Active Defense as the Fourth Pillar of the Israeli Security Concept – The Lesson from Operation
Protective Edge
Meir Finkel, Yaniv Friedman, Dana Preisler-Swery
Introduction
The traditional Israeli security concept proposed three pillars
- deterrence, early warning and decisive defeat (hachra’a) - as the
basis for Israel’s ability to cope with the security challenges
surrounding the country.1 This concept, which had served as the
basis for Israeli thinking in the early years of the State, was found to
be lacking in the 1980s and 1990s. The missile threat on the Israeli
home front in the first Gulf War in 1991, and more so during the
Second Lebanon War in 1996, informally led to the addition, through
the Meridor Committee on Israel’s Defense Doctrine in 2007, of a
fourth, defensive pillar.2 Operations Pillar of Defense in 2012 and
Protective Edge in 2014 further demonstrated the centrality of
defense to Israel’s future security challenges.
However, a conceptual debate about the centrality of
defense within the security concept has yet to be carried out.
Despite the centrality of defense to the new concept, the requisite
combination of defense with the other components of the security
concept - deterrence, early warning, and decisive defeat - has not
yet been deeply examined. Furthermore, a comprehensive analysis
of the existing tensions and the required balance between defense
and offense and its implications has been lacking.
Operation Protective Edge will serve as the basis for our
discussion of the status of defense in the Israeli security concept.
During the operation, an active defense system was widely
employed, and we shall use this experience to examine the status of
1 Israel Tal, National Security: The Israeli Experience, Praeger Security International, 2000, pp. 67-88. 2 Dan Meridor, “Civil Defense as Part of the Israeli Security Concept,” in Elran Meir (Ed.) The Civil Front, INSS Memorandum No. 99, June 2009, pp. 15-16. [Hebrew]
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active defense within the wider concept of the defensive pillar of the
security concept.
This article will focus on these two key issues. First, we will
examine the balance between defense and offense within the
security concept, followed by an analysis of the debate between the
political and military echelons over the role of defense. Both issues
will be examined for contrast and comparison, over two-time
periods - before and during Protective Edge.
We will offer two main arguments. The first concerns the
relationship and balance between defense and offense. Operation
Protective Edge was a defensive strategy where the defensive
element was dominant, unlike the military concepts prior to the
Operation that favored the dominance of protection. The second
argument deals with the role of defense in the eyes of the political
and military echelons, following an examination of differences
between politicians who regarded defense as external to the IDF and
equal in value to offense and the IDF which regards defense as an
integral component of its role.
This article is divided into four parts. In the first we will
discuss the dilemmas arising from the addition of the defensive pillar
to the Israeli security concept; in the second we will examine prior
concepts about the relation between defense and offense versus the
reality during Protective Edge; in the third part, we will delve into the
gaps between the political and military echelons, prior to and during
Protective Edge; and in the fourth we will summarize and propose
several operational conclusions.
A methodological note - In this article, we will discuss two
aspects of defense. One is the “defensive pillar” as a new component
of the Israeli security concept, meaning defense of the home front
from all threats. The other deals with active defense - the air defense
array and active defense systems which are concerned with
thwarting the enemy’s rocket and missile capabilities and not with
repulsing enemy forces attempting to enter our territory.
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Dilemmas in Force Design Due to the Addition of a Defensive
Element to the Israeli Security Concept
An understanding that Israel’s security concept needed to
change led to the addition of the defensive pillar. This addition
generated a number of dilemmas due to a clash between the
defensive element and the other elements of the security concept,
as well as the normal tensions underlying any system undergoing
change and reorganization.
Organizationally, as with any system whose resources are
limited, the addition of defensive systems directly reduces other
units' budgets. Since the struggle over resources underlies any
organization or system, the decision to develop, produce, employ,
and maintain defensive systems was met with opposition from the
proponents of an offensive approach within the IDF, who were
apprehensive about budgetary issues as well as the shift in focus to
the new systems.
