Adult Social Care Workforce in Greater Manchester
Workforce estimates of turnover, vacancies and source of recruitment
Career progression
Factors affecting turnover
Prepared by Skills for Care Workforce Intelligence Analysis Team
For more information please contact;
Email: [email protected]
Telephone: 0113 245 1716
Web: www.skillsforcare.org.uk/nmds-sc
Adult social care workforce Clinical Commissioning Group and local authority areas
© Crown copyright
Clinical commissioning groups and local
authority areas across Greater Manchester
share the same boundaries, except for
Tameside and Glossop CCG.
The information in this document refers to
the clinical commissioning group unless
otherwise stated.
Adult social care workforce Estimated number of jobs
Skills for Care estimate there were
around 1.58 million adult social care
jobs in England in 2016. This includes 145,000 personal assistants employed by
individuals employing their own staff via direct payments
and around 90,000 social care jobs in the NHS.
There were around 64,000 adult social
care jobs in Greater Manchester, of
which 56,000 were in local authority and
independent sectors. The remainder of
this presentation focusses on the
56,000 local authority and independent
sector jobs.
Table 1. Estimated adult social care jobs by sector
Source. Workforce estimates 2017
* Estimate refers to local authority area only.
Total jobs
Local
authority Independent
Direct
payments* NHS
England 1,580,000 109,300 1,230,000 145,000 90,000
North West 214,000 18,500 161,000 22,000 12,500
Greater Manchester 64,000 6,100 50,000 7,800 -
Bolton 6,500 700 4,600 1,200 -
Bury 5,300 500 4,200 550 -
Manchester 10,500 1,300 8,400 850 -
Oldham 6,500 225 4,900 1,300 -
Rochdale 5,300 350 4,600 350 -
Salford 5,100 125 4,400 600 -
Stockport 6,800 600 5,500 650 -
Tameside and Glossop 4,800 700 3,600 425 -
Trafford 5,400 375 4,800 225 -
Wigan 8,000 1,100 5,300 1,600 -
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover by CCG Area
Turnover rate by Clinical Commissioning Group Area
In Greater Manchester, Trafford had the highest
turnover rate at 36.1% (equal to around 1,700 leavers)
and Tameside and Glossop had the lowest at 18.4%
(equal to around 750 leavers).
Across Greater Manchester, around 24.3% of directly employed staff left their role in the previous 12
months. Equal to around 12,500 leavers over the period.
This rate was lower than the North West region
(25.6%) and across England (27.8%).
Source. NMDS-SC Workforce estimates 2017
1. Wigan Borough, 2. Bolton, 3. Bury, 4. Heywood, Middleton
and Rochdale, 5. Oldham, 6. Salford, 7. Manchester, 8.
Tameside and Glossop, 9. Trafford, 10. Stockport
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover by job role
Registered nurses and care workers had higher turnover rates compared to other job roles. The turnover rate for
both of these roles was also lower in GM than across the North West (2.8% and 2.1% lower respectively).
Chart 1. Turnover by job role
Source. NMDS-SC raw data March 2017 to March 2018
27
.8%
23
.0%
14
.9%
14
.5%
32
.1%
17
.5%
33
.8%
25
.6%
25
.0%
15
.4%
17
.2%
33
.5%
16
.2%
30
.4%
24
.3%
24
.9%
12
.8%
20
.0%
30
.7%
19
.0%
28
.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
All job roles Registered manager Social worker Occupationaltherapist
Registered nurse Senior care worker Care worker
England North West Greater Manchester
Turnover rates were generally lower in Greater Manchester than both the wider North West region and England.
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover by job group and service
Turnover varies by both job group and the service provided.
Turnover was highest for direct care roles (26.9%), which was
also the case across the region and England
Chart 2. Turnover in Greater Manchester by job group
and service
Source. NMDS-SC Workforce estimates 2017
Domiciliary care providers, which are known to have
proportionally more direct care roles in their organisation
structure, also showed high turnover.
24.3% 10.6% 23.5% 26.9% 20.3% 0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
All job roles Managerial Regulatedprofession
Direct care Other
24.3% 24.1% 14.7% 27.0% 17.3% 0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
All services Adultresidential
Adult daycare
Adultdomiciliary
Adultcommunity
care
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Length of service
The relatively low turnover rates in Greater Manchester are also reflected in the length of service.
Chart 3. Average length of service in role by job group
Source. NMDS-SC Workforce estimates 2017
4.2 7.3 4.5 3.6 5.0 4.6 8.0 4.9 4.0 5.6 4.9 8.5 5.5 4.2 6.1 0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
All job roles Managerial Regulatedprofession
Direct care Other
England North West Greater Manchester
Across all job groups, workers in Greater Manchester had a longer average length of service. Most
notably in regulated professions.
