Achievability Issues

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Achievability IssuesAchievability Issues

Conservation Resources Advisory Conservation Resources Advisory CommitteeCommittee

March 12, 2009March 12, 2009

slide 2


OutlineOutline

How Achievability is Used & CalculatedHow Achievability is Used & Calculated Consequences of AssumptionsConsequences of Assumptions Interaction with Stock EstimatesInteraction with Stock Estimates Near-Term Penetration AssumptionsNear-Term Penetration Assumptions Long-Term Penetration AssumptionsLong-Term Penetration Assumptions

slide 3


How Achievability is UsedHow Achievability is UsedConservation

ResourcesGenerating Resources

Prices for Fuel, Capital, CO2, Siting,

…

Load

Demand Response

Imports

Similarly Reliable & Available Resource Options Reliability Constraints

Regional Portfolio Model Develops Plans & Analyzes Cost & Risk for Plans

(Plans are Amount and Timing of Resource Decisions)

Time-Dependent Cost & Availability

slide 4


Consequences:Consequences: Near-Term Achievability PenetrationNear-Term Achievability Penetration

– Acts as Practical Limit on DeploymentActs as Practical Limit on Deployment– Impacts Near-Term TargetsImpacts Near-Term Targets– Impacts Risk-Mitigation Premium Impacts Risk-Mitigation Premium

» Higher Cost-Effective Limit for Lost-OpportunityHigher Cost-Effective Limit for Lost-Opportunity

Long-Term AchievabilityLong-Term Achievability– Recognizes Can’t Get it AllRecognizes Can’t Get it All– Retain 85% Max Penetration for 6Retain 85% Max Penetration for 6thth Plan Plan

» Some Less (HPWH, Solar PV, Set-Top, LED Sign)Some Less (HPWH, Solar PV, Set-Top, LED Sign)

slide 5


Non-Lost

Opp

ortunity

How Achievability is How Achievability is CalculatedCalculated

Remaining Stock Estimate (or

Technical Potential)

Achievable Penetration

Lost Opportunity

Achievable Lost Opportunity Conservation Potential - Cumulative by 2029 Base Forecast - All Sector

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

<0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

>200

Cost - TRC Net Levelized Cost in $ per MWh ($2006)

MW

a

Commercial

Residential Space Conditioning

Residential Water - Light - Appliances

Achievable Retrofit Conservation Potential - Cumulative by 2029 Base Forecast - All Sector

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000


MW

a

Agriculture

Distribution

Industrial

Commercial

ResidentialSpace

ResidentialAppliances

Long-TermAchievable over 20 Years

Near-Term Penetration RatesYear by Year Maximum Penetration

slide 6


Limited to Annual Stock or Unit Availability

Limited to Remaining Stock 2029

Systems & Equipment with Slow Turnover Rates (e.g. windows)

Replacement Systems & Equipment(Driven by Stock Turnover Rates)

Lost-Opportunity & RetrofitLost-Opportunity & RetrofitStock Estimates Stock Estimates

Lost-Opportunity Conservation

Incremental Cost & Savings Compared to

New Baseline

Retrofit Conservation

Incremental Cost & Savings Compared to

Retrofit Baseline

Existing Building Stock not addressed by turnover (e.g. weatherization)

New Homes, Buildings & Equipment(Driven by Population Growth & Equip Saturation)

slide 7


Applicable Stock EstimatesApplicable Stock Estimates

Estimates are Measure-Specific & InteractiveEstimates are Measure-Specific & Interactive Lost-OpportunityLost-Opportunity

– New StockNew Stock» Function of Population & Employment & EconomyFunction of Population & Employment & Economy

– Replacement EquipmentReplacement Equipment» Function of equipment turnover & remodel rates Function of equipment turnover & remodel rates » Ex: Lighting system turnover rate higher in Retail than Ex: Lighting system turnover rate higher in Retail than

SchoolsSchools

RetrofitRetrofit– Existing StockExisting Stock– Minus Demolition & Conversion & ReplacementMinus Demolition & Conversion & Replacement– Plus New & Replacement not addressed as Lost-OppsPlus New & Replacement not addressed as Lost-Opps

slide 8


Applicable Stock EstimateApplicable Stock EstimateExampleExample

Annual Stock Available for Commercial Lighting (Lost-Opportunuty)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

