Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services

Advance Short-Term Warning Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Servicesand Forecast Services

5-Year Implementation Plan/FY 2002-20065-Year Implementation Plan/FY 2002-2006

April 13, 2000April 13, 2000

Environmental Assessment and Prediction MissionEnvironmental Assessment and Prediction Mission

Implement Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasts:Implement Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasts:

NOAA will provide one-year lead time forecasts of known skill of global climate NOAA will provide one-year lead time forecasts of known skill of global climate variability (El Nino) and the consequent precipitation and temperature distribution to variability (El Nino) and the consequent precipitation and temperature distribution to increase society’s ability to mitigate economic losses and social disruptionincrease society’s ability to mitigate economic losses and social disruption

Predict and Assess Decadal to Centennial Change:Predict and Assess Decadal to Centennial Change:NOAA will provide science-based options for decisions regarding decadal to NOAA will provide science-based options for decisions regarding decadal to centennial change in the global environment, specifically for: climate change and centennial change in the global environment, specifically for: climate change and greenhouse warming; ozone layer depletion; and air quality improvementgreenhouse warming; ozone layer depletion; and air quality improvement

Promote Safe NavigationPromote Safe NavigationNOAA will revolutionize U.S. navigation and surveying and assist commercial NOAA will revolutionize U.S. navigation and surveying and assist commercial shipping in moving increased cargoes safely and efficientlyshipping in moving increased cargoes safely and efficiently

Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services:NOAA will significantly improve short-term warning and forecast products and services that enhance public safety and the economic productivity of the Nation.

Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast ServicesAdvance Short-Term Warning and Forecast Services

Sustain NWS Modernized OperationsSustain NWS Modernized Operations

Maintain Satellite ContinuityMaintain Satellite Continuity

Enhance Observations and PredictionsEnhance Observations and Predictions

Improve Service Communication and UtilizationImprove Service Communication and Utilization

ObjectivesObjectives


Sustain Modernized InfrastructureSustain Modernized Infrastructure

Build Upon “Success” of Previous Efforts (e.g. AHPS,USWRP)Build Upon “Success” of Previous Efforts (e.g. AHPS,USWRP)

– Provide necessary resources to meet accepted goalsProvide necessary resources to meet accepted goals

Improve Dissemination and Use of Weather InformationImprove Dissemination and Use of Weather Information

Accelerate Technology InfusionAccelerate Technology Infusion

Operationalize Space Weather ForecastsOperationalize Space Weather Forecasts

Improve Service Programs (e.g., Aviation, Marine)Improve Service Programs (e.g., Aviation, Marine)

Strategies for FY 2002- 2006Strategies for FY 2002- 2006

Customer Driven/Service-Science Linkage


WorkshopsWorkshops Science Advisory BoardScience Advisory Board Interagency Activities Interagency Activities

(Leveraging)(Leveraging) Line Office WorkshopsLine Office Workshops Project WorkshopsProject Workshops

ApproachApproach

Discussions/StrategyDiscussions/Strategy PrioritiesPriorities

Constituent Interaction ASTWF Meetings


U.S. Weather Research Program

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Improve Aviation Forecasts

Improve Coastal Marine Forecasts

InitiativesInitiatives

Enhance Use of Current Satellite Data Address National Warning False Alarm Rates Improve NEXRAD Product Improve Numerical Weather Prediction Efforts

RecommendationsRecommendations

Results from Constituent Planning and Priorities WorkshopResults from Constituent Planning and Priorities Workshop

Advance Short-Term Warning and Forecast ServicesAdvance Short-Term Warning and Forecast ServicesOverviewOverview

10% Growth/$73.1M10% Growth/$73.1M

#1 Priority: Sustain Infrastructure - $15.3M#1 Priority: Sustain Infrastructure - $15.3M

Balance for New Initiatives - $57.8MBalance for New Initiatives - $57.8M

New PAC Items - $19.0MNew PAC Items - $19.0M

Mega Initiative: Predict and Reduce Watershed Mega Initiative: Predict and Reduce Watershed Impacts of Coastal Storms (PREWICS) - $25.7MImpacts of Coastal Storms (PREWICS) - $25.7M

Critical Infrastructure Protection: $32.7MCritical Infrastructure Protection: $32.7M

O R & FO R & F

Sustain Infrastructure $15.3MSustain Infrastructure $15.3M

NWS - $7.6MNWS - $7.6M WFO Facilities MaintenanceWFO Facilities Maintenance $4.8M$4.8M NCEP Environmental ModelingNCEP Environmental Modeling

Center OperationsCenter Operations $2.8M$2.8M

NESDIS - $7.7MNESDIS - $7.7M Restore Environmental ObservingRestore Environmental Observing

System Line ItemSystem Line Item $6.0M$6.0M Commercial Remote Sensing LicensingCommercial Remote Sensing Licensing $1.7M$1.7M

Summary Page

WFO Facilities MaintenanceWFO Facilities Maintenance (+$4.8M) (+$4.8M)

Total FY 2002 request $10.1MTotal FY 2002 request $10.1M

Top priority for NWS ManagementTop priority for NWS Management

Necessary to provide basic maintenance and repair to 120 Necessary to provide basic maintenance and repair to 120 Weather Forecast Offices and sustained servicesWeather Forecast Offices and sustained services

Protect $250M capital investment in modernized facilitiesProtect $250M capital investment in modernized facilities

Addresses highest priority deferred maintenance actionsAddresses highest priority deferred maintenance actions

Utilized GSA and Industry Standards to validate estimatesUtilized GSA and Industry Standards to validate estimates

NCEP Environmental Modeling Center Operations NCEP Environmental Modeling Center Operations (+$2.8M)(+$2.8M)

Insufficient base resources to support current operational modelsInsufficient base resources to support current operational models

55% of EMC currently supported through 55% of EMC currently supported through “external funding”, “external funding”, including basic model maintenanceincluding basic model maintenance

