Abstract A Water Management Support System for Amman Zarqa Basin in Jordanhas been developed. The water management support system employs the WaterEvaluation and Planning system (WEAP). The water resources and demands inthe basin were modeled as a network of supply and demand nodes connected bylinks. The model was calibrated for the year 2005 data and then validated for theyear 2006 data. Validation results showed good agreement between calculated andmeasured inflows to wastewater treatment plants in the basin. The model was runfor the year 2005 data as well as for four scenarios for the year 2025 which areBusiness As Usual (BAU) scenario, Advanced Wastewater Treatment (AWWT)scenario, the Red Sea, Dead Sea Channel (RSDSC) scenario and the optimisticscenario. The BAU scenario assumes that water use trends for the year 2025 followspredictable trends, the implementation of the disi project and the Wehda dam aremain components of the BAU scenario. The AWWT scenario assumes that theeffluent of As Samra wastewater treatment plant is treated to a level where it canbe used for unrestricted irrigation within the basin and in the highlands. The maincomponent of the RSDSC scenario is the implementation of the RSDSC project. Theoptimistic scenario combines both the AWWT scenario and the RSDSC scenario.The AWWT scenario, the RSDSC scenario, and the optimistic scenario are childscenarios of the BAU scenario. The results showed that neither domestic demandnor agricultural demand is met for the year 2005. The results also showed that
A. Al-Omari (B) · S. Al-QuraanWater & Environment Research & Study Center, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordane-mail: [email protected]
A. Al-SalihiCivil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
F. AbdullaCivil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Jordan University for Science &Technology, Ar Ramtha, Jordan
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domestic and industrial demands can be satisfied for all the considered scenarios byproper management of the available resources. However, agricultural demand can’tbe satisfied for the business as usual scenario.
Keywords Amman Zarqa Basin · Integrated water resources management ·Jordan valley · Jordan water resources · King Abdulla Canal · Water allocation ·Water evaluation and planning
1 Introduction
Jordan is among the poorest countries in the world in water resources. The scarcity ofwater resources as a result of frequent and long droughts combined in some instanceswith high population growth natural and as a result of involuntary immigration fromthe surrounding countries has resulted in severe and persistent water crisis over thelast several decades. As a result, the per capita share of fresh water resources inJordan is currently less than 160 m3/year (Al-Weshah 2001) which places Jordanway below the poverty limit of 1,000 m3/year (Glieck 1993). The sudden fluxes ofrelatively large numbers of refugees over the last several decades due to politicalinstability in the region has resulted in huge and instantaneous pressures on thealready stressed water resources which in many cases rendered development plansineffective. Furthermore, the fact that large portions of Jordan’s water resourcesare trans-boundary made their utilization and development even more complicated.Amman Zarqa Basin (AZB) and Yarmouk River are shared with Syria, the JordanRiver is at the boundary between Jordan and Israel, and the Disi aquifer is sharedwith Saudi Arabia. The fact that Jordan is the downstream party in all the aforemen-tioned resources reduces their role as reliable resources.
The non uniform and even skewed spatial distribution of the population in Jordanhas resulted in an elevated cost of supplying the water to the consumers as the waterneeds to be pumped, treated and transported from where it is available to where itwill be used. It is important to note that AZB which makes about four percent ofJordan’s area only is the home for about 60% of Jordan’s population. AZB suffersfrom acute water shortage as a consequence of the water shortage Jordan faces. Con-tinuous population growth as well as continuous economic and social developmentsof the basin increased the gap between supply and demand which led to the overabstraction of the ground water within the basin which ultimately resulted in thedeterioration of the ground water quality. Furthermore, it is important to note thatwater shortage can impose a very rigid constraint on economic development. Forexample, in a study by Bender et al. (1989) that investigated water availability incentral Jordan, it was found that ground water resources in that part of Jordan areinadequate to exploit oil shale deposits as this industry requires large amounts ofwater.
In such a difficult and complicated combination of limited and to some extentunreliable resources, uneven demand distribution and in some instances highly un-certain, continuously increasing gap between supply and demand, threatened groundwater quality, and the need for additional water resources to support urgently needed
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industries, the development of a Water Management Support System (WMSS) thatintegrates all current and future resources, as well as all current and future demandsinto one tool is crucial to the sustainability of the water resources management inthe basin.
2 Background
Recently water is viewed as a valuable resource that should be managed in asustainable way even in water rich countries. Needless to say that, in water scarcecountries, the notion of the sustainability of water resources management is morecrucial to the sustainability of their economic and social development. Lockus (2000)defined the sustainability of water resources management as “. . . water resourcesmanagement designed and managed to fully contribute to the objectives of thesociety now and in the future, while maintaining their ecological, environmental,and hydrological integrity”. Integrated water resources management that takes intoconsideration the interaction among the different physical, environmental, socio-economical, political, and legal components is essential to the sustainability of thewater resources and hence to the sustainability of the social and economic develop-ments. Furthermore, management scenarios that consider the current and the futurestatus of the water resources and the demands as well as the socioeconomic andregional development (Lanini et al. 2004; Mylopoulos et al. 2004; Araujo de et al.2004) and economic evaluation (Yurdussev and O’Connel 2005) are essential to theassessment, evaluation, and effective management of the water resources in the shortand long runs.