Year

Lo

st-O

pp

Sto

ck A

vaila

ble

(m

illio

n S

F)

New Buildings Existing Building Turnover

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55thth Plan Plan Achievable Penetration RatesAchievable Penetration Rates

Lost-Opportunity Conservation

Retrofit Conservation

Ramp 15% to Max 85% in 12 Years

(Ramp Up 14 MWa to 85 MWa per Year @$100/MWh)

Limited to 120 MWa per YearBased on High Historical Performance

Max 85%

5th Plan Lost Opportuntity Penetration Rate

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Year

Fra

cti

on

of

Ap

plic

ab

le

Sto

ck

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Developing 6Developing 6thth Plan Achievable Plan Achievable Penetration RatesPenetration Rates

Two ApproachesTwo Approaches Historic PerspectiveHistoric Perspective

– Recent Regional PerformanceRecent Regional Performance Forward-LookingForward-Looking

– Build from Bottom UpBuild from Bottom Up– Measure-by-Measure Penetration RatesMeasure-by-Measure Penetration Rates

slide 11


Near-Term AchievabilityNear-Term Achievability

Historic PerspectiveHistoric Perspective Program PerformanceProgram Performance Pace of Codes & StandardsPace of Codes & Standards Periodic Survey of Current StockPeriodic Survey of Current Stock

Forward LookingForward Looking Considers Character of MeasuresConsiders Character of Measures Implementation StrategiesImplementation Strategies Size & Cost Size & Cost Physical Availability of EquipmentPhysical Availability of Equipment Training & Education RequirementsTraining & Education Requirements

slide 12


Historic PerspectiveHistoric Perspective

BPA, Utility & NEEA ProgramsBPA, Utility & NEEA Programs Averaged 150 MWa per year since 2001Averaged 150 MWa per year since 2001 Over 200 MWa in 2007Over 200 MWa in 2007 Probably >200 MWa in 2008Probably >200 MWa in 2008 At $40-50 /MWh Avoided CostsAt $40-50 /MWh Avoided Costs

Codes & StandardsCodes & Standards One third of Savings since 1991One third of Savings since 1991 Large Long-Term PotentialLarge Long-Term Potential Near-Term Impact Limited by New Near-Term Impact Limited by New

Stock Additions & Turnover RatesStock Additions & Turnover Rates

Annual Regional Conservation Savings 1991 - 2007

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Inc

rem

en

tal S

av

ing

s (

MW

a)

Federal Standards

State Codes

Alliance Programs

BPA and Utility Programs

slide 13


Forward-Looking Forward-Looking Use a Bottom-Up Approach to EstimateUse a Bottom-Up Approach to Estimate

Penetration RatesPenetration Rates

Estimate Annual Penetration Rates by Measure BundleEstimate Annual Penetration Rates by Measure Bundle Distinguish Features that Impact Penetration RateDistinguish Features that Impact Penetration Rate

– Complexity of MeasuresComplexity of Measures– Delivery Mechanisms & Decision Makers Delivery Mechanisms & Decision Makers – Current Market SaturationCurrent Market Saturation– Equipment & Infrastructure AvailabilityEquipment & Infrastructure Availability– Subject to Code or StandardSubject to Code or Standard– Size & CostSize & Cost

(Annual Penetration Rate) x (Annual Units) x (Unit (Annual Penetration Rate) x (Annual Units) x (Unit Savings)Savings)

Then Sum of All Measure-Level Supply Curves by Year & Then Sum of All Measure-Level Supply Curves by Year & Levelized Cost binLevelized Cost bin

slide 14


Penetration Rate “Families”Penetration Rate “Families”

Lost-OpportunityLost-Opportunity– Emerging TechnologyEmerging Technology

– LO SlowLO Slow

– LO MediumLO Medium

– LO FastLO Fast

RetrofitRetrofit– New Measure New Measure

– In 20 Years In 20 Years

– In 10 Years In 10 Years

– In 5 YearsIn 5 Years

slide 15


Family of Lost-Opportunity Family of Lost-Opportunity Penetration RatesPenetration Rates

