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8/8/2019 Abbas Hussain Bank of America 13May2010
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Abbas Hussain
President, Emerging Markets
13th May 2010
an o mer caMerrill Lynch
HealthCareConference
1
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GSK 1Q 2010 Turnover 7.4bn +13%(6.6bn +4% excluding pandemic sales)
GSK 1Q 2010+9%
+4%
+13% Turnover
+16% EPS rowth
Rest ofPharma0.2bn
Consumer1.2bn
+45% -1%
USPharma1.9bn
Japan Pharma0.89bn
Euro e
EmergingMarkets Pharma
0.87bn
Pharma1.9bn
+(HIV)
0.4bn-7%
2CER growth rates; Business performanceBeginning in 2010, Stiefel sales allocated to regions and all ViiV Healthcare sales shown separately .
+16%
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GSK Emerging Markets business
>12,000 sales reps85 countries
CIS
India
China
MENA
Mexico
Latin
America
SSA
*
3
= 12% of GSK Group TurnoverSource: GSK 1Q10 reported turnover including pandemic. Excluding pandemic, turnover was 713m (+17%)
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GSKs pharma presence in Emerging Markets
CISEastern &Central Euro e
India
China
MENA
Mexico
Latin
America
SSA Asia Pac(excl Japan, Aus, NZ)
4
, , ,
= 1.3bn (+40%) 1Q10Source: GSK 1Q10 reported turnover including pandemic. Excluding pandemic, turnover was 1.1bn (+19%)
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GSKs total presence in Emerging Markets
+
0.4bn 1Q10+13%
1.3bn 1Q10+40%
.1Q10
524% of GSK Group Turnover
Source: GSK 1Q10 reported turnover including pandemic. Excluding pandemic, total turnover was 1.6m (+17%)
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GSK Emerging Markets 2009 turnover
2009 3.0bn (+20%)
By region Top markets
(+
24%)
450
500
SSA
16%)
%)
0%)
)
204m
461m983m 300
350
400China*
MENA
(+ (+
(+1
22%)
(+28%)
+56%)(+6
%
(+36%)
m
231m 200
250
CIS((
271m214m
50
100
South
China*
Turkey
India
Brazil
Mexico
SaudiArabia
Russia
Egypt
Pakistan
Latina
6*China includes HKSource: Turnover and growth is GSK 2009 as reported. Growth rates are CER. Rankings are IMS MAT Dec 09
GSK ranking #11 5 3 13 7 1 16 1 1
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History of EM sales growth
GSK is catching up with EM market growth25%
20%
20%
15%
10%
5%EM (IMS data)
GSK (IMS data)
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
repor e
7Source: IMS data (Dec MAT) and GSK reported.Note: IMS audits currently do not capture all activities e.g. vaccines, and therefore undervalues sales in EM, particularly for GSK.
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Emerging market characteristics
Large markets Pay out of pocket
Need for reater access Smaller roducts
Fast growing
programmes
8
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Growth in Pharmerging Markets
IMS Tier 1, 2, 3 Pharmerging MarketsIncremental Growth
2009-2013
Growth
+$5-15bn
Growth
+$1-5bnGDPPP
P
India
Turkey Pakistan Egypt
VenezuelaUkraine S. Africa
Growth
ThailandArgentinaMexico
9Vietnam Indonesia
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Need for greater access
Brazil India S. Africa
180m 1.2bn 49mTotal population
Egypt
82m
33% 1% 4% 2%
A
42% 45% 51% 38%C+
-
26% 51% 32% 58%
E
10
A/B: No problem paying for any prescription medicine can afford premium priced branded products (A: Senior managers in business or commerce, top civil servants; B Middle managers in large organisations, owners ofsmall businesses)C+: Have some problems paying for Rx medicines can usually afford some moderately priced brands or generics but run into cost difficulties if repeat medication is prescribed (Junior managers, owners of smallestablishments and all others in non-manual positions)C-: Have major problems paying for prescription medicines can only afford the least expensive medications and only shorter courses of treatment (Skilled manual workers, manual workers with responsibility for others)D/E: Cannot afford prescription medicines have major difficulties to afford medication of any kind (D: Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers, apprentices and trainees; E: Unemployed, casual workers without regularincome, those dependent on the state)
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GSKs contribution to EM healthcare
Pre ClinicalPre Clinical ClinicalClinical NewNew PostPost HealthHealthR&DR&D R&DR&D
us nessModelsus nessModels
LaunchLaunch SystemsSystems
R&D PPPs R&D PPPs Tiered ricin Continuin 20% reinvestment
Knowledge Pool Open lab
Malaria screen
Knowledge Pool EM-focused R&D
Malaria vaccine
Price caps MIC Pricing
Branded enerics
MedicalEducation
Voluntary
LymphaticFilariasiselimination
TB, malaria
HIV
ViiV Healthcare
Brazil JV
African malariaPartnership
PHASE1
Commitment
and PAFC
Humanitarianrelief
111 PHASE = Personal Hygiene And Sanitation Education
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LDCs: Price reductions end Q1 2009 lead to morepatients affording IP products by end 2009
Francophone Sub Saharan Africa
Sales Volume
Average Price
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
12Average of Prices Vs Sum of sales volume of AVANDIA,FLIXONASE, FLIXOTIDE & SERETIDE across 4 quarters
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Avamys in Mexico:Optimal pricing delivers rapid uptake
IMSMonitor:Inhaled NasalSteroids% Weekl Market Share Units
45%
50%
30%31%
34%35%
40%
20%
27%27%
25%
30%
8% 8%
13%
10%
15%
0% 0% 0%
5% 5%
3%
0%
5%
13
w1 w2 w3 w4 w5 w6 w7 w8 w9 w10 w11 w12 w13 w14 w15 w16
AVAMYS2A(GSK) RINELON(ESX) UNICLAR(SMX) FLIXONASEAQUA(GSK) NASACORTAQ(S.A) RHINOCORT+AQUA(AZN)
Avamys launched Feb 2010
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Emerging Markets strategy
Scale up our
Build and capturethe Vaccines market
669m +30%
ass c ran sbusiness
1.3m +18%Pandemic
Drive ourInnovative brands
14Source: GSK 09 reported sales; CER growth rates
967m +17%
14
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Bolt-on acquisitions and partnerships
13 deals completed across the business will
Classic business
con r u e o e merg ng ar e s us ness
a s an
East
Algeria
Vaccines businessInnovative business Consumer
Walvax
15Dr Reddys (ex-India); Laboratoire Pharmaceutique Algrien (LPA Algeria); Walvax (Priorix in China); Neptunus (flu in China); Intercell (needle-free vaccine technology).Note: Lucozade China with Uni-President China Holdings, and Dong-A Pharmaceuticals are outside of GSKs Emerging Markets business.