The average length of time in role
was 4.9 years in Greater
Manchester.
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs job density
Job density refers to the ratio of ‘all jobs in an area to the population aged 16 to 64 in that area*’ (i.e
high job density means there are a high number of jobs in the area relative to the population).
Adult social care turnover rates were generally lower in areas where job density was low.
Chart 4. ASC workforce turnover vs job density
Source. Workforce estimates 2017, ONS © Crown copyright
4.
6. 5.
10.
3.
7.
8.
1.
9.
2
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
AS
C tu
rno
ve
r
Jobs density (higher = more employment)
1. Tameside and Glossop
2. Wigan borough
3. Oldham
4. Bolton
5. Heywood, Middleton and Rochdale
6. Bury
7. Salford
8. Stockport
9. Trafford
10. Manchester
* Job density provided by ONS as at 2016.
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs age group
By tracking an anonymous unique identifier for care workers in the NMDS-SC, we can compare
those that leave adult social care to those that stay.
Younger workers were more likely to leave the sector. The turnover rate falls as the age of the
workforce increases, until age groups 55 and above when workers approach the traditional retirement age.
Chart 5. Turnover by age group
Source. NMDS-SC raw data March 2017 to March 2018
35.2%
20.9%
35.8%
20.2%
31.8%
21.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Under 25 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65+
England North West Greater Manchester
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs pay
The turnover rate decreases as average hourly rate increases.
Pay rates above, but close to the national living wage (NLW)*, showed little effect on turnover. Turnover
begins to decrease substantially at hourly rates above £8.10.
Chart 6. Turnover by average pay bands
Source. NMDS-SC raw data March 2017 to March 2018 *NLW at the time of data capture was £7.20
25.5% 23.8%
26.4%
14.9%
23.4%
12.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
£7.20 andbelow
£7.21 to£7.50
£7.51 to£7.80
£7.81 to£8.10
£8.11 to£8.40
£8.41 andabove
England North West Greater Manchester
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs zero-hours contract
Care workers on zero-hours contracts were more likely to leave.
In Greater Manchester, 33.6% of workers on a zero-hours contract left within the following year, compared
to 18.7% of those not on a zero-hours contract.
Chart 7. Turnover by zero-hours contract
Source. NMDS-SC raw data March 2017 to March 2018
28.2
%
31.4
%
33.6
%
23.1
%
22.2
%
18.7
%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
England North West Greater Manchester
Zero-hours contract Non zero-hours contract
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs managerial post
Turnover was lower in regulated locations with a registered manager in post
The difference in care worker turnover between regulated locations with a registered manager in post and
those with a vacancy was greater in Greater Manchester than either the North West or England as a whole.
Chart 8. Turnover by registered manager vacancy
Source. NMDS-SC raw data March 2017 to March 2018
26.3
%
31.7
%
34.7
%
25.2
%
25.4
%
24.1
%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
England North West Greater Manchester
Vacant RM position RM in post
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs qualifications
Care workers with a qualification relevant to social care were less likely to leave.
Turnover was 13.5% lower for care with a relevant social care qualification in Greater Manchester.
Chart 9. Turnover by qualifications held
Source. NMDS-SC raw data March 2017 to March 2018
19.4
%
22.1
%
20.6
%
28.3
%
30.6
%
34.1
%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
England North West Greater Manchester
ASC relevant qualification held
No ASC relevant qualifications
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs length of service
Care workers were most likely to leave within their first year in role.
A third of care workers with less than a year of experience their role had left within the following year (33.6%).
After five years in role, the turnover dropped to almost half of this rate.
Chart 10. Turnover by length of time in role
Source. NMDS-SC raw data March 2017 to March 2018 3
2.9
%
24.5
%
19.8
%
17.2
%
15.1
% 10.9
%
11.7
%
33.3
%
26.5
%
21.4
%
18.1
%
15.0
% 10.5
%
10.0
%
33.6
%
25.8
%
24.5
%
16.0
% 1
1.8
%
11.1
%
8.3
%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%L
ess th
an
1 y
ear
1 to
2 y
ea
rs
3 to 4
years
5 to
6 y
ea
rs
7 to
9 y
ea
rs
10 to
19 y
ears
20 y
ears
or
mo
re
Less th
an
1 y
ear
1 to
2 y
ea
rs
3 to
4 y
ea
rs
5 to
6 y
ea
rs
7 to
9 y
ea
rs
10 to
19 y
ears
20 y
ears
or
mo
re
Less th
an
1 y
ear
1 to
2 y
ea
rs
3 to
4 y
ea
rs
5 to
6 y
ea
rs
7 to
9 y
ea
rs
10 to
19 y
ears
20 y
ears
or
mo
re
England North West Greater Manchester
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Source of recruitment
Not all turnover results in workers leaving the sector, the
majority of recruitment is from within adult social care.