Annual Lost-Opportunity Penetration Rates

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

20-Y

ear C

umula

tive

Year

Fra

cti

on

of

An

nu

al U

nit

s A

ch

eiv

ab

le

LO 5P

LO Mature

LO 50Fast

LO 20Fast

LO 12Fast

LO 6Slow

LO 2Slow

slide 16


Family of Retrofit Penetration Family of Retrofit Penetration RatesRates

Annual Retrofit Penetration Rates

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

Year

Fra

cti

on

of

20

29

Ac

he

iva

ble

Un

its

Retro in 5

Retro in 10

Retro in 15

Retro in 20

New Measure Fast

New Measure Medium

New Measure Slow

slide 17


Residential Lost-OpportunityResidential Lost-OpportunityAchievable Penetration Rate ThemesAchievable Penetration Rate Themes

LO SlowLO Slow RefrigeratorsRefrigerators FreezersFreezers CookingCooking Heat Pump UpgradesHeat Pump Upgrades Elec Furnace to HP ConversionsElec Furnace to HP Conversions

LO MediumLO Medium Clothes WasherClothes Washer DishwasherDishwasher Clothes DryerClothes Dryer Shell & Window MeasuresShell & Window Measures Window AC UnitsWindow AC Units

About 540 MWa by 2029 About 340 MWa by 2029

LO Emerging TechnologyLO Emerging Technology Heat Pump Water HeaterHeat Pump Water Heater Gravity Film Heat ExchangerGravity Film Heat Exchanger

About 600 MWa by 2029

slide 18


Residential RetrofitResidential RetrofitAchievable Penetration Rate ThemesAchievable Penetration Rate Themes

Retro in 5 YearsRetro in 5 Years ShowerheadsShowerheads LightingLighting

Retro in 15 YearsRetro in 15 Years WeatherizationWeatherization HVAC ConversionsHVAC Conversions

About 240 MWa by 2029 About 750 MWa by 2029

New Measure Ramp-UpNew Measure Ramp-Up Solar DHWSolar DHW Solar PVSolar PV


slide 19


Commercial Lost-OpportunityCommercial Lost-OpportunityAchievable Penetration Rate ThemesAchievable Penetration Rate Themes

LO FastLO Fast Lighting Power DensityLighting Power Density Lighting ControlsLighting Controls Premium HVAC EquipmentPremium HVAC Equipment Variable-Speed ChillersVariable-Speed Chillers Glass – New & ReplacementGlass – New & Replacement Simple HVAC Measures – NewSimple HVAC Measures – New Package Refrigeration EquipPackage Refrigeration Equip Exterior Building LightingExterior Building Lighting Street & Roadway Lighting - NewStreet & Roadway Lighting - New

LO MediumLO Medium Integrated Building DesignIntegrated Building Design DaylightingDaylighting Complex HVAC MeasuresComplex HVAC Measures Street & Roadway Lighting - ReplStreet & Roadway Lighting - Repl Parking LightingParking Lighting SignageSignage



slide 20


Commercial RetrofitCommercial RetrofitAchievable Penetration Rate ThemesAchievable Penetration Rate Themes

Retro in 10 YearsRetro in 10 Years Lighting Power DensityLighting Power Density Lighting ControlsLighting Controls Glass – RetrofitGlass – Retrofit Simple HVAC MeasuresSimple HVAC Measures InsulationInsulation DCV Restaurant HoodsDCV Restaurant Hoods Computer Servers & ITComputer Servers & IT

Retro in 20 YearsRetro in 20 Years Controls Commissioning ComplexControls Commissioning Complex Complex HVAC MeasuresComplex HVAC Measures Grocery RefrigerationGrocery Refrigeration Network PC ControlsNetwork PC Controls Sewage TreatmentSewage Treatment Water SupplyWater Supply



slide 21


Industrial Lost-OpportunityIndustrial Lost-OpportunityAchievable Penetration Rate ThemesAchievable Penetration Rate Themes

LO FastLO Fast Lighting Power DensityLighting Power Density Lighting ControlsLighting Controls

LO MediumLO Medium Material HandlingMaterial Handling Motor RewindMotor Rewind

About 70 MWa by 2029About 60 MWa by 2029

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Industrial RetrofitIndustrial RetrofitAchievable Penetration Rate ThemesAchievable Penetration Rate Themes

Retro in 10 YearsRetro in 10 Years Compressed Air MeasuresCompressed Air Measures Centrifugal Fans Centrifugal Fans BeltsBelts TransformersTransformers Refrigeration & Food StorageRefrigeration & Food Storage Chip Fab MeasuresChip Fab Measures

