Adaptation Police Framework: Perspective in the Context of Second

National Communication – Central American project and other

initiatives

Luis R.Paz CastroE.mail: lpaz@met.inf.cu

Signature Ratification Due Date13-June-92 05-January-94 13-June-92 05-January-94 05-April-97 05-April-97

National Focal Point

PRESENTATIONPRESENTATION OF CUBAOF CUBA

CUBA UNDER UNFCCCCUBA UNDER UNFCCC

Ministry of Science, Technology Ministry of Science, Technology and Environmentand Environment

Signature Ratification Due Date13-March-99 30-April-02 13-March-99 30-April-02 30-July-02 30-July-02

National Focal Point

PRESENTATIONPRESENTATION OF CUBAOF CUBA

CUBA AND THE KYOTO PROTOCOLCUBA AND THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

Ministry of Science, Technology Ministry of Science, Technology and Environmentand Environment

Energía, minas e industria química

Uso de la tierra

Agricultura, bosques y producción azucarera

Cuba Government

Host Ministry

Ciencia, Tecnología y Medio Ambiente

Coordination

Institute of Meteorology

Technical teams

GHG Inventory

Vulnerability and adaptation Mitigation

Sectors Relaciones exteriores

Transporte

Pesca

Construcción y producción de cemento

National Climate Change GroupNational Climate Change Group

Recursos hídricos

Instituciones académicas y de investigación

ONGs ambientales

National National CommunicationCommunication

Executive Summary. Chapter 1. General introduction. Chapter 2. National circumstances. Chapter 3. GHG Inventory for 1990 and 1994. Chapter 4. Mitigation options. Chapter 5. Climate variability. Impacts and

adaptation. Chapter 6. Vulnerability and adaptation to

Climate change Chapter 7. Systematic Observation. Chapter 8. Education and public awareness. Chapter9. Possible projects.

National CircumstancesNational Circumstances Cuba is an archipelago composed by two major island (Cuba and Isla de la Juventud) and 1600 keys.

Total area: 110 860 km2

Estimated population in 1998: 11 139 900 inhabitants

Population Density: 100.5 hab/km2

Cuban climate is tropical seasonally wet.

Mean Temperature: 24°C-26°C

Mean annual rainfall: 1 300 mm.

Tropical cyclones are one of the more important events.

Climate variability. Impacts Climate variability. Impacts and Adaptationand Adaptation (1) (1)

Main considerations.

• Any change in future climate will be superimpose to climate variability.• The impacts of climate variability are actual problems. • Adaptation to climate variability is the beginning of the anticipated adaptation process.

Climate variability. Impacts and Climate variability. Impacts and Adaptation Adaptation (2)(2)

Centella et al (1997) indicate that the climate in Cuba shown important variations in the mid of 70s. The variations are characterized by:

• An increase of annual mean temperature (0.5°) and minimum temperature (1.4°C), with a significant reduction of diurnal range of temperature.• Increase of winter rainfall.• Increase of extreme events frequency including drought.• Increase of El NIÑO event influences and impacts.

This variations are consistent with the IPCC reports and results from other research for atmospheric circulation developed in Cuba.

Climate variability. Impacts and Climate variability. Impacts and Adaptation Adaptation (3)(3)

STRATEGIC ACTIONS• Institutional capacity to develop climate

prediction and early warning systems (including more research on climate variability and the improve of the observation systems).

• Institutional capacity to develop climate aplications (Human health, agriculture, water resources)

• Institutional capacity to anticipate the potentials impacts of extreme events (a more strong centralized system of response. Mainly focused on human lives).

Evaluated SectorsEvaluated Sectors

Time FrameTime Frame30 year-periods centered on 2020, 2030, 2050 and 2100

Vulnerability and Adaptation to Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change (1)Climate Change (1)

Freshwater resources Coastal Zones and Marine Resources Agriculture and Forests Human Health Human Settlements and Land Use Changes Wildlife and Biodiversity

Climate change scenarios were derived by scaling General Circulation Model outcomes with simple climate model results (MAGICC/SCENGEN approach). The scenarios were based on: IS92a and KyotoA1 emission scenarios. IPCC range and mid value for climate sensibility. Three GCMs spatial patterns.

Future Climate (i.e. 2100) could be:From 1.6 to 2.5°C warmer than present.Between -10 and 19% less or more rain than present.Sea level rise from 20 to 95 cm.

Vulnerability and Adaptation to Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change (2)Climate Change (2)

Impacts overview (I)Impacts overview (I)

Sea level rise could cause main climate change impacts in Cuba. It could:

Reduce the availability and quality of freshwater.

Affect negatively a 3.5 % of country area. Increase the vulnerability of 185 Human

settlements and 5 084 376 inhabitants. Strongly affect Mangrove and coastal

ecosystems.

