NRELisana*onallaboratoryoftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy,operatedbytheAllianceforSustainableEnergy,LLC.
AdvancedBiofuelsDevelopment:USASitua7onandIEABioenergy
Task39Progress
ABLCGLOBAL2018
JamesD.(Jim)McMillan,Ph.D.Na7onalBioenergyCenter
SanFrancisco,California,USA
7November,2018
2
• Introduction to IEA Bioenergy Task 39 • Status of Biofuels Production
o International o United States
• Emerging Opportunities / New Initiatives o To increase efficiency, maximize impacts
• Conclusions and Outlook
Outline
IEABioenergyTechnologyCollabora7onProgramme(TCP)Mission:Toincreaseknowledgeandunderstandingofbioenergysystemsinordertofacilitatethedeploymentof:§ environmentallysound
§ sociallyacceptableand§ cost-compe77vebioenergysystems
KeyRole:
Independentcollabora*vebodyfocusedondeliveringclearandverifiedinforma*ononbioenergy
3
TasksTask32-BiomassCombus7onandCo-firing
Task33-Gasifica7onofBiomassandWaste
Task34-DirectThermochemicalLiquefac7on
Task36-Integra*ngEnergyRecoveryintoSolidWasteManagementSystems
Task37-EnergyfromBiogas
Task38-ClimateChangeEffectsofBiomassandBioenergySystems
Task39-CommercialisingConven*onalandAdvancedLiquidBiofuels
Task40-SustainableBiomassMarketsandInterna*onalBioenergyTradetoSupporttheBiobasedEconomy
Task42-BiorefininginaFutureBioEconomy
Task43-BiomassFeedstocksforEnergyMarkets4
Membership-24Contrac7ngPar7esin2018
5
EUROPE:§ Austria§ Belgium§ Croa*a§ Denmark§ EuropeanCommission§ Estonia§ Finland§ France§ Germany§ Ireland§ Italy§ Netherlands§ Norway§ Sweden§ Switzerland§ UnitedKingdom
ASIA/OCEANIA/AFRICA
§ Australia§ Japan§ Korea§ NewZealand§ SouthAfrica
AMERICAS:§ Brazil§ Canada§ UnitedStates
2018 Budget: US$1.8 Million Tasks: 10 main tasks + ~6
joint/intertask projects Participants: ≥ 200 persons
In discussions: • China • India • Mexico
Membership-24Contrac7ngPar7esin2018
6
EUROPE:§ Austria§ Belgium§ Croa*a§ Denmark§ EuropeanCommission§ Estonia§ Finland§ France§ Germany§ Ireland§ Italy§ Netherlands§ Norway§ Sweden§ Switzerland§ UnitedKingdom
ASIA/OCEANIA/AFRICA
§ Australia§ Japan§ Korea§ NewZealand§ SouthAfrica
AMERICAS:§ Brazil§ Canada§ UnitedStates
2018 Budget: US$1.8 Million Tasks: 10 main tasks + ~6
joint/intertask projects Participants: ≥ 200 persons
In discussions: • China • India • Mexico
7
Catalyze Cooperative Research
State of Technology &
Trends Analysis
Policy, Market and Deployment
Analysis
Biofuel Deployment
and Information Sharing
IEA Bioenergy Task 39 Overview − 2016-2018 § Objective: “To facilitate commercialization of conventional and
advanced liquid biofuels”
§ Collaboration between 14 countries § Analyze policy, markets and sustainable biofuel implementation § Focus spanning Technical and Policy issues § Catalyze cooperative research and development § Ensure information dissemination & outreach with stakeholders
POLICY, MARKETS, SUSTAINABILITY & IMPLEMENTATION
TECHNOLOGY AND COMMERCIALIZATION
Commercializing Conventional and Advanced Liquid Biofuels from Biomass
8
IEA Bioenergy Task 39 Liquid biofuels focus 14 member countries 2016-2018 www.Task39.org
EuropeanCommission-LuisaMarelli,AdrianO‘Connell
Denmark-ClausFelby,MichaelPersson,AndersKristoffersen
Germany-FranziskaMueller-Langer,NicolausDahmen
TheNetherlands-TimoGerlagh,JohanvanDoesum
SouthKorea - JinSukLee,KyuYoungKang,SeonghunPark
Canada-JackSaddlerUnitedStates-JimMcMillan
Australia-SteveRogers
Austria - DinaBacovsky
Japan-SatoshiAramaki,ShiroSaka
SouthAfrica-EmilevanZyl
