Issue Number 129June 2013
Catalogue of CCFEI China Report (Monthly)
Acrylic
Polyester
Nylon
Viscose
Spandex
Propylene Acrylic Fiber
Paraxylene
MEG
Fiber Grade PET
Polyester Staple
Caprolactam
Nylon Filament
Viscose Feedstock
Viscose Filament
MDI/PTMEG
Acrylonitrile ABS
PTA
Bottle Grade PET
Polyester Filament
Recycled PSF
Nylon Chips
Viscose Staple
Spandex
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net June 2013 [C3]
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Propylene Price Trends of Propylene vs Crude Oil
11001150120012501300135014001450150015501600
24Fe
b
3Mar
10M
ar
17M
ar
24M
ar
31M
ar
7Apr
14A
pr
21A
pr
28A
pr
5May
12M
ay
19M
ay
26M
ay
2Jun
9Jun
16Ju
n
23Ju
n
30Ju
n
$/ton
707580859095100105110115120
$/bbl
C3（FOB Korea）Crude oil WTI
Propylene Market Trend in June 2013
Asia:
Week 1: Asian propylene prices rose for the seventh week, with supply in South Korea becoming increasingly low. The FOB Korea and the FOB Japan markers were assessed at $1,295/mt and $1,285/mt, respectively, both up $5/mt week on week. Week 2: Asian propylene prices increased for an eighth straight week amid active trading after China's three-day holiday. The FOB Korea and the FOB Japan markers both rose $10/mt week on week to be assessed at $1,305/mt and $1,295/mt, respectively. Week 3: Asian propylene prices surpassed $1,400/mt CFR China this week to hit a near four-month high. The FOB Korea and the FOB Japan markers were assessed at $1,340/mt and $1,330/mt, respectively, both up $35/mt week on week. Week 4: Asian propylene prices rose this week on scarce supply and thin liquidity. The FOB Korea marker was assessed at $1,365/mt, up $25/mt week on week, and the FOB Japan marker rose $15/mt to $1,345/mt over the same period. The CFR China and CFR Taiwan markers both increased $15/mt week on week to $1,425/mt and $1,410/mt, respectively.
Propylene values closed at $1,364-1,366/ton FOB Korea in June. Europe:
In Jun, spot propylene market in NW Europe was weak across the board, and supply and demand fundamentals remained balanced. In early Jun, European spot polymer grade propylene market softened on marginally lower offers to be assessed at Eur1,017-1,022/mt FD NWE. The European polymer grade propylene market was adequately supplied in most geographies as market sources reported balanced systems so far in June. There was no acute tightness in supply, despite a lack of propylene imports and the improved performance of some derivatives, which was caused by inventory rebuilding and some ongoing propylene production disruptions. In mid Jun, The European propylene market remained well supported amid better volume offtake of key derivatives, such as polypropylene and acrylonitrile. Higher contractual volumes from polymers segments, as well as previous production shortfalls in propylene, continued to support good utilization rates of steam crackers. Meanwhile, in the Mediterranean region, there was some short-covering. However, in other European geographies, buying interest was more subdued as occasional incremental demand into polypropylene applications filtered through, according to sources. In late Jun, The July European propylene contract price fully settled at Eur1,040/mt FD NWE, a rollover from June.
Spot PGP values closed at €1,018-1,023/ton CIF NWE in June. USA:
H1 June: US spot refinery-grade propylene gained 2 cents/lb to be assessed at 57.25-57.75 cents/lb delivered, the highest assessment since March 14 when it was assessed at 57 cents/lb delivered. Sources cited reduced refinery run rates leading to an overall tightening of RGP supply. H2 June: US spot refinery-grade propylene declined 0.25 cent, to be assessed at 55.50-56.00 cents/lb delivered, as refinery operating rates improved.
Spot PGP values closed at 61.50-62.00 cents/lb FOB USG in June.
