AAPA Safety Initiatives Update :

Working Together with COSCAP

6th COSCAP-NA Steering Committee

Meeting

29-31 August 2006 by

Martin ERAN-TASKER

Technical Director

• About AAPA

• Safety drivers and industry response

• Safety Outreach

• FOSWG and Safety Incident Update

• Discussion

Presentation outline

AAPA Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

• Regional trade association representing 17 major international

airlines based in Asia Pacific

• Committed to promoting sustainable growth of the aviation industry

serving both passenger and freight needs

• Work with member airlines, governments, regulators and industry

partners on issues of common concern

• Permanent secretariat headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

• Representation in Washington and Brussels

AAPA Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

AAPA Fleet Development

• ~ 1,300 aircraft

• 72% of AAPA fleet is widebody

– Operating 37% of the world’s B777 fleet

– Operating 36% of the world’s B747 fleet

– Operating 26% of the world’s A330/A340

fleet

• 47 new aircraft deliveries in 2006

• 239 more aircraft for delivery from 2007

– Includes 135 new generation A380 and

B787

AAPA Work Structure

ENVIRONMENTAL WORKING GROUP

(EWG)

PUBLIC RELATIONS MGR

WORKING GROUP

CARGO SECURITY WORKING GROUP

(CSWG)

SECURITY COMMITTEE

(SC)

ENGINEERING & MAINTENANCE

WORKING GROUP (EMWG)

FLIGHT OPS & SAFETY

WORKING GROUP (FOSWG)

MATERIALS MANAGEMENT

WORKING GROUP (MMWG)

TECHNICAL COMMITTEE

(TC)

MANAGEMENT INFORMATION

WORKING GROUP

FRAUD PREVENTION

WORKING GROUP

DISTRIBUTION

WORKING GROUP

CARGO

WORKING GROUP

FACILITATION

WORKING GROUP

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

PLANNING WORKING GROUP

NORTH AMERICA

WORKING GROUP

AIRLINE SERVICES COMMITTEE

GATS TASK FORCE

AEROPOLITICAL COMMITTEE

EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

ASSEMBLY OF PRESIDENTS

• About AAPA

• Safety drivers and industry response

• Safety Outreach

• FOSWG and Safety Incident Update

• Discussion

Presentation outline

The Safety Drive

• In 2005 scheduled operations*,

– 18 (9) fatal accidents recorded, 714 (203) fatalities

– 0.02 (0.01) accidents per 100 million passenger-kilometre

• Global accident rate is 0.76 per million sectors (IATA CEO Speech, 20 Feb

2006)

• Recent crashes

– 10 July 2006; Pakistan International Airlines F27; Multan, Pakistan

– 9 July 2006; Sibir Airlines A310; Irkutsk, Russia

– 3 May 2006; Armavia Airlines A320; near Sochi, Russia

• New airline business model

• Fuel cost pressures – cost doubled in two years to US$100b, 23% of

total costs

*ICAO Press Release 15 March 2006 : Scheduled operations, Does not

include acts of unlawful interference; less than 2250kgs

1995-2004 Fatal Accidents –

By Region of Occurrence

Source : Lamy (2005) ICAO

Safety Is Our Concern

Asia Pacific Is Our Concern

Aviation Safety – Performance Trends

• Asia Pacific = AAPA + PRC +Others

• Source: IATA Safety Report 2005, ATA 2005 Economic Report, AEA 2005 Yearbook, AAPA estimates

Jet Aircraft Hull Loss Rate by Operator Region2001-2005

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Hu

ll L

os

s /

Mill

ion

Se

cto

rs

World North America Europe Asia Pacific AAPA IATA

Data: 3-year moving averages

IATA Target: 0.65

ICAO DGCA Global Safety Conference

• Transparency and sharing of safety information are fundamental.

• Mutual trust between States, increase public confidence in air travel,

and help maintain the integrity of the safest and most efficient

means of mass transportation ever created.

