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Adaptation toAdaptation toClimate Change in Climate Change in Livestock sector of Livestock sector of MongoliaMongolia
Batima P., Shiirev-Adya., Bat B., Bayarbaatar L., Tserendash S.
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
MethodologiesMethodologies Long list Long list Short listShort list AnalysisAnalysis DiscussionsDiscussions
ContentsContents
MethodologiesMethodologies
expert judgmentexpert judgment adaptation screening matrixadaptation screening matrix simulation of animal behaviorsimulation of animal behavior economic analysis of intensive farm economic analysis of intensive farm
development development adaptation decision matrixadaptation decision matrix
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Expert judgmentExpert judgment
Long listLong list Pasture and feedPasture and feed Livestock herding practiceLivestock herding practice LivelihoodLivelihood Food supply of big citiesFood supply of big cities Research on climate changeResearch on climate change
AdaptationAdaptation screeningscreening matrixmatrix
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Pasture and feed:19 Livestock herding practice: 15 Livelihood: 14 Food supply of big cities: 3 Research on climate change: 2
AdaptationAdaptation screeningscreening matrixmatrix
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Criteria Opportunity Priority Effectiveness Impact on environment Cost Barrier
Adaptation options Priority Target of Opportunity
Effective-ness
Impact on Environ-
mentCost Barrier
Food supply
Develop intensive dairy farming High High High Low High Medium
Develop intensive farming for meat High High High Low High Medium
Develop intensive farming other than livestock High High High Medium High Medium
CC
Establish climate change monitoring High High High None Medium None
Develop climatic criteria for dzud and drough High High High None Medium None
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
AdaptationAdaptation screeningscreening matrixmatrix**
Short listShort list Pasture and livestock herding management
Assessment of the pasture carrying capacity at soum level, Ecological Classification of pasture for livestock herding, Pasture classification by season Develop management concepts for Livestock herding by socio-economic
regions, Develop management system for animal productivity improvement Extension of grazing time
Feed Preparation of supplementary feed: plant and non-plant Encourage to reserve irrigated hay area, Encourage to reserve irrigated pasture,
Livelihood Develop alternative income source Awareness raising and education at all level
Food supply Develop intensive dairy farm near to big cities, Develop intensive farm for meat production near to big cities,
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Pasture capacityPasture capacity
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Pasture Seasonal CampingPasture Seasonal Camping
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
H- autumn camping, X-spring camping, 3-Summer camping, Q- winter camping,
movement direction
Pasture Seasonal CampingPasture Seasonal Camping
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Socio-Economic regionsSocio-Economic regions
Table 1.Ewe weight changes in increased (10,20,30%) pasture peak biomass
(HADCM3,)
Changes of peak biomass,% 10 20 30 Ecosystem
Impact results 2020
Forest steppe -0.31 -0.17 -0.09 -0.02
Steppe -0.28 -0.10 -0.01 0.18
High mountains -0.03 -0.06 0.02 0.12
Gobi -0.11 0.05 0.15 0.22
2050
Forest steppe -0.78 -0.48 -0.32 -0.08
Steppe -0.46 -0.37 -0.23 0.02
High mountains -0.34 -0.28 -0.12 0.06
Gobi -0.51 -0.26 0.05 0.18
2080
Forest steppe -2.38 -1.41 -1.04 -0.61
Steppe -1.99 -1.42 -1.00 -0.70
High mountains -1.89 -1.89 -0.76 -0.50
Gobi -1.28 -1.61 -0.88 -0.18
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Simulation of animal behaviorSimulation of animal behavior vs. vs.
Supplementary feedSupplementary feed
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
2020 2050 2050Forest steppe 1.2 1.6 2.1Steppe 1.8 1.8 2.4High mountain 0.8 1.2 1.5Gobi-Desert 0 0 0.4
2020 2050 2050Forest steppe 3 3.4 3.6Steppe 3.3 4.2 4.6High mountain 1.9 2.3 2.8Gobi-Desert 0 0 2.1
Supplementary feedSupplementary feed
2080
2080
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Preparation of Traditional supplementary feedPreparation of Traditional supplementary feed
Traditionally: hand prepared feed Plant Non-plant
Have prepared hand out on Plant Non-plant
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Intensive farmingIntensive farming
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
0 25 50 75 100 125
Agro-climate Soil Landscape Vegetation Climate (max, min and average tº, soil moisture…)
Economic parameters Expenditure Income…….
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
DiscussionsDiscussions
Three level workshop: Local workshop Workshop at scientific community Workshop at Ministerial level
Present at Permanent Committee for Food and Agriculture of the Parliament
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Local workshopLocal workshop
Current adaptation Current adaptation practicepractice
Current adaptation Current adaptation practicepractice
At herder’s levelAt herder’s level
Output of the workshopsOutput of the workshops
Were very effective in terms of Improving the understanding of climate change at
local level and disseminate the research information
Discussing the proposed adaptation options at local level and get feedback from local community
Almost all the adaptation option that was prepared by the expert team have been accepted by the local experts as well as herders
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity
-2.50
-1.50
-0.50
0.50
1.50
2.50
3.50
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-2.00-1.50
-1.00-0.500.000.50
1.001.502.002.50
3.003.50
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
National Eastern Central Khangain-mountain WesternPolicy 3 3 3 3 3Institutional 2 1 1 1 1Technical 2 2 2 1 1Financial 2 1 1 1 1Resource 2 3 1 2 1Infrastructure 2 2 3 2 1Score 13 12 11 10 8
Adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
(Socio-economic adaptive capacity)(Socio-economic adaptive capacity)
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Institutional FrameworkInstitutional Framework
Ministry for Nature and Environment
7 Departments 2 Agencies
NAMHEM
IMH
Monitoring
Ministry of Food and Agriculture
2 Departments
Livestock
Academy of science
Institute of livestock
Pasture plants
• institutions are there• no linkage
Adaptation decision matrixAdaptation decision matrix
Adaptation measures Criteria: Socio-economic Criteria Weight Prioritize
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Some measuresSome measures
• IMH: predictions• Long term prediction for winter: October-
March• Prediction of pasture resources• Prediction on pasture capacity• Prediction of ewe weight for November-April
AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004
Thank you for your attention!