Ellie Cohen and Point Blue Staff
2017 CA Land Conservation Conference
CA Council of Land Trusts
March 7, 2017
Accelerating Nature-Based Solutions:
Climate-Smart Land Trusts
Reduce impacts of environmental change and develop nature-based
solutions for wildlife and people
Point Blue Conservation Science
• 160+ staff and seasonal
scientists
• Manage over 1 billion
ecological observations
• 2017 budget: $13 million
• Founded in 1965 as Point
Reyes Bird Observatory
Nutrients
NO
Nutrients
Blob overshadowed El Nino; driving drought
>90% of warming in ocean; Heat 200m deep
http://www.nanoos.org/resources/anomalies_workshop/workshop2.php
Long et al Biogeochemical Cycles Feb 2016
Jacox et al . Geophysical Research Letters, July 2016
IUCN- Explaining Ocean Warming Sept 2016
Triple Threat: Warming, acidification & oxygen loss
Ice-free Arctic at 1.5C?
Moftakhari e al Cumulative hazard: The case of nuisance flooding. Earth’s Future, 2017; DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000494
Extreme Events
• On track for 5 degrees C
warming this century--
Impending
tipping point
for the future
of life on our
planet
Exceeding 4 of 9
‘planetary boundaries’
• Steffen et al, SCIENCE, Jan 2015, Planetary Boundaries
• Natl Acad. of Sci., Abrupt Climate Change Dec 2013
• Barnosky et al, NATURE June 2012
Image Cheng (Lily) Li.
• Climate change
• Species extinction
• Habitat loss (land-use changes)
• Fertilizers (altered
biogeochemical cycles)
We are totally reliant on nature
www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx
databank.worldbank.org
•Climate
•Flood
•Disease
•Water quality
•Recreational
•Educational
•Spiritual
•Freshwater, clean air
•Food, fisheries
•Wood, fiber, fuel
Est value= 2x global GNP or
$72 trillion in 2012
Ecosystem Services or Nature’s Benefits
Paris Climate Agreement - Dec. 2015Hold increase in global avg. temp. below 2°C (3.6F);
Goal 1.5°C (2.7F); includes nature-based solutions
Guiot, et al. Science 28 Oct 2016 DOI: 10.1126/science.aah5015
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf
www.pointblue.org/parisagreementecosystems
…importance of ensuring
integrity of all ecosystems,
including oceans….
…take action to conserve
sinks of greenhouse gases…
…Build resilience through
sustainable management of
natural resources.
Nature-Based Solutions- New Policies
Louis Blumberg, The Nature Conservancy
• Federal Agencies 2015:
include natural
infrastructure &
ecosystem services in
plans
• CA 2016--SB 379 (Jackson)
and AB 1482 (Gordon)-
requires climate adaptation
planning for state agencies,
counties, cities including
natural infrastructure
• CA 2016- Climate-smart
agriculture programs
($120m) including Healthy
Soils Initiative
“Source watersheds are now defined as
integral components of CA water infrastructure”Meadows, Streams, Upland Vegetation
Now Eligible For Billions in Public Works $
Landmark CA Law– AB 2480 -- Sept 27 2016
Extension of CA Climate LawSB32 (Pavley)– 40% reduction in GHG
emissions below 1990 levels by 2030
• Now at
440 MMT/yr
• With current
policies
375 MMT/yr
• By 2030
260 MMT/yr
http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/08/27/more-electric-cars-more-solar-power-
expected-as-state-struggles-to-reach-tough-new-climate-standards/
Climate change tool box…
Renewable
Clean Energy
Building Energy
Efficiency
Mass Transit
Vehicle Miles
Traveled
Tara G. Martin, James E. M. Watson. Intact ecosystems provide best defence against climate
change. Nature Climate Change, 2016; 6 (2): 122 DOI:10.1038/nclimate2918
*Nbs = conserving and accelerating nature’s ability to provide ecosystem services
…must include nature-based solutions (NbS*) for
nature’s benefits, including ‘negative emissions’
Water Use
Efficiency
Climate-Smart Conservation Key Principles
1. Focus on future conditions, not past; plan ahead to
reduce risks- anticipate extremes, can’t stop change
2. Design actions in watershed/ecosystem/biosphere
context across multiple scales in time and space
3. Employ flexible, adaptive approaches for timely
response to continual change
4. Prioritize actions for multiple benefits to nature and
people
5. Collaborate & communicate across sectors for
timely, long term solutions
6. Practice the TEN% Rule: Test and Experiment Now!
Adapted from: NWF Climate Smart Conservation Adaptation Principles 2011; Draft Principles for CA Resources Agency Adaptation Update 2012; CSIRO’s Climate change impacts on Australia's biodiversity conservation & protected areas, Sept 2012 Update
Protect, restore & accelerate NbS
for multiple benefits
LIFE on EARTHBiosphere
CARBON
HUMAN COMMUNITIES
Spiers et al Ecological Informatics 2016
Duffy et al PNAS May 2016
Atwood, et al. Predators - blue carbon ecosystems.
