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Copyright © 2010, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved. SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc. in the USA and other countries. ® indicates USA registration. Closing the Gap Between Credit Access and Risk Management Clark R. Abrahams Chief Financial Architect, SAS Institute, Inc Banking/Financial Services SAS Global Forum 2010
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Page 1: Access and Risk Management - SAS Supportsupport.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings10/378-2010.pdf · Risk Pooling / Diversification / Risk Sharing on the Lending Side ... Credit

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p B

etw

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Access a

nd R

isk M

anagem

ent

Cla

rk R

. A

bra

ha

ms

Ch

ief

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an

cia

l A

rch

ite

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c

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

Page 2: Access and Risk Management - SAS Supportsupport.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings10/378-2010.pdf · Risk Pooling / Diversification / Risk Sharing on the Lending Side ... Credit

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en

da

In

tro

du

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he

Need

fo

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reate

r C

red

it A

ccess

F

ram

ew

ork

Co

nstr

uc

tio

n

B

ig P

ictu

re V

iew

–P

rod

uc

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ine

s / I

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tuti

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s / C

ou

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Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

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es a

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eg

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sti

tute

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c.

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SA

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ati

on

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Cre

dit A

cce

ss

Banked

vs. U

nb

an

ke

d

B

an

ke

d c

onsum

ers

obta

in low

er

fees o

n t

ransactions, hig

her

retu

rns o

n s

avin

gs,

and

low

er

rate

s o

n lo

an

s

T

he U

nbanked

•D

efi

nit

ion

? –

Ha

ve

no

acco

un

t w

ith

a r

eg

ula

ted

de

po

sit-t

akin

g in

stitu

tio

n

−W

here

? –

In e

very

countr

y!

−S

co

pe?

–V

aries,

but

as m

any a

s 4

0-8

5%

of consum

ers

; urb

an a

nd r

ura

l

•W

ho

? –

Ske

we

d, b

ut n

ot re

str

icte

d to

, lo

we

r in

co

me

/le

ss fo

rma

lly

educate

d

•W

ha

t? –

De

ad

Ca

pit

al e

stim

ate

s o

f u

p to

$1

.0 B

illio

n I

n M

exic

o a

lon

e!

−C

on

seq

uen

ces?

–T

he U

nbanked P

ay a

Po

vert

y T

ax

−H

ow

Mu

ch

? –

In s

om

e insta

nces 1

5%

, or

nearly 2

month

s o

f w

ages

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

Page 4: Access and Risk Management - SAS Supportsupport.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings10/378-2010.pdf · Risk Pooling / Diversification / Risk Sharing on the Lending Side ... Credit

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.

Cre

dit A

cce

ss

May B

e Im

pro

ve

d B

y C

ha

ng

es in

Sta

tus Q

uo

•C

olo

mb

ia: T

he

me

of B

an

ca

riza

cio

n–

Dr.

Alb

ert

o C

arr

asquill

a, M

inis

tro d

e

Hacie

nda y

Cre

dito P

ublic

o [W

orld B

ank P

olic

y R

esearc

h W

ork

ing P

aper

3834 (

2006)]

1.

Indic

ato

rs o

f pote

ntial dem

and

2.

Su

ita

bili

ty/a

ffo

rda

bili

ty o

f lo

an

pro

du

cts

offe

red

3.

Re

vie

w o

f re

gu

latio

ns

4.

Te

ch

no

log

ica

l co

nsid

era

tio

ns

5.

Physic

al access to b

anks in the c

om

munity

6.

Cu

sto

me

r cu

ltu

re / n

orm

s / fin

an

cia

l h

ab

its

7.

Fin

an

cia

l e

du

ca

tio

n

8.

Tru

st

•M

ex

ico

: S

imila

r a

pp

roa

ch

es e

ch

oe

d –

World B

ank R

eport

No.

32418

-MX

(2005)

In

form

atio

na

l (1

,7,8

)

P

rod

uct (2

,6)

P

rice

(2

,6)

L

oca

tio

n/n

eig

hb

orh

oo

d (

5)

T

echnolo

gic

al (4

)