International Propylene Monthly Price Trend Asia (FOB Korea, $/ton) Europe (CIF NWE, €/ton) US (FOB, cts/lb)
May Jun Jul est. May Jun Jul est. May Jun Jul est.
1257 1312 ↑ 999.0 1020.5 ↑ 60.05 62.125 ↑
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net June 2013 [ACN]
2
Acrylonitrile USD-based Weekly Spot Prices CFR FE ($/ton)
Week Time Price
Week 1 3 Jun-7 Jun 1,720
Week 2 10 Jun-14 Jun 1,720
Week 3 17 Jun-21 Jun 1,755
Week 4 24 Jun-28 Jun 1,775
Monthly Ave. in Jun 1,743 RMB-based Weekly Spot Prices (yuan/ton)
Week Time Price Week 1 3 Jun-7 Jun 12,680
Week 2 10 Jun-14 Jun 12,700
Week 3 17 Jun-21 Jun 12,700
Week 4 24 Jun-28 Jun 12,660
Monthly Ave. in Jun 12,685
Global ACN Market Trend in June
In Asia: Week 1, as talking atmosphere was insipid, Asian spot assessment stalemated at $1,719-1,721/ton CFR FE.
Week 2, in Asian ACN market, demand for spots was muted, and price disparity was wide. Therefore, Asian ACN spot
assessment stabilized at $1,719-1,721/ton CFR FE. Week 3, Asian ACN prices climbed by $35/ton to $1,754-1756/ton,
due to increasing cost and shortened supply. Week 4, feedstock propylene prices went up, so ACN spot assessment gained
$20/ton to $1,774-1,776/ton CFR FE.
In Europe: Week 1, European spot ACN prices inched up by $5/ton to close the week at $1,625-1,630/ton CIF Med,
because propylene price moved up. But overall demand remained muted. Week 2, spot prices extended its hike to
$1,645-1,650/ton CIF Med, up by $20/ton due to strengthened buying intention, though confirmed deals were limited.
Week 3, ACN supply in Europe tightened, thus price surged by $55/ton to $1,700-1,705/ton CIF Med. Week 4, in
European ACN market, assessments shifted upward by $35/ton to $1,735-1,740/ton CIF Med, given decreasing supply,
despite insipid trading activities.
In USA: Week 1, US ACN spot assessments ticked higher by $30/ton to $1,620-1,640/ton FOB USG for some
confirmed deals and increasing demand. Week 2, US assessments for spots rose $40/ton to $1,660-1,680/ton FOB USG,
owing to more inquiries and gaining feedstock propylene settlements. Week 3, US ACN spot numbers extended its
territory by $55/ton this week, assessed at $1,715-1,735/ton FOB USG given strengthened demand and supply
shortness. Week 4, as supply was short and players expected that propylene prices will jump, spot export prices edged up
by $5/ton on week to $1,720-1,740/ton FOB USG.
Price Range for ACN in China in June (yuan/ton, $/ton)
Lianyungang (ex-tank) East China (ex-works) NE China and Shandong
(ex-works) USD-based (CFR China)
Early Mid Late Early Mid Late Early Mid Late Early Mid Late
12,600-
12,700
12,600-
12,700
12,600-
12,700
12,500-
12,550
12,600-
12,800
12,700-
12,800
12,000-
12,100
12,100-
12,250
12,250-
12,250
1,650-
1,700
1,650-
1,700
1,680-
1,720
Monthly International ACN Value Trend
Asia (CFR, $/ton) Europe (CIF, $/ton) USA (FOB, $/ton) May Jun Jul est. May Jun Jul est. May Jun Jul est.
1,724 1,743 ↑ 1,667 1,679 ↑ 1,600 1,689 ↑
$
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net June 2013 [ACN]
3
Statistics on ACN Imports in China (ton, $/ton)
Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Origin
Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val.