Nature Climate Change, 2015
Ballard, et al. Biological Conservation 2012
Manage forests for resilience, fire, waterAccelerate NbS: allow severe fire; habitat mosaic
Gabrielle Boisramé, Sally Thompson, Brandon Collins, Scott Stephens. Managed Wildfire Effects on Forest Resilience and Water in the Sierra Nevada.
Ecosystems, 2016; DOI: 10.1007/s10021-016-0048-1 YOSEMITE
Cre
dit: S
cott S
tephens, U
C B
erk
ele
y
• Restore natural processes –disturbance regimes (e.g. fire)
• Manage for habitat diversity – early succession & habitat edges
• Protect migration corridors across elevation/precipitation gradients
• Aid climate adaptation by thinning forests (mechanical & fire)
• Avoid mal-adaptation – e.g. high density reforestation following high severity fire
Climate-Smart Forest Management
0
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Edge Density within a 1000m radius (Contrast Weighted m/ha)
Oliv
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bu
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(p
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Accelerate NbS: (1) Restore 30,000 acres of
mountain meadows; (2) pilot climate-smart meadow
conservation easements
Sierra Meadow Partnership includes:
• Plumas Corporation
• Sierra Foothill Conservancy
• Cal Trout
• Stillwater Sciences
• Point Blue Conservation Science
• The Nature Conservancy
• US Forest Service
• UC Davis Watershed Sciences
• American Rivers
• Trout Unlimited
• Institute for Bird Populations
• Many others
Store carbon, recharge aquifers, sustain wildlife,
other benefits Norton et al. 2011 Point Blue - unpublished
What might climate-smart easements look like?
Incorporate future
climate to:
• prioritize acquisitions
• develop easement
terms & management
strategies
Feather River Land Trust: projections of climatic
water deficit- runoff & groundwater recharge- to
prioritize potential easement acquisitions; blue
watersheds prioritized to secure greatest water
resources
Yellow= more CWD Blue= less CWD by 2070
The Nature Conservancy
UC Davis
US Forest ServicePoint Blue Conservation Science
Climate-smart easements (p2) • Secure affirmative rights to restore
degraded resources for resilience to
future change
• Provide learning laboratories to test
innovative approaches Example: beaver dam analog, Childs Meadow
Store carbon (30,000 acres = 2 m tons CO2e), recharge aquifers, sustain wildlife, other benefits Norton et al. 2011 Point Blue – unpublished
Climate-smart easements (p3)
• Include multi-benefit management plans (for water, carbon,
wildlife, human welfare) to address climate impacts
• Require monitoring to modify plans & enhance long term
management
Restoration
Implemented
Bird richness increases just 3 years post restoration
Yellow Creek in the Feather River
Accelerate NbS: working on 500,000+ acres with ranchers
to enhance CA rangelands for carbon, water, biodiversity & $
http://www.carboncycle.org/marin-carbon-project/
Partner biologists
CompostPrescribed conservation grazing
To permanently protect 30,000 acres of rangelands from development with climate-smart management plans
Working with Land Trusts
Water
Shasta Dam – 4 million acre ftPhoto: US Bureau of Reclamation WRONG
Prescribed conservation
grazing on 40m acres
For every ~10 acres, store another acre foot with a 1% increase in soil organic matter
Rangelands are ~60% of CA – huge potential!
Carbon
Offset ~10% of today’s CA
emissions (440 MMT CO2 or all of CA’s
commercial and residential GHG emissions)
Conservation management
on 40m grazed rangeland
acres
Prescribed grazing can increase CO2e ~.5-1 MT CO2e per acre
Compost amendment ~.5 MT per acre or 18 Tons over 30 years
• 14 Partner Biologists
• > 500 landowners engaged
• 460,745 acres of farm &
ranch land w/ conservation
practices implemented
• $12.1m in Farm Bill funds
for total of $24m leveraged
• 11 counties where poverty
rates exceed state,
national avg.
