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Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization and Remediation: Recent Progress Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future of Remediation Technology February 27, 2019
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Page 1: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization

and Remediation: Recent Progress

Linda M. Abriola

University Professor

Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment

REMTEC Technology Summit:

The Future of Remediation Technology

February 27, 2019

Page 2: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

However, we have learned a great deal and as we have moved from the

20th to the 21st century, our research questions have evolved….

Dense Nonaqueous Phase Liquid Contaminant Source

Zones

Despite more than 30 years of research and remedial experience, source zones remain a significant remedial and management challenge

Mackay and Cherry, 1989

Source Zone

Page 3: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Research Ques #1: How do DNAPLs migrate and persist at real sites?

(Abriola and Pinder, 1985)

(Dekker and Abriola, 2000)

(Powers et al., 1994)

Importance of Non-Equilibrium mass transfer

Modeling heterogeneity

Page 4: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Research Ques #2: Can we develop innovative technologies to remediate DNAPL contaminated sites?

Groundwater

flow

Lateral flow

and pooling

along low

permeability

layer

Flushing

Solution in

Flushing

Solution

out

Surfactant Enhanced Remediation

(Amos et al., 2009;Chen et al., 2013 )

Aggressive mass removal

Combined remedies

Reductive Dechlorination

Page 5: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Research Question #3: Is aggressive remediation worth the effort? What controls remedial effectiveness?

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Cumulative PCE Mass Recovery (%)

MF

/MF

O

High GTP (1.6:1)

Low GTP 1 (0.26:1)

Low GTP 2 (0.4:1)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

mass reduction

flu

x r

ed

uc

tio

n

LEV_1A

LEV_2A

LEV_1B

LEV_2B

LEV_1C

LEV_2C

HAV_1

HAV_2

High ganglia- to- pool

Ratio simulations

Low ganglia- to- pool

Ratio simulations

(Lemke et al., 2005)

(Suchomel and Pennell, 2006)

TCE Fractional Mass Removed

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

TC

E F

lux A

ve

rage

d C

on

ce

ntr

atio

n (

mg/L

)

0.1

1

10

100

1000

TCE Flux Averaged Effluent Conc

PPB averaging window TCE conc. prediction

(Christ et al, 2010)

26.0

0

015.1

0

5.0

0 1

1

01112

PF

PF

oo

PF

MMPF

eq

p

xPF

MMPF

eq

o

p

x

eq

Total

out

C

Cf

C

Cf

C

C

Importance of DNAPL Architecture

Simplified screening tools

Page 6: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

So, source zone characterization is key – but accounting for process coupling and heterogeneity present formidable challenges

New Research Questions

#4: How can we improve remedial performance predictions in

complex, heterogeneous systems?

#5: How can we incorporate uncertainty in site characterization,

remediation, and risk assessment?

Overview of some recent research

Page 7: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Exploring Coupled Mass Transfer Processes in Heterogeneous Settings: Model Formation

1 2

Lithofacies DescriptionVolumetricProportion

HydraulicConductivity(m/s)

GS-x Well-sorted Gravel 29% 4.50E-06Gcm Poorly-sorted gravel 57% 2.30E-04S-x Pure, well-sorted sand 6% 1.00E-03

bGcm,ICobble-and-boulder-richgravel

6% 1.30E-01

Lithofacies OC (%)Distribution Coefficient, Kd(m3/gr)

Retardation Factor

FreundlichCoefficient, Kf(gr-nfm-3*nf)

FreundlichExponent nf

First Order Kinetic Rates (day-1)

GS-x 0.5 2.00E-06 15.13 5.06E-06 0.80 1.00E-03

Gcm 0.035 1.40E-07 1.99 2.23E-07 0.90 1.00E-01

S-x 0.035 1.40E-07 1.99 2.23E-07 0.90 1.00E-01

bGcm,I 0.035 1.40E-07 1.99 2.23E-07 0.90 1.00E-01

Goals:

Investigate the influence of back

diffusion from low permeability (sorptive)

zones

Explore the relative importance of

desorption and dissolution processes on

mass persistence

(Yang et al., 2018)

