WORLD ENVIRONMENT DAY - JUNE 5

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2013: Issue 373, Week: 03rd - 06th JuneA Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)

WISE M NEY

(Saurabh Jain)

Contents

Equity 4-7

Derivatives 8-9

Commodity 10-13

Currency 14

IPO 15

Fixed Deposit 16

Mutual Fund 17-18

EDITORIAL STAFF

Editor Saurabh Jain

Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla

+Editorial Team

Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka

Vandana Bharti Tejas Seth

Sandeep Joon Dinesh Joshi

Vineet Sood Shitij Gandhi

Dhirender Singh Bisht Subhranil Dey

Parminder Chauhan Ajay Lakra

Mudit Goyal

Content Editor Kamla Devi

Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal

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n the week gone by, despite better than expected consumer confidence data

along with the jump in home values in U.S, the speculation that the US Federal IReserve will start withdrawing its monetary stimulus ruled the market and kept

the investors away to participate in the markets. On the euro front, the Europe's

largest economy, Germany, witnessed a rise in unemployment data. The adjusted

jobless rate held at 6.9 percent, just above a two-decade low of 6.8 percent. Japan's

Nikkei saw a correction of 7% over the week on the back of extreme volatility in the

Japanese government bond markets and confused statement from Fed Chief Ben

Bernanke. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered guidance for

the Chinese economy expansion to 7.75% from earlier estimates of 8%. According to

the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the global

economic growth will accelerate in 2014 with both the U.S. and Japan continuing to

outpace the euro area. The OECD sees U.S. gross domestic product rising 1.9 percent

this year and 2.8 percent in 2014, while Japan's will increase by 1.6 percent and 1.4

percent.

Back at home, the week gone by offered volatility ahead of dismal growth story of

Indian economy and the May expiry series. The sentiments were also weak because

government has postponed the GST schedule and gave an indication that it will be

implemented only after the general elections in 2014. India's Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) grew at 4.8% in the fourth quarter of FY13, a marginal improvement over the Q3

GDP growth rate of 4.7%. As expected the mining sector contracted more due to

continuous ban on mining in many states because of excessive mining and

environmental concerns. The GDP for the entire FY13 grew at 5%. Moreover, the

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chief has warned of upside risks to inflation and has

expressed worry over the country's high current account deficit. However this has

dampened market hopes for another interest rate cut at the central bank's policy

review on June 17. Expectation of normal monsoon this year is expected to boost

agriculture output, rural incomes, help in lowering agri inflation and will boost the

sentiments in capital markets and real economy as well.

On the commodities front, bullion counter may remain on firm note as strong physical

and ETF demand along with central banks buying may keep the prices well supported.

Crude oil prices will try to get cues from tensions in the Middle East and inventory

position along with the outcome of key economic indicators from US and euro zone.

This week investors will have a close eye on the various economic data such US ISM

manufacturing data, US trade balance, factory orders and Euro zone GDP figures along

with China's non manufacturing PMI, which will give further direction to the Metal and

energy. In agro pack, Castor seed and refined soya oil are likely to post further losses

on the back of dwindling overseas demand.

From The Desk Of Editor

4

NOTES:

1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second resistance respectively.

3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.

TREND SHEET

Stocks Closing Trend Date Rate S1 R1 S2 R2 Cl.

Price Trend Trend S/l

Changed Changed

SENSEX 20215 UP 02.05.13 19736 19500 19100 18800

S&P NIFTY 6124 UP 02.05.13 5999 6000 5900 5770

CNX IT 6390 DOWN 17.04.13 6236 6550 6700 6850

CNX BANK 12806 UP 25.04.13 12727 12600 12200 11900

ACC 1244 DOWN 17.01.13 1359 1230 1260 1300

BHARTIAIRTEL 315 UP 09.05.13 325 310 300 290

BHEL 206 DOWN 01.11.12 227 195 205 210

CIPLA 383 DOWN 30.05.13 383 400 415 425

DLF 206 DOWN 21.03.13 239 255 260 265

HINDALCO 107 UP 16.05.13 111 105 101 98

ICICI BANK 1183 UP 25.04.13 1177 1140 1110 1090

INFOSYS 2341 DOWN 17.04.13 2284 2450 2550 2650

ITC 354 UP 04.03.11 172 315 305 300

L&T 1427 DOWN 23.05.13 1418 1480 1500 1520

MARUTI 1637 UP 17.04.13 1494 1640 1600 1560

NTPC 157 UP 02.05.13 160 152 148 145

ONGC 334 UP 17.04.13 329 320 315 310

RELIANCE 837 DOWN 28.02.13 814 840 860 870

TATASTEEL 302 DOWN 07.02.13 390 340 350 360

NEWS

EX DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE

5-JUN-13 PAGEIND INTERIM DIVIDEND

6-JUN-13 ASIANPAINT FINAL DIVIDEND RS.36.50/- PER EQUITY

SHARE

6-JUN-13 ORIENTBANK DIVIDEND RS.9.20 PER SHARE

6-JUN-13 UNITEDBNK DIVIDEND RS 2.10 PER EQUITY SHARE

6-JUN-13 ALBK DIVIDEND OF RS.6/- PER SHARE

7-JUN-13 RALLIS DIVIDEND RS 1.30/- PER SHARE

10-JUN-13 TINPLATE DIVIDEND RE 1 PER SHARE

12-JUN-13 INGVYSYABK DIVIDEND RS 5.50 PER SHARE

13-JUN-13 BANKBARODA DIVIDEND - RS.21.50/- PER EQUITY SHARE

13-JUN-13 HDFCBANK FINAL DIVIDEND RS.5.50/- PER EQUITY

SHARE

13-JUN-13 PNB FINAL DIVIDEND RS.27 PER EQUITY SHARE

14-JUN-13 SYNDIBANK DIVIDEND RS.6.70/- PER SHARE

17-JUN-13 INDUSINDBK DIVIDEND RS.3/- PER EQUITY SHARE

18-JUN-13 CMC DIVIDEND RS.17.50 PER SHARE

20-JUN-13 IOB FINAL DIVIDEND RS.2/- PER EQUITY SHARE

20-Jun-13 SOUTHBANK DIVIDEND RE 0.70 PER EQUITY SHARE

20-JUN-13 NIITTECH DIVIDEND RS.8.50 PER SHARE

20-JUN-13 HAVELLS DIVIDEND RS.7.50 PER SHARE

20-JUN-13 CENTRALBK DIVIDEND RS 2.50 PER EQUITY SHARE

20-JUN-13 UNIONBANK DIVIDEND RS.8/- PER SHARE

21-JUN-13 DABUR FINAL DIVIDEND RE.0.85/- PER EQUITY

SHARE

24-JUN-13 INDIANB DIVIDEND RS.6.60 PER SHARE

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

DOMESTIC NEWS

Economy

• India's Gross domestic product expanded 4.8 percent annually, after rising by revised 4.7 percent a quarter ago. The annual rate matched economists' expectations.

Tyre

• Apollo Tyres is selling its South African business along with a passenger car tyre plant to Sumitomo Rubber Industries in a deal valued $60 million (about Rs 340 crore).

• JK Tyre & Industries Ltd plans to invest over Rs 800 crore to double the capacity of Chennai manufacturing facility over two years.

Information Technology

• Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has bagged a six-year contract from the Department of Posts (DoP) worth over Rs 1,100 crore. The end-to-end IT modernisation programme will equip India Post with modern technologies and systems to enable it to provide services to customers in an effective manner.

Oil & Gas

• ONGC is setting up an integrated gas processing plant in Maharashtra with an investment of nearly Rs 10,000 crore. The plant will have processing capacity of 10 mmscmd and a 30 megawatt captive power plant as part of the project.

• Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL) has approached global energy giants like Total SA of France and BP plc for reviving the stalled Rs 50,000 crore refinery-cum-petrochemical project at Vizag in Andhra Pradesh.

Power

• Tata Power has plans to expand the generation capacity of 4,000-MW Mundra plant, the country's first operational ultra mega power project, to 5,600 MW.

