Additional Research Directions The Joint Global Change Research Team
May 23, 2011 Cosmos Club
Washington, DC
We’ve been focusing today on international and domestic policy dimensions and the associated research issues. JGCRI is undertaking a range of additional research that focuses on the intersection of climate, energy, technology, and policy.
The GTSP Research Agenda
Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
The GTSP Research Agenda
Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
Integrating Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Example: Integrated Earth System Model
The PNNL, ORNL and LBNL iESM Collaboration
! Create a first generation integrated Earth System Model (iESM) with both the human components of an IAM and a physical ESM;
! Further develop components and linkages within the iESM and apply the model to improve our understanding of the coupled physical, ecological, and human system;
! Add realistic hydrology, including freshwater demand, allocations, and demands to hold stocks of water as well as representations of freshwater availability from surface water, ground water, and desalinization
Three Primary Tasks
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
Approach
! Four state of the art modeling systems: ! GCAM1 ! CLM4 ! GLM1 ! CCSM4
GCAM
! Run inside CCSM4 (CESM1)
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
Integrating Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Example: Building energy demands
Scenarios design
Ref*
~ 550 ppmv*
Emissions scenarios
CCSM3
GISS
Hadley
Climate models
Population distribution scenarios
A2r
B1
Fixed
* Reference represented by SRES A2 emissions pathway; 550 ppmv scenario represented by the SRES B1 scenario
HDD &
CDD
Population Weighted HDD 2000-2100 (CCSM-ref-A2r)
High
Low
Global Population Weighted HDD
Ref emissions scenario 550 ppm emissions scenario
800
1500
2200
2900CCSM-‐Ref-‐A2
GISS-‐Ref-‐A2
Hadley-‐Ref-‐A2
CCSM-‐Ref-‐B1
GISS-‐Ref-‐B1
Hadley-‐Ref-‐B1
CCSM-‐Ref-‐Fix
GISS-‐Ref-‐Fix
Hadley-‐Ref-‐Fix 800
1500
2200
2900CCSM-‐550-‐A2
GISS-‐550-‐A2
Hadley-‐550-‐A2
CCSM-‐550-‐B1
GISS-‐550-‐B1
Hadley-‐550-‐B1
CCSM-‐550-‐Fix
GISS-‐550-‐Fix
Hadley-‐550-‐Fix
Effect of Climate Change
Effect of Population Distribution
Changes in Building Final Energy Use in China (cumulative energy in EJ, 2005-2095)
Integrating Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Example: Feedbacks on agricultural productivity
14
Regional Disaggregation: Agro-ecological zone approach
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Land
-Use
Cha
nge
Emis
sion
s (P
gC y
r-1)
No Policy Case with climate change impacts500: Climate change impactsNo Policy Case500: UCT policy case
Climate impacts interact with mitigation policy.
By 2095, ILUC emissions go below 0 with climate policy cases
500 w/ Impacts No Policy w/ Impacts
No Policy w/o Impacts 500 w/o Impacts
Integrating Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Example: Water supply and demand
We are developing a supply and demand framework for water at a global level.
GCAM Fresh Water Supply Model GCAM Domestic Water Consumption
The GTSP Research Agenda
Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
Regional Research Example: Buildings Research in China
Exploring the Effect of Building Codes in China: Separating China Buildings into Distinct Climate Zones
Cold
Severe Cold
Hot Summer Cold Winter
Hot Summer Warm Winter
Temperate
Severe Cold
Cold
Cold
21
China
Cold
Urban ResidenBal
Rural ResidenBal
Commercial
Hot Summer Cold Winter
Urban ResidenBal
Rural ResidenBal
Commercial
Hot Summer Warm Winter
Urban ResidenBal
Rural ResidenBal
Commercial
Severe Cold
Urban ResidenBal
Rural ResidenBal
Commercial
9 Provinces Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu
9 Provinces Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan
6 Provinces & 2 countries Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou, Yunnan Cambodia, Vietnam
6 Provinces & 2 countries Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Mongolia, DPRK
The Twelve Buildings Sectors
Building Energy Consumption: The Three Building Shell Efficiency Scenarios (Preliminary Results) ! We constructed a building stock model that specifies building construction,
building code development and enforcement, and retrofits and retirement. Based on this, three distinct shell efficiency scenarios were developed.