The high level of awareness regarding the need for a more sustainable waterresources management has triggered worldwide efforts by researchers and waterauthorities to develop and implement models that optimize water usage by com-peting demands under conditions of water scarcity at macro scale, i.e. basin level.Yen and Chen (2001) analyzed allocation strategies for the water resources in SouthTaiwan, three strategies were tested under different hydrological conditions andconstraints of groundwater abstractions. It was found that the preferable resolutionis to construct reservoirs and weirs, so that the strategically stored water can beutilized in the wet season, and support the shortage during the dry season. Jenkinset al. (2004) investigated the current management practices for the Californiawater supply for the purpose of its optimization; the CALVIN model which is aneconomic-engineering optimization model that explicitly integrates the operationof water facilities, resources, and demands for California’s water supply was used.Jenkins et al. (2001) provides details of the CALVIN model. Yamout and El-Fadel(2005) developed a water resources allocation model to serve as a multisectoraldecision support system for water resources management. The model considers multisources, competing demands, costs and charges associated with the different sourcesand demands including transmission distance. The model takes into considerationsocio-economic factors as well. The model was applied to Greater Beirut area.Trombino et al. (2007) analyzes Business As Usual (BAU) scenarios for addressingthe eutrophication issue of the PO Basin-North Adriatic coastal zone continuum.
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A multidisciplinary approach that combines Ecological and Economic disciplinesfor shaping cost effective strategies was developed and implemented. Loukas et al.(2007) developed a model for the purpose of evaluating the water resources man-agement strategies in Thessaly region in Greece which includes two basins namelythe Pinios River basin and the Lake Karla basin. It was found that the intense andextensive agriculture of water demanding crops, such as cotton accompanied bythe absence of proper water resources management practices have led to a signif-icant water demand increase, which was satisfied by the over-exploitation of thegroundwater resources. This unsustainable practice has deteriorated the alreadydisturbed water balance and accelerated water resources degradation. Shourian et al.(2008) developed a water resources planning model for Sirvan basin in west Iranby integrating Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm and MODSIM for thepurpose of allocating water among the different competing demands in an optimumway within this basin. Wang et al. (2008) developed a dynamic model for equitabledistribution of water in water-shortage areas for the purpose of optimally satisfyingthe requirements of each locality taking into consideration ecological and economicalwater needs, given limited supplies, and to maximize the total economic benefit of theentire area. The model was applied to The Heihe River Basin in northwest China.
In Jordan, a country classified among the ten poorest countries in the worldin water resources, the sustainability of water resources management is extremelycrucial to the sustainability of the socio-economic development of the country. AsAZB is the mostly developed and heavily populated basin in Jordan, in addition tothe fact that the basin plays a central role in the water resources management inJordan, the water resources in the basin have received great attention from re-searchers as well as from decision makers over the last two decades. Several studiesthat evaluated the available water resources in the basin were conducted i.e. safeyield of ground and/or surface water (BGR 1994, 1998; USGS 1998; Al-Abed et al.2005; Al-Abed and Al-Sharif 2008). Other studies proposed management scenariosthat considered both sides of the equation; the resources and the demands, theirquantities and quality in addition to the socio-economy of the basin (ARD 2001;Grabow and McCornick 2007). Furthermore, unconventional water resources suchas reuse of treated wastewater, desalination of brackish water and grey waterreuse were evaluated by several researchers as a promising option to bridge thecontinuously enlarging gap between fresh water resources and demands (Gur andAl-Salem 1992; Mohsen and Al-Jayyousi 1999; Jaber and Mohsen 2001; McCornicket al. 2002; Al-Jayyousi 2003; Fatta et al. 2006; Mohesn 2007).
Despite the relatively large number of studies that tackle the different aspectsof the water resources and demands in AZB, no single study that integrates all theavailable resources and demands that takes into consideration the socio-economicdevelopment of the basin for the purpose of developing a water resources manage-ment plan at the basin level has been performed. The study presented in this paper,aims at the development of a WMSS for AZB that integrates all the resources bothconventional and non conventional, and all the demands as well. The study considersthe current conditions of water availability as well as the possible evolution of newresources and new demands for the year 2025. The socio-economic development ofthe basin over the next twenty years is taken into consideration as well.
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3 The Study Area
3.1 General Description
AZB lies in the northern part of Jordan, the area of which is about 4,586 km2
with about 4,074 km2 in Jordan and 512 km2 in Syria (ARD 2001). The averageannual precipitation in the western part of the basin is about 400 mm, while theaverage annual precipitation in the eastern part is about 150 mm with most of theprecipitation occurring between October and May (Abderahman and Abu Rukah2006). AZB, shown in Fig. 1 includes the two largest cities in Jordan which are thecapital Amman, and Zarqa city in addition to large parts of Mafraq, Jerash and Balqagovernorates. About 52% of the industries in Jordan are located in Zarqa city whichis part of AZB (Mrayyan and Hussein 2004).
3.2 Water Resources in the Study Area
The main water resources in AZB are ground water, surface water and treatedwastewater. The safe yield of AZB aquifer is estimated at 88 MCM/year (ARD2001). Water is abstracted from more than 800 abstraction wells in AZB for differentpurposes, domestic, agricultural, and industrial, the majority of which are privatelyowned. Figure 2 shows the spatial distribution of abstraction wells and springs in
Fig. 1 Amman Zarqa basinin Jordan
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Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of abstraction wells and springs in AZB
AZB for the different uses. Based on historical abstractions from these wells, AZBaquifer was divided into 14 abstraction zones as shown in Fig. 3.
