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ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique. Tim Olander and Chris Velden University of Wisconsin – Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS). International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Honolulu, Hawaii 13 – 16 April, 2011. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique Tim Olander Tim Olander and and Chris Velden Chris Velden University of Wisconsin – Madison University of Wisconsin – Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) Studies (CIMSS) International Workshop on International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Honolulu, Hawaii Honolulu, Hawaii 13 – 16 April, 2011 13 – 16 April, 2011
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Page 1: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

ADT – Advanced Dvorak ADT – Advanced Dvorak TechniqueTechnique

Tim Olander Tim Olander andand Chris Velden Chris Velden

University of Wisconsin – MadisonUniversity of Wisconsin – Madison

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

International Workshop onInternational Workshop onSatellite Analysis of Tropical CyclonesSatellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones

Honolulu, HawaiiHonolulu, Hawaii13 – 16 April, 201113 – 16 April, 2011

Page 2: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

We wish to acknowledge the inputs from those whom have provided valuable feedback regarding the ADT over the years, specifically Mike Turk and Greg Gallina at NESDIS/SAB, Andrew Burton at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, numerous forecasters and specialists at the NOAA/National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, past and present (too many to name here).

Special thanks to Jeff Hawkins and the Naval Research Laboratory and Office of Naval Research for the support towards the development and continued advancement of the ADT!

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueAcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Page 3: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview

• Brief Historical OverviewBrief Historical Overview

• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements

• ValidationValidation

• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future

Page 4: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview

• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview

• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements

• ValidationValidation

• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future

Page 5: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Step One: Creating the initial Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT)

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ODTADT History: The ODT

Page 6: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

• Reduce subjectivity– Analyst subjectivity can be introduced in assessing scene

type, applying certain DvT parameters and rules, and determining TC storm center locations

• Promote uniformity -- Given the above, significant variation in DvT

estimates can sometimes exist between Operational Forecast Centers (OFCs), as documented by IBTrACS

-- Provide objectively-based estimates as a guidance tool

• Original Goal– Obtain an accuracy on par with the DvT

Why develop an objective Dvorak Technique (DvT)?

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ODTADT History: The ODT

Page 7: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

landfall

Examples of wide intensity estimate variations betweenOperational Forecast Centers

Regions of Note

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ODTADT History: The ODT

Page 8: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

• Retain DvT “roots”, but amend a little– Implement as much of original DvT technique as possible

• Keep familiarity for analysts/forecasters (e.g. EIR branch)• Output that includes T# and CI# values• Utilize same scene type classifications• Integrate DvT steps/rules (e.g. DvT Rule 9 for weakening)

– Implement a time averaging scheme• Operate the ODT at hourly (or even 30-min.) increments• Utilize a “history file” to store critical information for each analysis• Employ 6-h (now 3-h) running average of T# estimates to smooth

minor fluctuations from estimate to estimate, apply to final CI#

– Implement additional features requested by users • Add user position or scene override functionality

• ODT applications limited to TCs > T3.5 (strong tropical storms and higher)

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ODTADT History: The ODT

Page 9: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Development of an objective scheme to estimate tropical cyclone intensity from digital geostationary

satellite infrared imagery

Chris Velden, Tim Olander and Ray Zehr

Weather and Forecasting, 1998, Vol. 13, pp. 172-186

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ODTADT History: The ODT

Page 10: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Step Two: The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The AODTADT History: The AODT

Page 11: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

• Expand and Improve the ODT– Increase analysis intensity range and precision

• Allow for analysis of all ranges of intensities at/above TD stage• Addition of new scene type classifications and analysis scheme

– Curved Band using 10° Log Spiral technique– Additional Eye scene types– Modified cloud region temperature calculation (to help identify cloud symmetry)

• Integrate modified DvT Rule 8 intensity growth/decay constraints

– Provide completely automated analysis capability• Remove final subjective element of ODT technique: the storm center

determination/selection (replace analyst positioning using a mouse/curser with an objective Laplacian-based technique to search for localized and correlated bi-directional Tb gradients)

– Implement latitude bias adjustment for final MSLP estimates• Regression-based on relationship of the change of tropopause height

