A VISION OF THE DIGITAL FUTURE News is pervasive, portable, personalized, participatory – and a...

A VISION OF THE DIGITAL FUTURENews is pervasive, portable, personalized, participatory – and a social experience

Lee RainieDirector – Pew Internet ProjectKnight-McCormick Leadership Institute7.29.10

July 29, 2010 2New news world

2000

46% of adults use internet

5% with broadband at home

50% own a cell phone

0% connect wirelessly

<10% use “cloud”

0% = tech social networkers

THEN: slow, stationary connections built around my

computer

The internet is the change agent Then and now

2010

79% of adults use internet

66% have broadband at home

82% own a cell phone

59% connect wirelessly

>two-thirds use “cloud”

48% = tech social networkers

NOW: faster, mobile connections built around

outside servers and storage

July 29, 2010 3New news world July 9, 2010 3

Are hot new gadgets evident now?

Hot gadgets and apps that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 will often come “out of the blue” and not have been anticipated by many of today’s savviest innovators.

81% experts80% full sample

The hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 are pretty evident today and will not take many of today’s savviest innovators by surprise.

16% experts17% full sample

July 29, 2010 4New news world July 9, 2010 4

Themes• iPhone, iPhone, iPhone• Innovation ecosystem will change: bandwidth /

processing• There are basic trends evident now that will come to

fruition and some groundwork that has been in place for years that will expand to have more impact – The internet of things – Growth of mobile connectivity and location-based

services– Bigger/thinner TVs - 3D displays– “Consolidated,” all-purpose gadgets and apps


10 ways the media ecosystem will change in the coming

years


Media ecosystem change – 1

Volume of information grows

-- Chris Anderson -- Hal Varian

-- San Diego State research

Internet of things is built and “exaflood” of data swells … more civic data becomes available for news



Venues of intersecting with information multiply and the availability of information expands to all hours of the day and all places … more screens; more surfaces; more interfaces

-- Nielsen Company



Variety of information and sources of information grow as niches narrow and proliferate

-- Markus Prior

-- James Hamilton



Velocity of information increases; the flow of information is rain-like; smart mobs multiply

-- Howard Rheingold Clay Shirky


People’s vigilance for information changes in two directions:

1) attention is truncated (Linda Stone)

2) attention is elongated (Andrew Keen; Terry Fisher)



The vibrance and immersive qualities of media environments changes as real and virtual worlds merge… that makes them more compelling places to hang out

-- Metaverse Roadmap Project

1) Augmented Reality-- Apps universe



2) Life-logging-- Gordon Bell

The vibrance and immersive qualities of media environments changes as real and virtual worlds merge… that makes them more compelling places to hang out

-- Metaverse Roadmap Project



Valence (relevance) of information improves – search, comprehension, customization get better as we create the “Daily Me” and “Daily Us” and the “web of meaning”

– Nicholas Negroponte

-- Sir Tim Berners-Lee



The voice of information democratizes and the visibility of new creators is enhanced. Identity and privacy change.

-- William Dutton

-- Clay Shirky



Voting on and ventilating about information proliferates as tagging, rating, crowdsourcing and groundswells expand; collective intelligence asserts itself

-- Henry Jenkins -- David Weinberger

-- Charlene Li



Social networks become more vivid and meaningful. Media-making is part of social networking. “Networked individualism” takes hold

-- Barry Wellman

-- Duncan Watts


For the audience, news is pervasive, portable,

personalized, participatory, and social


News platforms Americans use on typical day

7873

54 50

17

61

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Local TV Nationalnetwork/cable

Online Radio Localnewspaper

Nationalnewspaper

% o

f ad

ult

s (1

8+)

Pervasive (1) -- People use diverse platforms


Pervasive (2) -- People graze across platforms

# of news platforms Americans use typical day

46%46%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1 platform 2-3 platforms 4-6 platforms

% o

f a

du

lts

(1

8+

)