Page 8: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Exploring Coupled Mass Transfer Processes in Heterogeneous Settings: Modeling Process

8

1.So

urce

Zon

e G

en

eratio

n

MT3DMS/MODLOW

Modified for NAPL

dissolution and

nonlinear/rate limited

sorption

2. Tran

spo

rt/rem

ed

iation

sim

ulatio

n3

. Po

st Pro

cessin

g

Generate 3-D Permeability FieldMarkov Transitional Probability

Generate Initial Saturation

UTCHEM Simulator

0

2

46

8

05

1015

0

2

4

6

Aqueous Concentration: 108 Years

mg/L

0.001

0.003

0.01

0.03

0.1

0.3

1

3

10

30

100

150

Flow Direction

(Yang et al., 2018)

Initial DNAPL/PCE Distribution (Saturation

Ranges from 1e-5 to 0.9)

Page 9: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Mathematical Formulation

𝜵 𝑲𝑘𝑟𝑤𝜵ℎ = 𝑆𝑠𝑝𝜕ℎ

𝜕𝑡

𝜕

𝜕𝑡𝜙𝑠𝑎𝐶

𝑎 + 𝛁 ∙ 𝐶𝑎𝑞𝑎 − 𝛁 ∙ ෩𝑫ℎ𝑎 ∙ 𝛁𝐶𝑎 = 𝐸𝑎𝑛 + 𝐸𝑎𝑠 + 𝑅𝑎

𝑘𝑟𝑤 ∶ water relative permeability

𝑞𝑎

• Flux Averaged Concentration @ Transect

𝐶𝑓 =σ 𝐶𝑖𝑞𝑥

𝑎/𝐴∆𝑥∆𝑦∆𝑧

σ 𝑞𝑥𝑎/𝐴∆𝑥∆𝑦∆𝑧

• Maximum Concentration @ Transect

• NAPL Mass / Sorbed Mass in Domain

• Persistence: Time to remove 99.99% of NAPL phase mass or to reduce flux averaged concentration or maximum concentration to MCL for PCE (5 ppb) or 1 ppb

𝐸𝑎𝑛 : Mass transfer between aqueous and NAPL phase

𝐸𝑎𝑠 : Mass transfer between aqueous and sorbed phase

𝑅𝑎 : Reactions or external sources/sinks

𝐸𝑎𝑛 = 𝜅𝑎𝑛(𝐶𝑒𝑞𝑎 − 𝐶𝑎) 𝑆ℎ′ =

𝜅𝑎𝑛𝑑502

𝐷𝑚𝑎

𝑆ℎ′ = 𝑓(𝑅𝑒′, 𝑑50, 𝑈𝑖 , 𝑠𝑎)

𝜅𝑎𝑛 : Lumped mass transfer coefficient

𝑆ℎ′: Modified Sherwood number

𝐸𝑎𝑠 = −𝜌𝑏𝜕𝑆

𝜕𝑡

𝑆 = 𝐾𝑑𝐶𝑎

𝑆 = 𝐾𝑓(𝐶𝑎)𝑛𝑓

−𝜌𝑏𝜕𝑆

𝜕𝑡= −𝛽(𝐶𝑎 −

ҧ𝐶

𝐾𝑑)

Powers et al. 1994

Evaluation Metrics

Transport Equation Two-phase Flow

Page 10: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Sorption 4-rate-limited3-nonlinear2-linear1-no

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Pe

rsis

ten

ce

(Y

ea

rs)

Total

DNAPL Removal

post-DNAPL

Evolution of flux averaged concentration at a down gradient transect

Aqueous concentration contour (left column) and DNAPL saturation distribution (right column)

Comparisons of total plume longevity, DNAPL removal time and post-DNAPL plume longevity for the various sorption models (20 realizations)

Research Results

Page 11: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Observations Subsurface heterogeneity has a predominant influence on mass

sequestration and its subsequent release

Dissolution of DNAPL mass controls plume persistence for much of the plume’s life

