Adaptation of forests · IPCC Assessment Report 4 WGII, Chapter 4 ... Figure 11.13: Percent snow...

Adaptation of foreststo climate change

Andreas FischlinCoordinating Lead Author

Chapter «Ecosystems», WG II, Fourth AssessmentReport IPCC

Systems Ecology, Institute ofIntegrative Biology (IBZ),Environmental Sciences

Contents

1. Current climatic trends

2. Future climate change

3. Impacts on forests

4. Adaptation and forests

5. Conclusions

10.Oct.207

3

Andreas Fischlin — IPCC Coordinating Lead Author — ETH Zurich

Working Group II -Fourth AssessmentReport of IPCC

• 48 coordinatinglead authors

• 173 lead authors• 356 authors• 45 review editors• 910 expert

reviewers• 4 years work• 70 countries• 1 technical

support unit (~10experts)

10.Oct.207

4


• 2 CLAs: Andreas Fischlin, Guy F. Midgley• 8 LAs: Jeff Price, Rik Leemans, Brij Gopal, Carol

Turley, Mark Rounsevell, Pauline Dube, JuanTarazona, Andrei Velichko

• 19 CAs with outstanding conributions fromJacqueline de Chazal and Rachel Warren

• 2 REs• Hundred of expert reviewers, scientists etc.• >3200 scientific articles reviewed• 915 cited

IPCC Assessment Report 4 WGII, Chapter 4

«Ecosystems, their properties,goods, and services»

10.Oct.207

5


Key steps in preparation of Working Group II (science) componentof Fourth Assessment Report

WORKING GROUP ISESSION

LEAD AUTHORS MEETING

TS / SPM

DRAFTING

INFORMAL REVIEW

EXPERT REVIEW

GOVERNMENT REVIEW

2004 2005 2006 2007

MarrakeshScoping Meeting

ViennaXXI

1

Vienna

2

Merida

3

Cairns

4

Capetown Brussels

Egham

Brussels

XXIII

5

Capetown

1 CurrentClimate Change

Trends

10.Oct.207

7


Greenhouse Gases

Heat pumps, cleaningetc.

CFCsetc.

FertilisationN2O

Livestocks, Landfills,Rice cultivation, Gaspipe leakages

CH4

Fossil fuels,Deforestation (Landuse change)

CO2

CO2

CH4

N2O

After Figure SPM.1 (IPCC, 2007.Summary for Policy Makers WGI)

10.Oct.207

8


Period °/10a

Observed Temperatures

150 0.045±0.012

100 0.074±0.018

50 0.128±0.026

25 0.177±0.052

11 out of 12 years (1995-2006) are warmest ever

measured!Ranking 12 warmest:

1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

After Figure TS.6 (IPCC, 2007.Technical Summary WGI)

10.Oct.207

9


Smoothed anomalies (%) over continents

Decrease

Increase

Changes in Precipitation (1900-2005)

After Figure 3.14 (Trenberth et al., 2007. IPCC WGI)

2 FutureClimate Change

10.Oct.207

11


The future can t be predicted……only projected!

Figure TS.32: Multi-model means of surface warming (IPCC, 2007. Technical Summary WGI)

10.Oct.207

12


Scenario differences become morepronounced as we advance in time

Figure TS.28: Projected surface temperature changes (IPCC, 2007. Technical Summary WGI)

10.Oct.207

13


Extremes and Growing Season

Figure 10.19: Changes in extremes - multi-model means (Meehl et al., 2007. IPCC WGI)

10.Oct.207

14


• Rain increases at high latitudes (very likely);

• Rain decreases at low latitudes (likely);

Future: Changes in Precipitation

Figure SPM.7: Relative changes in precipitation 2090-2099 vs. 1980-1999 (IPCC, 2007. Summary for Policy Makers WGI)

10.Oct.207

15


Regional Projections - E.g T,R Europe

Figure 11.5: Temperature (T) and precipitation (R) changes over Europe (Christensen et al., 2007. IPCC WGI)

10.Oct.207

16


Regional Projections - E.g. Spring Snow

Figure 11.13: Percent snow depth changes in March over North America (Christensen et al., 2007. IPCC WGI)

% Change insnow depth

IPCC SRES A2~2041-2070

relative to1961-1990

10.Oct.207

17


“Hadley center” GCM

If we were to stabilize the concentrations (not emissions) of all GHG and aerosols at

present levels tomorrow, here’s the kind of thing that would occur.

We are here

Long term perspective - oftenoverlooked - highly relevant for forests

3 Impacts onForests

10.Oct.207

19


««EcosystemsEcosystemsTheir properties, goods and services»Their properties, goods and services»

Fischlin Fischlin et alet al., 2007. In IPCC WGII Fourth., 2007. In IPCC WGII FourthAssessment ReportAssessment Report

10.Oct.207

20


10.Oct.207

21


10.Oct.207

22


10.Oct.207

23


10.Oct.207

24


10.Oct.207

25


10.Oct.207

26


10.Oct.207

27


ÖkosystemeÖkosysteme

10.Oct.207

28


10.Oct.207

29


10.Oct.207

30


10.Oct.207

31


10.Oct.207

32


On the role of terrestrialecosystems (including forests)

Over the course of this century, netcarbon uptake by terrestrialecosystems is likely to peak beforemid-century and then weaken oreven reverse, thus amplifyingclimate change.

(high confidence)IPCC, 2007. SPM WGII, p.11

10.Oct.207

33


More Carbon Stored in Ecosystems

Figure 4.1: Ecosystems addressed - C stocks, areal extent (Fischlin et al., 2007. IPCC WGII)

10.Oct.207

34


More Carbon Stored in Ecosystems

Yedoma - in permafrost entrapped undecomposed organic material - 30,000 years old grass roots (Zimov et al., 2006)

10.Oct.207

35


Relevance?