• USOAP results on the ICAO public website by 23 March 2008.

• ICAO and IATA to share safety-related information from their

respective audit programmes from 31 March 2006.

• The safety framework … all stakeholders and continuously evolve to

ensure its sustained effectiveness and efficiency in the changing

regulatory, economic and technical environment of the 21st century

Industry Response

Region Airlines Collaborative

Efforts

States

North America Air Transport

Association of

America

Commercial

Aviation Safety

Team

Europe Association of

European Airlines

JAA Safety and

Strategy Initiative

Asia Pacific Association of

Asia Pacific

Airlines

FSF Regional

Team Leader

COSCAP RAST in

SEA, SA, NA

PASO

Rest of the World Regional

Associations

e.g. PAAST

(South America)

COSCAPs

RASOS

0.00

0.40

0.80

1.20

1.60

2.00

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

5 year running average

Cooperative efforts are bringing accident rate

down

Hull Loss Accident Rate Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs, non-CIS) Through 31 December 2002

FSF

CFIT/ALAR

Industry effort

starts CAST/JSSI

begins PAAST

begins

Ra

te p

er

mil

lio

n d

ep

art

ure

s

COSCAP safety teams

(SARAST, SEARAST

And NARAST)

Source : Kyle Olsen, CAST

Safety “Working Together” model

AAPA

Manufacturers

Regulators –

Better States,

Better Airlines

Aviation

Associations

Operators

Why COSCAP is Important to AAPA ?

• “Better States, Better Airlines”.

• Five of nine ICAO safety strategies listed:

– Global remedial plans - target root causes of

deficiencies

– Resolve deficiencies through regional remedial

plans

– Exchange of information between States to

promote mutual confidence in the level of aviation

safety between States and accelerate the

improvement of safety oversight

– Safety management systems across all safety-

related disciplines in all States

– Safety improvement through technical cooperation

programmes

Source : ICAO Strategic Objectives 2005-2010

Non-AAPA

AAPA

QF (Australia)

NZ (New Zealand)

JL/NH (Japan)

BI (Brunei)

(TG) Thailand

(MH) Malaysia

(SQ) Singapore

(VN) Vietnam

(GA) Indonesia

(PR) Philippines

(CX/KA) Hong

Kong SAR

(KE/OZ) South Korea

COSCAP NA

(KE/OZ) South Korea

PR China

Mongolia

DPR Korea

COSCAP SEA

(TG) Thailand

(MH) Malaysia

(SQ) Singapore

(VN) Vietnam

(GA) Indonesia

(PR) Philippines

(CX/KA) Hong Kong SAR

Macau SAR

A “Win-Win” for COSCAP and AAPA

AAPA RTL

Myanmar (MH/TG)

Lao PDR (TG)

Cambodia (MH/TG)

Bangladesh, Bhutan,

India, Maldives

Nepal, Pakistan,

Sri Lanka

COSCAP SA

COSCAP Cornerstone

• Tangibility of outcomes

• Wide dissemination of safety messages

• Communication of deficiencies, interventions and successes

• Importance of development and sharing best practices

• Creation of National Aviation Safety Teams (NASTs)

• Need for participation of operators, service providers and other stakeholders

• Need for continuity of participants

• About AAPA

• Safety drivers and industry response

• Safety Outreach

• FOSWG and Safety Incident Update

• Discussion

Presentation outline

AAPA Outreach Model

AAPA (17 airlines)