Zarqa River is the main water course in the basin. The catchment area of theZarqa River watershed is about 3,900 km2. The Zarqa River watershed has two mainbranches which are the Amman-Zarqa draining the high rainfall areas of the EasternEscarpment of the Jordan Rift Valley and parts of the Jordan Highlands, and theWadi Dhuliel draining the more arid areas of the Jordan Highlands and Plateau. Theaverage annual stream flow of Zarqa River is estimated at 68 MCM (Al-Salihi 2006).
Treated wastewater is an important water resource in the basin. Currently thereare five Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs) in AZB which are As Samra,Al-Baqa’a, Jerash, Abu Nsair, and Al-Mafraq. The first four of these WWTPs
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Fig. 3 Ground water abstraction zones in AZB
discharge their effluent to Zarqa River. Among these WWTPs, As Samra is thelargest which treats about 90% of the wastewater generated in the basin. The influentto these WWTPs was estimated at about 95 MCM for the year 2005 (MWI 2004).
Springs are another fresh water resource in the basin. There are about 150 inAZB the annual discharge of which is estimated at 8 MCM. Some of these springswith relatively considerable discharge are utilized for domestic water supply such asAl-Qayrawan spring which supplies Jerash city with water for domestic use.
3.3 Evolution of New Water Resources in the Study Area
The two main potential additional water resources in the future are the Disi Aquiferand the Red Sea. These two sources will be exploited by two under investigationprojects which are the Disi project and the Red Sea Dead Sea Canal (RSDSC)project. The Disi project consists of pumping, treating, and transporting the waterfrom the Disi aquifer south of Jordan to Amman a distance of 325 km. This projectis expected to provide 100 MCM/year of drinking water for 100 years. The Disiproject is part of the Business As Usual scenario. The RSDSC project consists oftransporting the water from the Red Sea in Aqaba to the Dead Sea area where itwill be desalinated and transported to Amman. The transportation system consistsof a pipeline, a tunnel and an open channel. The desalinated water is estimated at850 MCM/year, two thirds of which will be for Jordan which is about 570 MCM/year,while the remaining one third will be given to the Palestinian Authority and to Israel.Besides helping provide large quantities of drinking water to Jordan, Palestine andIsrael, the RSDSC project will help revive the Dead Sea by elevating its level viabrine disposal which is now declining at a rate of about one meter per year. TheRSDSC project is still at the very early stages of performing feasibility studies. The
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RSDSC project is a scenario by itself and constitutes part of the optimistic scenarioas well.
3.4 Water Demands in the Study Area
252 domestic demand sites were identified by the National Water Master Plan(NWMP) (MWI 2004) in AZB which correspond to the domestic settlements inthe basin. Some of these demand sites are large parts of big cities like Amman andZarqa which represent hundreds of thousands of people. However others are smallsettlements of few hundred people. Each set of demand sites that receive waterfrom the same source were grouped together to make the modeling task possible.Domestic demand sites within AZB were grouped into 27 demand sites. AZB alsosupplies some demand sites outside the basin in Irbid governorate. Treated waste-water stored in King Talal Dam (KTD) is transported via a pipeline to King AbdullaCanal (KAC) where the water is reused for irrigation in the middle and southernJordan valley after mixing with KAC water.
Agriculture is the largest water consumer in Jordan and in AZB as well. Accordingto the NWMP (MWI 2004), agricultural water demand was about 51% of thetotal demand in AZB for the year 2005. Agricultural water demand in AZB isconcentrated in two areas which are Zarqa River watershed and the highlands. Itis important to note that a high percentage of the ground water abstraction in AZBtakes place at these two areas for irrigation. One thousand one hundred twenty-sevenagricultural demand sites were identified in AZB by the NWMP (MWI 2004). Thesedemand sites were grouped together into 11 demand sites to make modeling possible.
Industry is the third water user in the basin. Industrial water demand in the basinwas about 1.68% of the total water demand for the year 2005 which is not reallyhigh. Sixty one industries that consume water either in the industrial process or in thecooling process have been identified by the NWMP (MWI 2004) in AZB. However,most of these industries consume small quantities of water like 10 m3/day or less. Thelargest water consumer in the basin is the petroleum refinery which consumes about2.5 MCM/year. Industrial demand sites within AZB were grouped into nine demandsites.
Touristic water consumption refers to the water consumed by hotels and furnishedapartments (MWI 2004). Touristic demands were added to the closest domesticdemand site as the water for touristic activities is supplied by the domestic watersupply.
Unaccounted for water which is defined as the difference between water suppliedand water billed was estimated at 13.69% of the total water demand and at 41% ofthe domestic water demand in the basin for the year 2005 (MWI 2004). Unaccountedfor water includes two main parts which are physical losses from the distributionnetwork and administrative losses. Figure 4 shows the spatial distribution of demandsites within the basin. Table 1 shows a summary of the different demands in AZB forthe year 2005.