Aviation

• Jet Airways is planning to buy more single-aisle aircraft from Boeing, amid the airline seeking to operate code-share flights with Etihad Airways connecting as many as 23 domestic destinations with Abu Dhabi by 2016.

Mining & Minerals

• MOIL plans to enter coal mining and power generation if it gets blocks from the 17 earmarked by the Ministry of Coal for allocation to public sector units.

FMCG

• Dabur India announced expansion of its packaged food business with the launch of fruit juice-based drinking yoghurts under the Real Activ brand.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• According to a report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), NAR said US pending home sales index edged up by 0.3 percent to 106.0 in April after jumping by 1.5 percent to 105.7 in March. Economists had been expecting the index to increase by about 1.4 percent.

• US gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter was nudged down to an annualized rate of 2.4 percent as compared to the initial estimate of 2.5 percent and compared to a fourth quarter rise of 0.4 percent.

• US consumer confidence index jumped to 76.2 in May from an upwardly revised 69.0 in April. Economists had expected the index to climb to 71.5 from the 68.1 originally reported for the previous month.

• US initial jobless claims climbed to 354,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 344,000. The rebound surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to come in unchanged compared to the 340,000 originally reported for the previous week.

• Japan consumer price index, excluding fresh food, fell 0.4 percent year-on-year in April following a 0.5 percent drop in the previous month.

• Eurozone economic confidence strengthened in May, driven by brightening sentiment in all business sectors except for construction, survey results published by the European Commission. The economic confidence index climbed to 89.4 in May, in line with expectations, from 88.6 in April.

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5

BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

SMC Trend

SMC Trend

FMCGHealthcare

FTSE 100CAC 40

Auto BankRealty

Cap GoodsCons Durable

Oil & GasPower

NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500

NikkeiStrait times

Hang SengShanghai

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)

ITMetal

Down SidewaysUp

SMC Trend

Nifty BSE Midcap Nifty JuniorSensex BSE Smallcap S&P CNX 500

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

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2.632.75

1.76

1.05

1.48

2.27

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap

Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500

4.52

1.161.44

6.82

4.26

0.98

0.22

1.71

3.91

3.32

2.28

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index

Cons Durable Index

FMCG Index Healthcare Index

IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index

Power Index Realty Index

0.92

0.20 0.24

6.18

1.68

0.82

1.85

0.59

0.74

-7.00

-6.00

-5.00

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.

FTSE 100 CAC 40

-

977.30 970.70

- -181.90

387.90331.50

171.00 203.70

-400.00

-200.00

0.00

200.00

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600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

FII Activity MF Activity

10.6310.00

7.35 7.206.48

-6.18

3.622.91 2.51 2.08

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

Sun Pharma.Inds.

Tata Motors ITC Hero Motocorp

B H E L Cipla Tata Steel St Bk of India Sterlite Inds. Larsen & Toubro

10.8710.05

7.40 7.236.75

-6.24

-3.63-2.91 -2.90

-2.23

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

Sun Pharma.Inds.

Tata Motors ITC Hero Motocorp

B H E L Cipla Tata Steel St Bk of India DLF Maruti Suzuki

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year.

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

6®

Face Value (`) 10.00

52 Week High/Low 185.35/117.25

M.Cap ( Cr.) 23184.01

EPS ( ) 12.12

P/E Ratio (times) 12.63

Stock Exchange BSE

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VALUE PARAMETERS

% OF SHARE HOLDING

IDFC LIMITED CMP: 153.05 Upside: 25%Target Price: 192

Investment Rationale assets. •The asset quality of the company has improved on •IDFC intends to apply for the bank license as

YoY as well as QoQ basis in the quarter ended against its earlier stand of pure infrastructure March 2013. Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) financing company. According to the management has declined 43% YoY and 40% QoQ to Rs 85.12 over the past 36 months, they have realized that, crore at end March 2013. NNPA also declined 60% it is difficult to continuously focus on only YoY and 56% QoQ to 28.9 crore at the end March infrastructure space where there are other areas 2013. %GNPA declined 11 bps QoQ and 15 bps YoY of growth as well. It is prudent to diversify the to 0.15% at end March 2013. Meanwhile, the asset exposure and this is a strategic decision %NNPA eased 07 basis point QoQ and 10 bps YoY to taken by the management. 0.05% at end March 2013. Valuation

•Net Interest Income (NII) increased 10% YoY to The company has been performing well in the last 643 crore in Q4FY2013. Capital Adequacy Ratio couple of years reflected in growing loan book size,

improved to 22.1% at end March 2013 compared interest income, disbursements and profits. IDFC 20.8% at year ago, while eased from 22.5% a could also be one of the favored players to get new quarter ago. banking license as and when the Government and the

•Total borrowings outstanding on Mar'13 stood at Rs RBI take necessary action in this regard over the next 54227, up by 17%. During FY'13, the company did few quarters.its largest borrowings through External On the estimated book value of 100.43 for FY14E and Commercial Borrowings (ECB) in a single year of three year average P/BV of 1.91x, we expect the US $ 525 M. stock to see a price target of 192 in one year time

•Gross Loan book increased by 16% YoY to 56595 frame. crore at end March 2013. For FY'13, of the total loan book growth, about 50-60% is from refinance business. According to the management, the refinance business growth cannot continue in a big way going forward. For FY'14, management expects the loan book growth of 10-15% for the company. This would be from a mix of corporate funding, special business, refinancing and existing pipeline of book not fully disbursed as on date.

•Loan loss reserve ratio is currently at 1.7% of average assets of the company. Management has indicated that over the next 12 months, they intend to increase it to north of 2% of average

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` in cr

Particular Mar 2013 Mar 2014E Mar 2015E

Total Income 3,462.76 3,936.09 4,527.27

Pre-Tax Profit 2,593.56 3,037.88 3,538.50

Net Profit 1,836.20 2,152.67 2,492.59

EPS 12.06 14.10 16.32

BVPS 91.81 100.43 112.62

ROE 14.14 14.81 15.34

P/BV Chart

Face Value (`) 1.00

52 Week High/Low 181.70 / 102.50

M.Cap ( Cr.) 9139.95

EPS ( ) 6.36

P/E Ratio (times) 23.25

P/B Ratio (times) 1.92

Stock Exchange BSE

Public & Others 23.87

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` in cr

Particular Mar 2012 Mar 2013E Mar 2014E

Revenue 7,270.33 8,200.58 9,170.52

EBITDA 826.33 841.68 979.27

EBIT 663.39 776.24 937.54

Pre-Tax Profit 636.79 757.57 866.23

Net Profit 372.75 481.10 548.25

EPS 6.03 7.55 8.74

BVPS 77.08 83.39 87.92

ROE 7.75 9.63 10.61

VALUE PARAMETERS

% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale •In India, Tea business has been continuously doing well. Moreover, the company has gained volumes •In a key partnership milestone between the and market share in India. In FY13, prices were Starbucks Coffee Company and Tata Coffee increased to offset the higher raw material costs. Limited, a new roasting and packaging plant was The management has indicated that there will not inaugurated at Kushalnagar in Coorg, Karnataka. be any further price increases in near term. This world-class facility enables roasting and However, a call will be taken depending upon how packaging of green coffee beans for Starbucks the raw material prices behave in future.stores in India.

•Consolidated net sales of the company grew by •In coffee, the company continues to create a 11% for FY'13, largely due to strong value growth memorable beverage moments for its consumers and favorable translation gain. Strong through Tata Starbucks, a 50:50 joint venture performance was seen in South Asia, Australia and between Tata Global Beverages and Starbucks in non-branded operations.Coffee Company. Currently, Starbucks has a total

of 13 stores in India managed by Tata Starbucks. ValuationSeven of them are in Mumbai and rests are in The company continued to make steady progress in Delhi. As per the management, the store the tea, coffee and water categories, through profitability is robust. innovation, category expansion and strategic

•Apart from traditional coffee business of the alliances. Further the company has plans to make company, Eight O Clock is getting a strong new launches which would drive the future revenue foothold in pods and coffee machine markets, growth of the company. We expect the stock to see a which are the new emerging markets within US for price target of 184 in one year time frame on a one coffee business. Together with this, the year average P/E of 24.38x on FY14 (E) EPS of 7.55.introduction of new flavors of coffee will continue to drive growth in coffee business in future.