Japan 5,901 1,926 6,475 2,015 6,389 1,965
S. Korea 21,699 1,977 18,064 1,911 11,881 1,799
Chinese Taiwan 16,869 1,914 9,036 1,873 9,940 1,760
USA 7,895 1,831 7,602 1,978 11,129 1,879
Turkey -- -- -- -- -- --
Brazil -- -- -- -- -- --
Russia -- -- -- -- -- --
Others 7,993 1,904 9,993 1,931 -- --
Total /Ave. Val. 60,357 1,926 51,170 1,931 39,339 1,839
Ave import price for ACN into China in May is $1,839/ton, down by $5/ton from $1,931/ton of Apr 2013. Ave import price in Jan-May 2013 is $1,833/ton. ACN imports in May totaled 39.34 kt, shrinking by 30.07% from about 51.17 kt in Apr.
Capacity and Operation Status of Chinese ACN Producers during June
Producer Capt. (kt/yr) Operation Remarks
CNPC Jilin Chemical 452 65% No.3 & No.4 running at 85-90%, No.2 unit to restart in early Jul
Shanghai Petrochemical 130 100% T/A is not on agenda. Shanghai Secco 260 100% Cut run rates a bit in late May; No.2 unit to start up in early 2015.
Fushun Petrochemical 92 Idled Failing to restart in mid-June, and plan to restart in early Jul
Anqing Petrochemical 210 100% New unit is running at 100%, while old unit shut down on 25 Apr for T/A and restart in mid Jul.
Daqing Petrochemical 80 100% Planned T/A from 5 August for 20 days with downstream AF unit
Daqing R & C 80 100% Captive use for polyacrylamide and acetonitrile production
Lanzhou Petrochemical 35 100% Captive use; have taken a one-month T/A from Apr to May.
Qilu Petrochemical 80 100% Already signed joint venture ACN project with Wanda and first phase is planned to be built before 2014
In Jun, overall run rate of ACN units in China inched up to 78.95% as some units were restarted. Monthly production is estimated at 93.4kt.
CCFEI Comment Feedstock: In Jun, international crude oil market reached its peak at $98.44/bbl on 18 Jun due to decreasing inventory
and Syria crisis. But the prices fell to $93.69/bbl on 21 Jun, and then closed at $95.5/bbl on 26 Jun, due to frail Chinese macroeconomy and strengthened US dollar. Asian propylene showed stable-to-firm performance. Prices rallied to $1,290/ton FOB Korea by 26 Jun on less supply caused by turnarounds, up by $50/ton from the beginning of Jun.
Supply: In Jun, overall run rate of domestic producers went up after some units were restarted in June. Fushun Petrochemical’s unit failed to restart, and planned to do it again in early July. In spot market, major traders at ports held normal inventory, but supply would increase as cargoes arrived at the end of Jun. In import market, spot transaction atmosphere was still muted. Offers for offshore cargoes were seen above $1,750/ton. Some spot deep-sea offers reached $1,650-1,680/ton CFR China. As future picture remained unclear, confirmed deals were hard to find. Total import volume in May fell by 30.07% on month to 39.34 kt and the number for Jun is expected to be low. Overall, output in June returned to normal level following the restart of units. It is expected that domestic supply may increase at the beginning of July due to cargo arrivals, but an oversupply situation will still be elusive for the moment.
Demand: In Jun, ACN demand didn’t notably improve, as buyers purchased from hand to mouth. AF market was on a flat range-bound, and nominations for Jul and settlement for Jun went on stabilizing. ACN consumption may increase as run rate in July is expected to rise to over 90%. On ABS market, sentiment mildly ranged bound. Demand remained tenuous as consumers purchased as needed. Sellers generally concluded deals according to market prices. Majors in East China kept run rates at 70-80%, with some of their colleagues in northeast China at 40-50%. Some units were still on T/A, while inventory was low and liquidity was normal. In acrylamide market, sentiment was tenuous owing to frail demand. Thus, producers saw slow liquidity. In general, ACN demand was yet to fundamentally strengthen due to a lack of positive news on demand. However, demand may increase somewhat later as run rates of some AF unit will be ramped up in Jul.