3.5 Future Trends in Water Demands in the Study Area
A two day water vision workshop was held in AZB in 2005 for the purpose of iden-tifying driving forces on water demands as well as their future trends. Stakeholders
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Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of demands in AZB
from different governmental and non governmental organizations participated in theworkshop. The workshop showed that there will be an increase in domestic waterdemand over the next twenty years as a result of continuous population growth andas a result of improving life standards which will result in an increased per capita use.Agricultural demand was projected to decrease over the next twenty years as a resultof better management of irrigation water. It was also concluded that there will besome growth in the touristic water demand as a result of building new hotels. Increasein industrial water demand was expected as a result of the expected future investmentin the industrial sector. Unaccounted for water was projected to drop as a result ofwater supply maintenance and upgrade (Ker Rault et al. 2006). It is important tonote that the trends in the future water demands as concluded by the water visionworkshop were consistent with the trends projected in the NWMP (MWI 2004). TheNWMP has projected water demand for every demand site for all demand categories
Table 1 Demands withinAZB by sector in cubic metersand their percentages’ for theyear 2005
KAC Yarmouk River, KTD, Zai WTP, irrigation demandMukeibeh wells, Taiberia Lake, sites in the Jordan valleyside wadis and Al-Wehda dam
Zai WTP KAC and Abu Zeighan Dabouq reservoirdesalination plant
Dabouq Zai WTP and Al-Muntazah Res. West Amman and part ofBalqa governorate
Al-Muntazah GW south of Jordan and Abu Alanda and Dabouq res.Sweimeh desalination plant
Khaw Al-Azraq well field and Zarqa and Russeifa cities,AZB aquifer Ein ghazal, and small settlements
in Zarqa governorateBirin reservoir Mihib and Birin springs Some villages in Zarqa, in Balqa
and AZB aquifer and in Jerash governorates andBaqa’a camp in Balqa governorate
Zatari and Umlulu AZB aquifer Mafraq Governorate, smallreservoirs settlements in Jerash, Ramtha
and Huson in Irbid governorate
in AZB for the year 2020. These projections were extrapolated for the year 2025 andused in the WMSS developed in this paper.
3.6 Transfer System in the Study Area
Transfer system links supplies and demand sites. Having a thorough knowledge ofthe transfer system in the basin is essential to understanding the developed WMSS.Table 2 summarizes the main reservoirs in AZB, their water sources and the demandsites they supply.
4 Model Selection
Due to the complexity of water resources management at the basin level, severalmodels have been developed over the last three decades to help allocate the availablewater resources among the different users in an optimum way, such as (ACRES;Sigvaldason 1976), RIver BAsin SIMulation (RIBASIM; Delft Hydraulics 1991),Model Simulation software (ModSim; Labadie 1995), Water Evaluation And Plan-ning (WEAP) system (SEI 1999), RiverWare (Zagona et al. 2001), CalSim (Draperet al. 2004), Mike basin (DHI 2006). The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP)software developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) was selected forthe purpose of this study. WEAP is an integrated water resources management tooldesigned to evaluate user developed scenarios that accommodate changes in the bio-physical and socio-economic conditions of watersheds over time (Raskin et al. 1992;Yates et al. 2005). WEAP integrates hydro-geologic modeling and water allocationinto one tool. In this study, the water allocation part of the WEAP was used. WEAPutilizes a constrained optimization algorithm to allocate water among competingdemands in a basin. It maximizes demand sites’ coverage subject to constraints of
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water quantity, water quality, user defined demand priority, user defined supplypreference, and transfer line maximum capacity. WEAP solves the optimizationalgorithm for demand sites of priority one first, the algorithm is then solved fordemand sites of priority two and so forth. When the algorithm is solved for a certaindemand priority, demand sites with priorities lower than the priority being solvedfor, are turned off. The allocation algorithm implemented in the WEAP is detailedin the WEAP user’s guide (SEI 2005).
5 WEAP Data Base
WEAP constructs a network that consists of water resources and demand sitesconnected by links that deliver water from the resource node to the demand site.Return flow links which return wastewater from the demand site to WWTPs areimportant part of the WEAP network. Treated wastewater is then transferred fromthe WWTPs to the reuse site or to the ultimate disposal water course. WEAPrepresentation of AZB is shown by Fig. 5. Running the WEAP requires the input of
Taiberia Lake
Jordan River
Dead Sea
KAC
DISIRSDSC
Transmission LinkReturn Link
Demand Site
WWTP
Well Field
Surface Tank
Streams
Fig. 5 WEAP representation of AZB
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Table 3 Supply preference for the main demand sites in AZB
Dabouq Abu Zeighan KAC MuntazahAl-Muntazah Sweimeh, Qastal res. and Disi GW from outside basin RSDSCKhaw Muntazah AZB aquifer and Azraq –Birin tank AZB aquifer – –Zatari AZB aquifer – –Agri. Treated WW AZB aquifer –
a large data base for every element in the network. The data base needed is detailedin the WEAP user guide (SEI 2005). However, some of the data base elementsnecessary for understanding the results are mentioned here.
Data needed for ground water resources include maximum withdrawal rate,natural recharge, initial storage, and storage capacity. For surface water such asrivers WEAP requires among other data head flow, and evaporation rate for everyreach. For demand sites WEAP requires population, per capita annual water use,consumption, demand monthly variation, demand priority, and percentage loss.Water quality is an important piece of input data that should be input for everydemand site as well as for every resource for the parameters of concern. Fortransfer lines WEAP requires the maximum carrying capacity of the transfer line. ForWWTPs, WEAP requires among other data the treatment efficiency for the differentparameters as well as the plant capacity.