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

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•T

rus

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ate

r T

ranspare

ncy /

Dis

clo

sure

–N

o s

ecre

t re

cip

es

–F

oste

rs U

nders

tandin

g -

-B

orr

ow

er

Vie

w =

Lender

Vie

w

–G

reate

r A

ccura

cy--

yet

more

sim

ple

; T

horo

ugh –

yet

more

concis

e

–C

onsid

ers

full

conte

xt

–N

o o

ne-s

ize-f

its-a

ll

–G

rounded in c

om

mon s

ense –

foste

rs c

onfidence

•P

hys

ica

l b

an

kin

g p

res

en

ce

in

co

mm

un

itie

s

–M

easuring m

ark

et

pote

ntial –

incom

e/s

pend p

er

acre

–In

form

al econom

y a

nd d

em

and f

or

cre

dit

Neig

hb

orh

oo

d o

f N

eed

Neig

hb

orh

oo

d o

f O

pp

ort

un

ity

Po

ve

rty R

ate

2X

Na

t’l A

vg

.S

ign

ific

an

t A

gg

rega

te H

H In

co

me

Unem

plo

ym

ent

2X

Nat’l A

vg.

Sig

nific

ant A

ggre

gate

Reta

il S

pen

din

g

Overc

row

din

g 4

X N

at’l A

vg.

Media

n H

om

e V

alu

es A

bove N

at’l A

vg.

Agin

g H

ousin

g S

tock

Ow

ner

Occupancy b

y B

uild

ing 7

5%

Sam

e N

eig

hb

orh

oo

d !

! –

Is G

lass H

alf

Fu

ll o

r H

alf

Em

pty

?!

O

n t

he

Su

rfac

e

B

as

ed

on

20

00

Cen

su

s a

nd

Pu

blic

Da

ta

U

po

n D

ee

per

Ins

pec

tio

n

B

as

ed

on

Dri

llD

ow

n A

naly

sis

by S

ocia

l C

om

pa

ct

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

Page 6: Access and Risk Management - SAS Supportsupport.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings10/378-2010.pdf · Risk Pooling / Diversification / Risk Sharing on the Lending Side ... Credit

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tic F

ram

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ork

s a

nd I

nfo

rma

tio

n T

ech

no

logy

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elp

•P

rod

uc

t fo

cu

s

–B

usin

ess P

ractice

s -

-M

akin

g M

on

ey W

hile D

oin

g G

oo

d

B

ette

r C

usto

mer

Segm

enta

tion

P

roducts

Geare

d T

ow

ard

s L

ow

/Modera

te I

ncom

e T

iers

H

ow

to

do

au

tom

ate

d u

nd

erw

ritin

g

of

loa

ns fo

r t

he

unbanked

M

issin

g/incom

ple

te d

ata

–la

ck o

f cre

dit b

ure

au r

ecord

P

roble

ms o

f docum

enta

tion/

verification

•P

ric

ing

–S

hould

be M

ark

et-

driven

–D

eposit/L

oan A

ggre

gation –

Incre

ase S

cale

to

Lo

wer

Co

st

P

ow

er

in n

um

be

rs –

poole

d s

avin

gs c

an b

e a

cheap s

ourc

e

of

fun

ds

R

isk P

oolin

g / D

ivers

ific

ation / R

isk S

hari

ng o

n t

he L

endin

g

Sid

e

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

Page 7: Access and Risk Management - SAS Supportsupport.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings10/378-2010.pdf · Risk Pooling / Diversification / Risk Sharing on the Lending Side ... Credit

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serv

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am

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iste

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AS

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sti

tute

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c.

in t

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icate

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SA

reg

istr

ati

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.

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

Page 8: Access and Risk Management - SAS Supportsupport.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings10/378-2010.pdf · Risk Pooling / Diversification / Risk Sharing on the Lending Side ... Credit

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sti

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istr

ati

on

.

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

Page 9: Access and Risk Management - SAS Supportsupport.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings10/378-2010.pdf · Risk Pooling / Diversification / Risk Sharing on the Lending Side ... Credit

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c.

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or

serv

ice n

am

es a

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sti

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Fra

ud F

ram

ew

ork

& C

red

it F

ram

ew

ork

Syne

rgy

Help

s t

o C

lose t

he G

ap

Cre

dit R

isk A

ssessm

ent:

Th

e N

ew

Lendin

g S

yste

m for

Borr

ow

ers

, Lenders

& I

nvesto

rs, C

lark

Abra

ham

s &

Min

gyuan Z

hang,

copyrig

ht

2009,

SA

S Institu

te, In

c.

Reprin

ted w

ith p

erm

issio

n o

f J

ohn

Wile

y &

Sons, In

c. [P

age 1

26]

Ap

plic

ant-

Sup

plie

d

Info

rmat

ion

Au

the

ntica

tio

n

& F

rau

d F

ilte

r

A

pplic

ant

R

efe

ren

ce

s

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

Page 10: Access and Risk Management - SAS Supportsupport.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings10/378-2010.pdf · Risk Pooling / Diversification / Risk Sharing on the Lending Side ... Credit

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istr

ati

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.