Conceptually, a debate developed among decision makers,
both politicians and military officers, about the influence of
defensive systems on the decisive defeat concept and its derivative
tool - offense - on the broader IDF security concept. Opponents of
the defensive pillar raised serious arguments concerning the
problematic nature of relying on defense. They argued that “a
defensive line is bound to break,”3 and that real damage would be
sustained to the decisive defeat and offensive principles. These
might well become secondary within the security concept, due to
the creation of a defensive capacity able to neutralize the offensive
capabilities of the opponent.4
An additional conceptual debate centered around the link
between deterrence and the defensive systems. A defensive
capability does contribute to Israel’s deterrence. However, a tension
3 IDF Ground Forces Command, Ground Forces Operations, January 2012, p. 5. [Hebrew] 4 Yiftah S. Shapir. “Lessons from the Iron Dome,” Military and Strategic Affairs, Volume 5, No. 1, May 2013, pp. 87-88.
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exists between deterrence and defense. Investing in defense5 may
be perceived by the other side as an attempt to avoid confrontation,
as an Israeli vulnerability. The proponents of this approach argue
that Israeli deterrence will always provide the best defense, and
investing in defensive means is a waste of resources.6
A third, difficult dilemma that stems from the addition of a
defensive pillar to the security concept is related to the flexibility of
the force. For a long time, the IDF preferred to invest in flexible
weapons systems, with both offensive and defensive characteristics.
The clearest example is the fighter jet, capable of carrying out both
offensive action - bombing enemy targets; and defensive missions -
intercepting enemy aircraft in Israel airspace. Israeli armored forces
are another good example. The anti-aircraft array is a defensive
weapon, while tanks, according to IDF doctrine, are an offensive one.
However, already in the 1950s, the IDF preferred to rely on tanks for
defensive purposes and not only for offensive ones, and thus
consolidated the idea of flexibility.7
Defensive and active defensive systems do not realize this
conceptual idea, since they normally lack the required flexibility to
balance between offense and defense.8 A large budgetary,
operational, and conceptual investment in a non-multifunctional
system required - and still requires - a fundamental change in
attitude to force design concepts and in the willingness of decision
makers to adopt such systems.
These dilemmas, which are related to the role of defensive
systems within force design continue to accompany decision makers
who must create the required balance between budgetary
5 See, for example, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s pronouncement: “A State cannot protect itself ad-infinitum,” in Ahia Rabed. “Olmert: A State cannot protect itself ad-infinitum,” Ynet, June 28, 2007, http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3418874,00.html [Hebrew] 6 Meir Elran and David Friedman. “Gas Masks: Toward the End of the Line?” INSS Insight, No. 487, November 24, 2013. 7 Zeev Elron. “The Armored threat and the IDF’s anti-tank array, prior to the Sinai War,” in Hagai Golan and Shaul Shai (eds). The Engines Thunder: 50 years to the Sinai War, Tel Aviv, Ma’arachot, 2006, p. 149. [Hebrew] 8 One can interpret the employment of the Vulcan cannon in the First Lebanon War as an exception.
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constraints, the different elements of the security concept and
flexibility for the military force. In the article’s next section, we will
examine the balance between offense and defense in earlier
concepts, as compared to the reality of Operation Protective Edge.
The Balance Between Defense and Offense in the IDF’s Operational
Concept Compared to Its Execution During Operation Protective
Edge
In this section, we will review the IDF’s official approach9
when dealing with the defensive pillar, and compare it to the orders
which were written and distributed during Operation Protective
Edge.
The IDF’s approach, as it was developed prior to Protective
Edge, reveals the crystallization of an understanding of the role of
9 The “IDF approach” mentioned here is a summation of the conceptual papers written over the last decade, in addition to the conclusions of the Meridor Committee on Israel’s Defense Doctrine.
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defense in relation to the security challenges. It supports the
centrality of defense in the changing battlefield and the need to
augment this element. On the other hand, this approach emphasizes
the importance of a balanced security concept, while doubly
emphasizing the roles of deterrence and decisive defeat. It
concludes that the defensive pillar accompanies offensive action and
in fact enables its implementation, therefore a necessary balance
must be maintained between offensive and defensive responses.
This approach makes clear the (current) need to continue
examining the defensive pillar’s influence on the other three pillars
of the concept - deterrence, early warning and decisive defeat. This
examination, which has not been satisfactorily performed, exists in
the shadow of the presumption that the role of defense is to enable
the realization of the offensive concept.
Furthermore, the secondary role of defense as a supporting
element to the offensive effort is perceived by some of the shapers
of this approach as not only secondary to the other components of
the security concept, but as a component which could actually
become a heavy burden. They fear that it could prevent further
development of the other components and damage, even weaken,
Israel’s offensive response.