Demand site priority which tells the WEAP the order by which water should beallocated to the different users is an important piece of input. For AZB, domesticdemands were given priority over agricultural demands whenever domestic andagricultural demands compete for the same water resource. Due to the fact that mostindustrial demands are satisfied by privately owned wells, industrial demands weregiven the same priority as domestic demands.
In case a demand site is linked to more than one resource, the resources are rankedaccording to the demand site supply preference. Supply preference tells the WEAPthe order by which supplies deliver water to a demand site that is linked to morethan one supply. Supply preferences for the five transfer systems in the basin aresummarized in Table 3 for all the scenarios considered.
6 Scenario Development
Four scenarios are considered for the purpose of this study. These scenarios wereconstructed to reflect the effect of future trends in water demands as concluded by thewater vision workshop and by the NWMP and to investigate the impact of importantplanned projects on the management of the water resources in AZB over the nexttwenty years, for the year 2025. These scenarios are:
6.1 Business As Usual Scenario (BAU)
This scenario assumes that the factors that affect water use such as population growthrate, improving life standard, economic growth and improving irrigation practices
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will follow a predicted trend over the next twenty years. Elements of the BAUscenario are summarized bellow:
1. Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) projected demands for all demand sitesfor all categories including net losses for the year 2020 were extrapolated for theyear 2025 and used for the BAU scenario,
2. By the year 2025, Al-Wehda dam will store water to its maximum capacity of110 MCM, the dead storage of which is 30 MCM. 50 MCM will be allocated toZai Water Treatment Plant (WTP) and the remaining 30 MCM will be used forirrigation in the Jordan valley,
3. The Disi project will be operated at full capacity of 100 MCM by the year 2025,4. Sweimeh project supplies the basin with 38 MCM per year which already started
in 2007,5. A new pipeline is proposed from Al-Muntazah reservoir to Khaw reservoir
which supplies Zarqa and Russeifa cities, and6. Pipelines’ capacities are increased by three folds to be able to deliver the
increased supply. However the capacities of pipelines that deliver water fromground water sources were not increased because ground water is alreadyexploited to its safe yield.
6.2 Advanced Wastewater Treatment Scenario (AWWT)
As a result of the acute water shortage Jordan faces, wastewater is viewed as animportant resource that should be utilized more effectively. Wastewater generatedin AZB for the year 2005 was about 95 MCM, assuming that an average of 20%was lost in the treatment process, 76 MCM were available for reuse. This numberis estimated to double by the year 2025 which suggests that treated wastewater inthe basin deserves a more serious second look as an important resource. Currentlytreated wastewater in AZB is used for restricted irrigation upstream of KTD andfor unrestricted irrigation downstream of KTD after mixing with KAC water. TheAWWT scenario assumes that wastewater of As Samra effluent is treated to theadvanced level for the removal of nitrogen, and phosphorus in addition to disin-fection and desalination so that it can be reused for unrestricted irrigation in thebasin instead of ground water. It is important to note that the study by ARD (2001)concluded that advanced wastewater treatment of As Samra effluent is economicallyfeasible if the effluent is used for unrestricted irrigation instead of ground water. Thisscenario is a child scenario of the BAU scenario which means that all elements thatapply to the BAU scenario apply to the AWWT scenario. This scenario assumesthe construction of several pipelines to transfer the water to the reuse sites withinthe basin.
6.3 Red Sea Dead Sea Canal Project (RSDSC) Scenario
The main element of this scenario is the implementation of the RSDSC project bythe year 2025. This scenario is a child scenario of the BAU scenario which meansthat all the elements of the BAU scenario apply to this scenario.
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6.4 Optimistic Scenario
This optimistic scenario combines the AWWT scenario and the RSDSC scenario.This scenario is also a child scenario of the BAU scenario which means that all theelements of the BAU scenario apply to this scenario.
7 Sensitivity Analyses
About 80% of the water used at domestic demand sites returns to the wastewatertreatment plants which depends on the consumption at the demand sites. Consump-tion refers to the water used at the demand sites that does not reach the wastewatertreatment plant, such as water used for gardening. So, model calibration was made bycomparing measured inflows to the wastewater treatment plants by MWI to modelcalculated inflows. Data input for demand sites that affect inflow to the wastewatertreatment plants are population, Annual per capita water use, consumption, monthlyvariation which refers to the monthly demand as a percentage of the annual demand,and loss from the distribution system. Population, Annual per capita water use, andloss from the distribution system for the year 2005 as well as for the year 2020 wereobtained from the NWMP (MWI 2004). In the NWMP population was projectedfor the year 2020 based on population growth rates made by the Department ofStatistics who follow sound bases in making their projections. Annual per capita usewas estimated by MWI on the bases of the projected available water resources withinthe next twenty years as well as the expected improvement in the living standardsof the people as a result of the expected socio-economic development. Currentnetwork losses were calculated by MWI by performing water mass balance, that is;water pumped to consumers against water billed. Projected network losses were thenestimated on the bases of planned projects for network rehabilitation. Errors in thetwo left pieces of input which are consumption at demand sites and monthly variationare believed to be responsible for the discrepancies between MWI measured inflowsto the wastewater treatment plants and model calculated inflows as no direct methodwas used for their estimation.