! The improvement in building envelope is likely to have a sizeable impact on total building energy consumption in China.
! The impact varies across climate regions in China
Regional Research Example: iRESM (integrated Regional Earth System) Project
24
iRESM Conceptual Framework
Separate project (PNNL,LBNL,ORNL)
iRESM Initiative
Feedback
Global Earth System Model
(CESM)
Global Change Assessment
Model (GCAM)
iESM
Integrated Analysis of: • Energy-Economics • Agriculture and
Land Use • Water • Socioeconomics
Regional-Global Change Assessment
Model
Regional Earth System Model
Atmosphere Land
Ocean Biogeochemistry
Building Energy Demand Crop Productivity
Water Supply Energy Infrastructure Water Management
Land Use, Land Cover
Regional Sectoral Models
Climate
Boundary Conditions Boundary Conditions
Climate Data Exchange
! Key Attributes: ! Modularity ! Portability ! Open-Source ! Integrated Regional
Analyses
Existing Models
New Models
Key
Future Development
Feedback
iRESM
Climate
RGCAM – Regional Global Change Assessment Model ! Current effort includes
! 50-state building and electricity modules within GCAM. ! Regional water.
! Creating a flexible architecture to be able to link scales in other parts of the framework.
! The Agriculture and Land Use (AGLU) already operates at different regional scales than the GCAM 14 regions.
Regional Research Developing a Regional Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework
The GTSP Research Agenda
Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
Technology Research Global Wind Energy Supplies
Roughness Length Technology
Exclusion & Suitability Turbine &
Transmission Cost
Overview of Methodology for Wind Supply Curve
Wind Energy Potential in cost categories
Technology Research Example: Value of Technology
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0
Freq
uency
Stabiliza?on Cost (2005 constant trillions of dollars)
F0: No CCS
33
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0
Freq
uency
Stabiliza?on Cost (2005 constant trillions of dollars)
F0: No CCS
L0: High Cost CCS
Having CCS Compresses the Distribution The availability of CCS truncates the upper tail – CCS provides a hedge against higher abatement costs.
34
Smaller Additional Compression from Cost Reduction
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0
Freq
uency
Stabiliza?on Cost (2005 constant trillions of dollars)
F0: No CCS
L0: High Cost CCS
R0: Low Cost CCS
35
Early Availability of Low Cost CCS Induces Small but Noticeable Additional Compression
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0
Freq
uency
Stabiliza?on Cost (2005 constant trillions of dollars)
F0: No CCS
R0: Low Cost CCS
R1: Low Cost CCS 15y delay
R2: Low Cost CCS 30y delay
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0
Freq
uency
Stabiliza?on Cost (2005 constant trillions of dollars)
F0: No CCS
L0: High Cost CCS
L1: High Cost CCS 15y delay
L2: High Cost CCS 30y delay
Early Availability of High Cost CCS Induces Much Smaller Additional Compression
High Cost CCS is not widely used as a competitive abatement option under less stringent constraint in early periods
Only in the later periods when the constraint is stringent enough, does High Cost CCS becomes a viable option
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The Galaxy of 161k Technology Combinations
38 Energy Consumption
Cos
t
2005-2095 Cumulative Primary Energy Consumption (Thousand EJ of Fossil Energy Equivalent)
2005
-209
5 N
PV
of S
tabi
lizat
ion
Cos
t (20
05 C
onst
ant T
rillio
ns o
f Dol
lars
)
Technology Research and Scenarios
! Characterizing the Role and Character of Mitigation Technologies ! Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage ! Bioenergy [Technical Workshop]
! Nuclear Energy [Technical Workshop] ! Buildings and Transportation [Technical Workshop]
! We are Taking a Leadership Role in a Range of Community Scenario Exercises ! EMF 24 International Scenarios
! EMF 24 U.S. Scenarios ! The Asian Modeling Exercise
! The LINKS Project ! The RoSE Project
! The RCP and SSP Processes [Technical Workshop]