Acid Rain, by David Newbery

5/20/2018 Acid Rain, by David Newbery

1/51

Centre for Economic Policy Research

Center for Economic Studies

Maison des Sciences de l Homme

Acid Rain

Author(s): David M. Newbery, Horst Siebert and John VickersSource: Economic Policy, Vol. 5, No. 11 (Oct., 1990), pp. 297-346Published by: Wileyon behalf of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, Center for EconomicStudies, and the Maison des Sciences de l'HommeStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1344480.

Accessed: 08/09/2014 12:37

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at.http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp

.

JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range ofcontent in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms

of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].

.

Wiley, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Center for Economic Studies,Maison des Sciences de l'Hommeare collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access toEconomic Policy.

http://www.jstor.org

This content downloaded from 193.54.67.93 on Mon, 8 Sep 2014 12:37:20 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=blackhttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=ceprhttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=ceshttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=ceshttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=mshhttp://www.jstor.org/stable/1344480?origin=JSTOR-pdfhttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/stable/1344480?origin=JSTOR-pdfhttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=mshhttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=ceshttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=ceshttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=ceprhttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=black


2/51

Economic

olicy

October 990

Printed n Great

Britain

Acidrain

David

Newbery

Summary

Acid rain

is

not new

phenomenon,

ut nvironmental

wareness

has

grown

apidly

ver

he astdecade.

Much

data has been ollected

and the

ransmission

rocess

s

better

nderstood.

olicy-makers

n

Europe

have et hemselveshe

bjectivef uniform

0%

reduction

in

national

missions

f

ulphur

ioxide nd a

freeze

n

emissions

of

nitrogen

xides.

Whereas

imple

conomic

rinciples

ave

nformed

uch

f

the

policy ebaten theUS, the ame has notbeen rue n Europe.A

reduction

f

emissions

hich

s

uniform

cross ountriess

likely

o

be

highly

nefficient:

ather,

articular

missions

hould

e

curtailed

until the

marginal

ost

f

further

batement

quals

the

marginal

benefit

s measured

y

he

marginal amage hereby

voided.Within

and across

countries,

marginal

batement osts

nd,

a

fortiori,

marginaldamagefrom

cid rain

varygreatly.

hus

an

efficient

emission-reduction

rogramme

nvolves

unequal

reductions

f

emissionscross ountriesnd activities. hepaperoffersalcula-

tions

f

the tructure

f

an

efficient

rogramme,

nd

discusses ow

we can bestmakeuse

of

marketsnd

prices

odecentralize

s

many

decisions

s

possible.

http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp


3/51

Acid rain

David

M.

Newbery

Department

f

Applied

Economics,

Cambridge

nd CEPR

1. Introduction

Air

pollution

is not a new

phenomenon-Londoners

in the twelfth

century omplained

about the noxious

fumes

from

burning

sea

coal,

and

the

corrosive ffects

f

sulphur

dioxide

(SO2)

dissolved

n rain have

been

well

understood

for

a

least a

century.

But the focus of concern

constantly

hifts. n Britain moke

AbatementActs date

from1853-56.

The landmark Clean

Air Act of 1956

was

primarily

response

to the

health hazards associatedwiththe

unregulated

burning

of coal. An

estimated

4,000

people

died

in

the

great

London

smog

of

December

1952.

The US

has also been concerned

with

reducing

coal

pollution,

but

was

also active

n

reducing

automobile

pollution

from

quite

early

on. Here

the

impetus

was

the

deteriorating

ir

quality

n

urban areas

like Los

Angeles

and

Washington

DC,

where

photochemical

mog

led

to

high

levels

of

ozone,

traced

to

exhaust

emissions

of

hydrocarbons

and

nitrogen

xides

NOx).

California ed

the

way

n

ntroducing ighter

emissions controls. n Europe, the impetusforenvironmental olicy

developed

because

acid rain

from

the

SO2

and

NOx

emissions

from

the

burning

of

coal

and

oil

-

is no

respecter

of national boundaries.

Each

locality

and

country

discovered

that

some

of the

immediately

harmful ffects

f

burning

oal

could be avoided

by building

tall chim-

neys,

but this

merelydispersed

the

pollutants

lsewhere,

often across

great

distances

to other

countries.

These countries

could

not

directly

controlthe

deposition

of

acid

rain,

and could

instead

only complain

I I

Research

support

from

he

UK Economic

and Social Research

Council's

grant

Privatisation

nd

Reregulation

f

he

Network

ndustriess

gratefullycknowledged.

am indebted

to

Margaret

Clark

for

assistance

with the literature

earch,

to Michael Hannaman

for

bringing

o

my

notice

the

paper

by

Maler

(1989),

to R.

G.

Derwent of Harwell

for his

extremely horough

and

helpful

scientific

omments,

nd

to David

Pearce,

John

Vickers nd

David

Begg

for careful comments.

None

of these s to

he

held

responsible

for

the

interpretations

have chosen.



4/51

Acid rain

299

and

negotiate

for

ome

coordinated

olution

o

the

perceived

problem.

Different ountries

esponded

to different acets

f the

pollutionprob-

lem. The

Scandinavian countries

were

troubled

by

the death and

disap-

pearance

of fishfrom akes and rivers.Germans worried about forest

die-back.Glasnost evealedthe full

xtent

f

theenvironmental

isasters

in Eastern

Europe,

and

provided

the

focus

for

local

hostility

o the

environmental

nsensitivity

f central

planning.

Environmental wareness has

grown rapidly

over

the

past

decade,

and with

t

the

growing

realization hat we live

on

a

rather mall and

fragileplanet.

The

green

movementhas

had to work hard

to

capture

the attention nd

imagination

f the

public

and

politicians,

nd has had

to resort o emotionalarguments o getitsmessageacross.There is no

doubt

that the

hidden

environmental osts

of

current

echnologymay

be

high,

ven

life-threatening,

ut t

s

also clear

from ecent

xperience

that

the costs of

carelesslydesigned

environmental

egulation

an also

be

high.

As

economists,

we

have a

duty

to

argue

for

cost-effective

environmental

olicies.

Inefficient

olicies

not

only

achieve

less than

they

should,

but

they

also run the

risk of

alienating taxpayers

and

consumers

who

ultimately ay

for the

regulation

nd

may

undermine

the

aims of

the

environmental

movement.

conomists,

with

honourable

exceptions,have tended to ignoreenvironmental conomicsbecause it

seems

to raise few

new

ideas.

Most of the useful

techniques

have been

the stuff f

undergraduate

welfare conomics ince

Pigou's

day.

Though

each

generation

adds to

the stock of

knowledge

and

techniques,

the

subject

has not been at the theoretical

utting dge

for

ome time.This

might

ot

have mattered

f

conomists ad been

supplied

with ccessible

facts

with

whichto clothe

the

theory

nd to

bring

the

policy

ssues nto

sharp

perspective.

But these factsare

largely

produced by

scientists

unfamiliar

with

he economic

tyle

f

argument,

nd often nconcerned

with conomic costs nd benefits. here has been too little ommunica-

tion between the

disciplines.