Sweden – TomasEkbom,LeifJonsson
NewZealand - IanSuckling
Brazil - AntonioBonomi
BiofuelsProduc7onStatus
10
Global Biofuels Production
Source:IEA2017TechnologyRoadmap-DeliveringSustainableBioenergy.Figure3.h]p://www.iea.org/publica*ons/freepublica*ons/publica*on/Technology_Roadmap_Delivering_Sustainable_Bioenergy.pdf
2006-2016
11
GlobalBiofuelsProduc7onMilliontonnesoilequalivent(Mtoe),2007-2017
Source:BPSta*s*calReviewofWorldEnergy,June2018.h]ps://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/sta*s*cal-review/bp-stats-review-2018-renewable-energy.pdf
èAmerica’sdominateworldproduc3on,feedstockconstrainsbiodiesel
12
UnitedStatesBiofuelsProduc7onUSEthanolProduc7on2000-201715Bgallons(57Bliters)
Source:RFA2017:h]p://www.ethanolrfa.org/resources/biorefinery-loca*ons/
Source:RFA2018:h]p://www.ethanolrfa.org/resources/biorefinery-loca*ons/
USEthanolPlantLoca7onsUSDieselBiofuelsProduc7on2011-2017
Source:EPA2017,Fig.V.B.2-1h]ps://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2017-07-21/pdf/2017-14632.pdf
2.5Bgallons(9.5Bliters)
• USremainsworld’s#1produceranduserofbiofuels,mostlystarch-basedethanolandlipid/fat-basedbiodiesels– In2017,produced~60BL(15.8Bgal)
ethanol,primarilyfromdomes*ccorngrain(~210facili*es)
– In2017,produced∼9.5BL(∼2.5Bgal)biodieselfuels(FAME+HVO/HEFA)fromdomes*candimportedoleaginousfeedstocks(~100facili*es)
13
• Majorpolicydrivers:TheUSfederalRenewableFuelStandard(RFS2)andCalifornia’sLowCarbonFuelStandard(LCFS)incen*vizeproduc*onoflowercarbonintensitybiofuels
• Challenges:– Petroleumpricestoolowsincemid-2014formostadvancedbiofuelstobeeconomicallycompe**ve;interestpickingupagainaspricesincrease
– Highcapitalcostsandlackofestablishedfeedstocksupplychains
– On-goingpolicyuncertaintyhinderingnewlargeinvestments
• Trends:– Manycompaniesredirec*ngRD&Dstrategytowardsmoreprofitablelowervolume,highermarginchemicals
– GrowingR&Donwastesasfeedstocksandnewcoproductsthatcanreducenetadvancedbiofuelsproduc*oncost(inmul*-productbiorefinerycontext)
USProduc7onofAdvancedBiofuels
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Cellu
losic
CNG
(Mill
ion
Gal)
Cellu
losic
Eth
anol
(Mill
ion
Gal)
US Advanced Biofuels Production - Cellulosic Feedstocks
D3 Cellulosic EthanolD3 Cellulosic CNG
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Rene
wab
le D
iese
l (M
illio
n Ga
l)
Naph
tha
(Mill
ion
Gal)
US Advanced Biofuels Production - Oleaginous Feedstocks
D5 NaphthaD4 Renewable DieselD6 Renewable Diesel
projected
14
GlobalBioenergyConsump7onin2015
Source:IEA2017TechnologyRoadmap-DeliveringSustainableBioenergy.Figure2.h]p://www.iea.org/publica*ons/freepublica*ons/publica*on/Technology_Roadmap_Delivering_Sustainable_Bioenergy.pdf
Consump*onofbiomassandwasteresourcesbyenduse(Exajoules)
15
MustDrama7callyIncreaseProduc7on!
Source:IEA2017TechnologyRoadmap-DeliveringSustainableBioenergy.Figure7.h]p://www.iea.org/publica*ons/freepublica*ons/publica*on/Technology_Roadmap_Delivering_Sustainable_Bioenergy.pdf
Bioenergyusein2015andinIEA’s2060“2DegreeScenario”(2DS)
èAchieving20602DSwillrequiremajorshiBsfromtradi3onaltomodernbioenergytechnologiesaswellaslargecapacityexpansionacrossallsectors,especiallybiofuels
EmergingOpportuni7es&NewIni7a7ves
17
MaximizingImpactAcrossProduc7onandUse
• be]erfuels.be]ervehicles.sooner.
Crosscuhngini7a7vetacklingfuelandengineinnova7ontoco-op7mizeperformance,maximizetransportefficiency.ResultstoinformfutureTCPstudiesofAdv.FuelsinAdv.Engines.