Local mass transfer behavior is governed by different processes in different parts of the domain

Desorption nonlinearities and rate limitations greatly influence plume persistence at late times

The influence of trace DNAPL in inaccessible zones is often indistinguishable from the influence of other sequestered mass

2-D simulations capture essential characteristics of 3-D scenarios, but often over- or under- estimate source zone plume persistence metrics

Page 12: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Laboratory scale model of a field downhole

test system

Packed with site aquifer materials (silty

sands/clay)

Hydraulic conditions characterized using a

bromide tracer test

Exploring Coupled Processes – TCE Sorption, Diffusion, and Biotransformation in a Heterogeneous Aquifer Cell

L7

L6

L5

L4

L3L2

L1Clay

InletOutlet

Inflow chamber

Outflow chamberWater table

Aquifer cell

model

construction

Flow field

characterization

10mM bromide pulse injection

Page 13: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Reduce flow rate to 0.05 mL/min

Recirculation with Lactate Amendment

5mM Lactate Pulse

10mM Lactate Pulses

•Bioagumentation•Reduce Flow Rateto 0.1 mL/min

Transformation byproducts, cis-DCE, VC, and ethene, were measured throughout

Biotransformation of TCE to cis-DCE was supported by background DOC from site materials

Dehalococcoides transformation of cis-DCE to VC and ethene required lactate addition

Longer residence time led to more complete transformation to ethene

Aquifer Cell Test Conditions

Page 14: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Coupled Process Transport Modeling

𝜵 𝑲𝒌𝒓𝒘𝜵𝒉 = 𝑺𝒔𝒑𝝏𝒉

𝝏𝒕𝝓𝝏

𝝏𝒕𝒔𝒂𝑪𝒊

𝒂 + 𝜵 ∙ 𝝓𝒔𝒂𝑪𝒊𝒂𝒒𝒂 − 𝜵 ∙ 𝝓𝒔𝒂𝑫𝒉𝒊

𝒂 ∙ 𝜵𝑪𝒊𝒂 = 𝑬𝒊

𝒂𝒔 + 𝑬𝒊𝒂𝒏 + 𝑹𝒊

𝒂

𝒌𝒓𝒘 ∶ water relative permeability

𝒒𝒂

MT3DMS MODFLOW

Enhancement of an industry standard simulator to model the coupled transport and bio-dechlorination of multiple

contaminants by multiple microbial populations in a complex DNAPL source zone

𝑹𝒊𝒂 : Bioreaction

𝑹𝑷𝑪𝑬𝒂 = −𝒓𝑷𝑪𝑬

𝒂

𝑹𝑻𝑪𝑬𝒂 = 𝒓𝑷𝑪𝑬

𝒂 − 𝒓𝑻𝑪𝑬𝒂

𝑹𝑫𝑪𝑬𝒂 = 𝒓𝑻𝑪𝑬

𝒂 − 𝒓𝑫𝑪𝑬𝒂

𝑹𝑽𝑪𝒂 = 𝒓𝑫𝑪𝑬

𝒂 − 𝒓𝑽𝑪𝒂

𝑹𝑽𝑪𝒂 = 𝒓𝑽𝑪

𝒂

𝒓𝒊𝒂 = 𝒌𝒊,𝒎𝒂𝒙 (

𝑪𝒊𝒂

𝑲𝒊,𝒉𝒂𝒍𝒇𝑰𝒊 + 𝑪𝒊𝒂)𝑿𝒌(

𝑪𝑯𝒂 − 𝑪𝑯−𝒕𝒉𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒉−𝒌

𝒂

𝑲𝑯,𝒉𝒂𝒍𝒇 + 𝑪𝑯𝒂 − 𝑪𝑯−𝒕𝒉𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒉−𝒌

𝒂)

