ACM 97

The Next 50 Years

of NetworkingVinton G. Cerf

Senior VP, Internet Architecture,

MCI

ACM 97

ACM 97ACM 97THE NEXT THE NEXT 5050 YEARS OF YEARS OF

COMPUTINGCOMPUTING

ACM 97

ACM 97ACM 97

Copyright Copyright 1997 ACM, Association for Computing 1997 ACM, Association for Computing

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THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTINGTHE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

ACM 97

James BurkeJames Burke

Master of CeremoniesMaster of Ceremonies

ACM 97VINT CERF

ACM 97

ACM 97

ACM 97

ACM 97

ACM 97

Fax, Television - Long MaturationFax, Television - Long Maturation Internet Takes 20+ YearsInternet Takes 20+ Years Internet Driven From OutsideInternet Driven From Outside

– Gopher, WWWGopher, WWW– Internet Telephony, JavaInternet Telephony, Java

Sigrid’s Cochlear ImplantSigrid’s Cochlear Implant

And Everything Happens And Everything Happens OvernightOvernight

ACM 97

Interworking of Telephony Interworking of Telephony Services With the InternetServices With the Internet– Interweaving of Two Great Interweaving of Two Great

Networks of the 20th CenturyNetworks of the 20th Century Network Independent ServicesNetwork Independent Services ““internet telephony” as internet telephony” as

inadequate as “horseless inadequate as “horseless carriage” to describecarriage” to describe

Weaving a New FabricWeaving a New Fabric

ACM 97

Customers Want InteroperabilityCustomers Want Interoperability Open Standards are RequiredOpen Standards are Required Interoperability Opens New Interoperability Opens New

Application PossibilitiesApplication Possibilities New Platforms: WWW, Vault, New Platforms: WWW, Vault,

Java, GamesJava, Games

Interoperability Is The KeyInteroperability Is The Key

ACM 97

ACM 97

American “Instant Gratification”American “Instant Gratification” Telecommuting at Home, Teleplay Telecommuting at Home, Teleplay

at Work!at Work! Micropayments and the Penny Micropayments and the Penny

NovelNovel Johnny’s Mommy and Teacher, Johnny’s Mommy and Teacher,

Email and the WWWEmail and the WWW

Everything On DemandEverything On Demand

ACM 97

ACM 97

Continuous ConnectionContinuous Connection ““Smart” Scales, refrigeratorSmart” Scales, refrigerator ““Smart” Sensors - Computer Knows Smart” Sensors - Computer Knows

Where it is, When it is, TemperatureWhere it is, When it is, Temperature Reading Glasses -- 21st C StyleReading Glasses -- 21st C Style 21st Century Microwave Oven21st Century Microwave Oven

Network ImmersionNetwork Immersion

ACM 97

““Telephony”, “Video”, “Radio” Over Telephony”, “Video”, “Radio” Over InternetInternet

Internet over TV, Radio, SatelliteInternet over TV, Radio, Satellite Mutual Reinforcement Among MediaMutual Reinforcement Among Media Paper May Become Specialty ItemPaper May Become Specialty Item Not Only Human, but Computer Not Only Human, but Computer

InteractionInteraction

Internet and the MediaInternet and the Media

ACM 97

Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA. . . Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA. . . CombinedCombined

Bodynets - “Hardwear” and “Softwear”?Bodynets - “Hardwear” and “Softwear”? Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads?Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads? Speech Recognition - Narrow FocusSpeech Recognition - Narrow Focus Real Progress -- Easily Programmable Real Progress -- Easily Programmable

VCR!VCR!

Net Potato?Net Potato?

ACM 97

Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA. . . Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA. . . CombinedCombined

Bodynets - “Hardwear” and “Softwear”?Bodynets - “Hardwear” and “Softwear”? Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads?Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads? Speech Recognition - Narrow FocusSpeech Recognition - Narrow Focus Real Progress -- Easily Programmable Real Progress -- Easily Programmable

VCR!VCR!

Net Potato?Net Potato?

ACM 97

Multiparty Gaming CommonMultiparty Gaming Common Virtual Shopping, Banking & Virtual Shopping, Banking &

Learning Rapidly EvolveLearning Rapidly Evolve Advent of Digital ActorAdvent of Digital Actor Star Wars: The Special EditionStar Wars: The Special Edition Digital Characters Appear Across Digital Characters Appear Across

Variety of MediaVariety of Media

The Virtual LifestyleThe Virtual Lifestyle

ACM 97

Not Enough Addresses - IPV6Not Enough Addresses - IPV6 Inadequate Routing - Tag, IP Switching, Inadequate Routing - Tag, IP Switching,

CIDR, Flow Mgmt.CIDR, Flow Mgmt. Traffic - Faster FiberTraffic - Faster Fiber Expense - Competition, Usage-Based Expense - Competition, Usage-Based

PricingPricing Regulation, Censorship Won’t Work Regulation, Censorship Won’t Work

(Gilmore)(Gilmore)

Stumbling Blocks and Stumbling Blocks and SolutionsSolutions

ACM 97

More Devices Than People on the More Devices Than People on the InternetInternet

Computer Mediated Communication Computer Mediated Communication and Memory and Memory – Alzheimer’s, Vint’s Hard Disk and Alta Alzheimer’s, Vint’s Hard Disk and Alta

VistaVista Interaction of Intelligent Agents Interaction of Intelligent Agents

Throughout the NetworkThroughout the Network

OutcomesOutcomes

ACM 97

PredictionPrediction

I will not live to see whatI will not live to see what

happens in 2047, but Ihappens in 2047, but I

will live to regret thesewill live to regret these

timid future predictions!timid future predictions!