AdvancingR&Dto:• Bringaffordable,scalableadvancedbiofuelsandadvancedenginesolu*onstomarketmorequickly
• Improvefueleconomy15%–20%beyondtargetsofBAUR&Defforts
• Reducepetroleumuse,achievemassivecostsavingsannuallyviaimprovedfueleconomy
• Drama7callydecreasetransportsectorpollutantsandGHGemissions
Example:USDOE’sCo-Op7miza7onofFuelsandEnginesIni7a7ve“Co-op7ma”
Drawsoncollabora3veexper3seoftwoDOEresearchoffices,ninena3onallaboratories,andnumerousindustryand
academicpartners.
hnp://energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/co-op7miza7on-fuels-enginesEarlyfinding:A]rac*vecomboishigherethanol(octane)blendsinhighcompressionengines.
18
LeverageExis7ngRefiningInfrastructure
18
Example:Ensyn’sPyrolysisandPetroleumRefiningCoprocessingTechnology
h]ps://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/10/f33/Graham_0.pdf
19
UsingLowerCostCircularEconomyFeedstocksExample:Enerkem’sMSWtoAlcoholsGasifica7on&CatalysisTechnology
CourtesyofDr.HelenaChum(NREL)
20
CellulosicEthanolProduc7onfromCornFiber• Mul*pleroutesbeingcommercializedtoconvertsomeormostofthecornkernelfiberpresentincornethanoldrymillfacili*estocellulosicethanol(CE)− Lowercapitalinvestmentroutetocellulosicethanolalbeitvolumelimited
• USEPAD3RINdatashows2016CEproduc*onaveraged~1millionl/month,approx.doublingto2ML/monthin2017;con*nuingtoincreasein2018.
Source:K.Cagle(Novozmes).Bioeconomy2017conference,session1E:DrawingaRoadmaptoCellulosicBiofuelDeployment,July11,2017.
21
MarineBiofuelsMarketOpportunity
21
− SWOTanalysisformarinebiofuels
KeyFindings:• Largemarket:90%int’ltradeusesshipping
Pros• Rela*velyfewmajormarineportstosupply• Newmul*-fuelenginescanalsousealcoholbiofuels(e.g.,MeOH,EtOH)
Cons• Developmentremainschallengingbecausetes*ngrequires1)verylargevolumes;and2)effec*vecoordina*onamongfuelsproducers,enginebuildersandshipowners
• Marinebiofuelsiden7fiedasalarge,nearer-termopportunity− Mustreducesulfuremissions;mostbiofuelshavelowsulfurlevels− Manyshipenginescanuselowerspecifica*onfuels
• Task39report(2017)andwebinar(2018)“BiofuelsfortheMarineShippingSector”
Conclusions and Outlook
23
3. Manytechnologicallyadvancedroutesarewellproven,thougheconomicschallengedbyhighcapitalcosts;largeinvestmentsareriskygivenon-goinghighuncertaintyaboutfuturepolicy
4. Strategiestospeeddeploymentbeingpursued− Uselesscostly“circulareconomy”feedstocks(e.g.,gaseouswastes,cornfiber,MSW,etc.)
− Co-locateadvancedproduc*onwithexis*ngfacili*es(oilrefineriesorbiorefineries)
ConclusionsandOutlook1. Biofuelsremainessen*altodecarbonizeheavydutytransport2. Biofuelsproduc*onandusecon*nuetoincrease,bothgloballyandwithin
theUSA,albeitwellbelowtherateneededtoreachfuturedecarboniza*ontargets(e.g.,IEA’s2DS)
5. OutlookmixedforUStoremainworld’sleadproducer/user− Pro:Recentfederalini*a*vefornewlegisla*ontoapproveE15useyear-round− Con:Needssuppor*velong-termpolicyandthisremainselusive
7. Effec*veandstablelong-termpolicyiskeytorealizingfasterprogress
24
• IEABioenergyandespeciallyIEABioenergyTask39www.ieabioenergy.com&task39.ieabioenergy.com
• Interna7onalEnergyAgency(IEA)www.iea.org
• Interna7onalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)www.irena.org
• USEnergyInforma7onAdministra7on(EIA)www.eia.gov
• USDOE’sBioenergyTechnologiesOffice(BETO)www1.eere.energy.gov/bioenergy/
• USDOE-USDABiomassR&DIni7a7vewww.biomassboard.gov
• Alterna7veFuelsDataCenterwww.afdc.doe.gov
• Na7onalRenewableEnergyLaboratorywww.nrel.gov
More Information
25
• USDOEEERE’sBioEnergyTechnologiesOffice(BETO)
• IEABioenergyTasks38andDr.HelenaChum,SeniorResearchFellowEmeritus,NREL’sBESTDirectorate
• IEABioenergyTask39
• NREL’sNa*onalBioenergyCenter,BiosciencesCenterandBioEnergyScienceandTechnology(BEST)Directorate
Acknowledgments
26