54
AGEING POPULATION - Burden or Benefit? Demographic Trends Adrian Gallop Edinburgh 21 January 2002
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AGEING POPULATION- Burden or Benefit?
Demographic Trends
Adrian Gallop
Edinburgh
21 January 2002
AGEING IN THE UNITED KINGDOM
WHERE ARE WE NOW AND HOW DID WE GET HERE?
Ageing population
The main reasons for the ageing population structure of the UK population are:
Baby booms, followed by Falling fertility rates Falling mortality rates
2000-based national population projectionsUnited Kingdom
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000
Small cohorts born during WWILarge cohorts born immediately after WWIVery small cohorts at start of WWIIPost WWII baby boom1960’s baby boomLowest fertility rate
skip
Total fertility rate, United Kingdom, 1951–2000
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021
Year
Ch
ild
ren
per
wo
man
Replacement level
TFR
Average achieved family size by age and year of birth of women United Kingdom, 1940-1975
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
15 20 25 30 35 40 45Age
Ch
ildre
n p
er w
oman
1940
1950
1945
1955
1965
1960
1970
1975
* CFS for cohorts born 28 years earlier
Period and cohort measures
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021
Year
Ch
ild
ren
per
wo
man
Replacement level
TFR
CFS
* CFS for cohorts born 28 years earlier
Projecting fertility
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021
Year
Ch
ild
ren
per
wo
man
Replacement level
TFR
CFS
Expectation of life at birth according to death rates experienced in given years
United Kingdom, 1911-1998
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991Year
EO
LB
Yea
rs
Males
Females
Proportion of persons surviving to successive ages, according to death rates experienced or projected England and Wales, 1851-2031
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110Age
Pro
po
rtio
n s
urv
ivin
g
1851
1911
18911871
197119511931
203120111991
Effective annual rates of improvement in mortality between successive English Life Tables
Males
1910-12 to
1920-22 to
1930-32 to
1950-52 to
1960-62 to
1970-72 to
1980-82 to
1910-12 to
1920-22 1930-32 1950-52 1960-62 1970-72 1980-82 1990-92 1990-92Males
0 2.9 2.2 3.9 2.8 2.1 4.3 4.4 3.310 0.6 2.1 5.0 2.8 1.4 3.4 2.8 2.920 0.0 1.0 4.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.830 1.0 2.4 3.8 3.1 1.7 1.0 -0.3 2.140 1.6 2.0 3.3 2.1 0.4 2.0 0.7 1.950 2.3 0.4 1.4 1.5 -0.2 1.8 2.8 1.460 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 2.8 1.070 0.8 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.6 1.8 0.680 0.2 -0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.6 0.590 0.2 -0.7 -0.1 1.3 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.4
Age x
percentages
Effective annual rates of improvement in mortality between successive English Life Tables
Females
1910-12 to
1920-22 to
1930-32 to
1950-52 to
1960-62 to
1970-72 to
1980-82 to
1910-12 to
1920-22 1930-32 1950-52 1960-62 1970-72 1980-82 1990-92 1990-92Females
0 3.4 2.4 3.8 2.8 2.2 4.3 4.3 3.410 0.8 2.9 6.5 3.7 0.4 2.4 3.2 3.320 -0.4 1.3 5.7 6.1 -0.2 2.5 1.2 2.830 0.5 2.0 4.5 5.1 2.2 1.4 1.9 2.840 2.1 1.9 3.3 2.3 1.2 2.3 1.7 2.250 2.2 1.1 2.2 1.8 -0.2 1.7 2.5 1.760 2.0 0.7 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 1.7 1.370 1.2 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.180 0.5 -0.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.6 0.990 0.0 -0.5 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.7 0.5
Age x
percentages
Changes in mortality 1980-95
ASMRs for under 15s halved for M & F Little reduction for males 15-44 (c10%) Slowdown for females 15-44 (c20%) Greater reduction for males aged 45-74
(c30%) than females (c20%) Similar reductions for males and females
aged 75 and over (c20%)
Life expectancy at birth by social class – males (E&W)
Social class 1972-76 1982-86 1992-96 Gain over decadeI 72.0 75.1 77.7 3.1 2.6II 71.7 73.8 75.8 2.1 2.0IIIN 69.5 72.2 75.0 2.7 2.8IIIM 69.8 71.4 73.5 1.6 2.1IV 68.4 70.6 72.6 2.2 2.0V 66.5 67.7 68.2 1.2 0.5
Life expectancy at age 65 by social class – males (E&W)
Social class 1972-76 1982-86 1992-96 Gain over decadeI 14.2 15.4 16.8 1.2 1.4II 13.3 14.4 15.5 1.1 1.1IIIN 12.6 13.6 15.1 1.0 1.5IIIM 12.2 13.0 14.2 0.8 1.2IV 12.3 12.6 13.8 0.3 1.2V 11.6 11.7 12.6 0.1 0.9
AGEING IN THE UNITED KINGDOM
WHERE ARE WE GOING?