𝒅𝑿𝟏

𝒅𝒕= 𝒀𝑷𝑪𝑬𝒓𝑷𝑪𝑬

𝒂 + 𝒀𝑻𝑪𝑬𝒓𝑻𝑪𝑬𝒂 − 𝒌𝒃𝑿𝟏

𝒅𝑿𝟐

𝒅𝒕= 𝒀𝑫𝑪𝑬𝒓𝑫𝑪𝑬

𝒂 + 𝒀𝑽𝑪𝒓𝑽𝑪𝒂 − 𝒌𝒃𝑿𝟐

PCE TCEDCE

DCE VCEthene

𝒓𝒊𝒂 : Monod kinetics for

reductive biodechlorination

Growth of each biomass population:

• 3 microbial populations (a fermentor, and two

dechlorinators)

• 7 chemical components (lactate, hydrogen,

PCE, TCE, cis-DCE, VC, and ethene)

• Modified Monod kinetics used to account for

electron donor availability and daughter

product inhibition – rates determined in

microcosm studies

• Microbial populations are attached

Page 15: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Microcosm Modeling

Microbial Transformation Kinetics Model

𝒓𝒊𝒂 = 𝒌𝒊,𝒎𝒂𝒙

𝑪𝒊𝒂

𝑲𝒊,𝒉𝒂𝒍𝒇𝑰𝒊 + 𝑪𝒊𝒂 𝑿𝒌

𝒅𝑿𝟏

𝒅𝒕= 𝒀𝑻𝑪𝑬𝒓𝑻𝑪𝑬

𝒂 − 𝒌𝒃𝑿𝟏

𝒅𝑿𝟐

𝒅𝒕= 𝒀𝑫𝑪𝑬𝒓𝑫𝑪𝑬

𝒂 + 𝒀𝑽𝑪𝒓𝑽𝑪𝒂 − 𝒌𝒃𝑿𝟐

Microcosm reactors prepared

(in triplicate) with site soil and

anoxic site groundwater -

addition of lactate (in excess),

TCE, and KB-1 inoculum

Trial

Maximum Substrate Utilization Rates

TCE to cis-DCE

cis-DCE to VC

VC to ethene

mmol /(mg cell*d)

mmol /(mg cell*d)

mmol /(mg cell*d)

D2K-1 0.319 0.090 0.222

D2K-2 0.356 0.074 0.222

D2K-3 0.315 0.077 0.176

Two microbial populations

Page 16: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Experimental/Model Comparisons – Post Recirculation

Ethene

cis-DCE

VC

Averaged RMSR: 25%

TCE

Effluent VOCs

TCE was transformed to a combination of cis-

DCE, VC, and ethene

Observed aquifer cell microbial transformation

rates were consistent with batch-fitted values,

when permeability variations were

incorporated and inhibition was neglected

• Continuous

Injection:

0.3 mM TCE

• Flow Rate:

0.1 mL/min

• Initial interpolated concentrationslactate

(Yang et al., in preparation)

Page 17: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Model Predictions – Post Recirculation17

Lactate

(a) (b) (c) (d)

(c)

(b)

(a)

(d)

Local heterogeneity in soil properties

influenced the complete dechlorination of TCE

to ethene

The extent of ethene formation was highly

dependent on the availability of electron donor

(not shown) in the lower permeability layers

Inclusion of heterogeneity in numerical

modeling is crucial to predictive accuracy of

reductive dechlorination

Page 18: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Assessing the Influence of Heterogeneity

Modeled using uniform (averaged)

properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity,

porosity, initial chemical and biomass

concentrations) over entire domain

The uniform model under predicts ethene production, i.e.,

under predicts complete dechlorination of TCE to ethene

Multi-dimensional models with uniform properties or 1-D

models, employing microcosm-measured dechlorination

rates, were unable to accurately predict aquifer cell

performance

Heterogeneous Model

Page 19: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Commerce Street Pilot Scale Down-Hole Treatability Test (Bioaugmentation)

Commerce Street Superfund Site (Williston, VT)

Four Well Centerline Transect

Industrial park—plating rinse water and sludge disposal (1960—1980) Plume concentration levels: TCE ≤ 18 mg/L; cis- DCE) 1.4 - 34 mg/L