8 Model Calibration and Validation
For the purpose of model calibration, monthly variation and consumption at thedemand sites were adjusted by trial and error so that the differences between MWImeasured inflows to the wastewater treatment plants and model calculated inflowsare minimized. The year 2005 data was used for model calibration and the year 2006data was used for model validation.
Figures 6, and 7 show the calibrated monthly variation and consumption forselected demand sites respectively. Figure 6 shows a gradual increase in the monthlyvariation from January to August with the maximum monthly variation taking placeduring summer months which are June, July and August and then a gradual decreasetill December. This trend in the monthly variation can be attributed to two reasons:the first is the natural increase in the per capita water use due to the temperatureincrease from winter to summer, and the second is the flux of people who are either
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Jan.
Feb.
Mar
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Apr
il
May
June
July
Aug
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Sep.
Oct
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ZA 4 Demand site
Abu Alanda0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
Monthly variation, %
Month
ZA 4
ZA 1
MF 22
Abu Alanda
ZA 6
West Amm.
Fig. 6 Calibrated monthly variation in the demand for selected demand sites
Jordanians working outside Jordan or tourists who come to Jordan during summer.Furthermore Fig. 6 shows another interesting feature which is that the monthlyvariation for large demand sites such as West Amman, Abu Alanda and Zarqa city
Jan.
Feb.
Mar
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Apr
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May
June
July
Aug
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Sep.
Oct
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ZA 6
ZA 10.00
2.00
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20.00C
onsumption, %
Month
Demand site
ZA 6
ZA 4
MF 22
ZA 1
Abu Alanda
West Amm.
Fig. 7 Calibrated consumption at selected demand sites
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almost doubles from winter to summer, while for small demand sites such as (ZA4,ZA1, and MF22) which represent small villages in Zarqa and Mafraq, the monthlyvariation increases by a factor of (1.10 to 1.30) from winter to summer. This canbe explained by the fact that monthly variation increase for large cities is due toboth natural increase and flux of people during summer, while for small villages theincrease in monthly variation is mainly due to the natural increase in the per capitause from winter to summer as the high flux of people during summer happens atthe large cities such as Amman and Zarqa. The small factor by which the monthlyvariation increases from winter to summer of 1.10 in some of the small communitiesis most probably due to water shortage during summer. Figure 7 shows the calibratedmonthly consumption at selected demand sites. This figure shows that consumptionincreases from winter to summer for all demand sites as a result of increasing outdooractivities due to the higher temperatures. This figure also shows that consumption forlarge cities such as Amman and Zarqa is higher than that for small villages such asZA1, ZA4 and MF22. Consumption for large cities ranged between about 15% and20% and for small communities ranged between 10% and 15%.
Figure 8 shows a comparison between calculated and measured influent to AsSamra WWTP before and after calibration. This Figure shows high agreementbetween model calculated and MWI measured influent to As Samra WWTP. In orderto test the validity of the calibration the model was run for the year 2006 data.Figure 8c shows good agreement between calculated and measured inflows to AsSamra WWTP for the year 2006 data. Other WWTPs also showed good agreementbetween model calculated and MWI measured inflows for 2005 and 2006 data.However, due to space limitation, the corresponding figures are not shown here.
9 Results and Discussion
The calibrated model was then run for the four scenarios considered for the year2025 which are the BAU, AWWT, RSDSC, and the optimistic scenario. The resultsfor the current account year and for the other scenarios are presented and discussedbelow.
9.1 Current Account Year
The results for the current account year as well as for the four scenarios consideredhere are presented in Tables 4, 5, 6, and 7. The results for the current account year arediscussed first to enable the reader to understand and evaluate the current situationand then the results for the four scenarios considered are presented and discussed ina comparative way.
Table 4 shows the unmet demand for the current account year as well as for theyear 2025 for the four scenarios. This table shows that demand sites with high currentwater shortages are Abu Alanda south of Amman, Zarqa and Russeifa cities, Jerashand Mafraq governorates and Ein Ghazal in Amman governorate. The total unmetdomestic demand for the current account year was 52.71 MCM. The largest water
�Fig. 8 Comparison between WEAP calc. and MWI meas. inflows to As Samra WWTP a beforecalibration 2005 data, b after calibration 2005 data, c after calibration 2006 data
A Water Management Support System for Amman Zarqa Basin in Jordan 3181
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
Jan.
Feb.
Mar. Apr
.M
ayJu
ne July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.Nov
.Dec
.
Cal. inf. (m3/d)
Meas. Inf. (m3/d)
(a) Before calibration
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
240000
260000
Jan.
Feb.
Mar. Apr
.M
ayJu
ne July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.Nov
.Dec
.
Calc. inf. m3/dMeas. Inf. m3/d
(b) Calibrated
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
240000
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Calc. inf. m3/d
Meas. Inf. m3/d
(c)