Rangeland Watershed Initiative to date:
DEVELOP METRICS to SCALE UP:
Rangeland Monitoring Network Data sampling across 17counties
Ecolo
gic
al fu
nction
Soil Dynamic Properties
Water Infiltration
Bulk Density
Organic Soil Carbon
Vegetation
Species composition
Cover
Birds
Abundance
Diversity
http://www.pointblue.org/our-science-and-services/conservation-science/working-
lands/rangeland-monitoring-network/
http://www.tomkatranch.org/soaking-it-in-water-infiltration-research-at-tomkat-ranch/
Handbook of Methods
Online Data Entry Tools
www.pointblue.org/rmn
Lewis et al. 2015,~3 miles over 45 yrs = Marin Co. reduction goals of ~84,000 T CO2e by 2020
Matzek et al. 2015, Seavy et al.2009; Gardali et al. 2006,
Golet et al.2008
Restore Riparian HabitatAccelerate NbS: climate-smart ecological restoration
• Filters out pollutants
• Recharges groundwater
• Captures carbon, slows flooding
• Supports birds, fish, other
wildlife
• Protects soil
• Increases property values,
recreation
Apply the 10% Rule Every Day
T = Test &
E = Experiment
N = Now
Ok be 80% performer on agency requirements!!
Our Coast Our Future- SLR, storm surge online toolAccelerate NbS: catalyze adaptation action including natural infrastructure
Partners:• USGS
• NOAA
• POINT BLUE
• NPS
CA Coastline
www.pointblue.org/ocof
prioritize actions for a range of future scenarios
Urban Green Infrastructure – resilience, benefits
Accelerate NbS: rain gardens, permeable surfaces, green alleys
Trust for Public Land
Natural
Resource
Managers
Scientists
Government
& Regulators
Human
Communities
20th century silo mindset: it’s all about me!
Conduct Scenario Planning
Bring together
diverse
stakeholders to
address climate
change in an
uncertain future
Scenario Planning
See also: http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/scenario-
planning/index_html
Moore, Sara S.; E. Seavy, Nathaniel; Gerhart, Matt. Scenario Planning for Climate
Change Adaptation—A Guidance for Resource Managers. Point Blue
Conservation Science & California Coastal Conservancy 2013.
No more ‘business as usual’
- Reverse greenhouse gas
emissions,
- Transition to clean, efficient
and equitable energy and
water-use economy, and,
- Make nature-based, multi-
benefit approaches an equal
priority-- required for success.
“We have to wake up to
the fierce urgency of the
now”Jim Yong Kim on Climate ChangePresident, The World Bank
What do we need to do?
1. Not just protect but actively manage to accelerate
NbS including climate-smart easement strategies
2.Prioritize actions for multiple benefits to nature and
people in watershed/ecosystem context
3.Decide what we aren’t going to do
4.Engage local communities & communicate across
sectors
5.Invest in demonstration projects and scale up with
standardized metrics and regular monitoring
6.Practice the TEN% Rule: Test and Experiment Now!
WE HAVE CHOICES
http://blog.savesfbay.org/2013/09/bay-or-river/
What will each of us start doing differently
today?
Be bold, take risks,
innovate and act now to accelerate
nature’s benefits for wildlife & people
Global Carbon Budget 2016: continued low growth in
carbon emissions
http://www.earth-system-science-
data.net/about/news_and_press/2016-11-14_global-carbon-
budget-2016.html
Major Investments in
Nature-based Solutions Pay Off! Water flowing, aquifers replenished and wildlife thriving despite
extensive drought August, 2030
• baylandsgoals.org/science-update-2015/
• mavensnotebook.com/2015/07/29/tidal-marshes-and-
climate-change/ Callaway, 2015
California Coastal Restoration Success!Carbon captured, communities healthier, wildlife increased, and
infrastructure protected despite rising seas Sept 2046
Because of our collaborative
climate-smart conservation
actions today, healthy
ecosystems will sustain
thriving wildlife & human
communities well into the
future…
Thank You!Anonymous (2)
11th Hour Fund
Audubon California
Bay Area Ecosystems Climate Change Consortium
S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation
Bernice Barbour Foundation
Bureau of Reclamation
Bureau of Land Management
California Coastal Conservancy
California Department of Fish and Game
California Department of Water Resources
California Bay Delta Authority
California Landscape Conservation Cooperative
California State Parks
Central Valley Joint Venture
Faucett Catalyst Foundation
Richard Grand Foundation
Land Trusts
Marin Community Foundation
Giles Mead Foundation
Moore Family Foundation
David and Lucile Packard Foundation
National Park Service
National Science Foundation
NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries
Natural Resource Conservation Service
Resources Legacy Fund Foundation
SF State University
San Francisco Bay Joint Venture
Sonoma Land Trust
The Nature Conservancy
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
USDA Forest Service
US Geological Survey
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
and Point Blue Board, Members and Staff