This churn within the sector means the skills and knowledge
are retained within the sector.
Chart 14. Recruitment from within adult social care
Source. NMDS-SC Workforce estimates 2017
Heywood, Middleton and Rochdale showed the
greatest proportion of recruitment from within
adult social care (72%), whereas Oldham showed
the least (47%).
1. Wigan Borough, 2. Bolton, 3. Bury, 4. Heywood, Middleton
and Rochdale, 5. Oldham, 6. Salford, 7. Manchester, 8.
Tameside and Glossop, 9. Trafford, 10. Stockport
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Vacancy rates
Vacancy rate by Clinical Commissioning Group Area
Source. NMDS-SC Workforce estimates 2017
Across England, the vacancy rate was estimated at 6.6%. This was equivalent to around 90,000
vacancies at any given time.
The vacancy rate was lower in the North West region (6.0%) and lower still across Greater Manchester
(5.0%).
In Greater Manchester, Bury had the highest
vacancy rate at 8.1% (equal to around 400
vacancies) and Tameside and Glossop had
the lowest at 2.2% (equal to around 90
vacancies).
1. Wigan Borough
2. Bolton
3. Bury
4. Heywood, Middleton
and Rochdale
5. Oldham
6. Salford
7. Manchester
8. Tameside and Glossop
9. Trafford
10. Stockport
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Vacancy rates
Chart 11. Vacancy rate vs jobs density
Source. Workforce estimates 2017, ONS © Crown copyright
5.
6.
2.
9. 4.
8.
7.
1.
10.
3.
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
AS
C v
aca
ncy r
ate
Jobs density (higher = more employment)
1. Bolton
2. Heywood, Middleton and Rochdale
3. Wigan borough
4. Oldham
5. Tameside and Glossop
6. Bury
7. Stockport
8. Salford
9. Manchester
10. Trafford
Where jobs density was high, the vacancy rate was also high.
This could indicate that in areas where there is more competition from other
employers; social care vacancies are harder to fill.
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Vacancy rates
Chart 12. Vacancy rate by job group
Source. NMDS-SC Workforce estimates 2017
The vacancy rate varied by both job group and the service
provided.
Regulated professions (social workers, registered nurses)
had the highest vacancy rate in Greater Manchester (9.6%).
Domiciliary care providers (9.6%) had the highest vacancy
rates across England, although in Greater Manchester
community care services were the highest (7.5%)
Number of vacancies by job group:
All job roles – 2,700
Managers – 175
Regulated professions – 275
Direct care – 2,000
Other - 300
5.0%
3.3%
9.6% 5.1% 4.1% 0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
All job roles Managerial Regulatedprofession
Direct care Other
5.0% 3.8% 2.8% 6.0% 7.5% 0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
All services Adultresidential
Adult daycare
Adultdomiciliary
Adultcommunity
care
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Vacancy rates
In Greater Manchester, social workers had the highest vacancy rate at 12.1%. Equivalent to 125
vacancies. Whereas occupational therapists had a relatively low vacancy rate.
Direct care roles also had relatively low vacancy rates in Greater Manchester.
Chart 13. Vacancy rate by job role
Source. NMDS-SC Workforce estimates 2017
6.6
%
10
.0%
9.9
%
9.3
%
9.0
%
4.2
%
7.7
%
6.0
%
10
.0%
8.6
%
10
.0%
8.5
% 3
.6%
6.9
%
5.0
%
10
.2%
12
.1%
3.7
%
8.4
% 3
.1%
5.1
%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
All job roles Registered manager Social worker Occupationaltherapist
Registered nurse Senior care worker Care worker
England North West Greater Manchester
Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Career progression
The adjacent chart shows the range in salary
around the average for adult social care job
roles.
The arrows represent workers progressing
through roles as observed in the NMDS-SC over
time.
In practice there are many career paths that
people take in adult social care. This chart
represents the most common observed routes.
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£30,000
£35,000
£40,000
£45,000
Ancillary
Care
worker
Senior care
worker/
supervisor
Other
managers
LA senior
manager
Registered
nurse
Key
Direct care roles
Regulated professional roles
Managerial roles
Ancillary
Registered
manager
Social
worker/
occupational
therapist