Vulnerability and Adaptation to Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change (3)Climate Change (3)

Impacts overview (II)Impacts overview (II)Even if rainfall increases, warming could favors the evaporation and a more or less enhancement of aridity process. The main associated impacts could be: Reduction of forestry areas. Loss of biodiversity. More frequent and intensive drought process. Crops yields decrease. Reduction of the area for agricultural activities.

Vulnerability and Adaptation to Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change (4)Climate Change (4)

Adaptation. General overviewAdaptation. General overview Adaptation strategies are oriented to ensure the

following:Protection and better use of water resources. Increasing

the efficiency in water resource management.Reduce the vulnerability of beach and mangroves

ecosystems by means of protection and conservation measures.

Conservation and protection of forestry resources. Increasing the forest cover.

Improve the agricultural system, increasing the use of climate information and oriented agricultural climate predictions in design and planning.

Continuing improvement of human settlements and human health system, incorporating the climate research in the planning strategies of this sectors.

Lessons and LimitationsLessons and Limitations

• Institutional capacity help the process, but it could be improved. Additional funds to improve the observation systems and institutions.

• A better understanding of actual climate variability is important for adaptation process. More research, technical capacity and funds are required.

• Integrated V&A assessment is a key aspect of the process that should be addressed in the next steps. Capacity Building.

• Adaptation and mitigation costs must be deeply assessed. Capacity Building

• The future process must improve the integration of national programs on climate change, desertification and biodiversity. Capacity Building and additional financing

• Education and public awareness could be improved. Incorporation of stakeholders and key sectors.

APF Structure APF Structure

En

gage

st

akeh

old

ers

Increase adaptive capacity

1. Scope project

2. Assess currentvulnerability

3. Characterize future

climate-related risks

4. Develop adaptationstrategy

5. Continueadaptation process

PROJECT RLA/01/G31/A/1G/99

Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to Climate Change in Central America, Mexico

and Cuba

The region will serve as the pilot region for elaborating and applying an APF for preparing adaptation strategies, policies and measures.

PROYECT CUB/03/009/01/34

Development and Adaptation to Climate Change

Components:

• To test the APF in selected rural areas in Cuba and Dominican Republic;

• Scientific study about the risks relating to drought, climatic extreme event that affect frequently both countries, and;

• To strengthen the links with the regional initiative: “Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean Region” (ACCC).

IPF

Strategy of the Project

Capacity building at local and regional level to face the risk of climate variability and the climate change with special regard to drought

• To motive and to capacitate of provincial, municipal and local leaders in order to facilitate the planning and intervention;

• To enhance technical capacity to generate relevant information and developing early warning systems;

• To establish linkage with others projects in order to maximize the resources available and enhance the impacts;

• To enhance the linkage with ACCC through seminars, workshops and exchange of information.

COORDINATION

CUBA

Instituto deMeteorología

Instituto de Planificación

Física

CITMA MEP

REPUBLICADOMINICANA

Oficina deMeteorología

SecretaríaAgricultura

SMARN

General coordination UNDP-INSMET

Location of the Case Study, coastal zone of Las Tunas province

Sur de Guantánamo

Risk of droughtRisk of drought

Very high

Area of the Case StudyArea of the Case Study

3 municipalities: Manatí, Puerto Padre and Jesús Menéndez

• Total area 2 771 km2

• Population 180 000 inhabitants• Population density 68 inhabitants / km2

Types of survies:Types of survies:

Individual interviewIndividual interviewIndividual interviewIndividual interview

• individual individual • farmersfarmers• key informingkey informing

Group InterviewGroup InterviewGroup InterviewGroup Interview• farmersfarmers

Open interviewOpen interviewOpen interviewOpen interview

Governmental Governmental representatives, representatives, socioeconomic sectors, socioeconomic sectors, scientific institutions, etc. scientific institutions, etc.

Members of the team

Interview to a farmer group

Presentation the Project to Local Authorities, Las Tunas, October 13,

2003

SINERGIES AMONG THE PROJECTS

CUB/03/009/01/34

• Assessment of climate evolution.

• Preliminary test of APF

• Regional climate Model

CIDA-CCCDFUoT & INSMET

• Equipments

• Materials and methods for training

RLA/01/G31/1G/99

• Complementation of Climate scenarious

• capacitation of stakeholders

• Adaptation technologies.

General considerations1. Adaptation is an immediate action from which

we can extract the necessary teachings to adjust to socioeconomic system in a progressive way.

2. To learn from the past and the current situation it can mean a better preparation for the future.

3. Adaptation is a process that should begins with reduction of vulnerability to current climatic variability.

4. Adaptation to climate change should incorporate a better understanding of the different actors of a country; and education of its inhabitants should be part of the adaptation strategy.

5. The APF is a good tool to incorporate the population, and increase the education and public awareness on climate change issues.

General considerations…

General considerations….

7. We understand that a single country doesn’t have all the capacity and experience to develop all the necessary actions for the adaptation to climate variability and climate change.

8. The knowledge there are not borders and the cooperation is the best strategy to reach the success.

!Fin y Gracias!End and Thanks!