(and cloud top temps) with latitude (Kossin and Velden, 2004, MWR)

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The AODTADT History: The AODT

Page 12: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Step Three: The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ADTADT History: The ADT

Page 13: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

• Improve existing AODT methodology, and advance the algorithm beyond scope of the DvT– Integrate new intensity relationships

• Derive regression-based equations for eye and central dense overcast (CDO) scene types (discard look-up tables)

– Identify new environmental variables for regression equations

• Implement “Scene Score” calculation to determine current scene type using previous scene type and other environmental values

– Helps eliminate unrealistic scene type jumps

– Utilize new automated storm center determination process• Implement forerunner to Wimmers/Velden ARCHER scheme (2010, JAMC)

– Examines spiral band structure of entire IR cloud top temperature field

– Searches for eye features using advanced ring fitting analysis scheme

– Can identify and discard most “false eye” situations

• Scheme works primarily in T# range 3.5 and greater– Defaults to interpolation of OFC track forecast at weaker intensities

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ADTADT History: The ADT

Page 14: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

The Advanced Dvorak Technique: Continued development of an objective scheme to estimate

tropical cyclone intensity using geostationary infrared satellite imagery

Timothy Olander and Christopher Velden

Weather and Forecasting, 2007, Vol. 22, pp. 287-298

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ADTADT History: The ADT

Page 15: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

• New: Exploit additional satellite sensor information– Utilize externally-derived Passive Microwave (PMW) Intensity

“Score” values during CDO events• ADT intensities typically level out during CDO events until eye feature appears

in IR imagery

• PMW imagery can often identify the organization of eye features below cirrus shield in the developing TC stages

• PMW score is determined from objectively analyzed TC structure using 85GHz, and based on empirically-derived thresholds, can result in the over-ride of the ADT-based T# (depending on score, two different T# intensity estimates can be assigned (either T# = 4.3 or 5.0))

• Additional logic in ADT algorithm “merges” new PMW-derived T# values into existing history file to eliminate unnatural intensity jumps (linear extrapolation back 12 hours from PMW estimate point). New logic also linearly increments the PMW value forward in proportion to DvT model Tnum expected growth.

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT History: The ADTADT History: The ADT

Page 16: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview

• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview

• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements

• ValidationValidation

• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future

Page 17: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview

• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview

• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements– Automated Storm CenteringAutomated Storm Centering

– PMW ScorePMW Score

– Knaff/Courtney/Zehr Wind>PressureKnaff/Courtney/Zehr Wind>Pressure

• ValidationValidation

• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future

Page 18: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Storm center determinationStorm center determination• Utilize IR-Window Imagery (No VIS yet)Utilize IR-Window Imagery (No VIS yet)

• Spiral CenteringSpiral Centering» First guess interpolated from official TC forecastFirst guess interpolated from official TC forecast» Fits 5Fits 5° log spiral to grid points within search radius around ° log spiral to grid points within search radius around

first guess positionfirst guess position» Calculates Tb gradients along spiral; determines position Calculates Tb gradients along spiral; determines position

and rotation where minimum existsand rotation where minimum exists

• Ring FittingRing Fitting» Spiral Centering position serves as first guessSpiral Centering position serves as first guess» Fits series of rings with different radii at grid points within Fits series of rings with different radii at grid points within

search regionsearch region» Searches for single ring that fits maximum Tb gradientsSearches for single ring that fits maximum Tb gradients

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueAutomated Storm CenteringAutomated Storm Centering

Page 19: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Spiral CenteringSpiral Centering• Fits 5° log spiral vector field Fits 5° log spiral vector field

to the IR imageto the IR image• Calculates a grid of scores Calculates a grid of scores

that indicates the alignment that indicates the alignment between the spiral field and between the spiral field and the IR Tb gradients the IR Tb gradients (maximum at the spiral (maximum at the spiral centercenter

Ring FittingRing Fitting• Calculates a grid of Calculates a grid of

scores that indicates the scores that indicates the best fit to a range of best fit to a range of possible ring positions possible ring positions and diameters (maximum and diameters (maximum at the eye center)at the eye center)