CCFEI Forecast: Domestic ACN prices were stalemated in Jun. Transaction prices for spots at East China ports hovered at 12,600-12,800 yuan/ton. Trading atmosphere was stalemated for a lack of direction on fundamentals. However, the cautious atmosphere increased at the end of June, as expectation of more supply strengthened. It is expected that sentiment will be weak in Jul, but a big dive will be hindered by cost support.
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net June 2013 [AF]
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Acrylic Fiber
1.5D Staple Prices (yuan/ton)
Week Date Prices
Week 1 3Jun-7Jun 18,300
Week 2 10Jun-14Jun 18,300
Week 3 17Jun-21Jun 18,300
Week 4 24Jun-28Jun 18,300
Monthly average in Jun 18,300
Weekly Average Price
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
11Jan 22Feb 5Apr 17May 28Jun
Acrylic staple 1.5D
Acrylic top 3D
Y/T
3D Top Prices (yuan/ton)
Week Date Prices
Week 1 3Jun-7Jun 19,000
Week 2 10Jun-14Jun 19,000
Week 3 17Jun-21Jun 19,000
Week 4 24Jun-28Jun 19,000
Monthly average in Jun 19,000
Monthly Average Price
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Acrylic staple 1.5D
Acrylic top 3D
Y/T
Acrylic Fiber Market Sentiment in June
Week 1: Domestic acrylic fiber market in China went stable this week on support of output cut and firm feedstock. Activities increased in spot market, and suppliers reported better sales. However, downstream demand was
still described as less satisfactory. Offers for 1.5D staple were at 17,850-18,500 yuan/ton cash in eastern China, and
3D medium length was offered at 17,650-18,000 yuan/ton. In USD-based market, most suppliers held stable offer for
June, while a few measured up offers on improved sentiment. 3D tow was offered at $2.30-2.40/kg CFR, L/C 90 days.
Firm deals were negotiable.
Week 2: Domestic acrylic fiber market was quiet this week as players were mostly away for holiday. Trading
activity was thin, and the market remained stable. 1.5D staple fiber was offered at 17,850-18,500 yuan/ton cash, and
3D staple at 17,650-18,000 yuan/ton. In USD-based market, there was little improvement in trading this week on
barely opened arbitrage window. In addition, buyers were reluctant to operate amid cautious sentiment.
Week 3: Domestic acrylic fiber market in China held stable this week amid stable sales. While suppliers continued
to run with reduced rates, buying interest remained as lusterless in spot market. Offers for 1.5D staple were at
17,850-18,500 yuan/ton cash in eastern China, and 3D medium length was offered at 17,650-18,000 yuan/ton. In USD-
based market, the market muted compared with early in the month, with buyers standing sideway. 3D tow was offered
at $2.30-2.4/kg CFR, L/C 90 days. Some downstream mills were stocking up, while traders had limited buying interest.
Week 4: Domestic acrylic fiber market in China held steady this week amid stable sales. June settlements and
July offers were settled flat, helping to support the market, while buyers continued to buy from hand to mouth.
Offers for 1.5D staple were at 17,850-18,500 yuan/ton cash in eastern China, and 3D medium length was offered at
17,650-18,000 yuan/ton. In USD-based market, transaction was lusterless in spot market. Suppliers indicated that
support was firm from costs. 3D tow was offered at $2.35-2.4/kg CFR, L/C 90 days, with high-end at $2.5/kg. Firm
deals were sparse.