Page 20: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Down-Hole Test Configuration

Bioaugmentation, followed by recirculation, then downgradient

pumping to direct flow through treatment area

Flow field Modeling (downgradient pumping)

Page 21: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Pilot (downhole treatability) Test Modeling—Biodechlorination

Injection well

Monitoring well

Comparison of field-measured and model simulated results for chlorinated ethenes and ethene in DHT-1 and DHT-2

Observed transformation rates were not consistent with temperature-adjusted batch-estimated and aquifer-cell validated parameters

Predicted ethene concentrations were substantially higher than those observed in the field test The aquifer cell was modeled with more detailed heterogeneities and fine grid blocks Transformation rates were likely strongly influenced by the presence of low permeability layers in

the treatment zone, which inhibited mixing

Page 22: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Comparison: Microcosm Aquifer Cell Field TestDrivers of Degradation Rates across Modeling Systems

TCE cis-DCE VC

kmax, I 20-23°C

gram/ (gram-cell *d)

43.36 7.81 12.91

Include Inhibition

Conditions Well-mixed, large liquid to solid ratio, donor in excess

TCE cis-DCE VC

kmax, I 20-23°C

gram/ (gram-cell *d)

43.36 7.81 12.91

Neglect Inhibition

ConditionsStratified geophysical properties, small liquid to solid ratio, limited

access to donor, flow-through

TCE cis-DCE VC

kmax, I 17°C

gram/ (gram-cell *d)

29.30 5.14 10.69

Removal of Inhibition

Conditions

Heterogeneous, porous media, 3-D, transverse mixing, interplay of

transport, transformation and microbial processes, spatial

variation of concentration

Page 23: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Unfortunately, fine scale heterogeneity is not quantifiable at real sites and fine scale simulations are often computationally prohibitive

So, simulations with lab-validated models indicate that a detailed knowledge of heterogeneity (physical and chemical), mass distribution, mass transfer rates, and biomass parameters is important for remedial design and assessment

Page 24: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Reducing Computational Burdens:

Upscaled Mass Transfer/Transformation Rates

• Upscaled modeling of sorption and back-diffusion

with multi-rate mass transfer (MRMT)

• Diffusive transfer between mobile and immobile

regions is described in terms of first-order rates

• Fitting of rates to predictions of 3D fine-scale

simulations.

• Implementation of the upscaled model in the field-

scale transport simulator (MT3DMS).

Multi-rate mass

transfer term

Upscaled due to low-permeability

inclusions acting as barriers

First-order rateCapacity ratio

24

Page 25: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Developing Effective Mass Transfer Rate Correlations

Dispersivity and effective permeability fit

to conservative tracer breakthrough

Slice from fine-scale 3-D simulation (1 m3):

Flow direction

BTC from 3D simulation and fitted upscaled model:

25

Fit of mass transfer rates

Fitted rate effective parameters correlated to media properties:

2

1 haSha

D

2

2 haSh

D

huaPe

D

(Elenius and Abriola, submitted)

Page 26: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Characterization Tools: Estimating Source Zone Mass Distributions from Borehole Data

Texture Saturation

Statistical Model

Equi-probable Realizations

ConcentrationTr

ain

ing

Dat

a

Simulate quantities conditioned on boreholes

and texture

Input data:Texture, borehole concentration, and

borehole saturation data

Concentration Saturation

(Arshadi et al., submitted)

Page 27: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Model Training - Feature Extraction

Features:

permeability at pixel i

permeability difference with lower pixel

distance weighted mean saturation

distance weighted mean concentration

Left

ave

ragi

ng

win

do

w Righ

t averaging w

ind

ow

Page 28: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Comparison of ‘Real’ and Average Simulated Mass DistributionsBorehole Random-field Automated Interpolator for NAPL Source-zones (BRAINS)

PCE DNAPL release (80 L) @ t = 1 year

Page 29: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Comparison of “Real” and Average Simulated Mass Distributions

PCE DNAPL release (160 L) @ t = 10 years

Page 30: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Metric Identification – Estimated vs ‘Real’