It is

interesting

o

compare

the situation

n the US. The

style

of

regulation

exemplifiedby

the Environmental rotection

Agency,

nd

the

separation

of

legislative

nd executive

power,

means that

environ-

mental

egislation

has to be

argued

in a

quasi-judicial

way

before

being

enacted,

and

economistshave

been

centrally

nvolved n the

ensuing

debates

not

necessarily

uccessfully.

s a resultof

having

to make a

quantified

case in

public,

economists have

investigated

he

scientific

evidence,

have conducted

empirical nquiries,

and have identified

he

gaps

in

our

knowledge.

Environmental conomics

has received a

con-

siderable

mpetus

nd a

solid

body

of

theory

nd

evidence on which

o

build.

We in

Europe lag

behind,

though

there

are

signs

that

the times

are

changing.



5/51

This

contribution

eals with

small

part

of the

environmental

ebate,

that

oncerned

with

cid

rain.

t

is

an

important

opic

not as

important

as

the

greenhouse

effect,

which s

global

in

scale,

and

probably

not

as

important

s traffic

ongestion,

which is a domestic matterfor each

country.

Nevertheless,

ubstantial

ums of

money

have been

spent

and

are now

being

committed n an

attempt

o

alleviate

he

problem

of

acid

rain. The

thrust

of this

paper

is

that this

programme

as

currently

interpreted

s

flawed,

nnecessarily xpensive,

nd

if t

succeeds,

t

runs

the risk

of

high political

cost.

Relatively imple

economic

principles

applied

to the

appropriate

facts

ught

to

be able to

achieve

the

same

environmental

enefits t

substantially

ower

cost,

nd

in

a more

decen-

tralized nd less politically roblematicway.

I

make no

apologies

for

the

high

ratio of

factsto

theory

n

what

follows.

The

environmental ebate

has been

long

on

emotional

argu-

ment and

shorton

substance

for too

long.

I

am not an

expert

n this

field,

nd

have

had to

rely

on

secondary

ources for the

data. On the

crucial

ssue of

quantifying

he

benefits f

reducing

acid rain

I have

not

been

able to

find

dequate

evidence

and so

cannot

finally

uantify

the

efficient

olicy.

But I

have

found

enough

evidence to cast

consider-

able

doubt about

the

priorities

or

abatement,

nd

to

suggest

where

research efforthould be concentrated. everal findings urpriseme.

Fish death

from

cid rain

is

sad,

but

economically

unimportant.

ree

death

may

be far

more

important,

hough

there

are

worrying

ncer-

tainties

bout the

cause and

cure of

this

problem.

Health

problems

associated

with

oal

emissions,

articularly

he

combination

f

SO2

and

particulates

smoke

particles)

are

potentially

f

the first

mportance,

whereas

those

associated with

NOx

and ozone

seem

trivial.

2. Acid rain and its effects

In

order

to

understand the

acid

rain

problem

it

is

necessary

first o

describe

the

causes

and

consequences

of

acid rain.

Considerable scien-

tific

esearch

over

the

past

decade has

illuminated his

phenomenon,

though

uncertainties

emain.

The

next

step

is to

identify

he

sources

and

measure

the

amounts of

pollutant

eleased,

and their

destination.

What s it

that

causes

the

damage,

where

does the main

damage

occur,

and what

are

economically

he

most

expensive

consequences

of

acid

rain?

Finally,

one

needs

to

determine the

techniques

available

for

reducing

emissions, nd the costsof

abatement,

n order to

identify

cost-effective

batement

policies.

This

last

step

is

usually ignored

by

ecologists

nd

politicians,

who

are

content

once

they

have

found

ways

of

reducing

acid rain

to

press

for

the

maximum

politically?)

easible

degree

of

abatement.

This section

ddresses

each

issue

in

turn.

300

David

Newbery



6/51

2.1.

Defining

acid

rain

Acid

rain s

normally

nderstood o include the

deposition

of

the

acidic

combustion

productssulphurdioxide, SO2,

various

nitrogenoxides,

NOx,

and

chloride,

Cl-,

either s

dry

gases

or

particles,

r

as

wet

deposits

in

rain, now,

sleet,

hail,

mistor

fog.

These

pollutants

sually

undergo

a

seriesof chemical

ransformationsnto

sulphuric

cid,

nitric cid

and

hydrochloric

cid. These acids

affect he

environment,

oth

directly

and

indirectly

n

causing

the release of further

armful hemicals uch

as aluminium.Acid rain can

be

measured

n a

variety

f

ways

in terms

of

tonnesof the

original

gases

released,

or

tonnes

of

elemental

ulphur,

or in terms of the

acidity

of the

rainfall,run-off,

treams or lakes.

Aciditys measuredin pH unitson a logarithmiccale.' As thescale is

logarithmic,

ainfall

with a

pH

of 5

is

10

times as acid as that with

pH

of 6.

Unpolluted

rain

s

slightly

cidic

from

issolved

arbon dioxide

and has a

pH

of about 5.6. Sea

water s

naturally

lkaline,

having pH

of 8.3.

Most

SO2

comes

from

arge

combustion

plants-thus

in

1987,

85%

came

from

arge

combustion

plants,

nd

73%

from

power

stations.Of

UK emissions

rom ossil

uel

combustion,

9%

came

from

oal

combus-

tion and

12%

fromfuel oil.2

Sulphur

dioxide

pollutes

he environment

throughtwo different outes.Much of the gas fallsto earthwithin

300 km of the

source

in

its

dry

form,

nd this

process

s described as

dry

deposition. Long-range transport

ccurs

because

SO2

is

oxidized

to

sulphateparticles,

which re not

readilydeposited

n

dry

form.

Their

main removal s

by scavenging

n

rain-making rocesses

s wet

deposi-

tion,

which

may

occur

1,000-2,000

km from he

source.

Wet

deposition

can be

reported

n two

ways by

ts

ntensity

nd cumulative

eposition.

Intensity

s shown

by

the

maps

of the

average acidity

f

precipitation

(in

pH),

and

cumulative

depositionby

wet

deposited acidity

n

gramsof

hydrogen

ons

per

square

metre

per year. Deposited

acidity

s the

product

of the

acidity

of the rainfall nd

the

amount

of rain wetter

areas

in

the west

may

have more

acid

deposited

even

though

the

precipitation

s less

acidic.

2.2.

Measuring

acid

rain

The

European

Monitoring

nd Evaluation

Programme

EMEP)

was set

up

in 1978 to monitor he movement f

pollutants,

nd

to determine

I I

pH

is defined as the

negative

ogarithm

f

the

hydrogen

on

(H+)

concentration,

aving

the

perverse

effect

hat lower numbers

correspond

to

higher

acidity.

Thus

0

is

most

acid,

7 is

neutral

and

14 most alkaline.

Lemon

juice

has a

pH

of

2,

milk of

magnesia

10.5.

2

UK data are

taken from he

Digest f

Environmentalrotection

nd Water

tatistics,988,

Depart-

ment of the

Environment).

igures

after 1970 are based

on revisedemissionfactors escribed

therein.

Acid

rain

301



7/51

where the

deposition

of

pollutants

eleased fromeach source

occurs.