In conclusion, underlying the IDF’s approach is the
assumption that the defensive pillar plays a lesser role than the role
it actually played during Protective Edge (as we will show below).
This approach even views the defensive pillar as a “stepson” of the
security concept, which was born to live in the shadow of its two
dominant brothers - deterrence and decisive defeat.
In reality, during Protective Edge, defense received a very
different type of treatment. The massive aerial bombardment and
limited ground maneuver which specifically targeted the offensive
tunnels gave the fighting the appearance of an offensive operation.
However, Protective Edge’s rationale was conservatively defensive,
with limited objectives, focused on returning calm to the south of
Israel and removing threats. Examination of the General Staff’s
operational idea demonstrates the same rationale - the defensive
effort as the priority, even during the offensive stage of the ground
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maneuver. This rational was also shared by the political echelon,
prior to and during the operation, whose main objective was to
thwart and prevent injury to the Israeli home front.
This examination exposes a growing gap concerning the
defensive element between the IDF’s concept and attitudes prior to
the operation and the actual approach adopted during Protective
Edge. Prior to the operation, the prevailing concept in the IDF viewed
the defensive pillar, in the best case, as an element supporting the
offensive, which was supposed to assist the other three pillars,
primarily the offensive (decisive defeat) one; or in the worst case as
a delaying factor which would hinder the proper employment of the
other elements. In fact, it is clear that during Protective Edge, the
defensive pillar acquired a central importance, even gaining
dominance over the other elements of the classic security concept.
Why was such a wide gap created between perceptions of
defense prior to the operation (as well as during other operations)
and its actual implementation?
There are three possible reasons, which in combination
created this gap. First, the lack of study of the influence of the
defensive pillar, a pillar that has strengthened over the years, on the
other security concept elements. Second, the hostilities that led to
the writing of the General Staff and conceptual position papers were
major operations, in which the offense was the primary component,
while defense played only a supporting role. An operation directed
at achieving limited objectives, such as Protective Edge, was not
mentioned in these position papers, and therefore the defensive
element, which was central to the operation, did not find expression
in them. The third reason relates to the IDF’s ethos. The offensive
ethos of the IDF is clearly expressed in these conceptual papers, as
part of an outlook that emphasizes the centrality of offensive force
design. In the current reality, this is not the sole consideration and
other non-military considerations play a significant role too.
Despite the gap between the defense concept and its
implementation, it seems that the centrality of defense within the
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Israeli security concept, and in the totality of its practical tools, is not
in doubt. Still, the question remains, why not develop defense to the
maximum?
A partial answer to this question was presented in the first
part of the present article, which noted the struggle over resources,
the balance among the security concept components, and flexibility
of force design, as considerable and counterbalancing factors against
the desire to invest greater resources in defense. However, it is
important to note two points within the IDF discourse, which hint at
dilemmas arising from apprehension about an over-reliance on the
defensive pillar.
The first is linked to the psychological-cognitive
characteristic associated with defensive capabilities and to a possible
failure of defense. We have already mentioned the basic tenet of
ground warfare that “a defensive line is bound to break,”10 as a basic
principle of defense. This accurate observation has one more
implication that is directly connected to the Israeli active defense
systems. Israeli expectations, both military and civil, as were
reflected in Operations Pillar of Defense and Protective Edge, are for
a perfect defense.
However, we should remember that there is a technological
aspect to Israel’s struggle with its opponents.11 It is entirely
conceivable that Israel’s enemies are working on a response to its
defensive advantage, and by finding a way to breach the defensive
systems, will strike, even partially, at its home front. Such a strike
may considerably reduce the effectiveness of Israel’s defensive
systems. There is an apprehension that an over-reliance on defensive
systems exposes Israel, given the sense that each blow to the home
front, even if only amounting to a few rockets and casualties, would
be considered a major failure.
A good demonstration of this was the media's attitude about
the closure of Ben Gurion Airport following the landing of a single
10 IDF Ground Forces Command, op. cit. 11 Edward Luttwak, Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace. Harvard University Press, 2002.
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rocket in a nearby town,12 and the resentment of the residents of the
Gaza border towns due to the IDF’s failure to intercept mortar
shells.13 Such a concept, which relies on the dominance of the
defense, may create an unachievable benchmark during a conflict,
thus generating public, psychological and operational
disappointment.