DNAPL Mass Aqueous Mass DNAPL Pool Fraction

Page 31: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Comparison with Kriging

0 50 100 150 200

True DNAPL mass (kg)

0

50

100

150

200

Pre

dic

ted

DN

AP

L m

ass (

kg

)

y=x

R2=0.42

(a)

0 1 2 3 4

True aqueous and sorbed mass (kg)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Pre

dic

ted

aq

ue

ou

s a

nd s

orb

ed

ma

ss (

kg

)

y=x

R2=0.93

(b)

t=1 year

t=3 year

t=6 year

t=10 year

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

True pool fraction (PF)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Pre

dic

ted p

oo

l fr

actio

n (

PF

)

y=x

R2=-35.75

(c)

0 5 10 15

True x-center of mass (m)

0

5

10

15

Pre

dic

ted

x-c

ente

r of

mass (

m)

y=x

R2=0.66

(d)

0 2 4 6

True z-center of mass (m)

0

2

4

6

Pre

dic

ted

z-c

en

ter

of m

ass (

m)

y=x

R2=0.64

(e)

0 2 4

True x-spread of mass (m)

0

1

2

3

4

Pre

dic

ted

x-s

pre

ad

of m

ass (

m)

y=x

R2=0.68

(f)

0 1 2

True z-spread of mass (m)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Pre

dic

ted

z-s

pre

ad

of m

ass (

m)

y=x

R2=0.35

(g)

0 50 100 150 200

True DNAPL mass (kg)

0

50

100

150

200

Pre

dic

ted

DN

AP

L m

ass (

kg

)

y=x

R2=0.42

(a)

0 1 2 3 4

True aqueous and sorbed mass (kg)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Pre

dic

ted

aq

ue

ou

s a

nd s

orb

ed

ma

ss (

kg

)

y=x

R2=0.93

(b)

t=1 year

t=3 year

t=6 year

t=10 year

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

True pool fraction (PF)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Pre

dic

ted p

oo

l fr

actio

n (

PF

)y=x

R2=-35.75

(c)

0 5 10 15

True x-center of mass (m)

0

5

10

15

Pre

dic

ted

x-c

ente

r of

mass (

m)

y=x

R2=0.66

(d)

0 2 4 6

True z-center of mass (m)

0

2

4

6

Pre

dic

ted

z-c

en

ter

of m

ass (

m)

y=x

R2=0.64

(e)

0 2 4

True x-spread of mass (m)

0

1

2

3

4

Pre

dic

ted

x-s

pre

ad

of m

ass (

m)

y=x

R2=0.68

(f)

0 1 2

True z-spread of mass (m)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Pre

dic

ted

z-s

pre

ad

of m

ass (

m)

y=x

R2=0.35

(g)

‘True’ Distribution BRAINS result Kriging result

Early Time

Late Time

Kriging Performance on Pool Fraction

Page 32: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

• Improved noninvasive characterization tools

• Coupling of characterization tools and mathematical models

• Continued development of laboratory- and field-validated upscaledmass transfer and transformation parameters for use in field-scale modeling and risk assessments

• Use of statistical analysis and machine learning techniques to develop ‘libraries’ of screening tools and models for field deployment

• Improved in situ tests for effective parameter estimation

• Protocols for iterative site characterization and plume management

What is still needed

Page 33: Addressing the Challenges in Source Zone Characterization ... · Linda M. Abriola University Professor Director, Tufts Institute of the Environment REMTEC Technology Summit: The Future

Project ER-2311

Kurt Pennell Brownco-PI Eric Miller, Tufts

co-PI

Maria Elenis, TuftsPost Doc

(now SMHI)

Natalie L. Cápiro, Tuftsco-PI (now Auburn U)

Masoud ArshadiTufts

Post Doc

Lurong Yang Tufts, PhD

John Christ, USAF Academy

co-PI (now S&B Christ,

Consulting)

Tian Tang, TuftsPhD (now Gradient)

Jason HnatkoTufts, PhD

Jack ElseyTufts, PhD


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