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueAutomated Storm CenteringAutomated Storm Centering

Page 20: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueAutomated Storm CenteringAutomated Storm Centering

Page 21: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview

• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview

• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements– Automated Storm CenteringAutomated Storm Centering

– PMW ScorePMW Score

– Knaff/Courtney/Zehr Wind>PressureKnaff/Courtney/Zehr Wind>Pressure

• ValidationValidation

• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future

Page 22: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

SummarySummary• As briefly mentioned earlier, a recent major ADT algorithm improvement utilizes external As briefly mentioned earlier, a recent major ADT algorithm improvement utilizes external

passive microwave (PMW) information to aid in detection of tropical cyclone eye/eyewall passive microwave (PMW) information to aid in detection of tropical cyclone eye/eyewall formation when the ADT objective scene identification scheme (relying on IR alone) formation when the ADT objective scene identification scheme (relying on IR alone) cannot discern developing eye features due to high-level overcast. cannot discern developing eye features due to high-level overcast.

• ADT algorithm can struggle with this scenario and the T#s often “plateau”. Coincident ADT algorithm can struggle with this scenario and the T#s often “plateau”. Coincident PMW data can view through much of the overcast and in many cases discern an PMW data can view through much of the overcast and in many cases discern an organizing eye structure.organizing eye structure.

• Based on the amount of eyewall organization (wrap) and strength, a PMW “score” is Based on the amount of eyewall organization (wrap) and strength, a PMW “score” is calculated.calculated.

• If the score exceeds pre-determined thresholds, the value is passed to the ADT, where it If the score exceeds pre-determined thresholds, the value is passed to the ADT, where it is converted to a T# and over-rides the IR-based T#.is converted to a T# and over-rides the IR-based T#.

• Currently this scheme is only utilized in the developing stages of TCsCurrently this scheme is only utilized in the developing stages of TCs

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePMW Intensity Estimate “Score”PMW Intensity Estimate “Score”

Page 23: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

• Uses the 85GHz brightness Uses the 85GHz brightness temperature signal to deduce the temperature signal to deduce the vigor and organization of the vigor and organization of the developing eyewall/eye, and developing eyewall/eye, and calculate an intensity score calculate an intensity score

• Successful in loosely Successful in loosely differentiating between storms differentiating between storms

• Greater than ~72 knotsGreater than ~72 knots• Greater than ~90 knotsGreater than ~90 knots

• If thresholds are exceeded, If thresholds are exceeded, PMW scores are converted to PMW scores are converted to either T# of 4.3 or 5.0 in the ADTeither T# of 4.3 or 5.0 in the ADT

• The scheme has been The scheme has been operating in the ADT since 2008operating in the ADT since 2008

Warmest eye pixel

Eyewall temperatures

Hurricane Dolly, 23 July 2008 1126 UTCHurricane Dolly, 23 July 2008 1126 UTC

DMSP SSM/I 85GHz (H) brightness temperature

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePMW Intensity Estimate ScorePMW Intensity Estimate Score

Page 24: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

More intense;More intense;Closer to Best TrackCloser to Best Track

More accurate duringMore accurate duringrapid intensificationrapid intensification

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePMW Intensity Estimate ScorePMW Intensity Estimate Score

Page 25: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Eliminated false intensity Eliminated false intensity “plateau”; Closer to Best Track“plateau”; Closer to Best Track

More closely follows rapid More closely follows rapid intensification; More intensification; More accurate maximum intensity accurate maximum intensity resultedresulted

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePMW Intensity Estimate ScorePMW Intensity Estimate Score

Page 26: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview

• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview

• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements– Automated Storm CenteringAutomated Storm Centering

– PMW ScorePMW Score

– Courtney/Knaff Wind>PressureCourtney/Knaff Wind>Pressure

• ValidationValidation

• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future

Page 27: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak Technique Courtney/Knaff Wind>PressureCourtney/Knaff Wind>Pressure

• Based on Courtney and Knaff (2009)– Adapting the Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure relationship for operational use

in Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 58, pp. 167-179

• ADT final MSLP estimate: Starts with the derived T# and Vmax, then utilizes information from real-time ATCF CARQ files provided by OFCs (NHC or JTWC)– R34 = Average of ATCF RAD1-RAD4 wind radii (in nmi) for 34 knot wind

threshold (gale radius)