FOSWG

Target

Sub-Regions

Work through

National Airline

Association or

Regional

Cooperatives

Work through

ICAO COSCAPs

States

Operators

ICAO leads global safety

COSCAP assists States

AAPA complements assistance to

operators

AAPA Outreach Road Map

AAPA

•Prioritise

region

•Work with

regional/

national airline

association or

regional

cooperation

group

Region

•Initiate or

Facilitate

FOSWG-type

activities

•Data Collection

•Issue

Identification

•Address Issue

•Identify

potential

solution

AAPA

•Identify safety

intervention

•Provide best

practices

•Consult experts

•Work with

COSCAPs

/States

Regio

n

Implement

Feedback to

States

Feedback to

COSCAP

Operators in Targeted Sub-Region

Own the Safety Project

AAPA Facilitates, as appropriate

COSCAP Vital Link

• About AAPA

• Safety drivers and industry response

• Safety Outreach

• FOSWG and Safety Incident Update

• Discussion

Presentation outline

AAPA Work Structure

ENVIRONMENTAL WORKING GROUP

(EWG)

PUBLIC RELATIONS MGR

WORKING GROUP

CARGO SECURITY WORKING GROUP

(CSWG)

SECURITY COMMITTEE

(SC)

ENGINEERING & MAINTENANCE

WORKING GROUP (EMWG)

FLIGHT OPS & SAFETY

WORKING GROUP (FOSWG)

MATERIALS MANAGEMENT

WORKING GROUP (MMWG)

TECHNICAL COMMITTEE

(TC)

MANAGEMENT INFORMATION

WORKING GROUP

FRAUD PREVENTION

WORKING GROUP

DISTRIBUTION

WORKING GROUP

CARGO

WORKING GROUP

FACILITATION

WORKING GROUP

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

PLANNING WORKING GROUP

NORTH AMERICA

WORKING GROUP

AIRLINE SERVICES COMMITTEE

GATS TASK FORCE

AEROPOLITICAL COMMITTEE

EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

ASSEMBLY OF PRESIDENTS

AAPA Flight Operations and Safety WG

Key Objectives

• To enhance cooperation among members to improve airline safety,

reliability, economy and efficiency

• To provide a communication mechanism to influence industry bodies

in flight operations and safety matters

Background

• Originated as Safety Sub-Committee in 1970

• Renamed as Flight Operations & Safety Working Group in 1993

• Consist of 16 active member airlines of AAPA

• Attended by senior executives of flight operations and safety

• Meeting twice a year

• Reporting to the AAPA Technical Committee (TC)

Flight Vs Ground Incidents (Jul-Dec 2005)

Ground Safety

Events

13%

Flight Safety

Events

87%

Information Exchange

(Jul-Dec 2005)

Ground 19%

Flight 81%

AAPA Safety Update

Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG

Incident Rates (Jul-Dec 2005)

0.13

0.20

0.28

0.64

1.49

3.23

16.04

3.16

2.16

1.81

1.10

0.77

0.33

0.21

0.16

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00

Airmiss

Taxiway/Runway Excursions

Stall Warning

Taxiway/Runway Incursions

Hard Landing

Fire Warning/Detection

Flight Controls Malfunction

EGPWS

Turbulence

Due to Ground Handling

ATC

Due to Ground Operation

TCAS-RA

Systems Mulfunction

Bird Hazard

Rates per 10,000 departure

AAPA Safety Update

Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG

Incidents by Percentage (Jul-Dec 2005)

EGPWS

4.6%

ATC

7.4%

Due to Ground Operation

8.6%

Systems Mulfunction

9.5%TCAS-RA

9.6%

Bird Hazard

44.3%

Flight Controls Malfunction

2.5%

Turbulence

3.4%

Airmiss

0.5%

Stall Warning

0.9% Hard Landing

1.2%

Taxiway/Runway Excursions

0.2%

Taxiway/Runway Incursions

1.1% Fire Warning/Detection

1.8%

Due to Ground Handling

4.3%

AAPA Safety Update

Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG

Incident Rates per 10,000 Departures

(Jul-Dec 2005) Aircraft Type

Flight Safety Events A-300 A-320 A-330 A-340 B-737 B-747 B-767 B-777 MD-11 F50 DHC6 DC10 Avg

Bird Hazard 8.01 32.19 10.44 10.16 9.09 14.43 34.93 23.95 11.55 2.86 1.10 33.73 16.04