Until

recently

he

only

pollutant

rackedwas

SO2,

though

now

NOx

is

also

monitored.The surface

f

Europe

is divided nto

squares

with

gridlines 150 km

apart.

There are about

720

grid

ineintersectionsn land

and

about

100

monitoring

iteswhich re used in the EMEP model

and

these

are

termed

rrival

points.

Using

detailed

meteorological

nforma-

tion,

the track

of air

which

arrived

at

each of the

820

or

so

points

s

followed

backwards

n

time for96

hours. An air

parcel

is then studied

forwards

n

time

as

it

follows

each back-track

precisely,

picking

up

pollution

and

depositing pollution

until it

arrives back at its arrival

point.

This whole

procedure

for

each of

the

820

points

s

repeated

at

six-hourlyntervals 65 daysof theyear.The model alsokeepsa record

of the

pollution produced by

each

country.

Not all the

deposition

can

be tracedback

to an

identified

ource,

s

meteorological

ata is accurate

enough

to track

back

for

only

96

hours. Table

1

gives

a

subset of the

basic data

from

this

exercise for

1987,

and

is

to

be read

as

follows.3

Looking

along

the row

against

GB the table showsthat

Britainreceived

14,000

tonnes of

sulphur4

i.e.

about

27,000

tonnes

SO2)

from

France,

11,000

tonnes

from

West

Germany

DE)

and

571,000

tonnes from

domestic

sources.

Looking

down the

column headed GB the

Table

shows that Britain emitted1,271,000 tonnes of sulphurwhose final

destination

could be

established,

and of this

43,000

tonnes fell on

France.

45,000

tonnes on

Germany

and

437,000

tonnes

on

North

Africa within the

monitoring

rea

(demonstrating ust

how

far the

plume

can

travel).

The

large

numberson the

diagonal

of Table 1 showshow

important

domestic sources of

pollution

are. The

large off-diagonal

numbers

indicatewhere the

major mpacts

f

one

country

n another

occur,

nd

it

is

striking

hat

they

primarily

ccur in

East

Europe,

confirming

he

viewthat central

planning

has been an environmental isasterfor ts

participants.

Table

2

presents

the

information rom the

same

programme

n

a

different

ay.

The first wo

columns

give

totalemissions

not

ust

those

whose final

destination an

be

identified)

or the

base

year

1980 and

the most

recent

year

available,

n

order of

magnitude.

This allows an

estimateof the

extent to

which

countries have succeeded in

moving

towards

he

target

30%

reduction

now

widely ccepted.

The next two

columnsgive depositionswithin he country, nd an estimateof the

I

1

3

The

fullertable is

given

in

the

Appendix

and is the

source of

calculations

reported

below.

Using

the

abbreviated able

leads to considerable

biases in

estimating

otal

damage,

and the

complete

table should be used for

all

calculations.

4

To

convert

ulphur

to

sulphur

dioxide,

multiply y

1.9,

or

roughly

double the numbers.

302

David

Newbery



8/51

Table

1.

Origins

of

sulphur deposition

in

Europe

(thousand

tonnes

a

year)

Emitters

CS

FR DD DE

BL HU

IT PL ES

SC

Czechoslovakia

CS

France

FR

GDR

DD

West

Germany

DE

Benelux

BL

Hungary

HU

Italy

IT

Poland

PL

Spain

ES

Scandinavia

SC

USSR*

SU

Britain GB

Other

Europe

OE

N. Africa

NA

Sum

Error

385

11

128

28

5

45 10 95

1

19

332

41 40 28

5

21

15 65

84

14

725

61

11 2

2

32

1

47

69 163 330

44

3 13 23

6

4 32

15 51

102

0 0

4

2

31

3

16 6

1 190

12

25

0

13

21

15

8 2

11 353

14

10

145

15

310 47 10

40 10 790

1

2

11 5

3 1 2 2

3

523

17 5

48

18 6

4

2

44 0

107

10

167

36 8 84

13

337

1

5 14 15 11 8 0 1 3 2

95

40

97 49 8

141

136

101

29

105

136 253

131

71 64 182

194 210

1,064

721

2,005

823

322

594

759

1,685

856

5

8

7

4 17

3 2

5 5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

59

8

0

3

28

107

8

Source:

Acid

Magazine,

Sept.

1989,

fromEMEP

data.

Notes:

Sulphur

dioxide

figures

will be

about

twice s

large.

*

European part

of

USSR within

EMEP area

of

calculation.

UI

=

unattributable

o

any

country, lus

a small

amount

from N. Africa.

Receivers



9/51

Table 2.

Sulphur

emissions

(thousand

tonnes

or

%)

Emissions

Change

Depositions

1980

1987

%

1980

1987

USSR* 6,400 5,100 -20 5,101 3,584

GDR

2,500

2,500

0 963

979

Poland

2,050 2,270

+10

1,443 1,492

UK

2,335

1,840

-21

803

702

Spain

1,625

1,581

-3

670

674

Czechoslovakia

1,550

1,450

-6 818

765

Italy

1,900 1,252

-34

916 562

German

Fed

Rep

1,600

1,022

-36

1,083

821

France

1,779

923

-48

1,160

760

Hungary

817

710

-13

416

337

Yugoslavia

588

588

0

662

497

Bulgaria

517

570

+9

293

235

Belgium 400 244 -39 162 121

Greece 200

180

-10

150

119

Turkey

138

177

+22

209

210

Finland 292

162

-44

273 210

Denmark

219

155

-13

110

83

Netherlands

244

141

-42

175

139

Portugal

133

116

-13

83

83

Sweden

232

116

-50

333

307

Romania

100

100

0 405

330

Ireland

110

84

-24

66

68

Austria

177

75

-58 282

207

Norway 70 50 -29 199 194

Switzerland

63

31

-51 121

70

Total

26,078

21,471

-18

20,484

16,695

Source: Acid

Magazine,

Sept.

1989,

from

EMEP data.

Notes:

Sulphur

dioxide

figures

will be

twiceas

large.

Countries

ordered

by

1987 emissio

*

European

part

of USSR

within

EMEP

area

of

calculation.

Figures

for emissions

n 1987

based

on

interpolation

xcept

for

USSR,

UK,

Czechoslova



10/51

fraction

f

depositions

which can be

traced

back

to

domestic

sources

(using

Table 1

data).

This

confirms

he

importance

of

the

diagonal

element n

Table

1,

and

the

mportance

f

domestic

ourcesofpollution.

The

final olumn

gives

the

ratio of

exports

of

SO2

to

imports.

As total

depositions

n

1987

are

only

78%

of

total

emissions,

his

ratio can

be

expected

to

be

significantly

bove

unity

on

average.

The

smaller t

is,

the more

the

country

s

sinned

against,

han

sinner.

Britain

tands out

as

the

greatest

inneron

this

criterion,

nd the

Scandinavian

countries

as those

most

sinned

against.

Only part

of

total

SO2

emissions

ome from

man-made

ources;

other

important

ources

nclude

volcanoes,

biological

decay

and

forest

fires.

These natural ourcesmight ccount for80-290 mn.tonnesperannum

worldwide,

compared

to

total

man-made

emissions of

75-100

mn.

tonnes.