10.Oct.207

36


Heat wave trends - E.g. Europe

Anomalies from mean summer temperatures (JJA)

2003

10.Oct.207

37


Increasing Trends in Fire Frequencies

Section 4.4.5(Fischlin et al.,

2007. IPCC WGII)

10.Oct.207

38


Recent trends forest pests - E.g. Canada(Dendroctonus ponderosae, Col., Scolytidae)

Mountain pine beetleSection 4.4.5

(Fischlin et al.,2007. IPCC WGII)

10.Oct.207

39


Some DGVM Results - LPJ A2 HadCM3

Figure 4.3 (a): Projected appreciable changes (>20% perspatial unit transformed) in terrestrial ecosystems by 2100relative to 2000 (Fischlin et al., 2007. IPCC WGII)

10.Oct.207

40


Ex. subalpineForests

Fischlin & Gyalistras, 1997. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. - Hafner, 2000.

10.Oct.207

41


…and temperate forests

Fuhrrer, Beniston, Fischlin, Frei, Goyette, Jaspte &, Pfister, 2006. Clim. Change, 79: 79-102

10.Oct.207

42


Sink service at risk

Figure TS.6:Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of global mean annualtemperature rise IPCC, 2007. Technical Summary WGII

10.Oct.207

43


Sink service at risk

Figure 4.2: Simulated net carbon exachange between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere(Fischlin et al., 2007. IPCC WGII)

> 2.5 °

+3°

+2°

10.Oct.207

44


From Figure SPM.2(IPCC, 2007. Summary for Policy Makers by Working Group II AR4 IPCC)

Summary

Emissions from ecosystems(incl. forests)

4 Adaptationand Forests

10.Oct.207

46


• Ecosystems resiliencemattersSome adaptation hasbecome unavoidableAdaptive adaptation isneededFoster diversity to enhanceresilience

10.Oct.207

47


Future Resilience of Ecosystems

The resilience of many ecosystems islikely to be exceeded this century by anunprecedented combination of climatechange, associated disturbances (e.g.,flooding, drought, wildfire, insects,ocean acidification), and other globalchange drivers (e.g., land use change,pollution, overexploitation of resources).(high confidence)

IPCC, 2007. SPM WGII, p.11

10.Oct.207

48


Forests are crucial in the clobal C-cycle

Atmosphäre 760 GtC

Böden 2011 GtC Ozeane39'000

GtCBiosphäre

120 110

50

60

7.7

92.3 90

1.66.3

0.8

0.2

Anthropo- sphäre

Lithosphäre

vw vw vw vwvw vwvw vw vwvw vw vwvw vwvw vwvwvw vw vw vw vw vw vw vw vw vw vw vw vw vw vw vw vw vwvw vwvw

466GtC

Insekten-frass

Wald-brand

?

Fischlin, 2000

10.Oct.207

49



10.Oct.207

50


Some Climate Change Now Unavoidable

IPCC, 2007

Unavoidable Warming:

By 2005: +0.74°C

By 2100: +0.6°C

Total: +1.34°C (Minimum!)

IPCC 2007 (In IPCC AR4 WGI SPM)

Figure TS.32: Multi-model means of surface warming (IPCC, 2007. Technical Summary WGI)

10.Oct.207

51



10.Oct.207

53


Limiting Warming to Max of 2°C

450

Required reduction of GHG

emissions by Annex I

countries:

By 2020: -25% .. -40%

By 2050: -85% .. -95%

(Gupta et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 WGIII)

Figure SPM.8: Global warming and GHG stabilization levels (IPCC, 2007. Summary for Policy Makers WGIII)

10.Oct.207

54


Recent emission trends

Raupach et al., 2007. PNAS

5 Conclusions

10.Oct.207

56



10.Oct.207

57


Ecosystems Services

10.Oct.207

58


Valuation of Ecosystem Services

Costanza et al., 1997. Nature, 387: 253-260

Trillions (=1012 =Tera) US $

16 33 54

18

Global GDP 1997

Economic value of services providedannually by biosphere:

10.Oct.207

59


Climate Convention (UNFCCC) - Article 2

UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change) after WorldSummit in Rio 1992.

Since 1994 in force, ratified by 189 Parties (e.g. USA as 4th.)!

The ultimate objective of this Convention .... is to achieve, .…stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphereat a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenicinterference with the climate system.

Such a level should be achieved within atime-frame sufficient:

• to allow ecosystems to adapt naturallyto climate change

• to ensure that food production is notthreatened, and

• to enable economic development toproceed in a sustainable manner.

10.Oct.207

60


Ecosystem s resilience exceeded

2-3 °

Conflict with Article 2 of UNFCCC:

The ultimate objective of this

convention .. is .. stabilization of

greenhouse gas concentrations in

the atmosphere at a level .. to allow

ecosystems to adapt naturally…

Figure TS.6:Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of global mean annualtemperature rise IPCC, 2007. Technical Summary WGII

10.Oct.207

61


High productivity if diversity high

Tilman et al., 2001. Science, 294: 843 -845

10.Oct.207

62


+30%

1000 2000

Thanks for your attention

www.ipcc.ch www.sysecol.ethz.ch

[email protected]

Date post:	04-Aug-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	0 times
Download:	0 times

Adaptation of forests · IPCC Assessment Report 4 WGII, Chapter 4 ... Figure 11.13: Percent snow...

Documents