The second point is associated with the required balance
between defense, offense and decisive defeat in relation to the
length of a campaign. The success of the active defense systems in
Protective Edge, both the Iron Dome interceptions and the early
warning, identification and location system, provided political and
military decision makers with a longer period to make decisions, due
to the reduced impact on the Israeli home front. Massive damage to
the Israeli home front would have forced a shortening of the
campaign, involving a ground maneuver, a massive employment of
aerial strikes and wide collateral damage to civilians on the other
side.
This breathing room, unlike the situation in the Second
Lebanon War, had a real impact on the campaign’s length. An
examination of the strategic objectives of the operation raises an
essential question about the role of the defensive system in
influencing the operational rationale of the campaign. The limited
strategic objectives which did not seek to achieve a decisive defeat
pushed the offensive effort into second place and considerably
eroded the prevailing understanding of the need for a short
campaign. The apprehension that arises is connected to a desire to
balance defense and offense when determining the strategic
objectives of future operations, and with the need to conduct a
systemic analysis of the influences of all defensive systems on all
types of IDF operations.
12 Yiftah Shapir, “Rocket warfare in Protective Edge,” in Kurz, Anat and Brom, Shlomo, (Eds) The Lessons of Operation Protective Edge, INSS, November 2014, p. 45. 13 Oded Bar Meir, “In the Eshkol Regional Council: ‘Feeling like sitting ducks’,” Mynet, 21 August 2011, http://www.mynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-4111775,00.html. [Hebrew]
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The Gap Between the Earlier Attitude and the Operation’s Conduct
What we learn from this gap leads us to two complementary
conclusions. The first relates to the importance of integrating the
defensive pillar in Israel’s security challenges, the other tries to
balance the dominance of defense, as seen in Protective Edge, with
future challenges.
Assuming that operations such as Protective Edge - with
limited objectives, lacking a clear foundation for achieving decisive
defeat, and a goal of restoring calm - will continue to form a key part
of the totality of security challenges facing Israel in the near future,
then focusing on defense in general and on active defense in
particular is both vital and proper. Planning such a campaign (of
limited objectives) and its conduct will necessitate regarding this
pillar as a key component, alongside the other security concept
elements.
That said, it is important to look forward, beyond the last
campaign. Despite the success of the active defense systems, history
teaches us that over-reliance on defensive systems is dangerous. Our
opponents’ ability to breach these systems means that over-reliance
is problematic at best, and grossly irresponsible at worst.
The challenge is twofold. From the technological-
operational perspective, we must continue to maintain Israel’s
qualitative advantage and to increase it, to be ready for any new
challenge. From the conceptual-psychological perspective, we must
not be drawn into feeling that such operations (of limited objectives)
are the only challenge. We must continue discussing both all-out and
limited war doctrines in order to develop and strengthen them. We
must examine how, in such a scenario, offense can be turned into the
main element in the decision makers’ toolbox, in order not to
unsettle the important balance between offense and defense. This
challenge is not limited to the understanding of the military echelon.
It is validated by the need to explain these insights to the political
echelon and to emphasize the complexity and problematic nature of
over-reliance on defense.
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The Dispute Between the Political and Military Echelons Over Air-
Defense
Our primary argument here is about the existence of deep
conceptual gaps concerning defensive systems between the political
echelon and the IDF. While politicians regard the defensive element
as external to the IDF, a parallel track to the military-offensive and
political elements, the IDF regards defense as an integral component
of its function, to be employed in a similar manner to other
components of the military system, and devoid of any specific
importance justifying special treatment. These gaps create tensions
between the political and military echelons, regarding the type of
force design and employment to be adopted.
