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ACM 97
Computing Computing AlternativesAlternatives
Joel BirnbaumJoel BirnbaumHewlett-Packard Senior VP R&D, Hewlett-Packard Senior VP R&D, Director, HP LabsDirector, HP Labs
ACM 97
ACM 97ACM 97
Copyright Copyright 1997 ACM, Association for Computing 1997 ACM, Association for Computing
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THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTINGTHE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
ACM 97
ENIAC Vital Statistics Physical Characteristics
19,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 relays 60,000 pounds, 16,200 cubic feet 174 kilowatts 5 kflops (~ same as Intel 4004)
Future Prediction (1949 Popular Mechanics)
1,500 vacuum tubes 3,000 pounds 10 kilowatts
ACM 97
ENIAC Vital Statistics Physical Characteristics
19,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 relays 60,000 pounds, 16,200 cubic feet 174 kilowatts 5 kflops (~ same as Intel 4004)
Future Prediction (1949 Popular Mechanics)
1,500 vacuum tubes 3,000 pounds 10 kilowatts
ACM 97
Moore’s Law
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000103
104
105
106
107
108
109
Date
Tra
nsi
sto
rs p
er C
hip
4004
8080
8086
80286 80386
80486
Pentium
Pentium Pro
80786
2004 2008
?
ACM 97
Moore’s Law
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000103
104
105
106
107
108
109
Date
Tra
nsi
sto
rs p
er C
hip
4004
8080
8086
80286 80386
80486
Pentium
Pentium Pro
80786
2004 2008
?
ACM 97
Vanishing Electrons
198810-1
Date
Ele
ctro
ns
per
Dev
ice
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
100
101
102
103
104
16M64M
256M1G
4G16G
Transistors per Chip
Source: Motorola
?
ACM 97
Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si)
Length (microns)
0.20.4
0.6
20
0
-20
Hei
gh
t (n
m)
0.8
Average Height: 15nm
Standard Dev.: <1nm
Density: 6.4 x 109 /cm2
Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative
ACM 97
Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si)
Length (microns)
0.20.4
0.6
20
0
-20
Hei
gh
t (n
m)
0.8
Average Height: 15nm
Standard Dev.: <1nm
Density: 6.4 x 109 /cm2
Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative
ACM 97
Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si)
Length (microns)
0.20.4
0.6
20
0
-20
Hei
gh
t (n
m)
0.8
Average Height: 15nm
Standard Dev.: <1nm
Density: 6.4 x 109 /cm2
Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative
ACM 97
Computational Complexity
Input Size L
Exe
cuti
on
Tim
e
Exp(L)
Ln
L
Exp
NP
P
Efficiency of an algorithm depends on how its executiontime grows as the size of the problem (input) increases...
Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University
ACM 97
Difficulty in FactoringNumber N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10L
The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N1/2
Number of divisions required: N1/2 = 10L/2
Grows Exponentially with LIf a computer can perform 1010 divisions per second,factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this methodtakes 1040 seconds, much longer than the age of theuniverse (1017 seconds)
Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University
ACM 97
Difficulty in FactoringNumber N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10L
The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N1/2
Number of divisions required: N1/2 = 10L/2
Grows Exponentially with LIf a computer can perform 1010 divisions per second,factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this methodtakes 1040 seconds, much longer than the age of theuniverse (1017 seconds)
Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University
ACM 97
Difficulty in FactoringNumber N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10L
The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N1/2
Number of divisions required: N1/2 = 10L/2
Grows Exponentially with LIf a computer can perform 1010 divisions per second,factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this methodtakes 1040 seconds, much longer than the age of theuniverse (1017 seconds)
Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University
ACM 97
The Traveling Salesman Problem:
To find the shortest path from start to end goingthrough all the points only once.
0
3
4
1
6
52
Source: Dr. Leonard M. Adleman
ACM 97
Step 1:Generate random paths Randomly ligate together
pieces of DNA
DNA Ligase
01
2 3
4 5 6
0
1
0 1 12 3 4 6
1 2 3 4 5
2 3 4
ACM 97
Step 2:Keep only paths startingwith 0 and ending with 6
Use the Polymerase ChainReaction
PCR 0-6
0 1 12 3 4 6
0 1 13 2 4 6
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4
0 2 64
0 1 43 5 6
ACM 97
0 1 2 3 4 6
Step 3:
PAGE
Keep only paths that enterexactly 7 vertices
Separate the PCR productsby PAGE
5
0 1 2 3 4 65
0 2 4 6
0 1 2 45 65
0 1 2 45 65
ACM 97
Step 4:
Affinity Purification
0 1 2 3 4 65
Keep only paths that enterall 7 vertices at least once
Isolate DNA by sequentialaffinity purification
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 45 65
ACM 97
Hybrid Fourier Transform Processor
Laser
CollimatingLens
SpatialLight
Modulator
OutputPlane
Digital To Computer
Digital FromComputer
Creates a coherent,monochromatic lightsource
Incoming lightcreates desiredinput object
performsFourier Transform
Incoming lightcreates desiredinput object
performsFourier Transform
Creates a coherent,monochromatic lightsource
OpticalSystem
ACM 97
Hybrid Fourier Transform Processor
Laser
CollimatingLens
SpatialLight
Modulator
OutputPlane
Digital To Computer
Digital FromComputer
Creates a coherent,monochromatic lightsource
Incoming lightcreates desiredinput object
performsFourier Transform
Incoming lightcreates desiredinput object
performsFourier Transform
Creates a coherent,monochromatic lightsource
OpticalSystem
ACM 97
Hybrid Fourier Transform Processor
Laser
CollimatingLens
SpatialLight
Modulator
OutputPlane
Digital To Computer
Digital FromComputer
Creates a coherent,monochromatic lightsource
Incoming lightcreates desiredinput object
performsFourier Transform
Incoming lightcreates desiredinput object
performsFourier Transform
Creates a coherent,monochromatic lightsource
OpticalSystem