Retro in 20 YearsRetro in 20 Years Fan & Pump OptimizationFan & Pump Optimization Premium Fan & Pump EquipPremium Fan & Pump Equip Pulp & Paper EquipmentPulp & Paper Equipment



New Measure Ramp-Up (?)New Measure Ramp-Up (?) Plant Energy ManagementPlant Energy Management Energy Project ManagementEnergy Project Management Integrated Plant Energy ManagementIntegrated Plant Energy Management


slide 23


Agriculture RetrofitAgriculture RetrofitAchievable Penetration RateAchievable Penetration Rate

Retro in 10 YearsRetro in 10 Years Scientific Irrigation SystemsScientific Irrigation Systems Irrigation HardwareIrrigation Hardware DairyDairy

About 110 MWa

slide 24


Distribution System RetrofitDistribution System RetrofitAchievable Penetration RateAchievable Penetration Rate

New Measure Ramp-Up MediumNew Measure Ramp-Up Medium Line Drop CompensationLine Drop Compensation VAR Management. Phase Load Balancing, & Feeder Load BalancingVAR Management. Phase Load Balancing, & Feeder Load Balancing Substation Voltage Regulators & Select Re-ConductoringSubstation Voltage Regulators & Select Re-Conductoring End-of Line Voltage Control RegulatorsEnd-of Line Voltage Control Regulators

About 420 MWa by 2029Annual Retrofit Penetration Rates

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

Year

Fra

cti

on

of

20

29

Ac

he

iva

ble

Un

its

Retro in 5

Retro in 10

Retro in 15

Retro in 20

New Measure Fast

New Measure Medium

New Measure Slow

slide 25


Initial ResultsInitial ResultsBottom Up Lost-Opportunity Supply Curve Bottom Up Lost-Opportunity Supply Curve

2010-20192010-2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

<0$

30$60$90

$120

$150

$180>20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

MWa

Year

Cost in $ per MWh

slide 26


Initial Results: Initial Results: Bottom Up Retrofit Supply Curve Bottom Up Retrofit Supply Curve

2010-20192010-2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

20172018

2019

<0$2

0$40$6

0$80

$100$1

20$140$1

60$180$2

00

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

MW

a

Year

Cost $ per MWh

slide 27


EndEnd

slide 28


Reference SlidesReference Slides Residential MeasuresResidential Measures Commercial MeasuresCommercial Measures Industrial MeasuresIndustrial Measures

ALL NUMBERS ARE ALL NUMBERS ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION!SUBJECT TO REVISION!

slide 29


Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Water Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Water Heating, Lighting and Appliance Supply CurveHeating, Lighting and Appliance Supply Curve

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

< 0<10<20<30<40<50<60<70<80<90

<100

<110

<120

<130

<140

<150

<160

<170

<180

<190

<200

>200

Real Levelized Cost (2006$)

Tech

nic

al Pote

nti

al (a

MW

)

Solar PV

Solar DHW

Microwaves & Ovens

Dishwasher

Freezer

Refrigerator

Clothes Dryer

Clothes Washer

Lighting

Showerheads

Waste Water HeatRecovery HPWH

Efficient DHW Tanks

slide 30


Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Space Conditioning Supply CurveSpace Conditioning Supply Curve

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

< 0<10<20<30<40<50<60<70<80<90

<100

<110

<120

<130

<140

<150

<160

<170

<180

<190

<200

>200

Real Levelized Cost (2006$)

Tech

nic

al Pote

ntial (a

MW

)

HVAC Supplement (DHP)

HVAC HP Upgrade

HVAC HP Conversion

Shell Upgrade - New MH

Shell Upgrade - New MF

Shell Upgrade - New SF

ResWX MH

ResWX MF

ResWX SF

slide 31


Commercial Sector Achievable Savings Commercial Sector Achievable Savings Potential by End Use by 2029Potential by End Use by 2029

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Retrofit Lost-Opportuntiy

EXT LI GHTPROCESSMULTILI GHTHVAC

slide 32


Building-Related MeasuresBuilding-Related MeasuresCumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030Cumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030

