employment, we should be fully addressing employment inconflict areas and in the whole country.

But let me focus on the employment in conflictareas. It is important that able bodied labor forceindividuals have full-time employment becausethat would reduce their ability to become armedindividuals.    It    would    also    reduce    many    socialconflicts    within    the    family.    And    this    wouldgenerally raise the productivity in the country.

How far is this being undertaken in conflictareas? There are buckets of them. There are forexample    many    contract    growers    in    Mindanao

which    are    providing    employment    in    many    conflict    areas.    Well,    there    are    individualentrepreneurs among farmers in Mindanao who provide a lot of employment opportunities.

And    once    this    begins,    it    can    actually    attract    more    investments    from    the    private    sectorsboth domestic and foreign. This is what’s happening in the southern and western parts ofMindanao.

Finally,    I    think    the    most    important    investment    which    is    a    long-term    investment    to    getout of the vicious cycle is Human Resource Development. There was a time in the seventieswhen Mindanao was the prime among the regions in the country in terms of education anddevelopment. This was driven by the missionaries of the Oblates and Jesuits who providededucation in Mindanao.

And just to give you an idea, let me recall when I was teaching in Mindanao in the seventies.I    had    a    class    at    the    University    of    the    Philippines (UP)    teaching    Economics    on Mondays,

Wednesdays, and Fridays.    On Tuesdays and Thursdays, I go to Cotabato to teach Economics.I would fly out in the morning of Tuesday at four o’clock and be back in the afternoon by fiveand go back again on Thursday to teach another course. I gave similar sets of examinationsto my students in Notre Dame in Cabug and UP. Oftentimes, those students in Mindanao did

better than the students here in the UP. Not all the time. But just to give you an idea that it    wasa very important prime investment in Mindanao, which has been lost, partly because of theconflict. It is important that it should be regenerated in today’s work.

There was a time when I was also teaching in Sulu in Tawi-Tawi again through the NotreDame system. The students there read better than the students here. They read Newsweek,

Time    magazine,    and    they    were    up-to-date    in    international    developments.    Again,that    issomething that we need to reintegrate in the Mindanao region.

So, Human Development, Human Resource Development, if not the best, is probably themost effective way of getting out of this conflict. In part, they may migrate to other countriesbut in general, what’s going to happen is that this will allow them to move up economically

and socially. And that should start a way out of the vicious cycle. Thank you very much.