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Scale up our Classic brands business
Our own portfolio Bolt-on acquisitions Portfolio deals
Egypt Oct 08 June 092007+12%
2009+20% Pakistan Dec 08
Near East July 09Licensing - July 08
45m sales 2009
EM/AP
>350 dossiers to befiled by end 2010
2007+5%
2009+11%
46m sales 2009
Mar 09Local Acquisitions
July 09
Total ClassicBusiness Growth
Brazil
16
2007
+5%
2009
+18% Algeria
Dec 09 Mexico
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Ventolin HFA in China:Increasing patient access drives expansion
Chinese government prioritized EDL as a key driver of new healthcare reform in April 2009
Salbutamol has been listed in NEDL since Oct 2009
Plans to expand Ventolin HFA penetration to low tier market
17
Reach 234 cities and over 10,000 hospitals vs current 100 cities & 6,473 hospitals
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Strategic Collaboration with Aspen
GSK acquired 19% stake (market value of 0.6bn)Establishes GSK Aspen Healthcare for Africa brand
r ngs a or a e me c nes o su - a aran r ca
Leverages GSKs infrastructure in SSA and Aspens local leadership
South AfricaDisposal of manufacturing site and tail brands simplify GSKsoperating model
Share of after tax rofits of associates and oint ventures 21m in 1Q10
18Transaction closed 30 November 2009; Market value as at 31 March 2010.
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Drive our Innovative business
Core portfolio2009 Turnover
New portfolio Future portfolio
New products:
276m (+21%) VotrientArzerradenosumabBenlysta
115m (+7%) Horizondarapladib
m Targeted R&Ddeveloping EM-
specific portfolio
51m (+11%)
y er or gas r cand H&N cancersLiver cancerMarket-specific
19
s
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Stiefel opportunity is greatest in EM
~80% of the EM derms market
110
sales by market
80
90
100 Stiefel Brands ($135m)
GSK Brands ($238m)
50
60
70
20
30
40
0
10
dia
azil
ico
tan
key
ela
udi
EM
20GSK revenues are for Calendar Year 2008, while Stiefelrevenues are for Financial Year 2008.
In Br
Mex
Pakis
Tur
Venezu
S
O
ther
Source: IMS
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Build and capture the Vaccines market
Significant market
market and is growing fastergrow po en a
Growing government attentionto ublic health a enda
Total EM vaccines market 20092.0bn (+22%)
Large birth cohorts forpaediatric vaccines
669m (+30%)GSK vaccines
growth potential
New geographies
Broad portfolio, well-positioned toprovide for spectrum of needs
21
Local partnership is critical
Source: GSK estimates for market; GSK reported sales. (2009 EM vaccines data)
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GSK has the broadest vaccine portfolio in EM
GSK Merck Sanofi Pfizer Novartis
DTPa combos
MMR / Varicella Hepatitis A Rotavirus Meningococcal dPneumococcal Influenza HPV Malaria d
22Dengue d d
= available in EM; d = Ph III / registration in EM
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Strong launches are building the vaccinesbusiness
Launched mid 2009 and already 26m in 1Q10
Mexico 3 year contract
Turkey 70% market shareHong Kong 70% market share
AMC 10 year contract for GAVI countries ($1.3bn)
23
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GSK Emerging Markets in 2015
IMS projects EM market growth Vaccines
of 13-15%1
Our objective is to grow faster Innovative
Classic
an e mar e
2009
Innovative
24
1 Source: IMS Prognosis through 2013, redefined for GSK EM region.2 including organic growth and bolt-on acquisition strategy.
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Operating profit margin
GSKs reported regional margins
2009 Operating
Profit Margin1(%)
US 66.2
exclude R&D and legal expenseswhich are heavily weightedtowards Europe and US
Europe 58.7 EM has been in investment modeEM margin expected to remain in
EM 35.3
AP/J 52.7
m - s range
251 Operating margin excluding R&D, legal and other unallocated pharmaceuticals costs, as well as profit from asset sales, andincluding pandemic.
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