Date post: | 30-Dec-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | austen-goodman |
View: | 217 times |
Download: | 1 times |
Adapting to climate change in decision
making
Mark Goldthorpe, UK Climate Impacts Programme
Climate change adaptation strategies in Impact Assessments Exeter, 8th October 2009
The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)
Set up by Government in 1997
•funded by Defra
•based at University of Oxford
Works through:
•stakeholder-led research
•partnerships
•programmes
•capacity building
“Helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts”
Provides free guidance, tools and datasets: www.ukcip.org.uk
A boundary organisation
UKCIP & IEMA
IEMA Practitioner, July 2009 –“Adapting to climate change: a guide to its management in organisations”
1. Managing the process2. Understanding the climate risk3. Developing an adaptation strategy
1. Managing the process
• Understanding the problem
• Identifying drivers and barriers
• Overcoming the constraints
• Who to involve?
• Mainstreaming adaptation
Understanding the problem: from climate ...Trends
Hotter, drier summers
Milder, wetter winters
Greater proportion of rain in heavy downpours
Sea level rise
EventsHeat
waves
Droughts
Floods
Fewer cold
snaps
Storms
ImpactsDamage to physical assets
Loss of access to buildings
Effects on biological/ industrial processes
Uncomfortable indoor environments
Damage to critical infrastructure
Changing lifestyles and consumer tastes
Changing commodity prices/ availability
ConsequencesLoss of business
continuity
Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs
Health/ comfort implications for employees
Increased/ decreased productivity
Changing markets
Effect on reputation
... to consequences
Climate Change
Potential impacts on:
Markets
Logistics
Process
Finance
People
Premises
Management response
Reputational risk
Health & safety risk
Strategic riskFinancial risk
Operational risk
Environmental risk
Impacts on
MarketsFinancesLogisticsProcessesPremisesPeople
Consequences for organisation & stakeholders
IEMA members’ survey
Around 1,000 IEMA members provided feedback, September 2009
• 62% of organisations are planning now for adaptation to climate change (local government 90%, utilities 76%, other business sectors 62% - 65%)
• Identifying risks relating to their
o Markets 53%
o Finances 46%
o Logistics 44%
o Processes 53%
o Premises 57%
o People 49%
Identifying drivers and barriers
• Stakeholder requirements
• Increasing exposure to liability or costs
• Opportunities for improvements
AdaptationFor Against
• Lack of knowledge or resources
• Long term / short term decisions
• Attitudes to risk & uncertainty
2. Understanding the climate risk
• Vulnerability
• Critical thresholds
• Scoping future impacts
• From impacts to risk
• Vulnerability is a function of
o sensitivity to climatic variability & change
o exposure to climate risk
o capacity to adapt
• Affected by factors such as
o supply chain, physical assets, activities, market features,
locations, resources, institutional arrangements
What is vulnerability?
• An organisation should be able to
identify
o how particular types of weather have
affected it in the past
o critical thresholds
Developing a Local Climate Impacts Profile
• Uses past experiences and events to review
where operations are currently affected by
weather risks
o review significant recent local weather events, the
consequences and institutional responses in order
to understand current vulnerability
o assess effectiveness of current response
arrangements
o use information to raise awareness and prompt
action on high priority threats and opportunities
o process can then be developed into a more
systematic monitoring of impacts
o identify critical thresholds, which, if exceeded will
cause unacceptable risks
Scoping future impacts: BACLIAT
1. markets
2. logistics
3. process
4. finance
5. people
6. Premises
Leading to management responses
Climate change provides both ‘challenge’ and ‘opportunity’
Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment Tool
A generic framework for considering climate impacts on business areas
3. Developing an adaptation strategy
• Making a commitment
• Setting adaptation objectives
• Prioritising areas for action
• Identifying adaptation options
• Evaluating adaptation options
• Putting together a programme
• Keeping it relevant
Identifying adaptation options
Building Adaptive Capacity
1. Create, gather or share information
e.g. research
2. Create supportive governance
e.g. standards
3. Create supportive organisational structure
e.g. partnerships
Delivering Adaptation Actions
1. Accept, spread or share loss
e.g. Insurance
2. Avoid or minimise negative impacts
3. Exploit positive opportunities
e.g. introduce new activity
For example:
Strategic solution
Temporary arrangement
Separate hazard from receptor
Technical fix
Change working practice
System for quick recovery
Actions for others
And finally – important to remember!
Support is available
• Use the skills and knowledge in your organisation
• Use your professional bodies and networks
• Use the experience within your sector
• Use the resources within your region
• Use the expertise of researchers and consultancies
• Use national tools and resources – e.g. Defra, Met Office, UKCIP