Uncertain nature of external funding Uncertain nature of external funding adds unacceptable adds unacceptable risk to sustaining NWS operations risk to sustaining NWS operations

NOAA review concluded base funding should be increased from 45% to 75% to NOAA review concluded base funding should be increased from 45% to 75% to mitigate risk to operational supportmitigate risk to operational support

NWS

Other NOAA

Non-NOAA

Current Funding SourceCurrent Funding Source

NWS45%

Other NOAA46%

Non-NOAA9%

Restore Environmental Observing ServicesRestore Environmental Observing Services(+$6.0M)(+$6.0M)

Have not received adjustments for Have not received adjustments for inflation since 1996inflation since 1996

Greater demand for NESDIS productsGreater demand for NESDIS products

Unfunded product increases complexity; Unfunded product increases complexity; no resources to cover this increaseno resources to cover this increase

Pending Requests For NESDIS Products February 16, 2000

Pending Requests For NESDIS Products February 16, 2000

GOES ImageryGOES Low Density WindsPOES Imagery

TOVS Sounding

DMSP Shared Processing ProductsPOES Sea Surface Temperatures

Hand-drawn weekly snow & iceFAA/USGS Volcanic Ash Support

GOES Sounder ProductsGOES High Density WindsPOES aerosols, Ozone, and NVDIRadiation BudgetGMS ImageryINDOEX ImageryiNSAT ImageryATOVS SoundingsSSM/T-2 SoundingsERS, ADEOS, & QuikCAT Ocean WindsCoastWatch ProgramGOES Sea Surface TemperaturesOcean ColorCoral Reef (Bleaching)Altimetry (sea hgt, geostrophic currents)Multi-spacecraft daily snow & iceVolcanic Ash Advisory CenterHazardous Support SystemSatellite Active Archive/Pathfinder

Environmental Satellite ProductsEnvironmental Satellite Products

Early 1990’sEarly 1990’s CurrentCurrent

05

101520

25303540

1996 1997 1998 1999

No. ofProductsNo. ofProducts

Year RequestedYear Requested

Restore Environmental Observing ServicesRestore Environmental Observing Services(+$6.0M)(+$6.0M)

Impact of not restoring fundingImpact of not restoring funding Increased risk to spacecraft data, health, and safetyIncreased risk to spacecraft data, health, and safety

Extended outages and degraded performanceExtended outages and degraded performance

Freeze in current product technology; delays in delivery of Freeze in current product technology; delays in delivery of new satellite products to forecast officesnew satellite products to forecast offices

NWS forecast improvements will stagnate without benefits of NWS forecast improvements will stagnate without benefits of satellite datasatellite data

Commercial Remote Sensing Licensing (+$1.7M)Commercial Remote Sensing Licensing (+$1.7M)

Statutory responsibility for licensing and enforcementStatutory responsibility for licensing and enforcement

Potential Congressional or Administration intervention for Potential Congressional or Administration intervention for failure to adequately administer these responsibilitiesfailure to adequately administer these responsibilities

Funds would have to be redirected from other critical NOAA Funds would have to be redirected from other critical NOAA mission responsibilitiesmission responsibilities

Projected LaunchesProjected Launches

System Earliest LaunchQuikBird-1 early 2000QuikBird-2 mid/late 2000OrbView-3 mid/late 2000OrbView-4 late 2000NEMO mid/late 2001Astrovision late 2001Radar-1 mid 2002Resource 21 2003

U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP)U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP)(+$16.4M)(+$16.4M)

What?What? Focused program of research, Focused program of research,

demonstration, operational demonstration, operational implementation, and user implementation, and user outreach focused on:outreach focused on:

HurricanesHurricanes Quantitative Precipitation Quantitative Precipitation

ForecastsForecasts Data Assimilation; Optimal Mix Data Assimilation; Optimal Mix

of Observationsof Observations

Implementation plans Implementation plans completed for HAL and completed for HAL and QPF/Optimal MixQPF/Optimal Mix

Hurricane Floyd 9/13/99Hurricane Floyd 9/13/99


Why?Why? Critical forecast and research Critical forecast and research

issues associated with hurricane issues associated with hurricane track, intensity, and QPF remain!track, intensity, and QPF remain!

• Total evacuation costs from Floyd $1B

• Insured losses from Floyd $1B

Source: FEMA


Why?Why? (cont)(cont)

Precipitation is at the heart of Precipitation is at the heart of most hazardous weather and most hazardous weather and major property lossmajor property loss

Improved forecasts require an Improved forecasts require an improved analysis of all improved analysis of all available dataavailable data

Observed SnowfallObserved Snowfall

24 Hour Forecast Totals from 12Z 24 Jan


24 Hr Forecast Valid12Z 25 Jan.







ActionsActions Tie specifically to detailed USWRP implementation plans/5-year programTie specifically to detailed USWRP implementation plans/5-year program

Involve OAR Labs, NWS/NCEP, NESDIS/ORA in specific field programs for Atlantic Involve OAR Labs, NWS/NCEP, NESDIS/ORA in specific field programs for Atlantic (HAL) and Pacific (extend forecast accuracy/QPF); Leverage NASA, NSF and DoD (HAL) and Pacific (extend forecast accuracy/QPF); Leverage NASA, NSF and DoD supported researchsupported research

Focus on enhanced data assimilation with satellite and targeted observations; Focus on enhanced data assimilation with satellite and targeted observations; Build off NASA/NOAA White PaperBuild off NASA/NOAA White Paper

Create NCEP/EMC Testbed; Accelerate technology infusion; Link to NASA/NOAA Create NCEP/EMC Testbed; Accelerate technology infusion; Link to NASA/NOAA Center for Satellite Data AssimilationCenter for Satellite Data Assimilation