3182 A. Al-Omari et al.
Table 4 Unmet demand in MCM for all scenarios for all demands for the year 2025
From outside AZBOutflow to Dabouq res. 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00Outflow to Khaw res. 18.00 03.00 03.00 00.00 00.00Outflow to Muntazah res. 72.02 37.34 37.34 37.34 37.34Total 105.02 55.34 55.34 52.34 52.34
From disi aquiferOutflow to Aqaba NA 7.13 7.13 7.13 7.13Outflow to Karak NA 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35Outflow to Maan NA 2.04 2.04 2.04 2.04Outflow to Muntazah res. NA 87.70 87.70 87.70 87.70Outflow to Tafillah NA 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78Total NA 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
shortage of about 26 MCM took place at Abu Alanda demand site which receiveswater from Al-Muntazah reservoir. The second major water shortage took place atZarqa and Russeifa cities which receive water from Khaw reservoir. The shortageat Zarqa and Russeifa cities for the year 2005 was 17.44 MCM as given in Table 4.Mafraq and Jerash governorates which receive water from well fields within AZBaquifer via Zatari reservoir also suffered from water shortages during this year of3.36 and 4.32 MCM respectively. Figure 9 shows the monthly distribution of theunmet demand for these demand sites for the current account year. This figure showsthat most of the unmet demand took place during summer at the large demand siteswhich are Abu Alanda and Zarqa and Russeifa cities, while the unmet demand wasalmost uniformly distributed for small demand sites. Investigation of Table 6 whichshows ground water abstractions from AZB and from ground water sources outside
Table 7 Percent demand site coverage for the different demand sites for the different scenarios
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Abu AlandaBAU and AWWT 100 100 100 100 100 100 72 63 94 100 100 100RSDS and Opt. 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Fig. 9 Distribution of unmetdomestic demand for theyear 2005
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Jan.
Feb
.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g.
Sep
.
Oct
.
No
v.
Dec.
Un
met
dem
an
d,
MC
M
Abu Alanda
Ein Ghazal
Zarqa & Rus.
Maf. Gov.
Jerash gov.
the basin shows that 7.43 MCM within AZB were not allocated to any demand site.This water can be reallocated to the supply zones that supply Jerash and Mafraqgovernorates. However the deficiency in Zarqa city and Ein Ghazal could not havebeen satisfied without over abstraction of AZB aquifer. Table 4 also shows that theunmet agricultural demand for the year 2005 was about 187 MCM the majority ofwhich took place at the high lands and at Al-Hallabat area. The unmet industrialdemand for the current account year in the basin was about 0.74 MCM the majorityof which took place at demand site five which includes the petroleum refinery andAl-Hussein thermal power plant. The total unmet demand for the year 2005 wasabout 240 MCM the majority of which is for agriculture. This deficiency is based onimposing a limit on ground water abstraction from inside and from outside the basin,however, in the actual situation part of this demand was satisfied by over abstraction.
9.2 Scenarios Comparison
Table 4 shows that for the BAU scenarios, there is significant unmet domesticdemand at three sites which are Abu Alanda the unmet demand for which is11.85 MCM, Mafraq governorate the unmet demand for which is 4.06 MCM andJerash governorate, the unmet demand for which is 9.25 MCM. The unmet demandat Baqa and Zarqa villages is only 0.13 MCM. Table 7, which shows monthly demandsite coverage as a percentage shows that at Abu Alanda demand site, the deficiencywas observed mainly in July and August while little deficiency was observed inSeptember. However, for Mafraq and Jerash governorates the deficiency is distrib-uted year around, it is more severe though during summer. Investigation of Tables 4and 5 show that there is a saving of 15 MCM from Al-Azraq well field for the BAUscenario as only 3 MCM were pumped to Khaw reservoir from Al-Azraq well fieldas supply preference was given first to Al-Muntazah reservoir and then to Al-Azraqwell field and AZB aquifer as given in Table 2. By changing the supply preferencefor Khaw reservoir to Al-Azraq well field first, to Al-Muntazah reservoir secondand to AZB aquifer third, the 15 MCM delivered from Al-Muntazah reservoir toKhaw reservoir will be saved which will be enough to satisfy the unmet demand at
A Water Management Support System for Amman Zarqa Basin in Jordan 3185
Abu Alanda demand site of 11.85 MCM. Table 6 also shows that 12.04 MCM aresaved from AZB aquifer for the BAU scenario, in addition to the 3.15 MCM thatwill be saved at Al-Muntazah reservoir which makes about 15.2 MCM, this watercan be reallocated to the supply zones that supply Mafraq and Jerash governoratesthe total deficiency of which is about 13.3 MCM. So for the BAU by changing thesupply preference for Khaw reservoir and reallocating saved ground water fromAZB aquifer to supply zones that supply Mafraq and Jerash governorates, domesticdemand can be satisfied 100% in the basin. The unmet industrial demand for thisscenario is about 0.4 MCM. Apparently this demand can be satisfied from the savingsin the ground water. The deficiency in agricultural demand for this scenario is about143 MCM as given in Table 4.
For the AWWT scenario, deficiency in the domestic demand is the same as for theBAU scenario as given in Table 4. Investigation of Table 6 shows that the savingsfrom AZB aquifer for this scenario is 33 MCM as some of the agricultural demandsites that were supplied from AZB aquifer now use advanced treated wastewater.So the deficiency in the domestic demand within the basin can be satisfied byreallocating the saved ground water to the zones that supply Mafraq and Jerashgovernorates the deficiency for which is about 13.3 MCM. For this scenario, toovercome the deficiency in Abu Alanda demand site, supply preference for Khawreservoir has to be changed. First preference can be given to AZB aquifer or toAl-Azraq well field rather than to Al-Muntazah reservoir. Whether to set thepreference first to AZB aquifer or to Al-Azraq well field depends on the decisionmaker objective, if it is desired to save the water at Al-Azraq well field for otherpurposes, preference should be given first to AZB aquifer, however if it is desiredto save AZB aquifer to allow it to restore its level and improve its water quality,preference should be given first to Al-Azraq well field. The unmet industrial demandunder this scenario is about 0.4 MCM which can be easily satisfied from the savedground water in AZB aquifer. So under the AWWT scenario domestic and industrialdemands can be satisfied 100% in AZB with some savings in the ground water.Part of the savings in AZB aquifer ground water can be used to satisfy part of thedeficiency in agricultural demand within the basin which will make the deficiency inagricultural demand for this scenario about 15 MCM. Investigation of Table 6 showsthat the Disi aquifer will be exploited to full capacity under both BAU scenario andAWWT scenario.