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net June 2013 [AF]
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AF Listed Prices for Early July (yuan/ton)
Producer 1.5D Staple 3D Staple High-shrinkage 3D (27%)
3D Tow 3D Top
18,200
(northern, Jinyang)
17,750
(northern, inyang)
18,150
(northern, Jinyang)
17,800-18,000
(northern,Jinyang) Shanghai
Petrochem 18,150
(southern)
17,750
(southern) 18,150 (southern) 17,750 (southern)
—
Anqing PC 18,000 17,600 17,850 17,600 18,550
Sinopec
Qilu PC 17,700 17,500 17,650 17,550 18,500
Jilin Qifeng 18,500 18,000 18,400 18,500 19,500 Jilin CF
JiMont 18,500 18,000 18,400 18,500 19,500
PetroChina Daqing PC 18,100 17,700 17,800 18,200 18,900
Acrylic Fiber Imports by Origin (ton) Origin Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jan-May 2013
Japan 8,173 8,035 7,545 35,425
Chinese Taiwan 3,316 1,464 1,314 11,886
South Korea 726 1,206 1,808 5,357
Thailand 1,567 1,243 593 5,424
Turkey 1,657 518 183 14,259
India 539 452 149 1,922
Belarus 998 1,197 50 2,444
Others 1,231 1,642 1,215 10,847
Total 18,206 15,757 12,857 87,563
According to the General Administration of Customs, China imported 12,857 tons of acrylic fiber in May 2013, greatly down by 2,900 tons or 18.40% from April 2013 but up by 14.67% from 11,212 tons in May 2012.
By import origin, the top three by volume in May 2013 are Japan, South Korea and Chinese Taiwan, with their respective shares at 58.69%, 14.06% and 10.22%, followed by Thailand and Portugal, at 4.61% and 4.43% respectively.
In May 2013, China exported 1,185 tons of acrylic fiber, a significant increase of 782 tons, or 194.04%, from 403 tons in April 2013.
Acrylic Tow Imports by Origin (ton, $/ton) Apr 2013 May 2013 Jan-May 2013
Origin Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price
South Korea 368 2,539 667 2,346 2,195 2,474
Japan 396 3,529 770 3,584 4,299 3,421
Chinese Taiwan 437 2,806 571 3,007 5,556 2,739
Turkey 324 2,720 - - 10,862 2,287
Others 2,320 2,318 509 2,548 12,135 2,290
Total 3,845 2,553 2,516 2,915 35,047 2,511
Acrylic Staple Imports by Origin (ton, $/ton) Apr 2013 May 2013 Jan-May 2013
Origin Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price
South Korea 815 2,825 1,098 2,607 3,074 2,707
Japan 7,558 4,186 6,724 4,025 30,985 4,090
Chinese Taiwan 901 2,952 692 2,730 5,909 2,641
Thailand 853 2,500 593 2,483 3,743 2,417
Others 1,163 3,383 1,031 3,288 7,151 3,072
Total 11,290 3,779 10,139 3,618 50,861 3,572
Acrylic Top Imports by Origin (ton, $/ton) Apr 2013 May 2013 Jan-May 2013
Origin Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price
South Korea 23 2,900 43 2,900 88 2,900
Japan 82 4,690 52 5,200 142 5,331
Chinese Taiwan 126 3,871 51 4,124 422 3,245
Others 391 2,678 56 3,400 1,005 2,825
Total 621 3,192 202 3,944 1,656 3,150
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net June 2013 [AF]
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Operation Status of China’s Acrylic Fiber Producers
Producer Capacity
(kt/yr) Plant Operation Remark
Shanghai Petrochemical 150 100% T/A at southern unit from 23May for 10 days.
Anqing Petrochemical 70 100% Running with one line off in June, and to resume full
rate in July.
Qilu Petrochemical 60 100% Ramped down to 80% on 6 May, and to resume full rate in July.
Zhejiang Jinyong 60 Eliminated Closed since Sep 2008
Daqing Petrochemical 65 100% T/A plans from 8 Aug for 20 days.
Daqing Refining & Chemical 30 Eliminated Closed since Jan 2008
Fushun Petrochemical 55 Shutdown Shut on 7Jun 2012, with restart date pending
Jilin Qifeng 140 80% T/A from 15May, restart on 27May with 4 lines, and then ramped further up in late June.
JiMont 100 100% T/A from 10May to 27May, running at normal rate.