Incorporate satellites, radar, and targeted aircraft observations (e.g., G-IV and Incorporate satellites, radar, and targeted aircraft observations (e.g., G-IV and operational reconnaissance aircraft)operational reconnaissance aircraft)

Mid and Low Level WindsMid and Low Level Winds Upper Level WindsUpper Level Winds


Expected ResultsExpected Results

Implement research and operational assessment (USWRP Plan for HAL)Implement research and operational assessment (USWRP Plan for HAL) Support HAL multi-year field programsSupport HAL multi-year field programs Reduce landfall track and intensity forecasts error by 20%Reduce landfall track and intensity forecasts error by 20% Increase warning leadtime to and beyond 24 h with 95% confidence without Increase warning leadtime to and beyond 24 h with 95% confidence without

increasing the present 3 to 1 overwarningincreasing the present 3 to 1 overwarning Make skillful (compared to persistence) forecasts of onset Make skillful (compared to persistence) forecasts of onset

of galeof gale(34-kt) and hurricane force (64-kt) radii out to 48 h(34-kt) and hurricane force (64-kt) radii out to 48 h



Implement research and operational assessment (USWRP Plan Implement research and operational assessment (USWRP Plan for QPF and Optimal Mix)for QPF and Optimal Mix)

Support Pacific THORPEX field programSupport Pacific THORPEX field program Extend skill of forecasts at Day 5, 6, 7 by two full daysExtend skill of forecasts at Day 5, 6, 7 by two full days Extend QPFs out to 3 days and improve Extend QPFs out to 3 days and improve

skill of day 1-3 QPFs to improve skill of day 1-3 QPFs to improve inland flooding inland flooding forecastsforecasts

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)(+$6.1M)(+$6.1M)

What?What? Improve flood and river predictions to move people out of harm’s way (longer lead times; Improve flood and river predictions to move people out of harm’s way (longer lead times;

probabilistic river forecast information for risk-based decisions)probabilistic river forecast information for risk-based decisions) Enhance snow-water equivalent observations for Spring floodingEnhance snow-water equivalent observations for Spring flooding

Why?Why? 75 percent of Presidentially- declared disasters are flood 75 percent of Presidentially- declared disasters are flood

related related Respond to user needs for improved river stage Respond to user needs for improved river stage

forecasts forecasts Capitalize on $1M in FY 2001 President’s budgetCapitalize on $1M in FY 2001 President’s budget AccelerateAccelerate implementation across the country at implementation across the country at

reduced costsreduced costs

NWS River Forecast Service LocationsNWS River Forecast Service Locations


Previous Program ServicesPrevious Program Services Basin by basin implementationBasin by basin implementation

Fund full calibration at all basinsFund full calibration at all basins

Use static modelUse static model Services delivered only when all components are readyServices delivered only when all components are ready

Graphical productsGraphical products Forecasts with probability levelsForecasts with probability levels Inundation mapping at 10% of forecasts locationsInundation mapping at 10% of forecasts locations

Limited snow dataLimited snow data

Total Cost = $106M

New Program ServicesNew Program Services Faster nationwide implementationFaster nationwide implementation

Use existing RFC model calibration at 60% of forecast Use existing RFC model calibration at 60% of forecast locationslocations

Fund full calibration at remaining 40% forecast locationsFund full calibration at remaining 40% forecast locations Provide initial graphical services at 12 versus 2 River Provide initial graphical services at 12 versus 2 River

Forecast Centers in FY00Forecast Centers in FY00

Infuse new hydrologic/hydraulic modelsInfuse new hydrologic/hydraulic models

Incremental service deliveryIncremental service delivery Graphical products available when initial calibration is Graphical products available when initial calibration is

ready for a forecast locationready for a forecast location Predictions with probability information available when Predictions with probability information available when

full calibration ready for a forecast locationfull calibration ready for a forecast location Inundation maps available at all forecast sites when Inundation maps available at all forecast sites when

partners provide topographic datapartners provide topographic data

Expand snow water equivalent dataExpand snow water equivalent data

Total Cost = $44M


ActionsActions

Provide National delivery of web-ready Provide National delivery of web-ready graphical productsgraphical products

Infuse new hydrology and hydraulic Infuse new hydrology and hydraulic models into operations models into operations

Refresh operational softwareRefresh operational software

Partnered inundation mappingPartnered inundation mapping

Collect snow-water equivalent Collect snow-water equivalent data nationwide data nationwide

Provide training/outreachProvide training/outreach

VerificationVerification

National Airborne Snow Surveys

• 500 present airborne measurements/year• 3300 proposed airborne measurements/year(including 670 new measurements in Alaska)



Extend current 1, 2, 3 day river forecasts out to 2 Extend current 1, 2, 3 day river forecasts out to 2 weeks and beyondweeks and beyond

Provide river forecasts with uncertainty information Provide river forecasts with uncertainty information for for risk-based decisionsrisk-based decisions

Expected savings $600M/yearExpected savings $600M/year

$200M/year in flood losses$200M/year in flood losses

$400M/year in water resources$400M/year in water resources

Aviation ServicesAviation Services(+$10.1M)(+$10.1M)

What?What?

Improve accuracy, timeliness, and utility of aviation forecasts and Improve accuracy, timeliness, and utility of aviation forecasts and warnings/ reduce false alarm rateswarnings/ reduce false alarm rates

Why?Why?

