Session Agenda C6

1.Video 2.Presentations (4) Host Europe3.Case review: Stakeholders & their interests4.Toolbox: Life Cycles

1

2

Toolbox Session: Life Cycle Analysis

3

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4

ExecuteResource

Negotiate& Initiate

Project Life Cycle:Process Groups

START:Client Needs?

Control

SelectConsultant

Plan

Complete& Close

Evaluation:Needs Met?

Post-ProjectReview (~1yr)

5

Overlap of Process Groups in a Phase

Built Environment: from Cradle-to-Grave

6

definition of life cycle costing

Life cycle costing is:• an economic evaluation method• that accounts for all relevant costs• over the investment’s time horizon,• adjusted for time value of money,

where appropriate

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Another Life Cycle

• Why do we want to count?• What do we want to count?• How are we going to count it?• Available data? Estimating?

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European standards: Building Construction

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Carbon Life Cycle – Data structure

Embodied carbon – •Resource extraction •Transportation, manufacturing and fabrication of a product (typically ‘cradle-to-factory gate’). •Can include energy used during the design and end-of-life stages

Operational carbon – Emissions from energy consumed once the building is occupied;• lighting, •Heating,•cooling, •ICT.

Construction carbon – •Construction site machinery•Site huts•Transport

Accuracy levels

+ /- 20-30% + /- 5% + /- 15%-70%

1-2%Total Emissions

15-30%

3-4%

5-6% 50-70% 2-4%

Source: IGT/F+G

10

a “Carbon Footprint or Carbon Profile equals the overall amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (e.g. methane, NOx, etc.) associated with a product along its supply-chain, including use and end-of-life recovery and disposal….. “

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Definition used in UK construction industry

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• Embodied carbon – the sum of fuel related carbon emissions (i.e. embodied energy which is combusted – but not feedstock energy retained within building material) and process related carbon emissions (i.e. non-fuel related emissions which may arise, for example, from chemical reactions).”

The Inventory of Carbon and Energy (ICE V2.0)as published by University of Bath, January 2011

Carbon counting

To use this data you need to measure the weight of the different materials in a building. There are two options for using the data:

1. Transform it into values for products in the units in which they are procured and use existing estimating measurement rules.

2. Produce a database to estimate weights of materials which may need a whole new set of rules of measurement and procedures

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why do we need LCC?

A dog is for life and not just for Christmas 14

Bonus Toolbox: The Wisdom of Crowds

If people do not hear the opinions of others, or if they render their true predictions anyway crowds can be incredibly wise.

James Suroweicki

Suroweicki’s ExamplesMorton Thiokol’s stock plunge

Prediction Markets

Hollywood Stock Exchange

Iowa Electronic Market

Sports Betting Markets

Who Wants to be a Millionaire?

1906 West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition

Michigania 02005

The Madness of Crowds: true or false?

We tend to think of crowds of people as irrational mobs.

IQ Diversity: which group performs better at estimation?

138

75

121 84

Alpha Group Diverse Group

132 135

139

135

137

135

111

31

In Praise of Experts?

Theorem: If an expert can integrate every variable considered by any one of the novices, the expert predicts better than the crowd of novices. Else, the crowd of novices will prevail.