•NourishCo, an equal joint venture between Tata Global Beverages and PepsiCo India, is planning to establish 60-70 packaged water-bottling units across India by Dec 2014. NourishCo is operating pilot projects in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh now. These projects would end by Dec 2013.

•The company is planning to launch “Activate” as a premium functional beverage brand in India. The company had entered into a joint venture with Activate of the US in 2010. Activate manufactures and distributes vitamin enhanced flavoured drinks.

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P/E Chart

TATA GLOBAL BEVERAGES LIMITED CMP: 147.80 Upside: 25%Target Price: 184

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

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1.2 1.9 2.6 3.3 Close Price

54.21

13.91

6.57

25.32

Foreign

Institutions

Non Promoter Corporate Holding

Public & Others

Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

7

The stock closed at ̀ 122.10 on 30th May 2013. It made a 52-week low at 111.40

on 22nd May 2013 and a 52-week high at 155 on 16th August 2012. The 200 days

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is currently

at 177.70.

The stock has formed basing at lower levels and has rebounded sharply in the

recent past with volumes, which indicates a reversal in it. Moreover, looking at

the chart, it is clear that RSI is also trading in an oversold condition. One can Buy

in the range of 120-122 levels with closing below stop loss of 116 levels for the

target of 130-135 levels

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EQUITY

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

The stock closed at 66.85 on 30th May 2013. It made a 52-week low at 48.40 on

28th March 2013 and a 52-week high of 76.90 on 09th January 2013. The 200

days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at 89.29.

It has formed inverted head and shoulder but could not breach its neckline

earlier and fell down marginally. Again it managed to overcome its resistance

zone that is near to 67 levels, which show buying interest is developing once

again. There is a possibility of sharp breakout in the near term. One can Buy in

the range of 66-68 levels with closing below stop loss of 63 levels for the target

of 72-74 levels.

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The stock closed at 735.50 on 30th May 2013. It made a 52-week low at 441.35

on 31st May 2012 and a 52-week high at 1024.40 on 05th December 2012. The

200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at 488.15.

On the daily charts, it has consolidated above its 200 EMA in last one month and

is on the verge of breakout in the near term. One can Buy in the range of 735-740

levels with closing below stop loss of 720 levels for the target of 760-765 levels.

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Cox & Kings Limited

United Breweries Limited

Escorts Limited

®

DERIVATIVES

BASIS GAP IN NIFTY

In the May expiry week, domestic markets were range-bound and mostly remained under pressured around its resistances of 6200. The Friday's trade witnessed selling pressure, with the Index ending the week on the negative note. The range of 5900-6200 will remain crucial in the near term. The market is expected to remain volatile this week. If the Index sustains below the 6000 mark, it could fall sharply to 5850 levels. On the contrary, a sustained move beyond 6000 levels is extremely crucial to determine any further uptrend in the broader index. In fact, technically, the 200-day SMA is around the 5770 mark, while the 50-day SMA is around 5850 levels. The June contract ended the week at a premium of 5.00 points indicating short buildup. The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.24. The option open interest concentration continues to be at the 5900-strike put option, with open interest of above 50 lakh. This is followed by the 5800-strike puts, with open interest of above 45 lakh shares. Among call options, the highest open interest continues at the 6200 strike, with aggregate open interest of 42 lakh shares indicating that this level is a critical resistance to watch out for. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 14.44% on Friday, while the average IV of put options was 15.40%. However, in the current scenario the Index is expected to see stiff resistance around 6100 levels, while sustenance below the 6000 levels should take the Nifty down towards 5850 levels.

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)

FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST WEEK

(Derivative segment)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

16-May 17-May 20-May 21-May 22-May 23-May 24-May 27-May 28-May 29-May 30-May

®

FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS

(Derivative segment) `(Cr)

BUY57.1%

SELL42.9%

-357.76

1068.40

530.38

16.04

747.51

-1348.32

-480.38

132.94

713.82

1589.16

-1500.00

-1000.00

-500.00

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

17-May 20-May 21-May 22-May 23-May 24-May 27-May 28-May 29-May 30-May

613900

940400789500

11091001269900

2830400 2662200

31624003271650

1782150

13128501555700

3247450

2553900

3818150

4129850

5044100

2609450

1210050

665350

294500454700

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500

IBREALEST (JUN FUTURE)

Sell: Below `70

Target: `66

Stop loss: `72

HINDALCO ( FUTURE)

: `101

Target: `97

Stop loss: `103

JUN

Sell Below

PNB

Buy 740 PUT 27.00

Sell 720 PUT 19.00

Lot size: 500

BEP: 732.00

Max. Profit: 6000.00 (12.00*500)

Max. Loss: 4000.00 (8.00*500)

JUN

JUNOPTIONSTRATEGY

FUTURESTRATEGY

INFY

Buy JUN 2450. CALL 45.00

Sell 2500. CALL 30.00

Lot size: 125

BEP: 2465.00

Max. Profit: 4375.00 (35.00*125)

Max. Loss: 1875.00 ( 15.00*125)

JUN

ICICIBANK ( FUTURE)

Sell: Below `1148

Target: `1125

Stop loss: `1159

JUN

TATAMOTORSBuy 320 CALL 10.00Buy 300 PUT 6.00

Lot size: 1000Upside BEP: 336.00Downside BEP: 284.00Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 16000.00 (16.00*1000)

JUNJUN

VOLATILITY STRATEGYBULLISH STRATEGY

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

BEARISH STRATEGY

8

9

BHARTIARTL 9382000 7387000 -21.26 0.98 0.88 -0.10 29.49 30.64 1.15

DLF 21136000 16143000 -23.62 0.45 0.33 -0.12 55.17 51.35 -3.82

HINDALCO 24180000 25644000 6.05 0.75 1.11 0.36 37.54 32.76 -4.78

HINDUNILVR 7174500 8255500 15.07 1.32 0.94 -0.38 8.18 9.01 0.83

ICICIBANK 7011000 5847750 -16.59 1.14 0.68 -0.46 27.55 27.93 0.38

IDEA 6662000 5118000 -23.18 0.89 0.45 -0.44 32.84 34.94 2.10

INFY 3306750 2657750 -19.63 0.64 0.49 -0.15 20.24 23.70 3.46

ITC 25742000 22681000 -11.89 0.78 0.76 -0.02 19.40 23.80 4.40

JPASSOCIAT 54124000 57160000 5.61 0.38 0.48 0.10 60.75 53.15 -7.60

NTPC 12728000 10214000 -19.75 0.27 0.33 0.06 21.96 26.39 4.43

ONGC 9505000 7931000 -16.56 0.78 0.65 -0.13 28.87 28.66 -0.21

RANBAXY 3441500 3730500 8.40 0.56 0.57 0.01 39.96 42.15 2.19

RCOM 36832000 32032000 -13.03 0.96 0.75 -0.21 67.59 60.97 -6.62

RELIANCE 10823500 10305250 -4.79 0.37 0.47 0.10 23.20 25.63 2.43

NIFTY 24202750 17591300 -27.32 1.18 1.24 0.06 16.56 14.84 -1.72

SAIL 15264000 16204000 6.16 0.30 0.49 0.19 37.74 35.81 -1.93

SBIN 4834000 4808250 -0.53 0.47 0.41 -0.06 33.51 32.27 -1.24

TATASTEEL 17010000 16844000 -0.98 0.61 0.59 -0.02 33.85 32.35 -1.50

UNITECH 55670000 65620000 17.87 0.29 0.43 0.14 67.61 68.28 0.67

IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS

OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY

SCRIPTS PREV. * CURRENT ** % PREV.* CURRENT ** PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE

DERIVATIVES

* May Series ** Jun Series

Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has increased to

1.24 from 1.18. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a negative of

change in put call open interest ratio.

Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week

has decreased to 14.84% from 16.56%. The IV of the stock futures has changed

this week ranging from -7.6% to 4.43%.

Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week

has decreased by 27.32% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw

changes in their open interest ranging from -27.32% to 17.87%. UNITECH has the

maximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.