Meets constituent demands for Meets constituent demands for improved servicesimproved services

Supports White House Commission Supports White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Securityon Aviation Safety and Security

Addresses FAA / TMU Addresses FAA / TMU “Needs Document”“Needs Document”

Aviation Forecasts have not Aviation Forecasts have not improved in the past 20 yearsimproved in the past 20 years

Large economic losses due to air Large economic losses due to air traffic delaystraffic delays

Contribute to a coordinated federal effort that meets expectations of Contribute to a coordinated federal effort that meets expectations of commercial and private aviation communitycommercial and private aviation community

050

100150200250300350400450500

Tornado WarningLead Time

Flash Flood WarningLead Time

Aviation Forecasts

% Improvement Since 1987% Improvement Since 1987

Per

cen

tP

erce

nt

ServicesServices

NoNoImprovementImprovement

400%400%

200%200%


ActionsActions Acquire new observing toolsAcquire new observing tools

Airborne Humidity and Airborne Humidity and Turbulence Sensors Turbulence Sensors (through MDCRS), (through MDCRS),

Millimeter cloud radar Millimeter cloud radar (test and demonstrate)(test and demonstrate)

Develop advanced Develop advanced techniques / productstechniques / products

Develop flight level guidance Develop flight level guidance productsproducts

Augment Aviation testbeds at AWC Augment Aviation testbeds at AWC and AAVUand AAVU

Develop products for detection and Develop products for detection and alerts of volcanic ashalerts of volcanic ash

Develop new graphical productsDevelop new graphical products

UsersUsers

R&DR&DNWSNWS

CWSUsCWSUs

AWCAAWUAWCAAWU

WFOsWFOs

Airline DispatchersFAA/Flight Service Stations

Airline DispatchersFAA/Flight Service Stations

FAA/ControllersFAA/Controllers

PilotsPilots

NASA/AWINNASA/AWIN

FAA/Safer SkiesFAA/Safer Skies

Universities/

NOAA/ERLUniversitie

s/

NOAA/ERL

ImprovedImprovedObservations,Observations,Forecasts, &Forecasts, &

WarningsWarnings


Expected Results/BenefitsExpected Results/Benefits

Reduce costly delays and aviation accident ratesReduce costly delays and aviation accident rates

Improved icing, turbulence and volcanic ash forecastsImproved icing, turbulence and volcanic ash forecasts

Capitalize on complementary science and technology advances Capitalize on complementary science and technology advances to yield improved aviation weather products (TAFS, TWEBS, to yield improved aviation weather products (TAFS, TWEBS, AWW, LAA, enroute aviation warnings and areal forecasts)AWW, LAA, enroute aviation warnings and areal forecasts)

Accelerate science and technology infusionAccelerate science and technology infusion

Technology Infusion ProgramTechnology Infusion Program(+$6.0M)(+$6.0M)

What?What? Establish a Technology Infusion Establish a Technology Infusion

Program to replace NWS Field Program to replace NWS Field Systems with state-of-the-art systems Systems with state-of-the-art systems at lower costsat lower costs

Why?Why? Keeps technology current, flexible, Keeps technology current, flexible,

efficient and inexpensive to upgradeefficient and inexpensive to upgrade

Necessary to avoid another major Necessary to avoid another major modernization effortmodernization effort

Builds on existing infrastructure at Builds on existing infrastructure at NWS, FSL, NSSL and NCEPNWS, FSL, NSSL and NCEP

1995 2005

HPUX LinuxHP PC-64Speed=1 Speed=45100Megabit Gigabit300 Gbyte 500 Gbyte

Technology Comparison - NWS Field SystemTechnology Comparison - NWS Field System

Technology Infusion ProgramTechnology Infusion Program(+$6.0M)(+$6.0M)

ActionsActions

Sustain development and demonstration of new technology for Sustain development and demonstration of new technology for NWS Field SystemsNWS Field Systems

Prototype and risk reduction (develop 5 testbeds)Prototype and risk reduction (develop 5 testbeds)


More flexible field system upgrade at lower costsMore flexible field system upgrade at lower costs

Technological basis for advanced, accurate, timely, detailed Technological basis for advanced, accurate, timely, detailed forecasts and warningsforecasts and warnings

Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationJoint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation(+$3.0M)(+$3.0M)

What?What? NOAA component of proposed NASA/NOAA Center for Satellite Data AssimilationNOAA component of proposed NASA/NOAA Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

Why?Why? Need to accelerate the use of satellite Need to accelerate the use of satellite

data in numerical weather prediction modelsdata in numerical weather prediction models

NWS uses only about 15% of available NWS uses only about 15% of available satellite datasatellite data

Upcoming explosion in advanced instruments Upcoming explosion in advanced instruments and data will challenge entire and data will challenge entire research community (NPOES; research community (NPOES; GPS; Lidar winds; Microwave) GPS; Lidar winds; Microwave)

Need coordination of intellectual resources Need coordination of intellectual resources (NESDIS, NWS, OAR - with NASA / DAO) (NESDIS, NWS, OAR - with NASA / DAO)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

GOES

EOS-Chem

AMSR, TMI, SSM/IS,WindSatMETOP - IASI,GOMEMETOP-NOAAInstrumentsAIRS

MODIS

NOAA-K Series

Satellite Data Volumes (Gb/day)Satellite Data Volumes (Gb/day)

Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationJoint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation(+$3.0M)(+$3.0M)

ActionsActions Establish joint center (with NASA as Establish joint center (with NASA as

partner)partner)

Address “emissivity over land” issue to Address “emissivity over land” issue to expand utilization of satellite radiancesexpand utilization of satellite radiances

Create “forward radiance transfer models” Create “forward radiance transfer models” for all new instruments; OPTRANS for all new instruments; OPTRANS extensionsextensions

Focus on data assimilation (e.g., GPS, Focus on data assimilation (e.g., GPS, GIFTS)GIFTS)

OSSE evaluation for advanced OSSE evaluation for advanced instrumentationinstrumentation

Expected ResultsExpected Results Improved weather forecastsImproved weather forecasts

Expanded use of satellite dataExpanded use of satellite data

Extension of range of useful forecastsExtension of range of useful forecasts

More accurate short-term mesoscale forecast - More accurate short-term mesoscale forecast - severe weathersevere weather

Improved planning of future satellite instrumentsImproved planning of future satellite instruments