Hangzhou Bay Acrylic
Fiber 60 100% Shut down on 20Mar, and restarted in early April.
Qinhuangdao Alight 55 Eliminated Closed since May 2008
Ningbo Zhongxin Acrylic
Fibers 55 100% T/A from 2May to 18May.
Domestic producers continued to operate at reduced rate in June, but the overall run rate will start to rise now that
most maintenances have ended.
Week 1: The average run rate of the industry was at around 80%.
Week 2: The average run rate of the industry was at around 83%.
Week 3: The average run rate of the industry was at around 83%.
Week 4: The average run rate of the industry was at around 85%.
Domestic acrylic fiber production was greatly up in June. There are fewer producers running with reduced rates in
July, and the average run rate in the industry will rise to around 90%. So the total production in July will continue to
increase.
[Note: Domestic AF capacity totals 755 kt/yr, excluding that of the eliminated units.]
Supply & Demand in China
Domestic acrylic fiber market ranged bound for most of the time in June. In first half of the month, spot activity in
domestic market and the import trades in USD-based market increased, supported by steady offers from producers and
the growing restocking demand from the downstream. However, sales/production performance in acrylic fiber did not
improve notably amid the dull season. Producers continued to operate at reduced rate with normal inventory level. Later,
producers rolled over listed prices into early July, supporting market sentiment. In the meantime, several turnaround
plans were made for August, which might boost restocking demand. On the other hand, sales/production remained weak
due to ongoing weak trading in terminal market. Therefore, the market continued to be stable amid sluggish demand. At
the moment, 1.5D staple was mostly offered steady at 17,850-18,500 yuan/ton.
Production & Sales: The production in domestic AF industry in May 2013 dropped notably due to a slump in average
operation rate caused by extensive turnarounds. According to statistics, China's acrylic fiber production in May totaled
46.7 kt, down by 16.91% from 56.2 kt in April 2013 and down by 12.50% from 41.51 kt in May 2012. Sales were stable to
firm in May amid improving sentiment. Sales of domestic producers in May 2013 reached 48.92 kt, slightly up from 48.16
kt in April 2013 and up by 17.09% on year from 41.78 kt in May 2012. In May 2013, average sale/production ratio of
China AF industry was 104.8%, a large increase from 85.71% in April 2013.
Inventory: According to statistics, the inventory of the whole AF industry in China was at around 21.64 kt by the end of May 2013, down by 2.28 kt from 23.92 kt of April 2013 and slightly down by 3.39% from 22.4 kt of May 2012.
Apparent Consumption: In May 2013, AF production in China declined greatly on month, and import volume also fell sharply. Export was limited despite a big month-on-month rise. Therefore, apparent consumption was significantly down
this month. Apparent consumption in May 2013 totaled 58.36 kt, down by 18.42% on month from 71.54 kt in April 2013
and up by 12.14% on year from 52.04 kt.
(Note: Sales volume, production and inventory of Ningbo Zhongxi Acrylic Fibers were not accounted for in this
section.)
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net June 2013 [AF]
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Supply & Demand in China (kt)
Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jan-May 2013
Production 53.06 56.19 46.68 261.15
Import 18.21 15.76 12.86 87.58
Export 0.246 0.403 1.185 3.527
Apparent Consumption
71.02 71.54 58.36 345.2
Supply & Demand in Japan (kt)
Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jan-May 2013
Production 13.452 12.629 13.51 60.814
Import 0.039 0.034 0.157 0.421
Export 14.544 12.825 13.363 62.155
Apparent Consumption
-1.053 -0.162 0.304 -0.92
CCFEI Comment
Upstream Raw Materials: Global crude oil corrected up in June amid declining inventory and crisis in Syria, and reached intra-month high of $98.44/bbl on 18 Jun. Later in the month, however, oil prices were depressed by weak
economic condition in China and stronger US dollar, with NYMEX August futures hitting the bottom of $93.69/bbl on 21
Jun and ending at $95.5/bbl on 26 Jun. In domestic ACN market, prices were mostly stable amid stalemated sentiment
in June. Producers pegged offers steady, and spot trades were done in the range of 12,600-12,800 yuan/ton at East
China ports. The market could not move easily in either way due to the lack of clear direction.