– MSLP = Pressure (in mb) of outermost closed isobar (ATCF POUTER value)

– ROCI = Radius of outermost closed isobar (ATCF ROUTER value, in nmi) to estimate R34 value if no 34-knot wind radii are available

• R34est = (0.354 * ROCI) + 13.3

– ADT also uses climatological storm speed value of 11 knots

– Andrew Burton will discuss C/K methodology in greater detail later…Andrew Burton will discuss C/K methodology in greater detail later…

Page 28: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview

• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview

• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements

• ValidationValidation

• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future

Page 29: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Intensity range affected most by PMW “eye score” addition

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT Validation (Vmax, vs. Recon)ADT Validation (Vmax, vs. Recon)

Comparison of latest ADT version (v8.1.3, with PMW) and previous version (v7.2.3, w/o PMW)

7.2.3 Mean Error7.2.3 Bias8.1.3 Mean Error8.1.3 Bias

Page 30: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

• NORTH ATLANTIC – 2010 TC Season– Independent comparisons between ADT and SAB intensity estimates

– ADT and SAB estimates w/in +/- 30 minutes

– Closest NHC Best Track intensity (co-located w/ aircraft reconnaissance in situ measurement w/in 2 hours)

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT Validation: Comparisons with SAB DvTADT Validation: Comparisons with SAB DvT

106 total matches (homogeneous) bias aae stdvSAB:CI# -0.22 0.48 0.57SAB:Win -1.40 7.77 10.23SAB:MSL 5.01 8.20 9.78ADT:CI# -0.02 0.58 0.73ADT:Win 2.59 8.22 10.47ADT:MSL 2.22 8.94 11.35

Note: SAB analysts do have access to, or awareness of, the recon reports. While this influence is difficult to quantify, it offers a stringent comparison test for the ADT.

Page 31: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

• EAST/CENTRAL PACIFIC – 2010 TC Season– Independent comparisons between ADT and SAB intensity estimates

– ADT and SAB estimates w/in +/- 30 minutes

– Closest NHC Best Track intensity

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueADT Validation: Comparisons with SAB DvTADT Validation: Comparisons with SAB DvT

126 total matches (homogeneous) bias aae stdvSAB:CI# -0.05 0.33 0.43SAB:Win 0.48 5.91 8.54SAB:MSL 0.08 4.59 6.73ADT:CI# -0.07 0.28 0.36ADT:Win -0.38 5.94 7.73ADT:MSL 0.88 3.81 5.36

Note: NHC is using the ADT increasingly,especially in the EPAC. While difficult toquantify, their BT may reflect ADT influences.

Page 32: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview

• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview

• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements

• ValidationValidation

• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future

Page 33: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueCurrent Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

• Current ADT Status and Availability– Routinely utilized by several OFCs from CIMSS web site

• http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/

– Version 8.1.3 will be active on the CIMSS web site starting 1 May, 2011

– Efforts underway at SAB to integrate this version into operations there, to provide estimates via ATCF.

• Completion date uncertain

– Portable version now available (license req.)

Page 34: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueCurrent Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

ADT real-time homepage : http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt

Page 35: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueCurrent Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

****************************************************

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 28 AUG 2005 Time : 154500 UTC Lat : 26:14:25 N Lon : 88:20:05 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.8 / 926.0mb/134.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.7 6.7 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 33 km

Center Temp : +20.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

ADT real-time homepage

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt

ADTCurrent Intensity

“Bulletin”

Page 36: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueCurrent Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