Space Weather Operational Product SuiteSpace Weather Operational Product Suite(+$4.0M)(+$4.0M)

What?What? Integrate space weather forecasts into the NWS operational Integrate space weather forecasts into the NWS operational

product suiteproduct suite

Why?Why? Space weather operations Space weather operations

are mature but limited by are mature but limited by not being integrated into not being integrated into the full NWS infrastructure the full NWS infrastructure (comms, training, customer (comms, training, customer outreach through WFO)outreach through WFO)

Space Weather Operational Product SuiteSpace Weather Operational Product Suite(+$4.0M)(+$4.0M)

ActionsActions Establish NCEP funding for space weather operationsEstablish NCEP funding for space weather operations Produce operational space weather alerts, warnings and Produce operational space weather alerts, warnings and

forecastsforecasts Develop a space weather training program for NWS staffDevelop a space weather training program for NWS staff Transmit space weather products through NWS communications Transmit space weather products through NWS communications

linklink Develop outreach programDevelop outreach program

Expected Results/BenefitsExpected Results/Benefits Easier and uniform access to NOAA’s Easier and uniform access to NOAA’s

environmental productsenvironmental products

Tsunami Hazard Mitigation (+$2.3M)Tsunami Hazard Mitigation (+$2.3M)

What?What? Improved tsunami warning forecasts (longer lead times, wave height Improved tsunami warning forecasts (longer lead times, wave height

predictions) and improved planning at local levelpredictions) and improved planning at local level

Why?Why? Current NOAA product of tsunami time Current NOAA product of tsunami time

of arrival is inadequate to protect life of arrival is inadequate to protect life and property for threatened and property for threatened communities communities

NOAA false alarm rate is too highNOAA false alarm rate is too high Continues program funded by Continues program funded by

Congress since FY 1997Congress since FY 1997

Tsunami Hazard Mitigation (+$2.3M)Tsunami Hazard Mitigation (+$2.3M)

ActionsActions Operate and maintain 6 deep ocean tsunami detection systemsOperate and maintain 6 deep ocean tsunami detection systems Produce tsunami inundation and evacuation mapsProduce tsunami inundation and evacuation maps Develop education and mitigation program in concert with FEMA’s all Develop education and mitigation program in concert with FEMA’s all

hazards programhazards program

Expected Results/BenefitsExpected Results/Benefits Faster, more accurate tsunami warningsFaster, more accurate tsunami warnings Improved understanding and reaction to Improved understanding and reaction to

tsunamis by coastal communitiestsunamis by coastal communities Reduction in false alarmsReduction in false alarms Sustain support for long-term tsunami hazard Sustain support for long-term tsunami hazard

mitigationmitigation

Hazard Assessment (Response and Mitigation)Hazard Assessment (Response and Mitigation)(+$6.4M)(+$6.4M)

What?What? A program to develop, test and implement satellite-based products to identify A program to develop, test and implement satellite-based products to identify

potential risk of hazardous events (drought, fire, floods, pollution, heat, etc.)potential risk of hazardous events (drought, fire, floods, pollution, heat, etc.)

Why?Why? Disaster costs are high and rising (1992-Disaster costs are high and rising (1992-

1996 averaged $54.3B/year)1996 averaged $54.3B/year)

Emergency managers need early warning Emergency managers need early warning to plan for response and mitigationto plan for response and mitigation

Potential exists to provide global outlooks Potential exists to provide global outlooks and and assessments for hazardous assessments for hazardous events; develop product suite applicable for GDINevents; develop product suite applicable for GDIN

Hazard Assessment (Response and Mitigation)Hazard Assessment (Response and Mitigation)(+$6.4M)(+$6.4M)

ActionsActions Develop and validate hazard risk Develop and validate hazard risk

assessment products based on satellite assessment products based on satellite observationobservation

Provide experimental products and Provide experimental products and response servicesresponse services

Transfer product suite to National Disaster Transfer product suite to National Disaster Information Center for FY 2006 operationsInformation Center for FY 2006 operations

Expected Results/BenefitsExpected Results/Benefits Establish global alert; improve planning for Establish global alert; improve planning for

potential natural hazard eventspotential natural hazard events

Provide real time support during hazardous Provide real time support during hazardous eventsevents

Expand utility of satellite observationsExpand utility of satellite observations

Space Weather Infrastructure and DevelopmentSpace Weather Infrastructure and Development(+$3.6M)(+$3.6M)

What?What? Continuous data acquisition and Continuous data acquisition and

decision aids for space weather decision aids for space weather forecastingforecasting

Why?Why? Lack of an established mechanism to Lack of an established mechanism to

convert mature research models into convert mature research models into operational forecasts toolsoperational forecasts tools

Need to upgrade data management Need to upgrade data management systemsystem

Need to fill gaps in real-time satellite Need to fill gaps in real-time satellite trackingtracking

Space Weather Infrastructure and DevelopmentSpace Weather Infrastructure and Development(+$3.6M)(+$3.6M)

ActionsActions Acquire new database system and ground stationAcquire new database system and ground station

Develop decision aids such as SCAN for space weatherDevelop decision aids such as SCAN for space weather

Increase awareness of space weather impactsIncrease awareness of space weather impacts

Support archival of new dataSupport archival of new data

Expected Results/BenefitsExpected Results/Benefits Flexible, modern data management systemFlexible, modern data management system

Continuous and reliable operational, non-NOAA data acquisitionContinuous and reliable operational, non-NOAA data acquisition

Better, more timely forecast with wider dissemination to usersBetter, more timely forecast with wider dissemination to users

P A CP A C

PAC SummaryPAC Summary($ in Millions)($ in Millions)

NOAA Science Center NOAA Science Center ** .5.5

NWS Telecommunications Gateway Modernization NWS Telecommunications Gateway Modernization ** 6.16.1