Downstream Acrylic Yarn: Domestic acrylic yarn market continued to be quiet and stable in June. Trading was thin
due to a lack of support, dampening sales/production performances. Some produces were under considerable inventory
pressure, noting the slow offtake. And the profit margin at producers was slim in general. In Northern Jiangsu, woolen
acrylic yarn was partly offered at 23,700-23,800 yuan/ton. Despite stable cost, some producers had smaller cash flow
due to thin demand and weaker macroeconomic conditions, which might dampen sales and reduce production. In July, yarn
market will continue to be in dull season, and players will be mostly staying on the sidelines waiting for domestic demand
to pick up. However, the outlook for macroeconomic environment remains gloomy.
Supply: Turnarounds in domestic acrylic fiber market were coming to an end one after another, but the overall
operation rate remained low at 80%. Inventory was at a controllable level while major producers maintained stable
sales/production ratio. However, there were a few private producers that were running with relatively high inventory
which needed to be reduced. In USD-based market, trading activity was quite decent in early June, but buyers were still
operating with caution on weak demand, resulting in thin discussion. In May 2013, 12,857 tons of acrylic fiber was
imported into China, which was greatly down by 18.40% from a month ago. The total import in June is expected to be
relatively low as well. All in all, domestic producers continued to maintain stable sales/production and normal inventory by
running at reduced rate. The production in July is expected to increase on rising run rate. But imports are not likely to
surge on thin discussions.
Demand: Domestic acrylic fiber demand was still thin in June without real boost. Buyers were more willing to stock
up amid steady offers at producers and rising cost, which supported spot activity. However, downstream buying was
mostly done on a need-to basis due to a lack of terminal demand. And it is not likely to see large-volume purchase for
downstream restocking. Spot activity was still stable most of the time. Entering July, the market is expected to remain
stable. There may be more buying at the month start, but it is not likely to last later in the month.
CCFEI Comment: In June, domestic acrylic fiber market continued to be on flat range-bound. Producers had eased inventory pressure in May by extensive turnarounds, and maintained operation rate low in June in order to keep
sales/production ratio at a steady level. Therefore, the overall inventory was normal at major producers. In addition,
producers released June settlements and listed prices for early July stable, supporting market sentiment. There may be
active buying from the downstream in early July. But on demand’s side, acrylic yarn market was still quiet, and the
sales/production performance at producers was weak. Therefore, raw material purchase was done just to cover
immediate need, and buyers are not likely to make large-volume purchase in the short term. All in all, the operation rate
at producers goes back up in July, which is expected to result in increasing supply. And sales are also likely to improve,
supported by steady price trend. But the overall sales/production ratio is likely to be relatively stable in the short term.
Inventory will be kept at a controllable level, with a few producers still under high pressure. There won’t be considerable
improvement in spot trading as players are still waiting for downstream demand to pick up.