For the RSDSC scenario, the deficiency in the domestic demand is 4.06 MCM forMafraq governorate and 9.25 MCM for Jerash governorate. Investigation of Table 6shows that the savings in AZB aquifer for the RSDSC scenario is 14.9 MCM whichcan be reallocated among supply zones to satisfy the unmet demand in Mafraq andJerash governorates. The unmet industrial demand under this scenario is about 0.40MCM which can also be satisfied from the savings in AZB aquifer. Table 5 showsthat under this scenario the 18 MCM from Al-Azraq well field has not been used,which gives the decision-maker additional options what to do with the 18 MCM fromAl-Azraq well field. They can be saved to be used in Al-Azraq governorate if there isa need, they can be used within AZB and an equivalent amount of AZB aquifer canbe saved or the pumping from the RSDSC or from the DISI aquifer can be reduced.It can also be used to satisfy some of the unmet agricultural demand in the basin aswill be seen later. Table 5 shows that the pumping from the RSDSC for this scenariois 50.26 MCM. Figure 10 shows the monthly distribution of the pumping from the
3186 A. Al-Omari et al.
Fig. 10 Outflow from theRSDSC for both RSDSCand optimistic scenarios
RSDSC for this scenario. Table 5 also shows that the DISI aquifer will be exploitedto full capacity under this scenario. The deficiency in agricultural demand under thisscenario is 142.6 MCM, part of which can be satisfied by utilizing the unused 18 MCMfrom Al-Azraq well field, which leaves the deficiency in agricultural demand at about125 MCM at the estimated pumping of 50 MCM from the Red Sea.
For the optimistic scenario which combines both the AWWT and the RSDSC,Table 4 shows that the deficiency in the domestic demand is 4.06 MCM for Al-Mafraqgovernorate and 9.25 MCM for Jerash governorate. Table 6 shows the savings fromAZB aquifer under this scenario is about 35 MCM, part of which can be reallocatedto satisfy the unmet demand in both Mafraq and Jerash governorates in addition tothe unmet industrial demand of 0.40 MCM. Table 5 also shows that for this scenario,the 18 MCM from Al-Azraq well field have not been used. Again the decision makerhas some options how to manage the excess water based on his objectives and theprevailing circumstances. The deficiency in agricultural demand for this scenariois about 34 MCM as given in Table 4 which can be satisfied from the savings inabstraction from AZB and Al-Azraq well field which was unused under this scenario.It is important to mention here that for both the AWWT and the optimistic scenarios,the results showed that agricultural demand for both middle and southern ghors inthe Jordan valley can still be satisfied despite the use of As Samra effluent within thebasin upstream of KTD.
Results also showed that west Amman and Balqa governorates can be coveredfor all the scenarios from KAC and Abu Zeighan desalination plant. Table 4 showsthat the unmet demand at west Amman and Balqa governorate is zero for all thescenarios. Table 5 shows that water allocated to Dabouq reservoir which supplieswest Amman and Balqa governorate from Al-Muntazah reservoir is zero underall scenarios. It is important to remember that the BAU scenario assumes thatAl-Wehda dam will supply KAC with 80 MCM by the year 2025 which lookssufficient to satisfy west Amman, and Blaqa governorate.
10 Conclusions
A WMSS has been developed for AZB in Jordan using the (WEAP). The modelhas been calibrated for the year 2005 data and validated for the year 2006 data.The model was run for the year 2005 which is the base year as well as for four
A Water Management Support System for Amman Zarqa Basin in Jordan 3187
scenarios for the year 2025 which are BAU scenario, AWWT scenario, RSDSCscenario, and optimistic scenario which combine both the RSDSC and AWWT.Results showed that there is a deficiency in meeting the domestic demand and theagricultural demand for the year 2005. Results also showed that for the four scenariosconsidered in this paper the domestic demand as well as the industrial demand can besatisfied for all the scenarios by managing supply preference for the main distributionreservoirs and by reallocating water among abstraction zones. Results showed thatthe agricultural demand can only be satisfied under the AWWT and the optimisticscenarios both of which considers the advanced wastewater treatment option for AsSamra effluent. For the RSDSC scenario, agricultural demand can be satisfied bypumping additional water from the Red Sea. The developed model is calibrated andvalidated for AZB which makes it an effective tool that the decision maker can usein managing the water resources in AZB.
Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the European Union for funding this study.This study was accomplished as part of the MEditerranean Development of Innovative Technologiesfor integrAted waTer managEment (MEDITATE) project number PL 509112. The authors wouldalso like to thank the Ministry of Water and Irrigation staff who helped throughout the differentstages of this project. Thanks are especially due to Eng. Suzan Taha, Eng. Bassam Saleh, TahirAl-Monani and Nidal Khalifa.
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