G-IV Instrumentation Upgrade G-IV Instrumentation Upgrade ** 6.96.9

NOAA Aircraft (P-3/Turbo Commander) NOAA Aircraft (P-3/Turbo Commander) ** 5.55.5

NEXRAD NEXRAD .3.3

ASOSASOS 2.52.5

AWIPSAWIPS 1.31.3

Central Computer UpgradeCentral Computer Upgrade 5.05.0

WFO ConstructionWFO Construction 6.16.1

NOAA Weather RadioNOAA Weather Radio .5 .5

GOES I-MGOES I-M

GOES N-QGOES N-Q

Polar K-NPolar K-NPolar ConvergencePolar Convergence

* Represents new PAC items* Represents new PAC items

** Awaiting NASA Pricing** Awaiting NASA Pricing

FY 02 FY 02 Increase/DecreaseIncrease/Decrease(from OMB Ceiling)(from OMB Ceiling)

********

NOAA Science Center Facility (+$.5M)NOAA Science Center Facility (+$.5M)

$1.0M total request$1.0M total request

World Weather Building inadequate to meet NCEP infrastructure support World Weather Building inadequate to meet NCEP infrastructure support requirementsrequirements

crowded vintage 1973 work spacecrowded vintage 1973 work space inadequate environmental controlsinadequate environmental controls cannot facilitate synergistic interaction with research communitycannot facilitate synergistic interaction with research community

Initial funding for requirements development, alternatives, and other Initial funding for requirements development, alternatives, and other studies for a new state-of-the-art NOAA Science Centerstudies for a new state-of-the-art NOAA Science Center

Joint effort between NCEP, NESDIS, and OARJoint effort between NCEP, NESDIS, and OAR

NASA interaction: Facilitate Joint NASA/NOAA Center for Satellite Data NASA interaction: Facilitate Joint NASA/NOAA Center for Satellite Data AssimilationAssimilation

PACPAC

NOAA Science Center Facility (+$.5M)NOAA Science Center Facility (+$.5M)Project Development, Approval, and Management (PDAM)Project Development, Approval, and Management (PDAM)

ProcessProcess

PrePre

PlanningPlanning

ScopingScoping

LeaseLeaseAcquisitionAcquisition

DesignDesign&&

ConstructionConstruction

OccupancyOccupancy

CurrentCurrentStatusStatus

DP2DP2DUS ApprovalDUS Approval

PlanningPlanning

DP1DP1AA ApprovalAA Approval

NWS Telecommunications Gateway (NWSTG)NWS Telecommunications Gateway (NWSTG)Legacy System Modernization (+$6.1M)Legacy System Modernization (+$6.1M)

Critical link in national and international Critical link in national and international infrastructure that collects and distributes infrastructure that collects and distributes weather data weather data

10 year old system, nearing 10 year old system, nearing effective life cycleeffective life cycle

Operating system for message Operating system for message switching 1950’s technologyswitching 1950’s technology

NWP, radar, and internet data volumes increasingNWP, radar, and internet data volumes increasing

System requirementsSystem requirements

Data processing: 700GB by FY 2002 for NWP and radarData processing: 700GB by FY 2002 for NWP and radar Processing speed: warnings - 10 sec/watches - 1 minProcessing speed: warnings - 10 sec/watches - 1 min Reliability: 99.9%Reliability: 99.9%

PACPAC

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q1FY00

Q4FY00

Q4FY02

Daily Volume - GBDai

ly V

olu

me

Dai

ly V

olu

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NWP/Radar Data VolumeNWP/Radar Data Volume

NWS Telecommunications Gateway (NWSTG)NWS Telecommunications Gateway (NWSTG)Legacy System Modernization (+$6.1M)Legacy System Modernization (+$6.1M)

40

22000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

CurrentCapability

Jan. 25 SnowStorm Demand

Internet Server DemandInternet Server Demand

Use

r A

cces

ses/

Sec

ond

Use

r A

cces

ses/

Sec

ond

ActionsActions

Upgrade system hardware Upgrade system hardware

Increase disk storage Increase disk storage

Replace communication Replace communication matrix switch matrix switch

Upgrade LAN and interface Upgrade LAN and interface cards cards

Router upgrades Router upgrades

Enhanced softwareEnhanced software

G-IV Instrumentation Upgrade (+$6.9M)G-IV Instrumentation Upgrade (+$6.9M)

Observations from G-IV proven to be valuable tool in Observations from G-IV proven to be valuable tool in forecasting hurricane and winter storm tracksforecasting hurricane and winter storm tracks

One-year funding for C-Band Scatterometer/Doppler One-year funding for C-Band Scatterometer/Doppler ProfilerProfiler

Instrument will provide jet with the capability of Instrument will provide jet with the capability of describing entire vertical and horizontal storm structure describing entire vertical and horizontal storm structure critical to the warning processcritical to the warning process

Important asset to meet objectives of “Hurricane at Important asset to meet objectives of “Hurricane at Landfall” component of the U.S. Weather Research Landfall” component of the U.S. Weather Research ProgramProgram

PACPAC

Hurricane LuisHurricane Luis

PACPAC

Vertical Cross Section - Wind Speeds

Upper Level Divergence Lower Level Convergence

NOAA Aircraft (P3/Turbo Commander)NOAA Aircraft (P3/Turbo Commander) (+$5.5M) (+$5.5M)

Replenish P3 maintenance account (cracked wing spars)Replenish P3 maintenance account (cracked wing spars) $4.0M$4.0M

Conduct P3 service life extension studyConduct P3 service life extension study $0.5M$0.5M

Refurbish Turbo Commander for snow surveysRefurbish Turbo Commander for snow surveys $1.0M$1.0M

Aircraft 26 years old and is oldest aircraft in NOAA fleetAircraft 26 years old and is oldest aircraft in NOAA fleet