The levels

and

mechanisms

responsible

for

natural

emissions

are

imperfectly

nderstood,

but

they

may play

an

important

ole in

the

European

acid rain

problem.

The

information

enerated

by

EMEP

is

remarkably

seful,

not

only

in

quantifying

he level

of

pollution,

but also in

identifying

fficient

and feasible

batement

policies.

The

information

n

deposition

can

be

used to draw

maps

showing

the

average acidity

of

precipitation

ver

Europe using contour ines of increasing evels of acidity.Such maps

show

that

n

1987 most

of

Yorkshire

nd the

East

Midlands had

precipi-

tation f

average

acidity

elow

pH

4.3,

(i.e.

five

imes

s acid

as

'normal'

rain

with

pH

of

5.0)

whereas

Wales,

South-west

ngland

and the

west

coast of

Scotland

was

above

4.6,

and so less

acid.

Substantial

reas

north

of

a line

joining

the Wash

and

Liverpool

received

more

than

0.05

gm

H+

per

square

metre

y

wet

deposition

i.e.

0.5

kg/hectare

r

50

kg/km2),

with

Wessex,

East

Wales,

Northern

reland

and

North-east

cotland

receiving

ess

than

0.02

gm.

Most

of the

sulphurdeposition

n

the

UK

occurs

through dry

deposition

as

SO2,

particularly

n the southand

eastof

the

country.

n

the north

nd

west

where

rainfall s

more

frequent

and

intense,

wet

deposition

f

SO2

and

sulphate

particles

ecomes

more

significant.

In

a

European

context,

he

lines of

equal

rainfall

cidity

how

the

highest

concentrations

n

Germany

and

Poland,

with

pH

below

4.1,

with

most of

Southern

France,

almost all

Italy,

Spain,

Portugal,

West

Yugoslavia

and

West

Greece

having pH

greater

han 4.9

(i.e.

less

acid

thanany partofthe UK and Ireland).

The EMEP

tables can

also be

used to throw

ight

on

the

political

economy

of

pollution

control.

Consider first

he column

in

Table

2

which

gives

the

fraction f

total

deposition

which can

be

attributed o

domestic

ources.The

unweighted verage

of

these

figures

s

41%

(with

a

standarddeviation f

21%).

The

weighted

verage

heavily

nfluenced

Acidrain

305



11/51

by

the

larger

countries,

specially

he

USSR, which,

by

their

ize,

have

higher

domestic

absorption)

s

52%.

The

weighted

average

domestic

absorption

s a fraction

f

total

production

s

33%,

and

the

unweighted

average

s 29%

(with

standarddeviation f

only

5%). What thismeans

is

that the

average

unilateral

cost of

reducing

a tonne of

domestic

deposition

s

equal

to

the

cost of

reducing

domestic

missions

by

about

3

tonnes.

The ratio of total

European

depositions

to total

European

emissions

s

66%,

so that f

all

European

countries

cted

in

concert,

he

cost

of

reducing depositions

by

1 tonne

would

be

only

half as

great.

Put another

way,

many

countries

ould

reduce

depositions

within heir

borders

by

about

50%,

but at twice he cost

per

tonne

reduced as

if all

countries cted together.There are thusconsiderablebenefits o coor-

dinated

action,

but these

should

not be dramatized

SO2

pollution

s

farfrom

pure

public

good

at

the

country

evel,

nd

self

nterest

ught

to

go

a

considerable

way

towards

lleviating

he

problem.

The next

question

one can ask of

the EMEP data

is whether

here

are

significant pportunities

or

bilateral

bargaining

between

pairs

of

countries ver

pollution

evels. One

way

to

identify

uch

opportunities

is to

ook

for

nstanceswhere

the volume of

bilateral

pollution

xchange

is

large

relative o total

depositions,

nd where trade

is

bilateralrather

thanunilateral.The volume can be measuredbyone-half xportsplus

imports,

nd bilateralism an be

measured

by

the

difference

etween

exports

and

imports.

Table

Al of

the

Appendix

gives

the

net

ex-

ports

of

each

country

nd can be used to

identify

he extentof

bilater-

alism.

The

following

ountry

pairs

have a difference etween these

two measures

of

5%

of

depositions

or

less for

the

smallerof the

part-

ners:

Czechoslovakia-GDR;

Czechoslovakia-Hungary;

zechoslovakia-

Poland;

GDR-Poland;

Poland-Hungary;

USSR-Czechoslovakia;

USSR-

GDR;

USSR-Hungary;

USSR-Poland.

It is

notable that

significant

balanced exchange of pollutionis confined to Eastern Europe, and

does not affect

ny

of the other countries dentified

n

Table

2.

(It

may

be substantial

for

smaller countries

as a

proportion

of their

deposition.)

Another

possiblequestion

to

ask

s which

pairs

of

countries

have

large

net

tradebalances

n

pollution

which

might

ead to financial

egotiations

over

pollution

evels.

The

following

ountrieshave net

imports

from

another

country

which re

greater

han

5%

of total

depositions:

Poland

from

GDR

(19%);

Denmark from

GDR

(12%);

Scandinavia fromGDR

(10%);

Scandinavia from Poland

(9%);

USSR from Poland

(9%);

Czechoslovakia from

GDR

(6%);

Scandinavia from USSR

(5%).

Scan-

dinavia thus contains

he

only

West

European

countries

whichreceive

large

net

mports

rom

ingle

ountries otherwise

t s the

Easternbloc

countries hat stand

out as

large

net

importers

rom

ach other.

306

David

Newbery



12/51

Table 3.

Emissions

per

head

(kilogramsper

head

per year)

SO2 NO,

1980 1985 1980 1985

Austria 47 18

29

28

Czechoslovakia

202

203

78 73

France 65 31 34

29

Germany

Fed

Rep

52

43 49

49

Greece 83 73 13 15

Ireland

63

39

21

19

Netherlands 28

25

35

34

Poland

115

116

5 18

Spain

87 75

21 24

Sweden 64 33 38 37

Switzerland 19 15

31 33

UK 85 65

35 33

Canada

193 150

72 72

US

102

90

90 83

Averages:

All 86 70 39 39

Europe

76

61

32 32

West

Europe

59

42

31 30

Source:

UNECE

(1987)

abatement.

National

trategies

nd

policies

or

ir

pollution

Note:

Averages

are

unweighted.

Nitrogen

oxide emissions.

Nitrogen

xide,

or

NOx,

emissions re measured

in

terms f tonnes

nitrogen

dioxide

equivalent,

NO2.

Table 3

gives per

capita

emission

levels for both

SO2

and

NOx

for the

major

member

countries f

the UN Economic Commission

for

Europe

Conventionon

Long-range Transboundary

Air Pollution. t shows

that

UK levels are

not

high

n

comparison

with

urope

and

NorthAmerica

aken

ogether,

but are ratherhigher hanthe WestEuropean countries n thesample.

The table

shows that

whereas

SO2

has decreased

between 1980 and

1985,

NOx

has if

anything

ncreased.

Table

4

gives

further nformation

bout

NOx

for

1985. The first

column shows that

mobile sourcescontribute bout one-half f

all

NOx

emissions

in

Western

Europe

(actually

OECD

Europe),

though

the

range

is

from

28%

in

Eire

to

84%

in

Norway.