Pervasive (3) – Platforms have converged online

• 68% of internet news consumers have watched video news stories

• 62% watched live feeds

• 48% emailed stories or news videos


On typical day, 59% of adults

get new online and from at least

one offline source

Pervasive (4) -- People blend old and new media


For the audience, news is portable


33% of cell owners get news on handheldsNews on cell phones (80% of adults have cell phones)

26 25

1816

13 12 11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Weather Browseheadlines

Checknews app

Sports Traffic Financialinfo

Newsalerts byemail/text

% o

f ce

ll u

sers


For the audience, news is personalized


The “Daily Me” and “Daily Us” is being built

• 67% of all Americans say they only follow specific subjects

• 28% of internet users have customized a news page and 42% say customization is an important web feature to them

• ~ 50% belong to listservs / large email groups

• ~ 33% of internet users get RSS feeds

• ~ 25% get news alerts


For the audience, news is participatory

News participators

25

17

119

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Comment onstories

Post links onSNS

Tag content Create news Create newstweets

% o

f in

tern

et

us

ers

37% of internet users are news contributors / disseminators


For the audience, news is a social experience


People use news as a social currency (1)

• 72% of Americans who follow the news at least now and then say they enjoy talking with friends, family, and colleagues about what is happening in the world

• 69% feel that keeping up with the news is a social or civic obligation

• 50% say they rely on the people around them to tell them when there is news they need to know



• 57% of internet users share links to news stories

• 30% of internet users get news on typical day through their SNS use

• 13% follow news organizations and journalists on SNS

• 6% get news via Twitter feeds



• Serendipitous encounters with news still happen AND still matter

• 80% of online news consumers (57% of whole population) say they run across news several times a week while they are online for another purpose


4 implications for news operations


Implication 1

Social networks matter more as sentries, filters,

curators, and distribution channels of

news


Implication 2

“Consumers” are in charge of the news playlist and experience … and they

want to participate in the news-gathering and distribution process


Implication 3

Much news is a commodity and consumers have a

classic “market” response: They don’t want to pay for

something that is abundant and available elsewhere


The Online News Consumer

11%

21%

57%

11%

None

Just One

2 to 5

6 or more

How many websites, if any, do you routinely rely on for news and information?

% of Online News Consumers



35%

65% Have Favorite

Do Not HaveFavorite

Do you have a favorite online news source, or do you not have a favorite?




35%

65% Have Favorite

Do Not HaveFavorite

Do you have a favorite online news source, or do you not have a favorite?


Only 15% of those with a favorite site – 7% of all people who get news online – would be willing

to pay for continued access to that site


Implication 4

News organizations have to figure out where they can

add value in the news chain in a more complex media ecosystem with

more distracted audience


2 models to help you organize your thinking about your place

in the value chain

Pew Research Center’s

Tom Rosenstiel model: Tom Rosenstiel model: Journalism as a service – not Journalism as a service – not

productproductThe Eight Functions of 21st Century Media

- Authentication - Sense Making

- Watch Dog - Smart Aggregation

- Witness - Empowerment

- Forum Leader - Role Model

Charlie Firestone modelCharlie Firestone model


Eight critical uncertainties

• apps impact• advertiser innovation• small biz behavior• internet architecture / cloud configuration • IP policy• privacy concerns • what hyperlocal looks like and means • capacity of info "markets" to find the truth


Final uncertainty – how news operations respond to the paradoxes of new news world

• More material – but less time with news• More direct access to experts and more knowledge being

generated – but not smarter at the general societal level• More voices and more variety – but more traffic to big

brands• More participation and engagement – but less revenue• More transparency of news creation process – but less

trust of coverage• People say it is easier to keep up AND harder to navigate

the clutter• People are satisfied with MSM coverage of the issues that

matter to them AND see more bias in coverage


Thank you!

Lee Rainie

Director

Pew Internet & American Life Project

1615 L Street NW

Suite 700

Washington, DC 20036

Email: [email protected]

Twitter: http://twitter.com/lrainie

202-419-4500

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A VISION OF THE DIGITAL FUTURE News is pervasive, portable, personalized, participatory – and a...

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