Unit: kt
Unit: kt
Production, Sales & Stock in China
0
50
100
Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Production A.consumptionSales Stock
Production, Sales & Stock in Japan
-505
1015
Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Production A.consumptionSales Stock
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net June 2013 [ABS]
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ABS China ABS Production Status in June 2013 (Unit: kt/yr)
Producer Capacity Major Grade Stock Run Rate Remark
LG Yongxing 800 121H Low 60-70% Run cut in late March
Zhenjiang Chimei 650 707K, 757K Low 80% 150 kt/yr capacity expansion on stream in
July 2012
Jilin Petrochem 390 0215A Low 30% Low run rate at new unit, and T/A at old
unit
Zhenjiang GPPC 280 D180, D190 Low 80% Low run rate
FCFC Ningbo 300 15A1, 12A1 Low 70-80% Closed in mid March for one-week T/A
Daqing Petrochem 100 750A Low 50% Run rate down to 50% in late May
Gaoqiao Petrochem 200 275, 8391 Low 60% 2 of 3 lines running in May
Liaotong Petrochem 200 8434，CH510 Low 30-40% One line of 150kt/yr unit in operation
Changzhou Shinho 75 AC800, AC810 Low maintenance Shut down in May 27 for maintenance,
Lanzhou Petrochem 50 301 Low 60% New lines in operation, old lines closed
Tianjin Dagu 400 DGMJ47 Low 30-40% T/A in Apr 2012, restart on 25 Apr.,
2012
In June, run rates of ABS units in East China were largely at around 70-80%, but some units remained closed. Operation rate of major units in Northeast China was low at 40-50%, with some units on turnarounds. Given the overall operation rate, it is assessed that ABS production in June stands roughly at 167,000 tons (only for reference).
ABS Market Situation in June 2013 Asia:
Week 1: Asian ABS was assessed up $5/mt week on week to $1,900/mt CFR China and remained flat over the same period at $1,920/mt CFR Southeast Asia as some producers reported having sold out of June cargoes and offering July at higher levels.
Week 2: Asian ABS was assessed up $10/mt week on week to $1,910/mt CFR China, as offers kept increasing amid higher raw material prices. The CFR Southeast Asia price was up $5/mt week on week at$1,925/mt. The market in Northeast Asia was quiet this week with China marketplaces shut for the Dragon Boat Festival holidays.
Week 3: Asian ABS rose $15/mt week on week to close at $1,925/mt CFR China and $1,940/mt CFR Southeast Asia on cost push. Feedstock styrene jumped $40/mt, closing at a four-month-high of $1,747/mt CFR China due to an outage at Jubail Chevron Philips' 770,000mt/year styrene plant in Saudi Arabia.
Week 4: Asian ABS fell $10 week on week to close at $1,915/mt CFR China and $1,930/mt CFR Southeast Asia. ABS producers cut offers -- which ranged between $1,920-1,960/mt CFR China -- by $10 from last week but said market sentiment was weak amid China's credit crunch. Europe:
H1 Jun: Northwest European ABS contract prices plateaued as early settlements converged on a rollover, market sources reported. Prices were assessed unchanged at Eur1,850/mt FD NWE for general purpose/natural grade product, Eur2,150/mt FD NWE for coloreds and Eur2,200/mt FD NWE for auto black material.
H2 Jun: Northwest European ABS spot prices were assessed unchanged at Eur1,850/mt FD NWE for GP/natural grade, Eur2,150/mt FD NWE for coloreds and Eur2,200/mt FD NWE for high heat grade material. GP/natural grade contract settlements for large convertors were concluded in a broad range of Eur1,650-1,750/mt FD NWE, Eur1,850-1,900/mt for smaller convertors, while medium-sized convertor settlements converged around the Eur1,850/mt FD NWE mark, market sources reported.
And ABS prices closed at $2,010-2,020/ton CFR NWE in Jun.
The US:
H1 Jun: The US ABS assessment remained unchanged at 122 cents/lb delivered rail car as demand in the market remained steady. Pricing continued to be talked in the low 120s cents/lb delivered.
H2 Jun: The US ABS assessment moved up by 1 cent to 123 cents/lb delivered rail car due to firming feedstocks. And injection grade ABS closed at 122-124 cents/lb (delivered, rail) in the USA in June.
Apparent Demand for ABS in China (Unit: ton, $/ton) Dec. 2012 Jan. 2013 Feb. 2013 Mar. 2013 Apr. 2013 May 2013
Import Volume 128,914 144,126 87,000 121,565 131,462 164,418
Av. Import Value 2,130 2,162 2,207 2,228 2,181 2,133
Disclaimer：Information contained in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither responsibility nor liability will be accepted by China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network (CCFEI) for commercial decisions claimed to have been based on the content of the report.
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