Much

of

the rest

comes

from

arge

combustion

plants-thus

in

Britain

35%

of the

total came

from

power

stations.

The next

column shows total emissions

of

NOx

frommobile and

stationary

ources n relation ototal

energy

use.

The coefficient

f

variation

CV)

is

34%,

showing

hat missions

orrelate

quite closely

with

energy

consumption,

but

there are

important

ari-

ations

n

the

degree

to which

energy

use causes

NOx

pollution.

Britain

does

poorly by

this

score,

almost as

badly

as

Portugal

and

Greece.

307

cid

rain



13/51

Table

4.

NO,

emissions

frommobile

and other

sources

Ratio

of total

NOx

to

Ratioof mobileNOx to

Mobile

NOx

energy

(%

of

total)

consumption

GDP car

use petrol road fuel

Country

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4) (5)

(6)

Austria

68

10.1 1.27

3.76

61 37

Belgium

55 9.0

0.84

2.73

44 22

Denmark

34 15.9

1.04

2.48

61 35

Finland

58 14.8

1.80

7.62

86 47

France

66 13.1 1.29

2.81

62

38

Germany

59 14.6

1.54 3.73

70

46

Greece 63 18.6 3.35 4.36 75 44

Ireland 28 10.7 1.08

22

14

Italy

51

14.8

1.06

2.03

70 34

Luxembourg

64 6.9

2.32

5.61 45

28

Netherlands

60

10.5

1.53

3.27

95

56

Norway

84

12.3 2.27

9.65

113 81

Portugal

38

19.6 3.38 4.13

123

54

Spain

46 18.5

1.49 4.50

67 36

Sweden

68

9.2

1.48 3.26 52

37

Switzerland

74 11.1

0.92

3.04

49 41

UK

45 16.4 1.65 2.96

44

32

Europe 49 14.1 1.42 3.15 63 39

SD

unweighted

14

4.76 0.83

2.01

25 14

CV

0.29

0.34

0.58 0.63

0.40 0.37

Sources: UNECE

(1987)

and

OECD

(1987).

Data for

1985-86.

Notes:

(2)

shows

kg

of

NOx

per

tonne of

oil

equivalent

of

energy

onsumption

nd

(3)

per

unit

of GDP.

(4)

shows

gm

of

NOx

per

km driven

by

cars.

(5)

and

(6)

show

kg

of

NO,

per

kg

of

petrol

nd

kg

of total road

transport

uel. SD is standard

deviation

nd

CV coefficient

f variation.

(Figures

for

Luxembourg

seem rather

ow and

may

be

explained

by

some

energy

ales,

especially

f

transport

uel,

being

consumed

abroad.)

Column

(3)

shows

mobile

emissions

f

NO,

per

unit

of

GDP

(which

has

a lower CV

than

total

emissions

per

unit

of

GDP).

Column

(4)

gives

mobile emissions

n

gm

NO2

per

km

driven

by

cars.

White

1982,

Table

2)

shows that f there

were

no emissions

regulations,

hen

forthe

US

64%

of total

NOx

emissions

would come

from

ars,

and

the

balance

of

36% from rucks.Uncontrolled missions re 5.44 gm/km orcars, nd

38.6gm/km

from

heavy

diesel

trucks.

The

expected

uncontrolled

emissions

per

km driven

by

cars

alone

might

herefore

e

8.5

gm/km

(i.e.

5.44/0.64)

f

the

proportion

f car

km

n

total

vehicle

km were the

same as the US.

The

European

average

is 3.15

or

only

37%

of

that

predicted

for uncontrolled

missions.

Perhaps

more

impressive,

f the

308

David

Newbery



14/51

total emissionsfrom ll mobile sources

are

attributed

ntirely

o

cars,

then

the

average

achieved is about as

good

as those achieved

in

the US

by

cars

of

later than 1976 model

year

White,

1982,

Table

10).

The last

twocolumns relate mobile emissions o two

transport

uels.Column

(5)

gives

mobile emissions n

kg

per

tonne of

gasoline.

The finalcolumn

gives

total

mobile emissions

divided

by

total fuel consumed

in

the

transport

ector,

and thus accounts

for

diesel

emissions,

which are

potentially uite

serious.

Nitrogen

xides also come fromnatural

s well as man-made ources.

Again

estimates

re

very mprecise,

but natural sources

may

account

for

20-90

mn.

tonnes

compared

to estimated otalman-made

emissions

of about 90 mn. tonnes. One might herefore rgue thatperhaps only

half the

total

acid rain

emissions re

man-made,

but

whereas

natural

emissionsare

worldwide,

man-made sources are

concentrated

n the

northern

hemisphere,

nd

specifically

n

Europe

and North America.

2.3.

Assessing

the

damage

caused

by

acid rain

Acid rain has

ecological consequences

in that

t

affects he

soil,

vegeta-

tion,

specially

orests,

akes

and

hence

fish).

t causes

economic

damage

to man-made structuresbuildings,fabrics,metals),and it can affect

human health.

The

ecologicalconsequences

re

complex

nd still

ubject

to scientific

ncertainty

nd hence

dispute.

Soils

vary widely

n their

ability

o

buffer

i.e. neutralize)

cid

rain,

and natural

processes

add

to

the

man-made sources of acid rain. Recent work undertaken for the

UNECE

Convention on

Long-range Transboundary

Air Pollution5

attempts

o establish ritical oads for various kinds of

soils,

which,

f

exceeded,

would mean that he oilcould no

longer

neutralize dditional

acid rain

depositions.

Many

sensitive reas

especially

n

Scandinavia

experience

both

high

rates of

deposition

and soils for which critical

loads are

low.

The effects f

acid

runoff n

lakes have been

intensively

tudied in

Scandinavia and the UK

(and

doubtless

elsewhere).

One of the main

mechanisms

eading

to

the

decline

in fish

stocks is the

release

of

aluminium aused

by

acidification,

ather han the direct

ffects

f

acid

(see

e.g.

Environmental

Resources,

Limited,

1983).

Palaeoecological

studies

of core

samples

can traceback

acidity

evels nto

the

distant

ast

and show substantialfalls in pH in many lakes after the industrial

revolution.

Thus

Battarbee

et

al.

(1988)

analysed

lake acidification n

sensitive reas

in the

UK and

found

thatbefore 1850

most akes

studied

I

I

5

Reported

n Acid

News,

No

3,

October 1988.

Acid rain

309



15/51

had

pH

levels of

about

6.0,

but

that ince

then

pH

values had declined

by

0.5-1.5,

(i.e.

acidity

had

increased

by

between

3

and

30

times)

depending

on

deposition

rates and

bufferingapacities.

Other

studies

show

similar

trends,

and also show

that

lake

acidification

may

be

reversed

even

if

temporarily) y

the addition of ime either o

the

ake

or the rivers

n the

catchment rea.

This

is

expensive,

s

about 5

g/m3

of

bicarbonate

usually

n the formof

limestone)

re

required

to raise

the

pH

from

4.5 to

6.5,

and

it

does not

by

itself estore

he

lake

to

its

original

condition

restockingmay

also be

required.