===== ADT-Version 8.1.3 ===== --------Intensity------- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature- Time Final/MSLPLat/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix Date (UTC) CI MSLP /BiasAdj/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Score Lat Lon Mthd Comments2005AUG23 211500 2.0 1009.0/ +0.0 / 30.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -4.76 -35.41 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.25 75.44 FCST 2005AUG23 214500 2.1 1008.2/ +0.0 / 31.0 2.1 2.2 2.6 0.2T/hour OFF OFF 5.84 -34.85 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.28 75.49 FCST 2005AUG23 221500 2.1 1008.2/ +0.0 / 31.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 0.2T/hour OFF OFF 5.84 -33.57 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.30 75.54 FCST 2005AUG23 224500 2.1 1008.2/ +0.0 / 31.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 3.84 -34.04 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.33 75.58 FCST 2005AUG23 231500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 0.2T/hour OFF OFF 0.04 -34.42 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.36 75.63 FCST 2005AUG23 234500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.74 -33.37 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.39 75.68 FCST 2005AUG24 001500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.54 -32.66 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.41 75.72 FCST 2005AUG24 004500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.74 -30.82 CRVBND N/A N/A 23.43 75.77 FCST <records deleted>2005AUG27 154500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.6 4.9 4.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF -53.56 -68.93 EMBC N/A N/A 24.49 85.25 SPRL 2005AUG27 161500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.7 5.0 5.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF -53.86 -68.15 EMBC N/A N/A 24.50 85.31 SPRL 2005AUG27 164500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 5.1 5.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -60.06 -69.29 EMBC N/A N/A 24.51 85.49 SPRL 2005AUG27 171500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 5.0 5.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -62.66 -69.35 EMBC N/A N/A 24.53 85.67 SPRL 2005AUG27 174500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 4.6 4.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -68.36 -70.79 UNIFRM N/A N/A 24.64 85.75 SPRL 2005AUG27 181500 4.8 973.4/ -0.2 / 84.8 4.8 4.5 4.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -67.06 -69.50 UNIFRM N/A N/A 24.76 86.03 SPRL 2005AUG27 184500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 5.1 5.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -65.36 -71.15 EMBC N/A N/A 24.68 85.85 SPRL 2005AUG27 191500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -68.76 -73.14 UNIFRM N/A N/A 24.60 85.57 SPRL 2005AUG27 194500 4.8 973.5/ -0.1 / 84.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -68.36 -73.25 UNIFRM N/A N/A 24.63 85.61 SPRL <records deleted>2005AUG28 104500 6.7 929.0/ -0.4 /132.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.64 -70.90 EYE 30 IR N/A 25.74 87.56 COMBO 2005AUG28 111500 6.7 929.0/ -0.4 /132.2 6.7 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.44 -71.08 EYE 31 IR N/A 25.68 87.64 COMBO 2005AUG28 114500 6.8 926.1/ -0.4 /134.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.74 -71.74 EYE 30 IR N/A 25.73 87.72 COMBO 2005AUG28 121500 6.8 926.1/ -0.4 /134.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF 18.54 -71.46 EYE 31 IR N/A 25.76 87.78 COMBO 2005AUG28 124500 6.8 926.1/ -0.5 /134.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF 18.54 -71.12 EYE 32 IR N/A 25.88 87.81 COMBO 2005AUG28 131500 6.8 926.1/ -0.5 /134.8 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF 19.64 -72.01 EYE 32 IR N/A 25.90 87.97 COMBO 2005AUG28 134500 6.8 926.1/ -0.5 /134.8 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF 20.24 -71.25 EYE 32 IR N/A 25.93 88.02 COMBO 2005AUG28 141500 6.8 926.1/ -0.5 /134.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF 19.94 -70.71 EYE 31 IR N/A 25.97 88.08 COMBO 2005AUG28 144500 6.8 926.0/ -0.6 /134.8 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF 19.34 -70.99 EYE 31 IR N/A 26.11 88.15 COMBO 2005AUG28 151500 6.8 926.0/ -0.6 /134.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 20.64 -69.05 EYE 32 IR N/A 26.26 88.22 COMBO <records deleted)2005AUG29 084500 6.3 938.8/ -1.4 /122.2 5.8 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 13.04 -66.90 EYE 28 IR N/A 28.81 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 091500 6.3 938.8/ -1.4 /122.2 5.9 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 15.34 -66.15 EYE 28 IR N/A 28.92 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 094500 6.3 938.8/ -1.4 /122.2 5.9 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 12.54 -66.08 EYE 28 IR N/A 29.03 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 101500 6.3 938.7/ -1.5 /122.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 13.84 -63.94 EYE 29 IR N/A 29.14 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 104500 6.3 938.7/ -1.5 /122.2 6.0 5.8 5.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF 14.44 -61.50 EYE 30 IR N/A 29.25 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 111500 0.0 0.0/ +0.0 / 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 29.37 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 114500 6.3 938.6/ -1.6 /122.2 6.0 5.6 5.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 12.54 -59.59 EYE 30 IR N/A 29.49 89.43 COMBO 2005AUG29 121500 6.3 938.6/ -1.6 /122.2 5.8 5.5 5.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF 14.34 -58.01 EYE 31 IR N/A 29.67 89.54 COMBO 2005AUG29 124500 6.3 938.5/ -1.7 /122.2 5.7 5.5 5.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF 11.84 -59.13 EYE 29 IR N/A 29.74 89.55 COMBO 2005AUG29 131500 6.3 938.5/ -1.7 /122.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 11.94 -60.14 EYE 30 IR N/A 29.81 89.55 COMBO 2005AUG29 134500 0.0 0.0/ +0.0 / 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 30.00 89.56 COMBO 2005AUG29 141500 6.3 938.5/ -1.7 /122.2 5.5 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT ON FLG -1.56 -61.88 EYE 27 IR N/A 30.00 89.45 COMBO 2005AUG29 144500 0.0 0.0/ +0.0 / 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 30.32 89.56 COMBO Utilizing history file /home/tlo/odt/ADTV8.1.3WV/history/2005KATRINA.ODTSuccessfully completed listing