Statistical Analysis·

Open 6000.00 High 6131.00

Low 5936.10 Close 6124.05

NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS

®

14

15

16

17

18

19

5800

5900

6000

6100

6200

6300

24-May 27-May 28-May 29-May 30-May

Nifty Close IV

10®

Turmeric futures (July) is expected to consolidate in the range of 5850-6150

levels. Normally, North Indian demand comes during this period, but this

year fewer north Indian demands are being reported. As regards supply

scenario, in Warangal region wherein sowing normally start from July –

August month, the farmers may shift sugarcane and maize crop in the

coming days. Jeera futures (July) will possibly hover in the range of 13050-

13500 levels. Export demand is likely to improve in the coming weeks

because of lack of supplies from Syria and Turkey. In the second largest

cumin seed producer Syria cumin seed production may decrease, while,

yield in Turkey may be around 8,000-10,000 tonnes. In Delhi Khari Baoli spot

market, buyers are reported to be active. Chilli futures (June) will probably

trade with an upside bias taking support above 5550 levels. Normal demand

for medium quality & higher demand are being reported reported for

hybrid variety like Teja, 273 etc. On the supply front, in Haveri, Bydagi and

Madhya Pradesh region Red Chilli sowing will start from Jun - July month.

The downfall in Cardamom futures (July) is likely extended towards 715-

700 levels. This season, the total production is likely to be 12,000-14,000

tonnes The arrivals will start from July first week, while picking activity will

start from June and for drying it takes one month gap. A good quality &

quantity crop is expected in the coming period.

SPICES

CPO futures (June) is likely to move further higher towards 490-495 levels.

The depreciation in Rupee & positive sentiments prevailing in the domestic

& the international market amid expectation of higher demand ahead of

Ramandan may push the counter upside. CPO import parity hovers in the

negative territory to (USD -17.1 per tonnes) and likely to stay in the

negative territory in the days ahead due to weakness in the local currency.

Soybean futures (July) will possibly trade with a bearish bias & the downside

may get stretched towards 3550 levels, breaching 3630 levels. Several

bearish factors continue to pressure domestic soy meal, which include

competitive South American soy meal prices lower demand in the meal from

poultry feed industry due to sluggish production in poultry. Moreover,

cautious buying is getting featured in the beans because of prediction of

rise in area this season on reports of normal and timely monsoon. On the

international market, U.S soybean futures are likely to remain steady amid

tight old-crop supplies and higher demand for post-harvest shipments.

Mustard futures (July) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3400-3570

levels. The arrivals are still on a higher side in major spot markets of Madhya

Pradesh Punjab/Haryana, Rajasthan & Gujarat. The demand for mustard oil

is being reported to be weak in Indore mandis, while plant deliveries of

mustard seeds for Jaipur line is quoted at Rs 3,490-95 (Rs 3,530-35).

OIL AND OILSEEDS

OTHER COMMODITIES

Wheat futures (July) is expected to consolidate in the range of 1585-1640 levels. The sentiments at the spot market are firm owing to strong demand from millers and traders. Moreover, the arrivals of the new cropsare gradually winding down as farmers are holding back their produce on anticipation of higher realization in days to come. The short covering in chana futures (July) will possibly remained capped as rise in selling pressure continue to drag prices of pulses and pulse seeds in Indore mandis. Further, decline in buying support along with arrivals of new summer crop of tur, urad & moong may keep a lid on the upside. Cotton futures (June) on MCX is expected to remain stable taking support above 18000 levels. Fiber crop plantation in Punjab has reached 5.34 lakh hectares which was 3.91 lakh hectares last year in the same period. In Rajasthan, plantation has reached 1 lakh hectares as compared to 2 lakh hectares last year in same time period. Overall, according to projections given by the Textile Commissioner of India, the area under cotton cultivation is likely to be around 11.77 million hectares in 2012-13. In 2011-12, the area under cotton cultivation was reported at 12.17 million hectares. Sugar futures (July) is expected to remain below 3100 levels. The domestic market is over flooded with supplies from producers & inventory in Vashi market and that has kept the stockists away from taking bulk buying. Moreover, there are reports that sugar refiners are importing raw sugar due to a sharp drop in the overseas prices.

Base metals complex may continue last week gains as this week investors will focus on the China PMI data along with US factory orders. Red metal copper can trade in the range of 405-422. Copper stocks in CME Group Inc's lone warehouse in New Orleans have soared in two months, raising the risk that financing deals that have annoyed end users may spill into the smaller U.S. exchange. Some of China's largest copper smelters have recently been forced to shut some units due to shortages of scrap, cutting copper output in the region. Lending copper some support, premiums for bonded copper in Shanghai were heard as high as $150 a tonne. Investors are also keeping an eye on the huge Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia. Workers at Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc's mine stated that they will not return to open pit mining until all investigations are completed into this month's deadly tunnel collapse. Recently Freeport stated that it had resumed some operations at the world's second-largest copper mine. The suspension of work following the accident that killed 28 people had lifted copper prices to six week highs last week. Nickel prices can trade in the range of 810-870 in MCX. Aluminum prices may move in the range of 104-108 levels while Zinc prices can hover in the range of 104-108 in MCX. While battery metal lead can trade higher as its prices can test 128 in MCX. Cash date tightness has returned to the London Metal Exchange (LME) lead market. International Lead and Zinc Study Group assess the global refined lead market as being in small 17,000-tonne deficit over the first quarter of 2013.

BASE METALS

Bullion counter may remain on bullish path continuing the last week gains. Gold may trade in the range of $1400-1480 in COMEX and 26500-28000 in MCX. White metal, silver, can also trade in a wide range of 43000-46500 in near term. On the domestic bourses, weak local currency has capped the downside to larger extent, which tested 56.5 levels. This week US nonfarm payroll data and ECB interest rate decision will be closely watched for further direction in the bullion counter. The rise in gold prices helped gold backed Exchange Traded Fund holdings to edge higher for the first time in three weeks, indicating renewed interest in the precious metal. Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust rose on last Wednesday for the first time since May 9, to 1,013.15 tonnes. Rising gold prices, up more than 4 percent in two weeks, have deterred buyers in India and China, the top two consumers of bullion. There was a mad rush for gold in April when prices sank to a two-year low of $1,321.35. Most Asian countries saw premiums for gold bars ease as spot prices rose but some like Singapore continued to see high premiums due to a supply shortage. Premiums for physical gold in India eased to $4 an ounce over spot London prices from $20 just two weeks back. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke stated recently that the central bank may slow its $85 billion of monthly debt purchases if the economy shows sustained signs of improvement.

BULLIONS

Crude oil prices may remain in range on volatile path as Middle East tension in Syria and inventory position along with global demand scenario will give further direction to the prices. Crude oil may trade in the range of 5200-5450 in MCX and $89-96 in NYMEX. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has little room to pump more oil due to the U.S. oil boom that has sparked competition for market share in Asia and set off a rivalry between its top two producers Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Recently US crude production has been growing due to innovative use of hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," which has put the United States in line to become the world's largest oil producer by 2017, overtaking Saudi Arabia. Japan, the world's third-biggest oil consumer, imported just 36,005 kilolitres (7,549 bpd) from Iran in April down 96 percent from the same month a year ago and the lowest level since importing no Iranian crude in July 2012. Japan did not import crude in July last year as refiners halted imports while waiting for Tokyo to come up with a sovereign scheme following an EU ban on insurance coverage for tankers carrying Iranian oil. Demand for OPEC crude is set to rise in the second half to average 30.47 million bpd, up from 29.14 million bpd in the current quarter, according to OPEC forecasts. Natural gas may trade on volatile path in range of 220-240 in MCX. Recently Natural gas futures fell on forecasts for cooler weather that would reduce demand for electricity to power air conditioners.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Closing as on 30.05.13

11

NOTES : 1) Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance. 3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly

basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.4) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