Even prior to Protective Edge, the political echelon placed
defense high on its list of priorities. The political echelon was the
motivating force behind the development of this capability, due to
its understanding of future challenges. It therefore gained a sense of
ownership over the system. In the statements of several defense
ministers during the years 2001-2010, and in an interview with Amir
Peretz, defense minister from 2005-2006, their perception of
defense as an important and central element is apparent: “We must
not be satisfied with offense only, but must create an integrated
defense… passive… plus Iron Dome which will guarantee the military
and political echelons completely new maneuvering space...”14 This
perception was also clearly reflected in actual force design and in the
political echelon’s will to emphasize defensive, especially active
defense systems, as significant element deserving of special
attention.15
14 Amir Peretz, an interview on the Knesset Channel, March 12, 2012, www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3LJsqI5F9k. 15 According to Amir Rapaport, in the IDF’s Multi-Year Plan Teuza, active defense is assigned the third priority (together with the Air Force) after cyberwarfare and intelligence. The ground forces are accorded the forth priority. Amir Rapaport, “The IDF’s Multi-Year Plan: force design or the dismantling of the ground forces,” in “The IDF’s Force design”, Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Colloquia on Strategy and Diplomacy, No. 28, Bar Ilan University, 2014, p. 24. [Hebrew]
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Throughout the operation one may identify the deep
involvement of the political echelon in decisions regarding active
defense and defense in general. The winds blowing in from the
political echelon regarding defense in previous years did not subside
with the beginning of Protective Edge. The importance ascribed by
the political echelon to defense and its different appreciation of
defense’s role was expressed in their involvement in decisions
regarding the employment of active defenses. The high regard and
priority given to defense was reflected in the association between
the successful employment of active defense systems in intercepting
Hamas’s rockets and missiles on the one hand, and with the political
echelon regarding this success as strategically thwarting Hamas’
objectives on the other. The strategic importance ascribed to these
interceptions became an attractive factor and greatly contributed to
the political echelon’s perspective of the defensive systems as being
external to the IDF.
The key point is connected to the political echelon’s position
on the balancing of offense and defense (as noted). The political
echelon regards defense as enabling a reduction in the need to take
the offensive and thus defense belongs to the political, not the
military, toolbox.
On the other hand, the IDF regards defense as an internal
element, similar to the other elements in its toolbox and to be
employed in the same manner. This IDF approach in not only
conceptual, but is reflected at the other military levels. This does not
relate solely to the technical-organizational level, dealing with
question of who employs the defense system and to whom it
belongs, but touches on a broader perspective of the system and
military action.
From the army’s viewpoint, since defensive tools belong to
the military, they are part of the military toolbox, not the political
echelon’s. Active defense is not a tool to be directly controlled by the
political echelon and decision makers, but a military one. The role of
defense from this perspective, is to support the offense and in effect
to enable it.
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This issue is associated with an operational issue of the
highest priority: “What is to be defended?” There is a built-in tension
between the natural political inclination to defend the population in
the home front and the military-professional inclination, which is
natural as well, to protect installations of strategic importance to the
military campaign. Assuming that overall resources are limited, and
that this is a practical, not a theoretical, dilemma, we are witnessing
here another aspect of the gap between the two perceptions.16
16 Yossi Arazi and Gal Perel quote Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, who stated as Head of the IDF Northern Command that: “The Iron Dome must be directed first and foremost at preserving the IDF’s offensive capability and not at defending civilians… it should protect Israel’s critical infrastructure, IDF bases, and military forces’ gathering points,” Yossi Arazi and Gal Perel. “Integrating Technologies to Protect the Home Front against Ballistic Threats and Cruise Missiles,” Military and Strategic Affairs, Volume 5, No. 3, December 2013, p. 94.
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Two questions arise from the gap between the positions and
perceptions of the political and military echelons: Why does the
political echelon aspire to directly control the active defense
systems? Why does the IDF ignore the dissonance between itself and
the political echelon?
As for direct control, there are some possible answers. First,
regarding the ownership aspect, the political echelon regards itself
as directly responsible for the very existence of active defense
systems, having forced them upon the army, having obtained the
funding from abroad and having pushed for their employment. This
bestows upon them, in their opinion, the right to control a tool that
they promoted. Second, this aspiration is associated with changes in
the nature of war. In the past, the IDF stood between the home front
and the enemy, but currently, in the age of missile and rocket wars,
this separation has disappeared. The defense array is what separates
citizens from rockets. Therefore, this array, brought to the army by
the political echelon, should be under the latter’s control.
This point is associated with the meaning of failure. If, in the
past, a tactical, even an operational, failure on the battlefield did not
immediately affect the home front, currently, a tactical failure in
intercepting a missile or a rocket leads directly to civilian casualties.
The direct link between the success or failure of the active defense
systems and citizens' lives has major political importance, and
politicians therefore wish to control these systems, which they
assume are easier to control than offensive systems. The offensive,
decisive defeat effort draws international shockwaves, e.g. the
Goldstone Report; it may entail heavy casualties; and may critically
undermine regional stability. Therefore, the political echelon wishes
to minimize it, preferring limited campaigns of a primarily defensive
nature. Such campaigns offer better control and supervision, and
politicians believe that they should be entrusted with these.
