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International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)
Source: UNWTO
“Another Record Year for World Tourism”
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)
Source: UNWTO
“Start to 2007 Exceeds Forecasts”
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)
Source: UNWTO
“Full Steam Ahead for International Tourism”
Subprime mortgage defaults in the US
First injection of liquidity by central banks ($43bn in the US)
UK government takes over Northern Rock
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)
Source: UNWTO
“World tourist arrivals: from 800 million to 900 million in two years”
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)
Source: UNWTO
“Demand remains firm despite uncertainties”
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)
Source: UNWTO
“Rapid slowdown of international tourism growth”
US government takes over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Lehman Brothers go bankrupt
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)
Source: UNWTO
“International tourism challenged by deteriorating global economy”
The US enters recession
International Tourism Arrivals, World (% change over previous year)
Source: UNWTO
“Testing times for international tourism”
The UK (and most of Europe) enters recession
The Recession and Climate ChangeDoes the recession mean that
climate change is not a problem?we will meet our climate targets easier?
1990 2005 2012
7% 12%
The Recession and Climate ChangeDoes the recession mean that
climate change is not a problem?we will meet our climate targets easier?
1990 2005 2012
7% 12%
7-8% action still required
4-5% reduction from recession (???)
The Recession and Climate ChangeDoes the recession mean that
climate change is not a problem?we will meet our climate targets easier?
1990 2005 2050
7%87%
83-84% action still required
4-5% reduction from recession (???)
The Green Economy
Short term (e.g. to 2020)•Carbon taxes and emissions trading•High-carbon activities become more expensive•Low-carbon activities set to benefit•Some changes in behaviour
The Green Economy
Short term (e.g. to 2020)•Carbon taxes and emissions trading•High-carbon activities become more expensive•Low-carbon activities set to benefit•Some changes in behaviour
Long term (e.g. 2030 - 2050)
Either:•Technological change (biofuels, green electricity)
Or:•Major lifestyle changes•Substantial costs to carbon
Carbon PricesCurrently trading at around
$20 per tonne CO2
Carbon offsets at between $5 and $29.
Varying projections of prices in the future:
2020: $20 to $40 2050: up to $150 to $2002100: $200 +
Tourism and the Green Economy
Short term•Air travel becoming more expensive•Shift towards sustainability as an underpinning•Greater awareness among travellers•Possibly more offsetting
Long term
Either:•Technological change (biofuels in air transport, electric cars)
Or:•Major modal changes
•rail rather than road for long-distance land travel•moves from air to rail where feasible