Fire Warning/Detection 0.00 0.25 0.41 0.00 0.89 1.67 0.55 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33

Turbulence 0.36 0.50 0.82 4.07 0.72 2.46 0.44 3.15 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.00 1.10

Taxiway/Runway Incursions 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.56 0.53 0.76 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21

Taxiway/Runway Excursions 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 0.00 0.16

Flight Controls Malfunction 0.73 0.00 0.41 2.03 1.34 0.97 2.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64

Systems Mulfunction 1.46 1.01 6.96 12.20 3.51 5.63 3.82 2.02 0.00 2.15 0.00 0.00 3.23

Stall Warning 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.70 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20

EGPWS 0.36 1.51 0.82 0.00 4.35 1.14 0.55 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.77

Hard Landing 0.36 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.70 0.22 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28

Airmiss 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.26 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.13

ATC 0.00 0.25 4.71 2.03 3.29 3.69 5.24 0.56 1.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.81

TCAS-RA 1.46 4.02 3.28 8.13 2.34 6.86 3.93 4.05 3.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.16

Ground Safety EventsDue to Ground Handling 0.00 0.25 3.48 0.00 1.28 3.69 2.18 0.11 3.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.49

Due to Ground Operation 0.00 1.26 2.46 0.00 2.56 2.46 12.44 0.45 0.00 0.00 1.10 0.00 2.16

Total number of flights 27461 39767 48830 4919 179411 113689 91619 88927 5195 13984 9101 593 623496

Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG

Deviation of Incident Rates(For the period of Jan-Jun and Jul-Dec 2005)

-100.00

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

Airmiss

Taxiway

/Run

way Exc

ursio

ns

Stall W

arning

Taxiway

/Run

way In

curs

ions

Har

d La

nding

Fire W

arning/D

etect

ion

Flight

Con

trols M

alfunct

ion

EGPW

S

Turbulenc

e

Due

to G

round

Hand

ling

ATC

Due

to G

round

Ope

ratio

n

TCAS-R

A

Syste

ms

Mulfu

nctio

n

Bird H

azard

Incid

en

t R

ate

Ch

an

ges(%

)

AAPA Safety Update

Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG

Non-damage bird strikes incidents rates (Jul-Dec 2005)

3.65

5.53

5.99

6.99

12.08

12.27

12.66

13.48

30.81

38.17

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00

BOM

PEK

PVG

SGN

TOY

DPS

HGH

TAO

DEL

SUB

Incidents per 1,000 departure

AAPA Safety Update

Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG

Damage bird strikes incidents rates (Jul-Dec 2005)

0.09

0.09

0.11

0.15

0.21

0.24

0.31

0.46

1.23

1.82

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00

SIN

FUK

ICN

HKG

BKK

KIX

NRT

HIJ

DPS

BOM

Incidents per 1,000 departures

AAPA Safety Update

Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG

TCAS RA incidents rates (Jul-Dec 2005)

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00

KUL

INCHEON

TOKYO

SIN

ANCHORAGE

BANGKOK

LOS ANGELES

NEW YORK

ORD

SFO

Incidents per 1,000 flights

AAPA Safety Update

Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG

Working Together – Information Exchange

• AAPA Action Plan :

– Safety Information Exchange

– Regional position and

formulate action strategy

– Safety outreach

– Exchange of LOSA type

experience

– Exchange of airport/ATC

hazard information

– Regional position in response

to proposed regulatory

rulemaking

– AAPA Aviation Safety Mini-

Seminar Q3 2006

• Working together value:

– Periodically update COSCAP

on information exchange

output and strategy

formulation

– Support RAST activities

– Extend strategy catchment to

include non-AAPA members

and regulators

– Availability of safety

consultants, virtual or physical

– Assist in guidance principles

– Invitation to regional seminars

(no fees) and email

information

Safety interventions are most

effective if data-driven

Different regions, types of

operations may have different

needs

Customisation essential

Other FOSWG Actions : Fuel efficiency improvement

• Infrastructure/Operational procedures

– ATC and Management

– Airways congestion

– Air route straightening

• NRT Early Gear Down Requirement

– Estimated extra fuel burn :

• AAPA member airlines - more than 1,300

tonnes per year.