PACPAC

Turbo CommanderTurbo Commander

P3P3

NEXRAD Product Improvement EnhancementsNEXRAD Product Improvement Enhancements(+$0.3M)(+$0.3M)


Profile change:Profile change:

Implement new algorithms in WSR-88D Precipitation Processing Implement new algorithms in WSR-88D Precipitation Processing Subsystem to improve quality of rainfall productsSubsystem to improve quality of rainfall products (particularly in cool (particularly in cool season and in mountainous areas)season and in mountainous areas)

Improve radar signal qualityImprove radar signal quality (techniques for range/velocity uncertainty (techniques for range/velocity uncertainty mitigation)mitigation)

Distinguish among rain, snow and hail (dual polarization Distinguish among rain, snow and hail (dual polarization improvements)improvements)

Replace radio frequency generator and analog receiver (digital) Replace radio frequency generator and analog receiver (digital) beginning beginning in FY03in FY03

PACPAC

NEXRAD Product Improvement EnhancementsNEXRAD Product Improvement Enhancements(+$0.3M)(+$0.3M)

ActionsActions

Complete Open Systems Radar Product Generator (ORPG) Complete Open Systems Radar Product Generator (ORPG) acquisition and deployment at 125 sitesacquisition and deployment at 125 sites

Begin Open Systems Radar Data Acquisition (ORDA) with 31 Begin Open Systems Radar Data Acquisition (ORDA) with 31 unitsunits

Begin FAA radar integrationBegin FAA radar integration

Begin level II data archiveBegin level II data archive

ASOS Product Improvement (+$2.5M)ASOS Product Improvement (+$2.5M)


Critical Technology Infusion Program Critical Technology Infusion Program necessary to meet NWS and necessary to meet NWS and FAA requirementsFAA requirements


Restore acquisition profile to maintain Restore acquisition profile to maintain schedule goals/prioritiesschedule goals/priorities

All Weather Precipitation GageAll Weather Precipitation Gage (FY02 Completion)(FY02 Completion) Dewpoint SensorDewpoint Sensor (FY02 Completion)(FY02 Completion) Processor UpgradeProcessor Upgrade (FY03 Completion)(FY03 Completion) Ice Free Wind SensorIce Free Wind Sensor (FY04 Completion)(FY04 Completion)

PACPAC

ASOS Product Improvement (+$2.5M)ASOS Product Improvement (+$2.5M)

ActionsActions

Complete deployment of 300 all weather precipitation gagesComplete deployment of 300 all weather precipitation gages

Complete deployment of 180 dewpoint sensorsComplete deployment of 180 dewpoint sensors

Advanced Weather Interactive Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)Processing System (AWIPS)

(+$1.3M)(+$1.3M)



Restore NCEP and OCONUS AWIPS profileRestore NCEP and OCONUS AWIPS profile

Accommodate unique NCEP and Off-CONUS requirements:Accommodate unique NCEP and Off-CONUS requirements:

– Handle high resolution model dataHandle high resolution model data– Global data scalesGlobal data scales– Graphical products generationGraphical products generation

Provide warning decision and radar algorithm trainingProvide warning decision and radar algorithm training

– Necessary to implement AWIPS NEXRAD ORPG ingestNecessary to implement AWIPS NEXRAD ORPG ingest

PACPAC

Advanced Weather Interactive Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)Processing System (AWIPS)

(+$1.3M)(+$1.3M)

ActionsActions

Complete Build 5.0 development and implementationComplete Build 5.0 development and implementation

Continue established technology infusion program:Continue established technology infusion program: Open RPG ingestOpen RPG ingest NCEP/OCONUS capabilitiesNCEP/OCONUS capabilities Hydromet decision assistanceHydromet decision assistance Catastrophic backup for NCF, master ground station, Catastrophic backup for NCF, master ground station,

terrestrial linesterrestrial lines Increased communications bandwidth for enhanced NWP Increased communications bandwidth for enhanced NWP

products/central radar collectionproducts/central radar collection

Central Computing Upgrades (+$5.0M)Central Computing Upgrades (+$5.0M)


Address $5.0M acquisition shortfall in FY02 to meet NWP and Climate Address $5.0M acquisition shortfall in FY02 to meet NWP and Climate Forecasting RequirementsForecasting Requirements

Provides $15.0M annual total NWP/Climate investment (excluding Provides $15.0M annual total NWP/Climate investment (excluding maintenance and communications)maintenance and communications)

Implement NWP improvements as plannedImplement NWP improvements as planned 5Km Hurricane Forecast (FY02)5Km Hurricane Forecast (FY02) 2Km Regional Storm Scale Model (FY02)2Km Regional Storm Scale Model (FY02) Weather Research Model (FY03)Weather Research Model (FY03) 40Km Global Model (FY03)40Km Global Model (FY03) Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere (FY04)Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere (FY04)

ActionsActions

Acquire next generation HPC systemAcquire next generation HPC system Complete lease payments on Class VIII systemComplete lease payments on Class VIII system

PACPAC

WFO Construction (+$6.1M)WFO Construction (+$6.1M)



Restore WFO retrofits for HVAC, UPSRestore WFO retrofits for HVAC, UPS

Restore Pacific facilities modernization programRestore Pacific facilities modernization program

Hilo DCO facilityHilo DCO facility

Restore Alaska facilities modernization programRestore Alaska facilities modernization program

Annette studiesAnnette studies

Cold Bay WSO and employee housingCold Bay WSO and employee housing

St.Paul employee housingSt.Paul employee housing

Alaska Tsunami Warning Center ConstructionAlaska Tsunami Warning Center Construction

Kotzebue WSO and employee housingKotzebue WSO and employee housing

PACPAC

WFO Construction (+$6.1M)WFO Construction (+$6.1M)

