Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT. ICRISAT’s strategy for climate change adaptation in the SAT: ESA as a case study (1) Background - Current and future climate-induced risk in the SAT (2) Against this background, our evolving interaction with partners on climate risk. (i) Resulting in collaborative projects and …. (ii) .. an Operational Research Strategy (2008-2015) (iii) Some tools we use (iv) Testing a ‘Hypothesis of Hope’ using APSIM
Transcript
Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT.
ICRISAT’s strategy for climate changeadaptation in the SAT: ESA as a case study
(1) Background - Current and future climate-induced risk in the SAT
(2) Against this background, our evolving interaction with partnerson climate risk.
(i) Resulting in collaborative projects and ….(ii) .. an Operational Research Strategy (2008-2015)(iii) Some tools we use(iv) Testing a ‘Hypothesis of Hope’ using APSIM
Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
Current and future climate risks in the SATCurrent Climate Risks
- Rainfed agriculture – 90%of production of staples
- Variable rainfall and production uncertainty
- Farmers vulnerable tocurrent climatic shocks
- They are risk-averse andunwilling to invest
- Rain-fed agriculturein SAT is stagnating
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Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
Current and future climate risks in the SATFuture trends• Increase in extreme events - agriculture more risk prone
• Analyses of historical data confirm increased temperature, but…
• changes in rainfall patterns still hard to detect
• Nature, rate and extent of change still uncertain.
Summary output from 21 General Circulation Models (IPCC 2007)
62- 4- 9- 124.83.73.42.91.9S. Africa
251172- 34.33.43.22.51.8E. Africa
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Annual Precipitation Response by end of 21st century (%)
Annual Temp. Response by end of 21st
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Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
2004 - 2008: In depth interactions with partners
2004/05 - A NEPAD-endorsed consortium for SSA of 16 Nat., Reg. and International organizations
2007 - The Climate Change Challenge Programme (now approved)
2007/08 - Co-edited special edition of AGEE (ICRAF+ ICRISAT)
2008 - ICRISAT web page on climate change adaptation.
http://www.icrisat.org/gt-aes/Adaption.htm
Two important outcomes of this series of dialogue……….
Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
First important outcome:-
• 11 ‘climate risk management projects’ developed on Africaand Asia
• 7 serve the region of Eastern and Southern Africa.
• We are learning lessons fromthese projects
Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
Some lessons learned in ESA:
(a) Climate- driven tools are useful :• Quantifying climate-induced risk • Supporting farmers’ decisions • Often historical daily data is
essential(b) Partnerships with NMS are vital:• Capacity building• Climate data access
(c) Much historical data available Example of Machakos, Kitui, Mwingiand Makueni Districts in Kenya.
Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
Second important outcome, an Operational Research Strategy (ORS):-
ORS has a two - pronged strategy:(i) Short to medium term(ii) Medium to longer term
“Adaptations to climate change in the SAT”
Purpose: To enable investors in rain-fed farming to better understand and manage both the risks posed and opportunities offered by current rainfall variability and future climate change.
Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
(i) Short to medium - term strategy:
The focus of current suite of 7 projects in ESA with common elements of:-
• Climate driven tools for quantifying riskof current and innovative farming practices
• Outputs support medium term strategicand short term tactical planning.
• Building capacity of partners to use toolsand the outputs
“Helping farmers and stakeholders to cope better with current rainfallvariability as a prerequisite to adapting to future climate change”
Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
(ii) Medium to long - term strategy:
Likely Challenges:• Higher temperatures• Greater incidence of moisture extremes• Distribution of pests and diseases• Migration of our mandate crops
Assets:• Evolutionary advantage of our crops• Tools available to assess climate risk
“Adapting and managing our crops to grow in a warmer world”
Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
Examples of two important tools:-
An example……
(1) Crop Growth Simulation Models (APSIM and DSSAT.)
• Driven by long-term daily weather data (precip; max/min temp, radiation)
• Calibrated for our mandate crops (sorghum, millet, groundnut, pigeon pea and chickpea)
• Can simulate contrasting environmental, management and genotype options
• Can quantify current climate-induced risk of a broad range of interventions
• Nitrogen recommended on Maize (52kg N /ha) but not adopted.• Why? Too expensive & thought too risky. We asked “how much could
farmers afford”? The answer was “about 17kg N /ha”.• ‘Risk and returns’ analyses by APSIM using 47 years of daily historical
Investment Returns on N-appl icat ionto Maiz e - Masv ingo, Zimbabwe
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…and expressed in terms of “probability of success”?
