ADI: 2016 Holiday Shopping Predictions

© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.

2016 Holiday Shopping Predictions Adobe Digital Insights


Methodology

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Adobe Analytics

Adobe Mobile Services

Adobe Social

Most comprehensive and accurate report of its kind in industry

Adobe measures 80% of all online transactions from top 100 U.S. retailers ** $7.50 of every $10 spent online with top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud ** Report based on analysis of 1 trillion visits to over 4,500 retail websites and 55 million SKUs Predictions in past years within 2 percentage points Companion research based on survey with 1,000+ U.S. consumers 75M Social Mentions From Sept 2015 - Dec 2015 & Aug 2016 - Oct 2016

Data from different Adobe Marketing Cloud solutions:

Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data

** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2016

Adobe Marketing Cloud has seen strong adoption in the retail space – Adobe’s leadership in the Web analytics market has given it a big advantage here. Retailers need “big data” insights to optimize their cross-channel digital experiences and campaigns –and deliver the personalized, relevant experiences that inspire customer loyalty and advocacy. – Melissa Webster, IDC Adobe and the Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other countries. All other

trademarks are the property of their respective owners


Top Predictions

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Black Friday Will Be Biggest Ever, Hitting $3 Billion For First Time

57 Total One Billion Dollar Shopping Days, And 53 Straight One Billion Dollar Days – Up 71% YoY

Lack of Price Shopping Could Cost You 20% During the Holidays

5% of Customers Drive 35% of Revenue

The Holiday Season Starts Earlier, and Consumers Can Find Good Discounts Before Black Friday Weekend

Mobile Set to Overtake Desktop Visits, Yet Purchasing Remains Behind

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25% of top products are sold during Black Friday Weekend7


Black Friday Sets Record Sales, Cyber Monday Biggest Day Ever

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Holiday season set to grow 11% YoY, reaching $91.6 billion overall ($9.1 billion more than 2015)From Nov 1 through Dec 31

Cyber Monday to hit $3.36 Billion9.4% YoY Growth

Record sales on Black Friday$3.05 Billion Ι 11.3% YoY Growth

Thanksgiving Day to grow fastest$2.00 Billion Ι 15.6% YoY Growth

$8.4 billion in just three days:


Holiday Will See Unprecedented Amount of Billion Dollar Days

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57 total and 53 consecutive days will bring in $1B+ in revenue during the 2016 holiday season

Average growth for first two weeks of Nov: 5%

Average growth for last two weeks of Dec: 24%


Consumers Continue to Increase Their Online Purchasing

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Convenience factors for purchasing online grew YoY for consumers

Lower prices, good deals, and free shipping remain at the top of reasons for shopping online

States with highest e-commerce rate see correlation with more graduate degrees, student and total debt, and higher rent as share of income

Washington D.C. highest growth, Mississippi lowest


Holiday Shopping Season Starts Earlier

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31% of US consumers say they will start shopping before November 1 (+5% YoY)

27% say they will start before Thanksgiving (ADI Holiday Survey 2016)

Nearly 12% of all Christmas decorations will be bought before Halloween, up 20% from since last year


DPI Indicates Holidays See Steep Price Discounts

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A Consumer Guide to Holiday Happiness

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A Consumer Guide to Holiday Happiness

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Lack of Price Shopping Could Cost Customers 20% During the Holidays

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The average price difference for the same product fluctuates 20% between retailers during the holiday season

Price comparing toys could save you the most (24%), while electronics will save you the least (17%) Consumers typically check an average of four to five websites before making a purchase (ADI Holiday Survey 2016)


25% of Consumers Will Pay Higher Prices During Holiday

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Despite the increased ability to find adiscount, 25% of customers will pay a higherprice during the holidays

Consumers appear to be willing to pay apremium, perhaps for quality assurance orbrand loyalty

Loyalty pays off for the retailer too: 5% ofcustomers drive 35% of revenue


Mobile Shopping to Exceed Desktop in Holiday 2016

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Shoppers rely more on mobile:

Mobile will exceed desktop visits for firsttime this holiday (53%), yet only drive 34%of purchases

60% of consumers expect to rely on mobilebrowsing (vs. app) this year vs. last year (ADIHoliday Survey 2016)

Cyber Monday mobile visits grow fastest

Thanksgiving: 59% mobile visits, 41% mobile commerce

Black Friday: 57% mobile visits, 37% mobile commerce

Cyber Monday: 49% mobile visits, 32% mobile commerce


Purchases on Mobile Devices Remain Behind

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Mobile shoppers struggle to go beyond the shopping cart and convert when compared to desktop Desktop conversion rate is 2.7x higher than smartphone

While 30% of carts result in an order on desktop, only 19% of carts result in an order on smartphones


Display Gives Highest Chance of Finding Discounted Product

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Consumers indicate the best source of online shopping deals during the holiday is email from a retailer, followed by ads

Consumers rank social media sites and pushnotifications from apps the lowest (Source: ADIHoliday Survey 2016)

Display has the highest odds of leading to a discounted product (29%)

Social and email rank second


Most Buzzed About Gifts for Holiday 2016

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© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 17

Hot Products You Might Miss Based on Buzz

25% of annual top products sales happen between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday (in units)

Some products may sell out faster than others: ‘Buy Earlier in November ’ indicates products customers shouldn’t wait topurchase, ‘Buy Later’ are a safer bet

ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX

ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | 2016 Holiday Shopping Prediction

Appendix: Holiday Predictions 2016 (US)Adobe Digital Insights


Email Rated #1 to Get Offer to Consumer’s Mobile Device While Shopping


Overall Holiday Budgets Increased by 17%; Budget Breakdown


1% of Products Drive 74% of Online Sales During the Holidays


Black Friday and Cyber Monday Social Buzz Doesn’t Hit Until November


Average Price Difference by Category


Digital Price Index by Category

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Date post:	16-Apr-2017
Category:	Marketing
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