Population projections for the UK
Expectation of life at birth, United Kingdom, 1981-2040
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Year
Exp
ecta
tio
n o
f L
ife
at B
irth
(ye
ars)
Males
Females
Expectation of life at birth according to mortality rates assumed for selected years
years
Males FemalesLonger-term Longer-term
2000-01 2010-11 2020-21 2030-31 2000-01 2010-11 2020-21 2030-31
England 76.1 77.6 78.8 79.6 80.8 81.7 83.0 83.7Wales 75.6 77.1 78.3 79.0 80.2 81.2 82.5 83.3Scotland 73.6 75.0 76.2 76.9 78.8 79.9 81.2 81.9Northern Ireland 75.5 76.8 78.0 78.7 80.5 81.3 82.5 83.2
United Kingdom 75.8 77.4 78.6 79.3 80.6 81.5 82.8 83.5
* CFS for cohorts born 28 years earlier
Projecting fertility
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021
Year
Ch
ild
ren
per
wo
man
Replacement level
TFR
CFS
020
4060
80100
120140
160180
200
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Calendar year
Ne
t m
igra
tio
n (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Projecting migration
Total net migration, United Kingdom
ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE 2000-BASED NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Long-term assumptions for the 2000-based national population projections (assumptions for 1998-based projections in italics) United
Kingdom
England
Wales
Scotland Northern
Ireland Fertility – Long-term average number of children per woman
2000-based 1.74 1.75 1.75 1.60 1.80 1998-based 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.75 1.85 Mortality - Expectation of life at birth in 2025*
Males 2000-based 78.9 79.2 78.7 76.6 78.4 1998-based 78.9 79.1 78.6 77.0 78.4 Females 2000-based 83.2 83.4 83.0 81.6 82.9 1998-based 83.1 83.2 82.9 81.6 82.8 Net migration – Annual net flow from 2002-03 onwards†
2000-based +135,000 +128,000 +7,500 0 -500 1998-based +95,000 +91,000 +5,500 -1,000 -500 * Specimen year. Mortality rates are assumed to continue improving beyond 2025. † Includes international migration and cross-border migration between the countries of the UK.
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2000
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2005
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2010
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2015
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2020
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2025
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2030
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2035
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2040
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2045
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2050
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2055
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2060
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2065
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2000-based population projections United Kingdom
2070
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
Actual and projected population by broad age group, United Kingdom, 1900-2070
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(mill
ions
)
Projected
0-14
15-64
65+
Actual and projected age distribution, United Kingdom, 1981-2070
0-14
15-29
30-44
45-59
60-74
75+
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061
Year
% of total population
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Median age
Projected
Population under 16 and over pension age, United Kingdom, 1981-2025
9
10
11
12
13
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Year
Millions
9
10
11
12
13
Under 16s
Over pension age
Projected
Actual and projected dependency ratios,United Kingdom, 1971-2051
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Year
Dependants per 1,000 persons of
working age
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Pension age
Children under 16
Total
Projected
Actual and projected components of elderly dependency ratio United Kingdom, 1971-2051
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Year
Per
th
ousa
nd
peo
ple
of
wor
kin
g ag
e Projected
65-74
75+
60-64 (F)
COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN UK TO THOSE
IN OTHER COUNTRIES
Source: United Nations
Expectation of life at birth for males, 1950-2010
60
65
70
75
80
1950 1970 1990 2010
UK
USA
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Japan
Russia
Source: United Nations
Expectation of life at birth for females, 1950-2010
65
70
75
80
85
1950 1970 1990 2010
UK
USA
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Japan
Russia
Expectation of life at age 60
EU countries For males, UK lay 8th equal with 18.8 years
highest 20.3 years - Greece lowest 17.8 years - Ireland
For females, UK lay 12th with 22.5 years highest 25.1 years - France lowest 21.5 years - Ireland
Source: United Nations
Percentage increase in numbers aged 65 & over, 1990-2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Japa
n
US
A
Spa
in
Fra
nce
Rus
sia
Ger
man
y
UK
Ital
y
% increase in nos. aged 65 & over
Source: United Nations
Total period fertility rates in Europe, 1960-2010
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Eastern Europe
Northern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Source: United Nations
Number of pensioners per 1000 “workers”, 1970-2050
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
1970 1990 2010 2030 2040 2050
UK
USA
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Japan
Russia
Source: United Nations
Number of pensioners and children per 1000 “workers”,1950-2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
UK
USAGermany
France
ItalySpain
JapanRussia
SUMMARY
Actual and projected population estimates and dependency ratios,
United Kingdom, 1901-2050
Age group 1901 1931 1951 1971 1991 2000 2050
0-14 12421 11173 11325 13469 11063 11322 1001615-64 24007 31447 33434 35051 37646 39117 3948065+ 1809 3418 5468 7408 9104 9317 15928
Total 38237 46038 50227 55928 57813 59756 65424
% aged 65+ 5% 7% 11% 13% 16% 16% 24%65+/15-64 75 109 164 211 242 238 403All dep/15-64 593 464 502 596 536 528 657
DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING
falling fertility increasing expectation of life baby boomer bulge in some countries increasing elderly population increasing numbers of very elderly deteriorating dependency ratios in long term ageing working population in many countries