(See

e.g.

Dudley

et

al., 1985; Britt,

1986.)

One

implication

whichdoes

not

eem

to

have been

adequatelyempha-

sized is thatacid rain is a stockpollutant s well as a flowpollutant.

That

is,

part

of the final

damage

caused

will

depend

on stocksof

acid

in

the

environment,

ot

just

the rate at which acid rain is

deposited.

Even

if

the environment

s

capable

of

neutralizing

r

disposing

of some

of the

acid each

year,

f inflows

xceed this

rate of

disposal,

then the

stockof

acid will

ncrease.

In

the UK it is

believed

that current

evels

of soil acidification re a

legacy

of

the

Industrial

Revolution,

nd that

water

quality

will

not be

restoreduntilthe soil recovers.This

recovery

is a slow

process

nd

relatively

nsensitive o near-term atesof emission

reduction, equiring imingforrapid recovery.6 his maygo someway

to

explaining

he

paradoxical

relationship

etween

decreasing

evels of

SO2

emissions n the one

hand,

and

apparently eteriorating cological

conditions

n the other.On

the other

hand,

Battarbee

et

l.

(1988)

note

that acid

deposition

has been

declining

n

Scotland

over

the

past

15

years,

and that

the

uppermost

sediments are

already recording

an

improvement,

hich

uggests possibly

wift

mprovement

f

deposition

levelscould be

further educed. The

speed

of

response

will

presumably

depend

on the

ecologicalcircumstances,

ut

may implyhigh

rates of

'depreciation'

ofacid stock evels.

Lake and fish

damage appears

quite

well

understood

compared

to

the

damage

suffered

y

trees.The

problem

was

highlighted

n

Germany

in the

early

1980s,

and shown to occur

elsewhere. Forest

damage

has

been attributed

o acid

rain,

weather

changes

and

droughts,

he

age

of

trees,

fragility

f

soils at

high

altitudes,

nd

inappropriate

forest

management.

Ozone

attack

appears

to

be

important,

nd

may

have

synergistic

nteractions

with

acid

rain

(Environmental

Resources

Limited,1983). Even if theexactproportion fdamage attributableo

acid rain s not

known,

here

seems

widespread agreement

hatreduc-

tions

in acid rain would be beneficial o

forests. imilar

uncertainty

pervades

the

study

f

crop damage, though

again

ozone

appears

to be

I

1

6

Personal

communication

romProfessorDavid

Pearce.

310

David

Newbery



16/51

more

directly

armful

han acid rain.

To the extent hatozone

plays

a

major

role n

crop

and forest.

amage,

NOx,

which

s a

major

contributor

to ozone

production,

s

more

damaging

than

SO2.

Damage

to

buildings

and materialsoccurs

primarily

n urban areas

as

a

consequence

of

relatively igh

concentrations

f

SO2,

with ittle

effect etected

from

xposure

to

NOx.

The effects

ave

been observed

and

correctly

ttributed or

centuries,

nd

the

estimated

damage

costs

are

thought

o be

high.

Health effects f intense

pollution

an be dramatic-

as noted

above,

it is estimated

that

4,000

people

died in the

great

London

smog

of

December

1952.

Similar

evels

of

SO2

concentration

were attained

n

a

subsequent episode in London from 3-7 December 1962, after the

Clean

Air Act of 1956

had lead

to a

dramatic

fall

n

smoke concentra-

tions. This time an estimated

340

died,

suggesting

that the earlier

episode

was so

deadly

because

of

synergistic

nteractions etween moke

particles

nd

SO2

(Park,

1987,

p.

127).

It

appears

that

t is

the

gas

SO2

that s

harmful,

ather

han

the

wet formof acid rain. Acid rain in its

wet

form

an have indirect ffects

y

releasing

toxic

heavy

metals

nto

water

upplies.

ndividuals

vary onsiderably

n

their olerance

o these

gases,

but

there is some evidence from

epidemiological

studies that

long-term xposureat lower evelsthan thesedramatic pisodes can be

harmful o

health

Park,

1987,

p.

127.

See also Pearce and

Markandya,

1989,

for

summary

f the

extensive conomics

iterature

n

the health

impacts

of

SO2.)

If

SO2

and

particulates

re

lethal,

the

health

case

against

NOx

is

at

best

unproven,

for t

appears

that

NOx

is

much less active

biologically.

There is

a

certain

irony

in

the fact that

the

impetus

to

reducing

automobile missions

nitially

ame from

California,

where

t

was

suspec-

ted,

nd later stablished

hat

photochemical mog

was caused

by

vehicle

exhaust.The case mounted

by

he US Environmental rotection

gency

for

reducing

missionswas based on the

supposed

adverse

health ffects

of

high

oncentrations

f

ozone,

though ubsequent

tudies

Lave,

1982;

White,

1981;

1982)

cast considerabledoubt on the evidence. To

quote

White

(1981,

p.

59-60):

'...

the

ozone-related health effects

nder

discussion

were

short

erm nd

reversible....

Thus

far,

zone

exposure

has not been demonstrated

o

have

ong-term

ebilitating onsequences

in

humans.... The contrast

with

other studies of

pollutants,

uch as

particulates nd sulphates,was striking.... Particulates nd sulphates

probably

killed;

ozone

appeared

to do

littlemore than cause

coughing '

2.4.

Measuring

the costs

of acid rain

damage

Estimates

orthe

costs

of different

ypes

f

damage

are

scattered

n the

literature,

nd

varygreatly

n their

reliability.

earce and

Markandya

311

cid rain



17/51

(1989)

provide

a useful

methodological

iscussion f

cost-benefit

naly-

sis

applied

to

environmental

ollution,

ummarize a

variety

f

these

estimates,

nd

note the

criticisms o which

they

are vulnerable. One

approach

familiar o economists s to askwhat

people

wouldbe

willing

to

pay

for

property

ocated

in

less rather

than more

polluted

air,

as

reflected n the

response

of

property

alues

to

pollution

evels.

Most of

the

estimateshere come

from he 1960s and

1970s,

and

suggest

that

for

each

1%

increase

in

SO2

concentration,

roperty

values

fall

by

between

0.06-0.15 of

1%

of their

value for

a house of

average

value.

An

alternative

pproach

is to

look at

the direct conomiccosts

aused

by

the

acid

rain,

and

this has

been done

by

for the

Netherlands

for

1986. It was estimated hatcurrent osts wereabout $53-175 mn. per

annum,7

but

f

the

costsof

dealing

with

future

damage

were

taken

nto

account

(loss

of

timber

tc.)

this

might

rise to

$120-380

mn.

Looking

at the current

costs,

the

large

proportion

of the

total comes from

agricultural damage,

thus

extra

liming

of the soil to counteract

acidification

might

cost

$18-60

mn.,

and falls n

crop

yield

might

be

$36-360

mn.

One should

of

course be most

wary

bout

estimating

he

value of lost

agriculturaloutput

given

the

distortions f the

CAP.