There are several possible answers to why the IDF ignores
this dissonance between itself and the political echelon. First, the
IDF’s offensive ethos is incompatible with the spirit of this defensive
approach of limited operations. Conflicting ethos are not only a
methodological problem, they also give rise to a cognitive
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dissonance that prevents one or both sides from understanding the
gap.
Second, the IDF’s force design and its major capabilities -
military units, weaponry and training- are all directed at an offensive
scenario. These existing capabilities directly address the existing
concept and prevent an understanding of the existing tension.
The third answer stems from an issue mentioned above, the
multifunctional nature of the force. The active defense array is an
anomaly in force design. It is not flexible, it cannot be employed for
both offensive and defensive purposes as most of the force
generated by the IDF.
The last reason is directly linked to the first, the offensive
ethos. The IDF does not believe in the possibility of achieving victory
in a war, campaign or a limited conflict through the defense. A victory
always entails an offensive. This cognitive gap, alongside the other
points raised above, feeds the existing dissonance between the IDF
and the political echelon.
How Can These Gaps Be Narrowed?
The response to these gaps should, first and foremost, be a
dialogue between the political and military echelons. Exposing these
dilemmas is a necessary condition for their resolution, but is not
sufficient. As noted, the military echelon should clarify to the
politicians the problematic character of an over-reliance on defense.
Both echelons should jointly study the characteristics of active
defense systems employment, especially the built-in tension
between defending critical national and military infrastructures,
which on the one hand is essential to the offense and on the other,
defending the home front and population centers.
Another issue to be clarified is the significance of overusing
defense during limited operations on the readiness for an all-out war
which may break out during such an operation. An overly intensive
employment of active defense systems, disregarding the proper
balance between these systems, during a limited operation, may
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hinder the tactical-operational as well as cognitive readiness for
more intense warfare. Clarifying this issue is critical to coping with
possible future situations in which a limited campaign on one front
may escalate into an all-out war on several fronts. At that point, all
basic concepts - from the readiness to embark on such a campaign
to the level of supplies and armaments, would require a complete
rethink.
Conclusion
Operation Protective Edge was the second operation, after
Pillar of Defense, in which active defense system were widely
employed. Despite the offensive employment of the air and ground
forces, the prevailing concept throughout the operation regarded
defense as the dominant element of the security concept. In fact, we
witnessed a new IDF concept that regarded preventing enemy
achievements as the first priority, no less than achieving our own
objectives. Using soccer terminology, we may say that the IDF
preferred a 1-0 win over a 5-1 victory.
Two major conceptual gaps were discussed in this article.
The first dealt with the relation between offense and defense.
Protective Edge had a defensive operational rationale. Preserving
the status quo, seeking to achieve victory by forestalling enemy
achievements, became the main operational idea. In such a
campaign, the defensive element gained dominance over the other
security concept elements, mainly offense and decisive defeat. This
was a totally different situation from the previous national-military
concept, which was aware of the importance of the defensive pillar,
but never granted it leadership, certainly not dominance, over the
other pillars.
The other gap is related to the role of defense in the eyes of
the political and military echelons. Due to the reasons noted above
- ownership of the defensive systems, the changing characteristics of
warfare, and the will to control these systems directly - the political
echelon regards the defensive element as being somewhat external
to the IDF and on the same level as the military-offensive and the
political elements. The IDF, on the other hand, regards defense as an
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internal element and therefore as part and parcel of the totality of
force design and employment. This gap creates many tensions in
force design and employment.
The main significance of the operation was in fact related to
the success of the defensive pillar. In contrast to previous experience
which demanded a rethink or a genuine process of drawing of
conclusions following a failure, the positive results of the active
defense systems encouraged us, and rightly so, to examine future
influences.
We can predict, with a certain degree of caution, that its
success will position defense as an equal, or perhaps as dominant,
among the security concept’s pillars. Therefore, we expect to see it
gaining influence among military and political decision makers.
However, due to the dangers of an over-reliance on defense, whose
risks were first exposed during the last operation, it is important to
preserve the dominance of the IDF’s offensive capabilities and to
further develop them.
The debate over the development and influence of the
active defense array, was until now focused on the capability itself. It
is our duty to develop an operational analysis of the totality of the
IDF’s capabilities, hand in hand with the political echelon, in order to
balance all of these elements, and to be prepared to optimally cope
with all the challenges waiting at the IDF and Israel’s door.
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