End Use Measure Bundle New NR Retro TotalLighting Lighting Power Density 51 354 38 443Lighting Daylighting with Skylights 16 0 0 16Lighting Daylighting with Windows 3 12 0 15Lighting Lighting Controls Interior 6 65 8 79Lighting Exit Signs 0 0 0 0HVAC Premium HVAC Equipment 8 31 0 39HVAC Variable Speed Chiller 1 14 0 15HVAC Controls Commission Complex HVAC 10 0 124 134HVAC Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair 4 8 16 29HVAC Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC 6 0 0 6HVAC Demand Control Ventilation 4 4 14 22HVAC ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes 3 9 0 12HVAC Evaporative Assist Cooling 0 0 0 0HVAC Windows 3 8 22 33HVAC Roof Insulation 0 3 0 3HVAC Duct Sealing and Repair 0 0 0 0HVAC Efficienct fans, pumps and drives 0 0 0 0Ext Lighting Exterior Building Lighting 0 67 0 67Multi Integrated Building Design 61 0 0 61

Total 175 576 222 974

slide 33


Equipment-Related MeasuresEquipment-Related MeasuresCumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030Cumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030

End Use Measure Bundle New NR Retro TotalExt Lighting Street and Roadway Lighitng 8 42 0 51Ext Lighting Parking Lighting 1 38 0 38Ext Lighting LED Traffic Lights 0 0 0 0Ext Lighting Signage 0 5 0 5Process Municipal Sewage Treatment 0 0 27 27Process Municipal Water Supply 0 0 13 13Process Network PC Power Management 0 0 40 40Process Packaged Refrigeration Equipment 52 0 0 52Process Commercial Clothes Washers 0 0 0 0Process Cooking Equipment 0 0 0 0Process Office Equipment 0 0 0 0Process Computer Servers and IT 0 0 88 88Process DCV Restaurant Hood 0 0 4 4Process DCV Parking Garage 0 0 0 0Process Grocery Refrigeration Bundle 0 0 68 68Process Plug Load Sensor 0 0 0 0Process Premium Fume Hood 21 0 0 21Process Pre-Rinse Spray Wash 0 0 2 2

Total 82 85 241 408

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Achievable Savings Potential - Retrofit - Cumulative by 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

<0 20 40 60 80 100

120

140

160

180

200

Cost: TRC Net Levelized Cost in $2006 ($/MWh)

MW

a

DCV Parking Garage-Retro

DCV Restaurant Hood-Retro

Municipal Water Supply-Retro

Municipal Sewage Treatment-Retro

Signage-Retro

LED Traffic Lights-Retro

Parking Lighting-Retro

Street and Roadway Lighitng-Retro

Exterior Building Lighting-Retro

Computer Servers and IT-Retro

Network PC Power Management-Retro

Pre-Rinse Spray Wash-Retro

Plug Load Sensor-Retro

Lodging Measures-Retro

Grocery Refrigeration Bundle-Retro

Duct Sealing and Repair-Retro

Efficienct fans, pumps and drives-Retro

Demand Control Ventilation-Retro

Controls Commission Complex HVAC-Retro

Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair-Retro

Windows-Retro

Lighting Controls Interior-Retro

Lighting Power Density-Retro

slide 35


Achievable Savings Potential - Lost-Opportunity - Cumulative by 2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Cost: TRC Net Levelized Cost in $2006 ($/MWh)