Indeed,

as an

aside,

agriculture

s

responsible

for

considerable

ground

waterpollution notablynitrates,nd possibly lgal blooms).Much of

this s n

turn he

consequence

of ntensive

gricultural

ractices

nduced

by

the

high agriculturalprices

enjoyed

under the

CAP,

notablyhigh

fertilizer

evels.

f

forvarious

reasons t

s

difficulto reform

gricultural

output price

levels,

then there

s

a

strong

ase for

raisingagricultural

input

price

levels to the same ratio

to

world

prices

as

output prices

enjoy.

This

would

improve

the

efficiency

f

resource use and

reduce

the

deadweight

osses associated

with

the CAP. Thus if

output

prices

are

twice

mport

parity

evels,

then fertilizer

rices

should be taxed to

raisetheirpriceto twiceworld market evels.This would

go

some

way

to

reducing

another

formof

environmental

ollution.

See

Newbery,

1990,

for

the

details of the

arguments

n

efficient

nput

taxation.)

Other

ecological

damage

estimates

are

given

in

Environmental

Resources

Limited,

1983).

German forest

amage

was

put

at

$0.25

bn.

p.a.,

and

rough

estimates

f

potential

EC

wide

damage

can be

deduced

from he

annual value of

spruce

and

fir

orestry roduction

f

$6.6

bn.

p.a.

Thus

if

20%

of

forests re

adversely

ffected

o that heir

production

drops by 10%,

the

loss is

$0.13

mn.

p.a.8

OECD

(1981)

estimated hat

I

I

7

Unless

otherwise

tated,

ll cost estimates

re in mid-1989

purchasingpower, updating

from

the US consumer

price

index.

8

But

note that here

s still

onsiderable

disagreement

s

to

how much forest

amage

has occurred

and

how

much

s

caused

by

acid rain.

312

David

Newbery



18/51

the value

of

fish oss in

Scandinavia was

$38

mn.

p.a.

and

in

Scotland

might

be

$0.7

mn.

p.a.

Acid rain causes

material

damage,

whose

costs,

excluding

the

costs

of

restoring

istoric

uildings,

have been estimated

by

UNECE

(1982)

at between

$4-17/head

(i.e.

$1.0-4.7

bn. for

the

1983

European

Com-

munity

s a

whole).

The

figures

n

the Netherlands

re somewhat

higher

($10-19/head)

and in

Germany

are estimated at

$19/head.

Environ-

mental

Resources

Limited,

1983)

gives figures

romOECD

(1981)

for

the estimated

otal

orrosion

damage

for

12

OECD

European

countries

to

galvanized

teel

nd

its

paintcoatings

n 1974. For the UK the

figures

were

$5.9

bn.

p.a.,

for West

Germany

$9.5

bn.

p.a.,

and

for

Belgium,

Luxembourg,Denmark,France and the Netherlands ogether 3.3 bn.,

or

in total

$18.7

bn. How much of

this

can be

attributed o acid rain is

stillunder

study.

Reducing

car

emissions would

also

reduce

photochemical mog

in

some areas-

particularly

hose which

experience temperature

nver-

sions combined

with

strong

un. Los

Angeles

is

the

leading example,

but

clearly

Athens suffers

imilarly.

here

is no

doubt that hose

iving

in

such areas

would be

willing

o

pay

for

reductions

n

smog

evels,

nd

Schechter

t

al.

(1989)

estimate hathouseholds

in

metropolitan

Haifa,

Israel,would be willing o pay?12 (?1987) per householdper annum

to

reduce

pollution

levels

by

50%.

It

is difficulto

imagine

that this

would

amount to a

large

total

sum

for

Europe

as a whole

compared

withthe

other

damage

costs,

given

the relative

nfrequency

f

photo-

chemical

smog

in

more

Northerly

limes.

2.5.

The costs

of

abatement

The

Department

of

Environment

stimated

the

costs to the UK of

retrofitting

GW of coal fired

plant

withFlue Gas

Desulphurization

(FGD)

and

all

12

major

coal fired

power

stations

23 GW)

with ow

NOx

burners at

over

?1 bn. It

now seems doubtful

hat more than a small

part

of this

programme

will

go

ahead,

as the

liability

o

install FGD

would make the

privatization

ale

of

the CEGB unattractive.nstead it

appears

that the successor

companies

to

the

CEGB,

Powergen

and

National

Power,

will meet the

emissions tandards

by

a combination f

installing

igh efficiency

as

turbines nd

importing

ow

sulphur

coal.

The impact of this on British Coal will be substantial, nd it is in

interesting

xample

of

how the

(private) cost-minimizing

olution

to

the emissions standards

may

differ rom

centrally mposed

solutions.

The

Government

also intends to

apply

the EC

large

car emission

standards

'as soon as

practical, probably

in the

early

1990s,'

at

an

estimated nnual cost

of

?550

mn.

The second

stage, pplying

o small

Acid

rain

313



19/51

Table 5. Estimates of

costs

of

reducing

SO2

by

various means

Cost

($1989)

per

tonneof SO2

Source Action removed

A

moving

o

low

sulphur gas

oil

2,560

A

moving

o

low

sulphur

fuel oil 640

A Fluidized bed combustors

FBC):

new

boilers 96

existing

2,240

A

Flue

gas

desulphurization

FGD):

new

plant

256

existingplant

640

B Drax FGD newplant 350

C

FGD retrofit

,000

MW

plant

400-750

D

60%

reductionfrom

40

GW CEGB

coal

capacity

600

E FGD

90%

removal

600

E

FGD

marginal

cost

of

next

5%

removal

1,600

F

US

coal

generators,

oal

switching,

v

cost 400

F

US

coal

generators,

no

coal

switching,

v cost 460

G East

Germany,

Wellman-Lord

FGD,

net of S sales 300

H move from

2.15%

to

1%

sulphur heavy

fuel oil 380

H

move

from

1%

to

0.7%

sulphur heavy

fuel oil

825

Sources:A, Environmental esourcesLimited 1983, p. 137,uprated by1.28to$1989).

B,

Based

on

Layfield

1987)

and

Jeffrey

1988).

C,

Longhurst

et

al.

(1987).

D,

Dudley

et al.

(1985,

p.

121).

E,

Brackley

1987).

F,

Congressional Budget

Office

1986)

in

Dowlatabadi and

Harrington

1989).

These are

average

costs.

Marginal

cost

might

be

twice

verage

cost.

G,

Acid

News,

No.

3,

July

1989,

p.

9.

H,

Alfsen

et

al.

(1986).

cars,

was estimated o

add an additional

?250

mn.

per

annum,

a total

of

about

4%

of

UK

motoring

osts.

Department

of

Environment,

988,

7.14-15.)

This

sectionexamines various estimates f the

costs of abate-

ment n

somewhatmore detail to see

if

mandatingparticular

olutions

is

likely

to be cost effective,nd to check on the

consistency

nd

plausibility

f various

estimates.

The

results re summarized n Table

5 and

then

briefly

xplained.

The

sources

of

these

estimates re

as

follows. nvironmental

esour-

ces

Limited

1983)

gives

estimates f the

capital

cost

of FGD at

$175-

200/kW

r

about

15-20%

of the

capital

cost of

the

plant. Retrofitting,

where

practical,

may

increase

this

cost

by

a

further

30-50%.