• Industry - almost 2,500 tonnes per year.

– Estimated additional emissions:

• AAPA member airlines - almost 5000

tonnes of CO² per year.

• Industry - 9500 tonnes of CO² per year.

– Noise impact

Other FOSWG Actions

• ATC issues

• Sharing real time hazard report

• Aircraft call sign de-conflict study

• Ramp marking deficiencies in US airports

• ‘Unsafe' airlines banned by EU

• FSF Ground Accident Prevention (GAP) programme

Discussion

• How could AAPA better support the role and function of COSCAP?

• What deliverables are likely in the short and medium term from

collaboration between AAPA and COSCAP?

Martin ERAN-TASKER,

Technical Director

ASSOCIATION OF ASIA PACIFIC AIRLINES

merantasker@aapa.org.my

www.aapairlines.org

RVSM Harmonization

6th COSCAP-NA Steering Committee

Meeting

29-31 August 2006 by

Martin ERAN-TASKER

Technical Director

Flexibility

Predictability

RVSM Reduced

Vertical

Separation

Minimum

Efficiency

ICAO RVSM Implementation Objectives*

• Implementation based on a safety assessment to

demonstrate the safety objectives satisfied – Collision risk model

– Overall Risk

• 1000ft Vertical Separation between FL290-410

• Cost to Operators

• System Users – capability

– operating in RVSM environments

• Take account of RVSM requirements of adjacent regions

• Airspace organization and ATC System

• Global Application – Regional Implementation

*ICAO Do. 9574

RVSM Benefits

• Improved operations/efficiency

• Greater availability of the more fuel-efficient altitudes

• Greater availability of the most fuel-efficient tracks or

routes

• Increased probability that an operator will be cleared

onto

the desired track or altitude

• Enhanced controller flexibility to manage traffic through

an increased number of available altitudes

Global RVSM Implementation

• ….and where are we now?

• North Atlantic

• Pacific

• WATRS

• Europe

• Australia/ New Zealand

• Western Pacific/ South

China Sea

• Canada North

• Middle East/ Bay of Bengal

• Domestic USA/ Canada South

• Caribbean/ South America

• Korea/ Japan

Implemented FL290-410

Naha FIR

Tokyo FIR PACOTS routes

Over NOPAC & some PACOTS, with the use of Uni-directional Routes - All altitudes has

been used.

PHNL

KLAX

KSFO

KSEA

PANC

NOPAC routes

Southeast

Asia

RVSM Implementation Ongoing

• Russia CIS States in Eastern European Region and parts of the Russian

Federation implemented RVSM FL290-410

FIRs of BAKU, TBLISI, YEREVAN, and ROSTOV (over the high seas)

• Africa – status unknown FL290-410 planned 25 January 2005

Implementation ?

• China/ Afghanistan/ Mongolia/ Turkmenistan Progressing

Feet v Metres

Factors to Consider

• Harmonization – Adjacent Regions implemented FL290-FL410

• Avoid Transitions and transition errors – Lesser ATC workload

– improved ATM management and safety

– Safer separation standard between aircraft

• Commercial Fleet Mix predominately Western

specification/ build

• Regional Fleet growing

• Avionic systems orientated in feet – Potential safety issues if operation required in metres

• Reduced impact on International Carriers – Already operating in RVSM Global harmonized environment

Harmonized Approach

essential to ensure airspace

Safety

Efficiency

Flexibility

Martin Eran-Tasker, Technical Director

ASSOCIATION OF ASIA PACIFIC AIRLINES

merantasker@aapa.org.my

www.aapairlines.org