EXCHANGE CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND

PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS

NCDEX SOYABEAN (JUNE) 3827.00 07.03.13 UP 3421.50 3700.00 - 3600.00 - 3500.00

NCDEX JEERA (JUNE) 13047.00 11.04.13 UP 13795.00 12000.00 - 11500.00 - 11000.00

NCDEX RED CHILLI (JUNE) 5676.00 17.04.13 DOWN 6362.00 - 6500.00 7000.00 7500.00

NCDEX RM SEEDS (JUNE) 3453.00 11.04.13 UP 3586.00 3200.00 - 3100.00 - 3000.00

MCX MENTHA OIL (JUNE) 924.00 21.03.13 DOWN 1141.30 - 1000.00 1050.00 1100.00

MCX CARDAMOM (JUNE) 729.00 28.02.13 DOWN 965.00 - 850.00 890.00 930.00

MCX SILVER (JULY) 44421.00 20.12.12 DOWN 57351.00 - 46000.00 49000.00 49500.00

MCX GOLD (AUGUST ) 27403.00 30.05.13 SIDEWAYS

MCX COPPER (JUNE) 414.55 30.05.13 UP 414.55 385.00 - 375.00 - 365.00

MCX LEAD (JUNE) 122.90 30.05.13 UP 122.90 110.00 - 105.00 - 100.00

MCX ZINC (JUNE) 107.55 30.05.13 UP 107.55 102.00 - 98.00 - 95.00

MCX NICKEL(JUNE) 840.10 21.02.13 DOWN 920.30 - 870.00 900.00 920.00

MCX ALUMINUM(JUNE) 106.60 30.05.13 UP 106.60 100.00 - 98.00 - 95.00

MCX CRUDE OIL (JUNE) 5298.00 25.04.13 SIDEWAYS

MCX NATURAL GAS (JUNE) 230.90 23.05.13 SIDEWAYS

TREND RATE TREND S1 R1 S2 R2 CLOSING

*

TREND SHEET

COMMODITY

LEAD MCX (JUNE) contract closed at ̀ 122.90 on 30th May '13. The contract made its high of 123.40 on

31st May '13 and a low of 105.20 on 2nd May '13. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the

commodity is currently at 115. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 76. One can sell the

range 125-127 with the stop loss of 130 for a target of Rs 118.

`

`

`

`

NATURAL GAS MCX (JUNE) contract closed at 228.40 on 30th May '13. The contract made its high of

242.80 on 27th May '13 and a low of 214.30 on 8th May '13.The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of

the Commodity is currently at 231.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.One can sell in the

range 230-232 with the stop loss of 237 for target of 218.

`

` `

`

` `

CRUDE OIL MCX (JUNE) contract closed at 5298.00 on 30th May '13.The contract made its high of

5384.00 on 21st May '13 and a low of 4872.00 on 1st May '13.The 18-day Exponential Moving Average

of the Commodity is currently at 5260.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53. One can sell in the

range 5320-5340 with the stop loss of 5375 for a target of 5230.

`

` `

`

` `

®

LEAD MCX (JUNE)

NATURAL GAS MCX (JUNE)

CRUDE OIL MCX (JUNE)

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

The bullion counter continued its positive momentum on the back of the news that Fed will continue its QE3. Moreover lower level buying supported its prices higher. In the international bourses, COMEX, prices of gold had crossed the key resistance of $1400 and Rs 26800 in MCX. However the recent weak U.S. economic data eased fears that the Federal Reserve would soon scale back its bullion-friendly bond buying programme. A rise in gold backed Exchange Traded Fund holdings for the first time in three weeks also underpinned the precious metal, typically seen as a hedge against inflation. But physical demand softened with gold registered second straight week of gains. Crude oil remained on extremely volatile note on the mixed fundamentals. OPEC crude output has fallen in May due to lower exports from Iraq and disruptions in some African producers improving compliance with an OPEC output ceiling expected to be maintained at a meeting this week. Natural gas prices dropped lower on profit booking as it traded in a narrow range. Bullish momentum ruled in base metals pack with lead prices gained the most as good economic numbers from US supported the prices higher. World No. 1 copper producer Chile produced 441,668 tonnes of the red metal, copper, in April a 1.2 percent drop from a year before, on strikes, problems with production lines and lower ore grades in some deposits. Codelco, the world's No. 1 copper producer, said on Thursday its copper output rose around 3 percent in the first quarter to about 385,000 tonnes due to improvements at the Chuquicamata, Radomiro Tomic and El Teniente deposits.

Among the agri counters, maize futures on the national bourse rallied to a multi-week high pushed by the strong sentiments of lower crop arrivals in the market coupled with demand from feed millers. Cotton prices posted decent gains on the back of lower arrivals & news of drop in acreage this year as farmers are shifting to more lucrative crop. On the contrary, cotton futures on ICE hit its lowest price since late January and extended its longest slide in three years after the figures suggested that demand will ease in China, the world's biggest user, amid estimates for slower economic expansion. The guar complex plunged the most owing to higher arrivals from Gujarat & farmers getting inclined for sowing in Bikaner and Ganga nagar districts. Monsoon also will play a crucial role in the upcoming guar sowing. It is likely to hit Kerala by June 3, with conditions becoming favourable for its advance into parts of south Arabian sea, Maldives, the Comorin areas and some more parts of Bay of Bengal. Chana futures fell further due to peak arrivals from Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, coupled with apprehensions of record high production this season. In oilseeds, crude palm oil futures gained on the domestic & international market as investors anticipated tight supplies and a demand pick-up ahead of Ramadan. Further the depreciation in rupee against US dollar imports made imports costlier & restricted the supplies.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

COMMODITY UNIT 22.05.13 30.05.13 DIFFERENCEQTY.

BARLEY MT 24541.00 26074.00 1533.00

CASTOR SEED MT 132513.00 136055.00 3542.00

CHANA MT 108811.00 120092.00 11281.00

CHILLI MT 15698.00 15871.00 173.00

COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 124455.00 114920.00 -9535.00

MAIZE MT 1341.00 1796.00 455.00

RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 72064.00 76086.00 4022.00

SOYA BEAN SEEDS MT 23453.00 23314.00 -139.00

SUGAR S KOL MT 0.00 0.00 0.00

SUGAR M MT 6833.00 4864.00 -1969.00

WHEAT MT 5859.00 6671.00 812.00

COMMODITY UNIT 23.05.13 30.05.13 DIFFERENCE

QTY. QTY.

CARDAMOM MT 61.90 53.60 -8.30

COTTON BALES 161400.00 161400.00 0.00

GOLD KGS 319.00 319.00 0.00

GOLD MINI KGS 37.30 36.60 -0.70

GOLD GUINEA KGS 271.89 271.78 -0.11

MENTHA OIL KGS 482330.50 341974.60 -140355.90

MILD STEEL MT 2191.52 1914.76 -276.76

SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 18027.23 14696.19 -3331.03

• Chilean manufacturing production rose by 3.4 percent in April from a year ago on strength in the food and beverages sector.

• The World Gold Council expects Indian gold imports to reach 350-400 tonnes in the second quarter, 200 percent higher than a year earlier.

• Reserve Bank of India recently stated that banks would not be allowed to give loans against units of gold exchange-traded funds and gold mutual funds.

• World No. 1 copper producer Chile produced 441,668 tonnes of the red metal in April a 1.2 percent drop from a year before.

• Japan slashed its April crude oil imports from Iran to the lowest level in nine months, as buyers cut purchases from the Middle Eastern country to less than 10,000 barrels per day (bpd).

• Iraq has shipped about 200,000 bpd less from its southern and northern ports, according to shipping data.

• Ace derivatives and commodity exchange Ltd has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with compound feed manufacturers association (CLFMA) on sharing of information.

• Effective from 26 May 2013, the silver and copper futures, spreads and options listed on CME Group will have their currency changed from USc to USD.

• Commodity futures exchanges generated a turnover of `6,17,813.80 crore between May 1 and May 15 this year compared to 6,96,610.72 crore in the corresponding period last year.

• NSEL realized record e-Gold trading worth 727.75 crore on Akshaya Tritiya.