MW

aSignage-NR

Parking Lighting-NR

Parking Lighting-New

Street and Roadw ay Lighitng-NR

Street and Roadw ay Lighitng-New

Exterior Building Lighting-NR

Exterior Building Lighting-New

Office Equipment-New

Cooking Equipment-New

Packaged Refrigeration Equipment-New

Exit Signs-NR

Premium Fume Hood-New

Lodging Measures-NR

Lodging Measures-New

Roof Insulation-NR

Efficienct fans, pumps and drives-NR

Efficienct fans, pumps and drives-New

Demand Control Ventilation-NR

Demand Control Ventilation-New

Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC-New

Evaporative Assist Cooling-NR

Evaporative Assist Cooling-New

Controls Commission Complex HVAC-New

Variable Speed Chiller-NR

Variable Speed Chiller-New

Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair-NR

Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair-New

Window s-NR

Window s-New

Premium HVAC Equipment-NR

Premium HVAC Equipment-New

ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes-NR

ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes-New

Lighting Controls Interior-NR

Lighting Controls Interior-New

Daylighting w ith Window s-NR

Daylighting w ith Window s-New

Daylighting w ith Skylights-New

Lighting Pow er Density-NR

Lighting Pow er Density-New

Integrated Building Design-New

slide 36


Measure Bundle End Use

Number of Measures in Bundle Measure Description New NR Retrofit Total

Lighting Power Density Lighting 54 Lamp, ballast and fixture improvements to lighting power density 51 354 38 443 Daylighting with Skylights Lighting 6 Skylights with lighting controls 16 - - 16 Daylighting with Windows Lighting 6 Perimeter daylighting controls 3 12 - 15 Lighting Controls Interior Lighting 6 Occupancy controls for areas not required by code such as open office, warehouse aisle, classrooms 6 65 8 79 Exit Signs Lighting 2 LED and electroluminescent "Exit" signs - 0 - 0 Premium HVAC Equipment HVAC 4 HVAC equipment more efficient than applicable code or standard practice 8 31 - 39 Variable Speed Chiller HVAC 2 Variable speed chillers 1 14 - 15 Controls Commission Complex HVAC HVAC 20 Commissioning on HVAC systems in buildings with complex HVAC systems 10 - 124 134 Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair HVAC 8 Suite of measures and control strategies for buildings served by package roof top HVAC units 4 8 16 29 Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC HVAC 2 Dedicated Outside Air or Underfloor Air distribution systems in buildings with complex HVAC systems 6 - - 6 Demand Control Ventilation HVAC 5 Fan control strategies, DCV and Fleet Strategy DOAS with heat recovery in simple HVAC systems 4 4 14 22 ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes HVAC 2 Electically Commutated Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes 3 9 - 12 Evaporative Assist Cooling HVAC 0 Evaporative Assist Cooling - - - - Windows HVAC 39 Windows and glazing more efficiecnt that code or standard practice 3 8 22 33 Roof Insulation HVAC 2 Add insulation during re-roofing - 3 - 3 Duct Sealing and Repair HVAC 0 Sealing and repair of ductwork in unconditioned spaces - - - - Efficienct fans, pumps and drives HVAC 0 Variable speed fans, pumps and drives, pump and fan system efficiencies and demand control - - - - Exterior Building Lighting Ext Lighting 4 Effiicient façade, walkway, area and decorative exterior lighting, such as LED - 67 - 67 Integrated Building Design Multi 13 Multiple measures applied in integrated design practice 61 - - 61 Street and Roadway Lighting Ext Lighting 2 Efficient street and roadway lighting, LED and induction 8 42 - 51 Parking Lighting Ext Lighting 2 Efficient parking lot and garage lighting and controls 1 38 - 38 LED Traffic Lights Ext Lighting 1 LED traffic signals - - - - Signage Ext Lighting 1 LED advertizing signs - 5 - 5 Municipal Sewage Treatment Process 10 Suite of measures for sewage treatment - - 27 27 Municipal Water Supply Process 5 Suite of measures for water supply systems - - 13 13 Network PC Power Management Process 1 Control of a networked computer's advanced energy management systems - - 40 40 Packaged Refrigeration Equipment Process 20 Efficient refrigerators and freezers, beverage merchandizers, ice makers and vending machines 52 - - 52 Commercial Clothes Washers Process 0 Clotheswashers more efficient than federal standard - - - - Cooking Equipment Process 0 Efficient cooking equipment such as hot food holders, grills, fryers and steam tables - - - - Office Equipment Process 2 Efficient Desktop PC and Efficient Monitor - - - - Computer Servers and IT Process 2 Consolidation & virtualization & upgrade of servers in embedded server rooms in buildings - - 88 88 DCV Restaurant Hood Process 1 Demand control ventilation systems for large restaurant hoods - - 4 4 DCV Parking Garage Process 1 Demand control ventilation systems for parking garages - - - - Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Process 12 Grocery store refrigeration measures - - 68 68 Plug Load Sensor Process 1 Occupancy controls for task lighting and other ancillary loads in offices - - - - Premium Fume Hood Process 1 Effiicient fume hoods in labs 21 - - 21 Pre-Rinse Spray Wash Process 1 Low-flow pre-rinse spray valves for restaurant kitchens, cafeterias, and food-serving - - 2 2

Total 238 258 662 462 1382

Technical Potential in MWa by Year 2029

slide 37


Belts

Compressed Air

Energy Project Management

Fans

Food Processing

Food Storage

Hi-Tech

Integrated Plant Energy Management

Lighting

Lumber & Wood Products

Material Handling

Motors

PaperPulp

Pumps

Transformers

Plant Energy Management

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Cross-Industry Systems Industry-Specific Process Whole Plant