An “APSIM” example from Zimbabwe. Fertilizer use and risk:
An “APSIM” example from Zimbabwe Fertilizer use and risk:
The “probability of success”
IMPACT. Extension Services and Fertilizer Tradersrecently successfully evaluated nitrogen “micro-dosing” with 200,000 farmers in Zimbabwe.
Perception of risk has changed.
WHY?•The first time a quantified estimate of climate risk had been provided.
•It allowed them to make more informed and objective decisions about fertilizer.
Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
Figure: Disaggregated impacts of CC on groundnut production at Bulawayo
APSIM can also be used to look at the impacts of climate
change scenarios:
For example:- disaggregatedimpacts can be assessed
• 50 years historical daily data• CO2 = 350 → 700ppm• TOC = + 3OC• R = - 10%
Groundnut
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Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
Scenario. 47 years of data from Katumani, Kenya, Looking at impact of climate change (CO2 from 350 – 700ppm, temperature increase of 3OC rainfall increase of 10%). …… Impact on growth and yield of Pigeonpea
76154131Current+CO2+TOC
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Flw. To Mat.(d)
Em to Flw (d)
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Figure 4a. Probability distribution of Pigeon Pea grain yield (kg/ha) at Katumani
• ‘Analogue locations’ (Makinducurrently has climate of Katumani under CC scenario)
• Distribution and abundance ofpests and diseases under CC
• Crop variety deployment undercurrent and future climate scenarios.
Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
Testing a“Hypothesis of Hope”
• Yield Gap 1 can be mitigated though improved crop and NRM
• Yield Gap 2 can be mitigated through crop adaptation to CC
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Current Climate
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Climate Change
Improved Practices
+Climate Change
Improved practices
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germplasm+
Current climate
Management and Climate Scenarios
Current Climate Yield Gap
Improved practices
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Climate change
Yield Gap 1
Yield Gap 2
Adapting and managing our crops to grow in a
warmer world
Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
Groundnut yield (kg/ha) simulations (APSIM) at Kasungu, Malawi. 1927-1999
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Current Climate
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Climate Change
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+Climate Change
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Current climate
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Climate change
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Yield Gap 2
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Management and Climate Scenarios
138 (=119 under CC)
Early0.75Imp. input +ad. variety
121Early0.75Imp. practice
156Late1.2Low inputCurrent climate + 3OC
121Early0.75Imp. practice
156Chalimbana
Late1.2Low input
Maturity(days)
ToPRow sp.(m)
Variable →Current climate
Adaptation to Climate Change in the SAT
Thanks for listening
Time for any questions!
“Managing Uncertainty: Innovation Systems forCoping with Climate Variability and Change”
ICRISATSummary Points.
• The first ASARECA CGS-Stream C Project – with funds from the African Development Bank for a 3-year period. ($ 575,000)
• It brings together 2 NARS (Uganda and Sudan), 4 CGIAR Centres (ICRISAT, ILRI, ICRAF and CIAT) and 1 ARI (Reading University, UK)
• Inception workshop held one year ago in Kenya
• The project purpose is:-
‘Coping with both risks and opportunities associated with climate variability and change in ECA enhanced through appropriate
strategies and institutional innovation’.
The project will achieve its Purpose through 3 linked results.
“Managing Uncertainty: Innovation Systems forCoping with Climate Variability and Change.”
Result 1. Knowledge will be synthesized and disseminated to agricultural and meteorological researchers and planners to help them make optimal choices with respect to direct and indirect impacts of climate variability and change in ECA (Led by ILRI)
Result 2. An innovation system will be established, through learning alliances and information exchange, to assist NMS and NARS to jointly mainstream climate risk assessment and management into their agendas. (Led by Reading University)
Result 3. Tested and proven strategies and tools that address priority NPP concerns and provide an enhanced understanding of climate induced risk will be demonstrated and disseminated through ‘Proof of Concept’ studies in ECA. (Led by ICRAF and ICRISAT)