`

`

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

12

®

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

4.864.20

3.682.89

2.32

- 9.53

- 8.24

- 3.36- 2.95 - 2.92

-12.00

-10.00

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

COTTON SD O.C (AKL)

MAIZE RABI KAPAS GOLD NEW SILVER NEW GUAR SEED GUAR GUM CHANA POTATO SOYAMEAL

6.005.60

4.10 3.93

2.98

- 9.42

- 8.21

- 3.63

-1.93-1.18

- 12.00

- 10.00

- 8.00

- 6.00

- 4.00

- 2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

LEAD MINI KAPASKHALI ALUMINIUM ZINC KAPAS GUAR SEED GUAR GUM NATURAL GAS MENTHA OIL POTATO

Indian gold imports… Mysterious attraction continue

13

SPOT PRICES (% change)

COMMODITY

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE

23.05.13 30.05.13

ALUMINIUM 5218175 5203150 -15025

COPPER 627275 613725 -13550

NICKEL 179598 179832 234

LEAD 236275 225150 -11125

ZINC 1107200 1095350 -11850

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 24.05.13 30.05.13 CHANGE(%)

Soya CBOT JULY Cent per Bushel 1476.25 1495.75 1.32

Maize CBOT JULY Cent per Bushel 657.25 654.25 -0.46

CPO BMD JUNE MYR per MT 2340.00 2326.00 -0.60

Sugar LIFFE AUG 10 cents per MT 476.40 478.00 0.34

*

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 24.05.13 30.05.13 CHANGE%

ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1840.00 1907.00 3.64

COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 7299.00 7317.00 0.25

LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2069.00 2172.00 4.98

NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 14805.00 14800.00 -0.03

ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 1856.00 1915.00 3.18

GOLD COMEX AUG 1387.50 1412.00 1.77

SILVER COMEX JULY 22.50 22.69 0.86

LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX JULY 94.15 93.61 -0.57

NATURAL GAS NYMEX JULY 4.28 4.02 -6.09

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Indian has extraordinary attraction for gold across generations. Gold meets the

ordinary Indians' need for a long-term store of value, better than bank deposits or

mutual funds. Gold is also an effective demonstrator of status of the Indian

household. So India is largest consumer and importer of gold.

Why gold imports increased?

Recently despite of government's efforts to curb gold import in view of the increasing

current account deficit up to 6.7% during October-December quarter, the gold import

in India is still higher as The recent plunge in gold prices has further stimulated the

appetite of gold bugs in India, with imports surged 138 percent in April, widening the

already ballooning current account and trade deficits.

Indian gold futures, which traded above Rs 32000 per 10 grams in mid of December

2012, have currently tumbled down below Rs 27000 per 10 grams in tandem with the

international market. In international market, gold prices plunged to below $1400 in

April 2013 from $1730 in December 2012 on signs of economic improvement in US and

fear that central banks around the world could start to curtail their bullion-friendly

policy measures.

In India, good rabi crop, lower gold prices and higher buying in the ongoing wedding

and festive season led to higher jewellery demand and the impact of rise in gold

import duty in late January was mostly eliminated by these positive factors, the WGC

said.

Gold imports by India

Gold imports surged 138

percent year on year to

$7.5 billion in April,

sending the trade deficit

to $17.8 billion, up more

than 72 percent from

March. The yellow metal

accounts for around 11

percent of the country's

overall imports.

According to recent report of WGC, Indian gold imports may reach 350-400 tonnes in

the second quarter, 200 percent higher than a year earlier and almost half of last

year's total imports. India's bar and coin investment rose 52 percent to 97 tonnes from

63.8 tonnes over the period, while jewellery demand reached 160 tonnes from 138.3

tonnes. Gold imports were 215 tonnes in the first quarter of 2013 as compared to 228

tonnes in the same period last year.

In terms of value, WGC said India's gold demand rose by 32 per cent to Rs 72,899.4

crore in the January- March period of this year as against Rs 55,148.7 crore in the

year-ago period.

Import curbs by RBI

Rising gold imports with weakening of the rupee against the dollar is widening current

account deficit that is weighing on Indian economy. To restrict the gold import the RBI

has increased import duty from 4% to 6% in January this year. Recently RBI has

restricted gold imports under the consignment route. Banks can no longer import gold

on a consignment basis - an arrangement where lenders can hold stocks of gold

without actually paying for it until they find a buyer for it. India imported 1,015

tonnes of gold in 2012-13, said RBI. Industry sources said 65-70 per cent of this is

imported on consignment basis. RBI believes it creates "artificial demand", and

encouraging "unnecessary" import. The Reserve Bank also imposed restrictions on

banks and NBFCs for providing loans against gold coins as well as units of gold ETFs

and mutual funds.

®

-5.27

-2.99

-2.06

-2.02

-1.79

-1.39

-1.26

-1.18

-1.16

-0.54

-0.16

0.00

0.00

0.03

0.12

0.21

0.58

0.59

1.05

1.39

1.82

-6.00 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

MENTHA OIL (CHANDAUSI)

CHANA (DELHI)

SOYABEAN (INDORE)

TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)

CORIANDER (KOTA)

MUSTARD (JAIPUR)

JEERA (UNJHA)

RUBBER (KOCHI)

MASOOR (INDORE)

CARDAMOM (VANDANMEDU)

BARLEY (JAIPUR)

CHILLI (GUNTUR)

MILD STEEL INGOTS (GHAZIABAD)

REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)

PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)

WHEAT (DELHI)

RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)

GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)

SILVER (DELHI)

CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)

GOLD KG (MUMBAI)

* Pervious closing as on 23.05.13

Indian gold imports 2013

Source: Bloomberg

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USD/INR 55.70 56.68 55.48 56.67

EUR/INR 71.84 73.48 71.74 73.45

GBP/INR 83.83 85.73 83.74 85.67

JPY/INR 54.68 56.21 54.06 55.86

(Source: Thomson Reuters, Open: Friday (Prior) 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday 5.00 PM IST)

News Flows of last week

28th May: U.S Consumer confidence strongest in over five years in May

28th May: U.S Home prices accelerated by most in seven years

30th May: UK House prices rose at fastest pace since Nov 2011 - Nationwide

30th May: Fed balance sheet shrank in latest week

30th May: U.S Pending home sales hit three-year high

30th May: U.S Jobless claims unexpectedly rose, but still within 2013 range

30th May: U.S First quarter GDP revised slightly lower; austerity bites

EUR/INR (JUNE) contract closed at 73.45 on 30th May. The contract made its high of 73.48 on 30th May'13 and a low of 71.74 on 24th May'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day

Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 72.17.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 77.49. One can buy on dips around 73.45 for a target of 74.50 with the stop loss of 72.90

`` `

`

JPY/INR (JUNE) contract closed at 55.86 on 30th May'13. The contract made its high

of 56.21 on 30th May'13 and a low of 54.06 on 24th May'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-

day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 55.02.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 67.22.

One can buy around 56.25 for a target of 57.25 with the stop loss of 55.70

`

` `

`

`

Market Stance

The rupee continues to reel under pressure for the fourth consecutive day,

hitting a fresh 11-month low on Friday, after RBI governor's comments that have

dented rate cut hopes. The comment on Thursday pointed to the fact that

inflation still remained high and expressed worry over the country's high current

account deficit. The sentiment turned bearish on concerns that the RBI may not

cut rates at its next policy review meet in June. The rupee was seen continuously

weakening against the US dollar in this week due to increased dollar demand in

the local market. However on the international platform the US dollar hovered

near a three-week low against the euro on Friday after unexpectedly weak U.S.

economic data dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce its

monetary stimulus soon.