ActionsActions

Key West designKey West design

Caribou post award provisionsCaribou post award provisions

Continue WFO HVAC retrofitsContinue WFO HVAC retrofits

Begin UPS upgradesBegin UPS upgrades

Alaska/Pacific projectsAlaska/Pacific projects

Hilo DCO facilityHilo DCO facility

Annette studiesAnnette studies

Cold Bay WSO and employee housingCold Bay WSO and employee housing

St.Paul employee housingSt.Paul employee housing

Alaska Tsunami Warning Center ConstructionAlaska Tsunami Warning Center Construction

Kotzebue WSO and employee housingKotzebue WSO and employee housing

NOAA Weather Radio (for hearing impaired)NOAA Weather Radio (for hearing impaired)(+$.5M)(+$.5M)


Add capability to transmit digital data (text) for the hearing impairedAdd capability to transmit digital data (text) for the hearing impaired

Addresses NWS strategic plan goal to increase NWR coverage to 100% for Addresses NWS strategic plan goal to increase NWR coverage to 100% for hazardous high hazardous high risk populations which includes the risk populations which includes the hearing impairedhearing impaired

ActionsActions Award contractAward contract Begin network upgrades at a rate of 170 per year - Begin network upgrades at a rate of 170 per year -

completion in FY06 completion in FY06 Acquire an additional 30 NWR TransmittersAcquire an additional 30 NWR Transmitters

PACPAC

Geostationary SystemGeostationary System

GOES I - M: Continue production of GOES L and M satellites, GOES I - M: Continue production of GOES L and M satellites, related launch services and ground systems, product developmentrelated launch services and ground systems, product development

GOES N - Q: Continue production of up to four additional satellites GOES N - Q: Continue production of up to four additional satellites beyond the GOES I through M series currently in productionbeyond the GOES I through M series currently in production

Planning Launch Schedule - Geostationary SystemPlanning Launch Schedule - Geostationary System

GOES - LGOES - L

GOES - MGOES - M

GOES - NGOES - N

GOES - OGOES - O

GOES - PGOES - P

GOES - QGOES - Q

CY 2000CY 2000

CY 2002CY 2002

CY 2002CY 2002

CY 2005CY 2005

CY 2007CY 2007

CY 2010CY 2010

PACPAC

Polar-Orbiting SystemPolar-Orbiting System

NOAA Polar (L - N’): Continue procurement of Polar satellites, NOAA Polar (L - N’): Continue procurement of Polar satellites, instruments, launch services, and ground servicesinstruments, launch services, and ground services

Polar Convergence: Continue NOAA’s share of the Converged Polar Convergence: Continue NOAA’s share of the Converged NOAA/DoD/NASA programNOAA/DoD/NASA program

PACPAC

Planning Launch Schedule - Polar SystemPlanning Launch Schedule - Polar System

NOAA - LNOAA - L

NOAA - MNOAA - M

NOAA - NNOAA - N

NOAA - N’NOAA - N’

CY 2000CY 2000

CY 2001CY 2001

CY 2003CY 2003

CY 2008CY 2008

IssuesIssues

Align resources with accepted service Align resources with accepted service improvement goalsimprovement goals

SummarySummary

National Capabilities Funding ProfileNational Capabilities Funding Profile(changes over FY 2001 request; $ in millions)*(changes over FY 2001 request; $ in millions)*

Increment over FY 2001 - Positive or (negative)Increment over FY 2001 - Positive or (negative)

FY 2001 FY2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006Request Est. Est. Est. Est. Est.FY 2001 FY2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006Request Est. Est. Est. Est. Est.

*This may include both ORF and PAC*This may include both ORF and PAC

Research

OMB Planning Ceiling 65.2

10% Growth 28.8 41.2 49.0 55.8 65.8

Research


10% Growth 28.8 41.2 49.0 55.8 65.8

SummarySummary




Environmental Data &Information


10% Growth 0 0 0 0 0

Environmental Data &Information


10% Growth 0 0 0 0 0


SummarySummary




Observing Systems


10% Growth 58.7 72.3 145.2 175.3 219.8

Observing Systems


10% Growth 58.7 72.3 145.2 175.3 219.8


SummarySummary




Infrastructure


10% Growth 25.6 5.6 36.3 32.3 11.6

Infrastructure


10% Growth 25.6 5.6 36.3 32.3 11.6


NWS Telecommunication Gateway (NWSTG)NWS Telecommunication Gateway (NWSTG)Critical Infrastructure Protection (+$7.5m)Critical Infrastructure Protection (+$7.5m)

The critical link for data collection and distributionThe critical link for data collection and distribution

Does not comply with:Does not comply with: PDD-63 Critical Infrastructure ProtectionPDD-63 Critical Infrastructure Protection PDD-67 Continuity of GovernmentPDD-67 Continuity of Government

Single point of failureSingle point of failure

ActionsActions Create backup facilityCreate backup facility Budget request assumes locating at an owned siteBudget request assumes locating at an owned site Business contingency/continuity plan and site alternative analysis Business contingency/continuity plan and site alternative analysis

complete in FY01complete in FY01

NWS Telecommunication Gateway (NWSTG)NWS Telecommunication Gateway (NWSTG)Critical Infrastructure Protection (+$7.5m)Critical Infrastructure Protection (+$7.5m)

Impact of loss:Impact of loss:

NWS will be unable to carry out basic missionNWS will be unable to carry out basic mission

90% of observations required for weather prediction models will be 90% of observations required for weather prediction models will be unavailableunavailable

No provision of national radar data and weather prediction models to fieldNo provision of national radar data and weather prediction models to field

No provision of weather products to commercial users/vendorsNo provision of weather products to commercial users/vendors

No central provision of weather products over internetNo central provision of weather products over internet

No access/exchange of observations/products with other Nations or No access/exchange of observations/products with other Nations or Federal agenciesFederal agencies

NWS field offices limited to local observations onlyNWS field offices limited to local observations only

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