ADT real-time homepage

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a

dt

ADTHistory

FileListing

--------Intensity------- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature- Time Final/MSLPLat/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix Date (UTC) CI MSLP /BiasAdj/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Score Lat Lon Mthd 2005AUG28 104500 6.7 929.0/ -0.4 /132.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.64 -70.90 EYE 30 IR N/A 25.74 87.56 COMBO

Page 37: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueCurrent Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

ADT Time Series Intensity Plot

Page 38: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniquePresentation OverviewPresentation Overview

• Historical OverviewHistorical Overview

• Latest AdvancementsLatest Advancements

• ValidationValidation

• Current Status and AvailabilityCurrent Status and Availability

• Looking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future

Page 39: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

• Address current ADT biases and weaknesses– Shear scenes (weaker systems)– Curved Band analyses (employ regression approach?)– Weak bias in storms with Vmax >130kts– Passage over land and re-emergence

• Exploit additional satellite sensor information– Differencing of Infrared and Water Vapor imagery

shows promise in multiple areas• Correlation improvements for CDO and other scene type intensity

estimates through regression analysis

• Can aid in automated storm center determination

• Shows potential in rapid intensification prediction

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueLooking Towards the FutureLooking Towards the Future

Page 40: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

IR Image

Derived IR-WV ImageIR Image (w/ BD enh)

Stretched Enh IR Image(IR-WV locations only)

NOAA/NWS Radar

Recon Center

IR-WV selected storm center

Interpolated NHC forecast

Uniform CDOin IR-Window

covering storm center

Note similarities between derived IR-WV image and NWS radar identifying strongest convective regions

IR-WV product correctly identifies possible forming eye region

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueIR-WV Channel DifferencingIR-WV Channel Differencing

Page 41: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

Tropical cyclone convection and intensity analysis using differenced infrared and water vapor imagery

Timothy Olander and Christopher Velden

Weather and Forecasting, 2009, Vol. 24, pp. 1558-1572

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueIR-WV Channel DifferencingIR-WV Channel Differencing

Page 42: ADT – Advanced Dvorak Technique

• Expand ADT to initiate and operate on “Invest” systems

– I.E., attempt to objectively identify DvT T#1.0-1.5 convective disturbances

– Test and possibly integrate a new objective algorithm developed by Chris Hennon et al. at North Carolina State Univ. which detects and tracks tropical cloud clusters related to tropical cyclogenesis

– Implementation and initial testing will begin this summer

Advanced Dvorak TechniqueAdvanced Dvorak TechniqueOther ADT Research AvenuesOther ADT Research Avenues


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