5 C

’s o

f C

red

itP

rim

ary

Fa

cto

rs –

Mu

st

Co

ver

All 5

C’s

fo

r S

ec

ure

d L

oa

ns

C

ha

rac

ter

C

ap

acit

y

C

ap

ital

C

olla

tera

l

C

on

dit

ion

s

B O R R O W E R

T R A N S A C T I O N

C

red

it R

isk A

sse

ssm

en

t: T

he

New

Le

nd

ing

Syste

m f

or

Bo

rro

wers

, L

en

ders

& In

vesto

rs,

Cla

rk A

bra

ha

ms &

Min

gyu

an

Zh

an

g, co

pyri

gh

t

2009,

SA

S I

ns

titu

te, In

c.

Rep

rin

ted

wit

h

pe

rmis

sio

n o

f J

oh

n W

iley &

So

ns

, In

c. [p

ag

es 5

4-5

6]

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

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s U

SA

reg

istr

ati

on

.

How

to

Mod

el C

hara

cte

r?

Perf

orm

an

ce o

n e

xis

tin

g /

past

fina

ncia

l o

blig

atio

ns

•P

aym

ent

his

tory

fro

m c

redit b

ure

au

•S

elf-r

eport

ed a

nd v

erified

P

ers

iste

nce

•W

ill / d

ete

rmin

ation o

f th

e b

orr

ow

er

−W

ork

eth

ic –

will

ing to w

ork

multip

le/d

iffe

rent/part

-tim

e jobs w

hen n

eeded

−W

ork

His

tory

/job s

tabili

ty/ tr

ain

ing/

experience/

education

−M

ark

eta

ble

/ t

ransfe

rable

skill

s

•D

ependabili

ty o

f th

e b

orr

ow

er

−L

ett

ers

of

Re

fere

nce

–C

ha

racte

r

−E

sta

blis

hed in the c

om

munity v

ers

us tra

nsie

nt

•F

aith

−S

erv

ice to c

ountr

y,

com

munity,

relig

ious o

rganiz

ation

−S

ocia

l netw

ork

–fa

mily

, fr

iends,

com

munity

−R

esponsib

le b

ehavio

r

•S

trength

−P

hysic

al health

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

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e 4

7, n

o fo

rma

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du

ca

tio

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o p

erm

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t jo

b b

ut ste

ad

y

do

me

stic w

ork

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r se

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ife

sa

vin

gs

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ow

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aym

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t o

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21

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up

lex h

om

e in

Sa

n

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ncis

co, le

avin

g n

o fin

an

cia

l cu

sh

ion

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5 y

ea

r fixe

d r

ate

lo

an

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Sh

e r

en

ted

ou

t th

e lo

we

r fla

t. H

ere

’s h

ow

sh

e r

ate

d a

t lo

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clo

sin

g:

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

Page 13: Access and Risk Management - SAS Supportsupport.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings10/378-2010.pdf · Risk Pooling / Diversification / Risk Sharing on the Lending Side ... Credit

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fu

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13

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term

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H

om

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r $

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irth

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y a

t H

er

Ho

me o

f 43 Y

ears

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

Page 14: Access and Risk Management - SAS Supportsupport.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings10/378-2010.pdf · Risk Pooling / Diversification / Risk Sharing on the Lending Side ... Credit

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bou

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odel fo

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e 5

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of

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dit.

H

ow

ever,

th

e t

rade

-off is loss o

f tr

anspa

rency –

with s

coring y

ou a

re c

reating

more

secre

t sauce!

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

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hre

sh

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ma

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r c

ha

nn

el

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

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mp

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rro

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en

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bra

ha

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gyu

an

Zh

an

g, co

pyri

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SA

S I

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titu

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c.

Rep

rin

ted

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h

pe

rmis

sio

n o

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oh

n W

iley &

So

ns

, In

c. [P

ag

e 6

7,

Exh

ibit

2.1

0]

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

Page 17: Access and Risk Management - SAS Supportsupport.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings10/378-2010.pdf · Risk Pooling / Diversification / Risk Sharing on the Lending Side ... Credit

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rro

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gyu

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ns

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c.

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rin

ted

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rmis

sio

n o

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So

ns

, In

c. [P

ag

es 8

5-8

6,

Exh

ibit

2.2

2]

Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010

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Offic

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Banking/Financial ServicesSAS Global Forum 2010


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