Economic gauge for the next week

Date Currency Event PREVIOUS

04th June EUR Producer Price Index (YoY) 0.70%

05th June EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) -0.60%

05th June EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) -0.90%

05th June EUR Retail Sales (YoY) -2.40%

06th June GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility £375B

06th June GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50%

06th June EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.50%

06th June EUR ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference

07th June USD Nonfarm Payrolls 165K

07th June USD Unemployment Rate 7.50%

14

®

EUR/INR

USD/INR (JUNE) contract closed at ̀ 56.67 on 30th May'13. The contract made its high of 56.68 on 30th May'13 and a low of 55.48 on 24th May'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 55.75

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 83.79. One can buy on dips around 56.45 for a target of 57.40 with the stop loss of 55.90

` ``

GBP/INR (JUNE) contract closed at 85.67 on 30th May'13. The contract made its

high of 85.73 on 30th May'13 and a low of 83.74 on 24th May'13 (Weekly Basis). The

14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 84.60.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 74.96. One

can buy on dips around 85.75 for a target of 86.75 with the stop loss of Rs 85.20

`

` `

`

`

USD/INRTechnical Recommendation

GBP/INR JPY/INR

IPOIPO

INDIAN IPO NEWS

Intas Pharma IPO likely, plans to raise ̀ 1000-1200 cr

Intas Pharma has decided to revive its Initial Public Offer (IPO) plan. The company had earlier planned to go public in 2012 but poor market conditions

had forced it to shelve its plans. It is likely that Intas will file its DRHP with SEBI in the next two weeks. It seeks to raise around ̀ 1000-1200 crore through

this IPO and plans to utilise proceeds from this IPO for capex and debt reduction, reports CNBC-TV18's Aastha Maheshwari. Intas Pharma is an

Ahmedabad based drug manufacturing company. The company is also into formulation, development and marketing. It gets around 40 percent of its

sales from overseas and its gross revenues cross around ̀ 3000 crore. Meanwhile bankers value this company to be more than ̀ 5000 crore.

Sanco Industries files IPO papers with SEBI

Electrical cables wires and plastic pipe manufacturer Sanco Industries filed a draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with SEBI for a public issue of `14

crore. The company intends to use issue proceeds for capital expenditure on existing manufacturing capacity of PVC pipes and wire & cable; working

capital requirement and general corporate purpose. Equity shares are proposed to be listed on the SME Platform of the NSE. Keynote Corporate

Services Limited is the book running lead manager and BEETAL Financial & Computer Services (P) Limited is the registrar to the issue.

Vodafone IPO unlikely this year: Marten Pieters

A planned initial public offering of Vodafone Group Plc's Indian unit is unlikely this year, the unit's Chief Executive Marten Pieters has informed. Pieters

said that the company will wait for clarity on rules around airwaves and cellular permits before going ahead with the IPO.

IPO TRACKER

V-Mart Retail Trading 243.45 123.00 20-Feb-13 210.00 216.00 135.55 -35.45

Bharti Infra. Telecom 31835.39 4533.60 28-Dec-12 220.00 200.00 168.55 -23.39

PC Jeweller Jewellary 2025.62 609.30 27-Dec-12 135.00 135.50 113.10 -16.22

CARE Rating Agency 1992.93 540.00 26-Dec-12 750.00 949.00 698.05 -6.93

Tara Jewels Jewellary 317.08 179.50 6-Dec-12 230.00 242.00 129.00 -43.91

VKS Projects EPC 148.05 55.00 18-Jul-12 55.00 55.80 2.35 -95.73

Speciality Restaruants Restaurants 814.29 181.96 30-May-12 150.00 153.00 173.40 15.60

T B Z Jewellary 1676.08 210.00 9-May-12 120.00 115.00 251.40 109.50

MT Educare Miscellaneous 388.25 99.00 12-Apr-12 80.00 86.05 97.60 22.00

NBCC Construction 1621.20 124.97 12-Apr-12 106.00 100.00 135.10 27.45

Olympic card. Media 92.56 24.75 28-Mar-12 30.00 29.95 56.75 89.17

Multi Comm. Exc. Exchange 4540.28 663.31 9-Mar-12 1032.00 1387.00 890.25 -13.74

Indo Thai Sec. Finance 13.04 29.60 2-Nov-11 74.00 75.00 13.04 -82.38

Vaswani Inds. Steel 8.60 49.00 24-Oct-11 49.00 33.45 3.15 -93.57

M and B Switch. Capital Goods 490.00 93.00 20-Oct-11 186.00 180.00 24.50 -86.83

Flexituff Intl. Packaging 521.07 104.63 19-Oct-11 155.00 155.00 226.75 46.29

Prakash Constro. Construction 16.97 60.00 4-Oct-11 138.00 145.00 1.35 -99.02

PG Electro. Consumer Durables 99.94 120.65 26-Sep-11 210.00 200.00 60.90 -71.00

SRS Jewellary 515.37 203.00 16-Sep-11 58.00 55.00 37.00 -36.21

TD Power Sys. Capital Goods 765.85 227.00 8-Sep-11 256.00 251.60 230.40 -10.00

Tree House Edu. Miscellaneous 973.26 112.06 26-Aug-11 135.00 132.80 270.65 100.48

L&T Fin.Holdings Finance 13321.28 1245.00 12-Aug-11 52.00 51.00 77.70 49.42

Inventure Grow. Finance 45.70 81.90 4-Aug-11 117.00 119.00 5.44 -95.35

Readymade Steel Steel 86.38 34.75 13-Jul-11 108.00 115.00 73.70 -31.76

Birla Pacific Healthcare 7.40 65.18 7-Jul-11 10.00 10.10 0.66 -93.40

Rushil Decor Miscellaneous 51.26 40.64 7-Jul-11 72.00 81.25 35.60 -50.56

15

®

Company SectorM.Cap(In Cr.)

Issue Size(in Cr.)

List Date Issue Price List PriceLast

Price*%Gain/Loss

(from Issue price)

®

MUTUAL FUND

NEWS

HDFC MF introduces FMP 372D May 2013 (1)

HDFC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of HDFC FMP 372D May 2013 (1), a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on May31, 2013 and closes on June 3, 2013. The investment objective of the Plans under the Scheme is to generate income through

investments in Debt / Money Market Instruments and Government Securities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective Plan(s).

Union KBC MF offers document to launch “Union KBC Focussed Equity Fund.

Union KBC Mutual Fund has filed document with SEBI to launch a new open ended equity scheme named “Union KBC Focussed Equity Fund”. The New

Fund Offer (NFO) price for the scheme is ̀ 10 per unit. According to the offer document filed with SEBI, the entry load is nil while exit load of 1 per cent

will be charged if the scheme is redeemed within one year from the date of allotment. The minimum application amount is ̀ 25000 and in multiples of Rs

1 thereafter. The two options available under the Plan of the Scheme are Growth and Dividend option. The performance of the scheme will be

benchmarked against S&P BSE Sensex. Ashish Ranawade will be the Fund Manager of the scheme. The asset allocation of scheme will be in such a way

that the objective of the scheme to generate capital appreciation will be met through investing in a portfolio of select equity and equity linked

securities. Hence, the scheme will allocate 75 to 100 per cent of the asset in equity and equity related instruments and 0 to 25 per cent in short term

debt and money market instruments.

Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series FL and FM declares dividend

Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has declared dividend under dividend option of Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series FL and Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan -

Series FM. The rate of dividend will be `0.1000 per unit on the face value of `10 per unit. The record date for dividend is June 3, 2013. Further, unit

holders under Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series FL and Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series FM are requested to note that as per provisions of

Scheme Information Document of the schemes, the maturity date of the schemes shall be on June 3, 2013. Accordingly, trading of units of the scheme

will automatically get suspended on the stock exchange(s), where units of the said schemes are listed, with effect from May 30, 2013.

India to kick off sales of inflation-linked bonds in June

India is set to start the long-awaited sale of inflation-linked government bonds next month, while Larsen & Toubro became the first domestic company

to issue such debt, offering higher effective yields in an economy plagued by high inflation.

Ritesh Jain joins Tata Mutual Fund as CIO

Tata Mutual Fund appointed Ritesh Jain as the AMC's Chief Investment Officer with effect from May 27, 2013. On educational front, Ritesh has

completed his Masters in Business Economics from Indore University and has also done a Diploma in Capital Markets from ICFAI. Prior to joining Tata

Mutual fund, he was the head of Fixed Income at Kotak AMC, IDBI Bank and Corporation Bank.

17®

NFOs WATCH

Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount

31-May-2013 03-Jun-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-HDFC Fixed Maturity Plan - 372D - May 2013 Series 26 (1) Direct Plan (G)

Anil BamboliTo generate regular income through

investments in debt / money market

instruments and government securities

maturing on or before the maturity date

of the plan.

