July 2013
MOSA Quartely Report – Issue 21Mobile Operator Strategies Analysis
Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013.
CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL
Adaptive smart cells accelerating; first operator steps to LTE Advanced
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MOSA stands for Mobile Operator Strategy Analysis. MOSA is the
ONLY exclusive Operator Tracking Service focusing on the leading
100 4G operator wirelessinfrastructure strategies
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Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
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MOSA Coverage
Macro RAN Small Cells & WiFi Backhaul
Global SpectrumCore Network SWOT & Ranking
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100 Operators CoveredIndia Aircel
India Bharti Airtel
China China Mobile
China China Telecom
China China Unicom
Taiwan Chunghwa Telecom
Hong Kong CSL Limited Japan EMOBILE Ltd
Taiwan FarEasTone
Philippines Globe Telecom
Japan KDDI
South Korea Korea Telecom(LTE)
South Korea LG U+
Malaysia Maxis Communications
Japan NTT DOCOMO
Australia Optus/vividwireless
Malaysia Packet One Networks (P1)
India Reliance Industries Limited
Singapore SingTel
South Korea SK Telecom.
Philippines Smart Communications
Japan SOFTBANK MOBILE
New Zealand Telecom New Zealand
Australia Telstra
India Tikona Digital Networks
Mexico America Móvil (Telcel)
Uruguay Antel
Colombia Claro
Chile Claro
Jamaica Digicel
Brazil Embratel / Telmex
Chile Entel
Venezuela MovilMax
Brazil Oi Brazil
Puero Rico Open Mobile
Brazil Sky Brazil
Argentina Telecom Argentina (Personal) Mexico Telefonica / Movistar Mexico
Colombia UNE Telecomunicaciones
Denmark 3
Poland Aero2 Group
France Bouygues Telecom
Finland Elisa
UK Everything Everywhere
Belgium KPN Group
Russia MegaFon
Russia MTS/Comstar
Sweden Net4Mobility
Germany O2 Germany
France Orange
Russia Rostelecom
France SFR
Portugal TDC
Sweden Tele2
Italy Telecom Italia
UK Telefonica O2
Spain Telefonica Spain
Austria Telekom Austria
Norway Telenor
Denmark TeliaSonera
Sweden Teliasonera
Norway Teliasonera
Portugal TMN
Austria T-Mobile Austria
Germany T-Mobile International AG
Turkey Turkcell
Russia Vimpelcom
Germany Vodafone Germany
Russia Yota
UAE Etisalat
Saudi Arabia Mobily
Namibia MTC Namibia
South Africa MTN
Saudi Arabia Saudi Telecom Company (STC)
South Africa Vodacom
Saudi Arabia ZAIN
USA AT&T
Canada Bell Canada
USA Clearwire USA
USA Dish Network
USA Leap Wireless
Canada Rogers Wireless
USA Sprint Nextel
Canada Telus Mobility
USA T-Mobile USA
USA Verizon Wireless
Malaysia DiGi
UK Telefonica O2
Qatar Ooredoo
Malaysia Celcom Axiata
Brazil Claro
Spain Vodafone
Spain Orange
Portugal Optimus
Czech Telefonica O2
Switzerland Swisscom
Italy 3 Italia
Italy Vodafone
Netherlands T-Mobile
Nigeria Airtel
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MOSA Deliverables:
Infrastructure Profiles (PDF) Quarterly Reports (PPT)
Quarterly Master File (Excel)Briefings, Analyst Support
MOSA Matrix
• Top 100 4G operators analyzed against 10 key trends identified by MaRe for their impact on the 4G business case
• Small cells and HetNet
• Multiband LTE deployments including carrier aggregation
• TD-LTE and converged FD/TD-LTE
• Voice strategies including VoLTE
• LTE-Advanced deployment/contribution
• Cloud RAN
• Machine-to-machine services
• Advanced backhaul strategies
• Mobile cloud services
• Innovative applications including vertical markets
DRIVERS CHALLENGES SOLUTIONS
Structure of MOSA
July 2013
In each key topic area, gold standard operators selected
and analyzed in depth for their market leadership in the area. The business case and
prospects of others are assessed against the same
criteria.
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Table of Contents (1)July 2013
7Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013.
CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9SECTION 1: DRIVERS 14Mobile broadband demand 15LTE subscriber growth 17New applications 18
SECTION 2: CHALLENGES 20Capacity crunch versus ARPU 21Spectrum crunch 23
Key quarterly spectrum trends 25Customer experience 30
SECTION 3: SOLUTIONS 32Small cells 33
Challenges 35SWOT: AT&T 37
July 2013Table of Contents (2)
88Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013.
CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL
Cloud-RAN 39SWOT: NTT Docomo 43
Carrier Wi-Fi 44O2 UK 47
Multiband LTE 49Carrier aggregation 50SWOT: AT&T 51
TD-LTE and multimode 52SWOT: China Mobile 55TDD deployments and quarterly highlights 58
Backhaul capacity 61SWOT: KDDI 64
Core network strategies 66SDN 67SWOT: Orange 68
July 2013Table of Contents (3)
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CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL
EDGE networking and optimization 69SWOT: Maxis 71
VoLTE and RCS 73SWOT: Telefonica 74
Progress to LTE-Advanced 75SWOT: SK Telecom 76
SECTION 4: TRENDS AND FORECASTS 78FDD-LTE trends and forecasts 79Regional LTE highlights of the quarter 80LTE subscriber trends 86LTE infrastructure contracts and trends 91WiMAX trends and forecast 934G subscriber forecast 96
July 2013
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYMobile Operator Strategy Analysis
10Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013
CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL
Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013.CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL
July 2013
At the heart of the Mobile Operator Strategy Analysis (MOSA) service is the MOSA Matrix. Thisassesses the Top 100 4G operators against the 10 key technology and business trends,identified by Maravedis-Rethink as critical for business success. For the second quarter of2013, the following operators were identified as leaders in these areas:
TRENDS OPERATOR
Small Cells AT&T
Distributed RAN/C-RAN NTT Docomo
Carrier Wi-Fi Telefonica O2 UK
Multiband LTE/carrier aggregation AT&T
TD-LTE and multimode China Mobile
Backhaul capacity KDDI
Innovative core strategies Orange
Optimization and edge networks Maxis
VoLTE and RCS Telefonica Group
Progress to LTE-Advanced SK Telecom
Executive Summary
Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013.CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL
Selected research forecasts in the MOSA key trends
TRENDS HIGHLIGHTS
Small Cells Public access metrocells up from 125K in 2013 to 3.37m 2018
Distributed RAN/C-RAN C-RAN units account for 65% of new macrocell units by 2014
Carrier Wi-Fi By 2018, 40% of metrocell will have integrated carrier-class WI-Fi
Multiband LTE/carrier aggregation 12 operators will deploy CA for 150Mbps speeds this year
TD-LTE and multimode 16 commercial TD-LTE networks in place, and 54 trials as of May
Backhaul capacity Fiber key for metrocell backhaul, but wireless will be one-third of connections by 2018
Innovative core strategies Carriers move slowly to SDN, and look to ease core burden
Optimization and edge networks By 2018, half of small cells will have localized intelligence and CPU
VoLTE and RCS 2014 will be breakthrough year, China Mobile kickstarts TD VoLTE
Progress to LTE-Advanced Upgrades driven by small cells (eICIC) and spectrum (CA)
Executive SummaryJuly 2013
Key changes in the quarter:
Small cells:Forecasts for 2018 adjusted slightly upwards to 3.5m public access units in that year, but in2013-2015, operators focusing more than expected on indoors, delaying outdoor roll-outIncreased focus on intelligence and adaptive networks:Differentiation moves from hardware, to intelligence from core to backhaul to edgeKey trends to watch: RAN caching, emergence of carrier SDN, cell breathing, optimizationCommercial LTE-A:SK Telecom initiates commercial services with some features of LTE-AIn 2013-2014, 28% of LTE operators will implement some LTE-A features, mainly CA and eICICBackhaul:While fiber remains critical for metrocells, wireless is defining its role for Wi-Fi and fixed access,as well as some metrozones, and Google Project Loon revives interest in satelliteForecasts:LTE subscriber base will reach 1.4bn by 2018, driving a slight increase in 4G RAN deploymentforecast – 1,500 macro/C-RAN cell sites in 2018 and 3.5m small cell sites deployed
Executive SummaryJuly 2013
Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013.CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL
Sample SWOT: AT&T small cellsAT&T• Extensive femtocell roll-out• Goal to deploy 40K
metrocells in 2013-14• Strong ecosystem control
via Cisco (Intucell etc)• Aims for multimode 2014,
then Wi-Fi integration• Drives whole sector via
influence in industry bodies• Comment: By setting a
public and ambitious target and working with standard architectures, AT&T is establishing the rules for mass roll-outs
S.•Extensive experience with femtocells•Industry influence •Various spectrum options•Early plans for LTE-A and HetNet•Tight ecosystem control
W.•Complex network migration process•Lacks clean spectrum for small cells•Deploying before advantages like WiFiintegration appear
O.•Harness Wi-Fi to steak march on VZW•Influence industry directions via standards work•Deliver personalized services
T.•Sprint’s plentiful spectrum for small cells•High capex on advanced network does not deliver ROI
July 2013
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Sample forecastMetrocell backhaul
July 2013
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Source: Wireless Backhaul Market from an Intermodal Perspective, April 2013
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June 2013
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