FGD

reduces thermal

fficiencyy

about

2%

(e.g.

from

36%

to

34.1%)

and

so can increase the

operating

costs

by 10-20%.

the

first

tation

which

the CEGB

plans

to

retrofits Drax A+

B,

which has a total

capacity

f

4,000

MW,

and

which burns

11 mn.

tonnes of

coal

per

annum with

sulphur

content of

1.7%.

If

95%

of this

were

previously

eleased

as

SO2,

theannual

emissions

would

be

178,000

tonnes

S,

or

338,000

tonnes

SO2.

After

fitting

GD,

90%

of

the

SO2

will be

removed,

and the

314

David

Newbery



20/51

reduction n

SO2

would be

287,000

tonnes.

The

Layfieldreport

gives

the

costs

of FGD

as

?17/kW/year,

roken down into

?5

capital,

?2.5

operating

and

?9.5

for

loss

of

thermal

efficiency.

his last

figure

depends

on the cost of coal which has since fallenand

Jeffrey

1988)

estimates he

efficiency

ost as

?6.5.

Using

these

figures

he annualized

cost of

the Drax

programme

would be ?56

mn.,

or about

?200/tonne

SO2

reduction.

Longhurst

et

al.

(1987)

gives

the CEGB's

estimates f

the

cost

of

retrofitting

GD for a

2,000

MW

plant

as

?160

mn.

plus

?35

mn. in

lost

output,

or

?440-740/tonne

of

sulphur

removed from

the

gas

stream

i.e.

?230-390/tonne

SO2

removed).

Dudley

et

l.

(1985,

p.

121)

try

o cost a

programme

o

achieve a

60%

reduction n

SO2

in

UK emissionsfrom ts 40 GW coal-fired apacityusingCEGB data and

data

presented

at the

Layfield

enquiry.

The

levelized lifetime ost

of

sulphur

bated

ranges

from

442/tonne

to

?738

with n

average

value

of

?550,

all

in

?1983.

(The

average figure

s thus

?745

in

?1989,

or

$1,200/tonne

. The costs

per

tonne

SO2

removed would

be abouthalf

this.)

Brackley

1987)

estimates

he cost

of

SO2

removal

using

FGD

as

$1,150/tonne

removed

with

90%

removal,

rising

to

$3,000/tonne

forthe next

5%

removed

n

going

from

90-95%

removal,

n

both cases

using

coal with

1

%

sulphur

content. his

figure

s

very

lose to

Dudley's

estimate.

The

effect

n

the costof

electricityeneration

would

be

about

10-15%

of the cost

of

generation

from oal-fired

ower

stations,

r

possibly

%

of the

price paid by

customers.9

his can

usefully

be

compared

with

the

predicted

size

of

the

nuclear

evy'

of

11%

of the

sales

price,

which

will

be

paid by

consumersof

fossil-fuel

enerated electricity

fter

he

privatization

f

the CEGB to cover the

cost of

supplying

20%

of

total

electricity

y

non-conventional

mainly

nuclear)

means.'0

Dowlatabadi and

Harrington

1989),

in a rather

critical ccount of

US estimates f the costsof argeprogrammes o reduce total missions

by

8

mn. tonnes

per

annum from

he

current evels of

25

mn.

tonnes,

cites

various

estimates

of the

average

cost

per

tonne

SO2

reduction.

Thus the

Congressional

Budget

Office

1986)

gives

he

eastcostmethod

of

making

his

reduction

by

allowing

he

utilities

o

choose how best to

meet

the

standards)

as

$360/tonne,

nd

$400/tonne

f

they

must con-

tinue o use

thesame

coal as

originally

nstead

of

substituting

o

ower

ul-

phur

contentcoal.

These are

average

costs,

nd

there s

considerable

I I

9

Based

on

estimated

capital

costs of

100-200/kWe

capacity,

5-7%

discount

rate,

30-40

year

lifetime,

0%

load

factor,

nd

1.7%

sulphur

coal content.The

calculated

figure

s

reassuringly

close to

that

given

n

1984

by

the

CEGB in HMSO

(1984,

para

5.93).

10

This

suggests

he

cost

of

non-conventional

lternative s

55%

of

the

final

price

11%

borne

by

80%

of

the total allocated to the

20%

non-conventional)

which

seems

unreasonably

high.

But

detailed estimates f the cost of nuclear

power

are not

yet

available.

Acidrain

315



21/51

agreement

that the

marginal

costsof

high

levelsof

sulphur

removal

are

substantially

igher

han

smallreductions.

f

the

marginal

ost

were

twice the

average

cost at

this

programme

evel then the US

figures

would be

close to the CEGB

figures.

stimates

based on

German data

applied

to East

Germany

uggest

hat

the

capital

cost

per

kW

capacity

is DM

600

using

the Wellman-Lord

method."

At

present

the

capacity

of

the

15

larger

plants

is

13.3 GW which s

responsible

for

1.98 mn.

tonnes f

SO2

p.a.

The

capital

ostwould be DM 8

bn.,

and the

estimated

annual cost of

operating

ess

the value of the

sulphur

sold on world

markets would

be

DM

1.6bn.,

or DM

600/tonne

SO2

removed,

or

$300/tonne

O2,

which

appears

rather ow.

An alternative ptionforreducingSO2 emissions stoswitch olower

sulphur

content

fuels. Thus

Alfsen

et al.

(1986)

calculate the cost of

switching

rom

high

to

low

sulphurheavy

fuel oil as

2,300

NOK/tonne

SO2

removed

(i.e. $380)

when

moving

from

2.15%

to

1%

HFO,

and

5,000

NOK/tonne

removed

(=$823)

when

moving

from

1%

to

0.7%

HFO.

Table

5

shows

similar alculations

f

switching

rom

high

to low

sulphur

fuels

for

the EEC

given

n EnvironmentalResources Limited

(1983,

p.

137).

What

stands out

from Table 5 is

the wide variation n

the costs

of

the most common proposed method of dealing with large power

stations-flue

gas desulphurization,

r FGD. In

part

this

variation

may

be

explained by

differing

egrees

of

sulphur

removal estimate shows

that

he

marginal

ost s

sharply

ncreasing.

The East

German estimates

may

be based on lower construction

osts or a more

optimistic

iew of

the

value

of

recovered

sulphur.

The

figures

for

FGD

from

source

A

seem

rather ow when

compared

to other stimates.

Unfortunately

here

are no

European

estimates or the

important

ption

of

shifting

o low

sulphur

oal.

In

part

his s

because,

unlike

oil,

there s no

clearly

efined

worldmarket

price

for he two

grades

of coal thatwould allow a robust

estimate o

be made

of the differentialost

of

shifting

rom

high

to low

sulphur

coal.

The

study

by

Environmental

Resources Limited

(1983)

concludes

that the

estimated

total

damage

caused

by

acid rain

might

be in

the

range

$0.6-4.5

bn.

per

annum,

of

which the

larger part

is

damage

to

buildings,

hen to

forests,

hen to

crops,

withfisheries

egligible.

The

costs f

Date post:	10-Oct-2015
Category:	Documents
Upload:	teodorasimionel
View:	22 times
Download:	1 times

Acid Rain, by David Newbery

Documents