03-Jun-2013 05-Jun-2013 Growth `5000/-ICICI Prudential FMP - Series 68 - 745 Days Plan C - Direct Plan (G)

Manish Banthia

To seek to generate income by investing

in a portfol io of f ixed income

securities/debt instruments maturing on

or before the maturity of the Scheme

05-Jun-2013 12-Jun-2013 Growth `5000/-Reliance Fixed Horizon Fund - XXIII - Series 12 (1110 D) (G)

Amit TripathiTo generate returns by investing in a

portfolio of fixed income securities

maturing on or before the date of

maturity of the scheme. However, the

scheme does not guarantee / indicate

any return

Close-Ended

Close-Ended

18

MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

Birla Sun Life India GenNext Fund - G 33.20 05-Aug-2005 128.25 11.71 7.44 35.95 16.59 16.58 1.72 0.75 0.20 49.65 39.19 4.21 6.95

Canara Robeco FORCE Fund - Reg - G 16.54 14-Sep-2009 114.24 10.49 4.03 32.96 12.07 14.53 2.08 0.94 0.14 57.18 26.53 3.52 12.78

Axis Equity Fund - Growth 13.11 05-Jan-2010 531.80 9.71 9.98 32.69 8.27 8.29 1.73 0.84 0.15 76.33 6.08 3.79 13.80

Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - G 17.00 13-Jan-2006 322.84 5.33 3.62 31.45 9.43 7.46 1.83 0.66 0.15 23.83 57.00 10.13 9.04

Morgan Stanley Growth Fund - Growth 68.72 18-Feb-1994 1331.44 7.32 6.37 30.96 5.95 12.24 1.74 0.81 0.12 74.46 20.24 0.84 4.45

SBI Magnum Bluechip Fund - Growth 17.09 14-Feb-2006 856.35 5.68 4.57 29.94 7.64 7.62 1.68 0.81 0.14 71.34 13.44 N.A 15.21

Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund - Plan A - G 101.23 30-Aug-2002 3043.64 6.39 3.91 29.20 8.44 24.01 1.89 0.92 0.10 79.09 12.13 N.A 8.78

EQUITY (Diversified)

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 30/05/2013Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

ULTRA SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns

Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

Canara Robeco Balance - Growth 70.46 01-Feb-1993 204.41 3.69 -0.2 15.17 7.79 10.28 1.29 -0.03 46.95 18.92 1.47 32.66

DSP BlackRock Balanced Fund - Growth 70.13 27-May-1999 620.38 3.85 -1.28 11.97 5.16 14.91 1.48 -0.13 34.85 27.21 4.38 33.56

FT India Balanced Fund - Growth 56.69 10-Dec-1999 212.45 6.03 4.81 20.67 8.14 13.74 1.29 0.03 53.75 15.97 1.35 28.93

HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 62.72 9/11/2000 1136.29 2.69 0.29 11.87 8.91 15.52 1.34 -0.10 30.48 37.67 2.75 29.10

HDFC Prudence Fund - Growth 234.04 01-Feb-1994 6162.21 4.08 0.82 13.74 7.44 19.32 1.66 -0.09 39.75 30.11 4.58 25.56

ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 56.93 03-Nov-1999 447.5 4.19 4.34 20.95 11.52 13.66 1.24 0.05 47.14 16.11 2.28 34.48

ING Balanced Fund - Growth 28.23 25-Apr-2000 117.27 6.53 4.67 18.91 6.14 8.24 1.41 -0.02 71.88 1.34 -- 26.78

Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

SBI Magnum Income Fund - Growth 30.59 25-Nov-1998 3018.90 -4.39 3.40 37.85 20.05 16.69 10.55 7.96 18.72 0.47 3727.00 8.93

ICICI Prudential Income Opportunities Fund - G 17.05 18-Aug-2008 2345.64 7.63 3.44 38.57 18.25 16.57 9.61 11.80 18.99 0.45 3008.00 8.65

Morgan Stanley Active Bond Fund - Reg - G 12.92 03-Jun-2009 203.36 2.14 0.75 43.20 22.09 16.13 8.62 6.62 22.99 0.35 4063.00 7.95

Birla Sun Life Income Plus - DAP 14.25 06-Mar-2009 2901.32 1.68 4.16 40.85 22.23 16.05 9.92 8.71 20.29 0.41 N.A 8.24

Birla Sun Life Income Plus - Growth 56.47 21-Oct-1995 2901.32 1.69 4.18 40.83 22.16 16.01 9.91 10.32 20.28 0.41 N.A 8.24

ICICI Prudential Income Fund -Growth 39.37 09-Jul-1998 2927.53 2.24 8.10 37.93 20.09 15.96 9.12 9.63 19.08 0.42 3734.00 8.29

SBI Dynamic Bond Fund - Growth 15.49 09-Feb-2004 5332.48 -4.04 2.80 38.57 20.17 15.81 11.92 4.93 19.38 0.39 3946.00 8.87

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund - Reg - G 13.60 12-Jun-2009 428.03 -6.55 0.84 22.39 17.33 13.09 9.59 8.07 13.71 0.41 2555.00 8.31

ICICI Prudential Blended - Plan B - Option I - G 18.13 31-May-2005 948.67 0.20 4.06 18.14 13.51 11.45 9.26 7.72 8.55 0.47 1011.00 8.54

UTI Short Term Income Fund - Ret - G 20.92 23-Jun-2003 2280.04 -4.16 -0.65 14.44 12.59 12.06 9.62 7.71 6.89 0.64 973.00 N.A

Morgan Stanley Short Term Bond Fund - Reg - G 13.63 26-May-2009 332.49 4.36 6.44 17.81 12.01 11.46 9.06 8.12 6.69 0.55 1143.00 9.21

Templeton India STIP - Growth 2420.37 31-Jan-2002 5744.78 1.61 1.58 15.00 12.01 11.61 8.97 8.11 5.95 0.66 982.00 10.09

ICICI Prudential - S T P - Growth 24.60 25-Oct-2001 4665.53 1.84 3.65 15.35 11.89 11.41 8.43 8.07 6.21 0.58 1048.00 8.68

Tata Short Term Bond Fund - Plan A - G 22.18 08-Aug-2002 261.82 1.29 4.12 14.03 11.75 10.97 8.58 7.64 5.32 0.63 423.00 8.36

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Templeton India Low Duration Fund - G 12.93 26-Jul-2010 2803.69 6.95 7.32 9.06 9.60 9.90 N.A 9.44 2.01 1.23 263.00 9.04

DWS Money Plus Fund - Growth 16.45 14-Mar-2006 433.32 2.73 4.25 11.53 9.57 9.53 7.08 7.14 4.04 0.54 562.00 8.50

Indiabulls Ultra Short Term Fund - G 1143.25 06-Jan-2012 615.57 7.27 8.10 8.85 9.52 9.80 N.A 10.06 1.37 1.78 133.00 8.76

DWS Treasury Fund - Investment - Reg - G 13.22 09-Oct-2009 240.25 4.18 5.30 8.29 9.46 9.74 8.29 7.97 3.03 0.73 314.00 8.42

Kotak Floater - LT - Growth 18.99 13-Aug-2004 4289.57 5.75 6.73 9.65 9.39 9.58 8.81 7.56 1.75 1.29 193.00 8.80

Kotak Flexi Debt Fund - Growth 18.28 07-Dec-2004 1520.79 5.43 6.45 9.97 9.25 9.26 8.17 7.37 1.97 0.97 172.00 8.90

Reliance Medium Term Fund - Growth 24.78 14-Sep-2000 4350.12 4.06 5.22 9.03 9.23 9.78 8.78 7.40 2.92 0.80 320.00 8.57

Annualised

®

Mr. Subhash C Aggarwal, CMD, SMC Group addressing the audience during 3rd Annual Summit on Financial Sector Legislative Reforms organized by Assocham at New Delhi

Mr. Anurag Bansal, Director, SMC Global Securities Ltd during the price distribution ceremony

of India's Top 500 Companies & corporate awards organized by D&B