Ac

hie

va

ble

MW

a in

20

29

Industrial BundlesIndustrial Bundles

slide 38


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140A

ch

iev

ab

le S

av

ing

s b

y 2

02

9 (

MW

a)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Sa

vin

gs

as

Pe

rce

nt

of

Ind

us

try

Ele

ctr

icit

y U

se

Savings MWa

Percent

Savings By IndustrySavings By Industry

slide 39


Achievable Retrofit Conservation Potential - Cumulative by 2029 Base Forecast - Industrial

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

<0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

>200


MW

a Industrial Supply CurveIndustrial Supply Curve

slide 40


Industrial MeasuresIndustrial Measures

Measure

Busbar Savings in

2029 in MWa

TRC Net Levelized

Cost Mode Measure

Busbar Savings in

2029 in MWa

TRC Net Levelized

Cost ModeAir Compressor Energy Management 16 25 Retrofit Food: Cooling and Storage 28 34 RetrofitAir Compressor Equipment1 7 38 Retrofit Food: Refrig Storage Tuneup 14 20 RetrofitAir Compressor Equipment2 - 9,999 Replace Metal: New Arc Furnace 0 (1,830) RetrofitAir Compressor Optimization 19 (5) Retrofit Mech Pulp: Refiner Replacement 4 27 RetrofitHighBay Lighting 1 Shift 4 30 Replace Mech Pulp: Premium Process 0 20 RetrofitHighBay Lighting 2 Shift 3 12 Replace Mech Pulp: Refiner Plate Improvement 0 34 RetrofitHighBay Lighting 3 Shift 23 3 Replace Kraft: Effluent Treatment System 1 1 RetrofitEfficient Lighting 1 Shift 4 (1) Replace Kraft: Efficient Agitator 9 2 ReplaceEfficient Lighting 2 Shift 3 (5) Replace Paper: Efficient Pulp Screen 1 16 RetrofitEfficient Lighting 3 Shift 24 (6) Replace Paper: Premium Fan 2 17 RetrofitLighting Controls 8 28 Replace Paper: Material Handling 1 98 ReplaceMotors: Rewind 20-50 HP 1 45 Replace Paper: Large Material Handling 2 147 ReplaceMotors: Rewind 51-100 HP 1 38 Replace Paper: Premium Control Large Material 5 57 ReplaceMotors: Rewind 101-200 HP 1 30 Replace Material Handling1 - 9,999 RetrofitEfficient Centrifugal Fan 3 15 Retrofit Material Handling2 7 65 ReplaceFan Energy Management 10 16 Retrofit Material Handling VFD1 - 9,999 RetrofitFan Equipment Upgrade 29 31 Retrofit Material Handling VFD2 27 35 ReplaceFan System Optimization 40 5 Retrofit Wood: Replace Pneumatic Conveyor 14 (64) ReplacePump Energy Management 11 16 Retrofit Panel: Hydraulic Press 1 19 ReplacePump Equipment Upgrade 32 35 Retrofit Cold Storage Retrofit 13 36 RetrofitPump System Optimization 26 (25) Retrofit Cold Storage Tuneup 9 20 RetrofitTransformers 48 7 Retrofit Fruit Storage Refer Retrofit 44 34 RetrofitSynchronous Belts 12 24 Retrofit CA Retrofit -- CO2 Scrub 2 39 RetrofitElec Chip Fab: Eliminate Exhaust 0 25 Retrofit CA Retrofit -- Membrane 2 59 RetrofitElec Chip Fab: Exhaust Injector 2 (73) Retrofit Fruit Storage Tuneup 14 26 RetrofitElec Chip Fab: Solidstate Chiller 5 (54) Retrofit Groc Dist Retrofit 3 42 RetrofitElec Chip Fab: Reduce Gas Pressure 0 (23) Retrofit Groc Dist Tuneup 4 22 RetrofitClean Room: Change Filter Strategy 1 (1) Retrofit Plant Energy Management 53 20 RetrofitClean Room: Clean Room HVAC 0 8 Retrofit Energy Project Management 104 36 RetrofitClean Room: Chiller Optimize 0 4 Retrofit Integrated Plant Energy Management 97 (9) Retrofit

Date post:	04-Jan-2016
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