ADVANCED INTEGRATED PLANNING - Amazon Web...

/ ©2017 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1

THE DER DRIVEN TRANSFORMATION

IMPERATIVE

ADVANCED INTEGRATED

PLANNING

SEPA

GRID EVOLUTION SUMMITJULY 27, 2017

Erik [email protected]

/ ©2017 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2 / ©2017 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2

OUR VIEW ON THE INDUSTRY TRANSFORMATIONTHE ENERGY CLOUD1

EMERGING: THE ENERGY CLOUD

Distributed, Two-Way Power Flows

TODAY: TRADITIONAL POWER GRID

Central, One-Way Power System

1 Navigating the Energy Transformation: Building a Competitive Advantage for Energy Cloud 2.0 (white paper)

©2016 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. (Source: Navigant Consulting)

http://www.navigant.com/insights/library/energy/2016/navigating-the-energy-transformation/


PUBLIC UTILITIES FORTNIGHTLY:

STATE & FUTURE OF THE POWER INDUSTRY

Survey of 400+ key industry professionals – July, 2017

• Nearly half of the respondents cite increased

penetration of DER as the most disruptive

threat to traditional utility business

models over the coming decade.

• The effects of DER are industry-wide and will

have a deep impact on the existing

market.

• DER was by far the dominant trend cited

among respondents, with all other trends

receiving only a small fraction of votes.

“Which one of the following trends is the

most disruptive to traditional utility

business models over the next decade?”


Distributed

Generation

Distributed

Storage

Microgrids

Demand

Response

Energy

Efficiency

Electric

Vehicles

DISTRIBIUTED ENERGY RESOURCES (DER):

WHAT’S INCLUDED?

Resources can be utility, customer, or 3rd party owned on the grid in

front of the meter or customer owned behind the meter.


DER IN THE UNITED STATESWE FORECAST STRONG DER PENETRATION GROWTH OVER THE NEXT DECADE

Observations

• DER deployments

will reach ~30 GW

this year in the US,

versus new central

station generation

(19.7GW)

• On a 5-year basis

(2015-2019), DER in

the US is growing

almost 3 times faster

than central

generation (168 GW

vs. 57 GW).

(Source: Navigant Research)

Annual Installed DER Power Capacity Additions

by DER Technology, United States: 2015-2024

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

(MW

)

Distributed Generation Distributed Energy Storage Microgrids Electric Vehicle Charging Load Demand Response Energy Efficiency


EXAMPLE CHALLENGE: LOAD FORECASTING

TRADITIONAL TECHNIQUES SHOWING SIGNS OF AGE

• “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”- DERs are less predictable (both in installed capacity, and daily performance)

- Weather patterns seem to be breaking from long term trends

- Customer behavior (in some cases) is evolving

- New types of load not predicted or well understood yet (e.g., EVs, grow-ops)

• Geo-special granularity now required

• Recent system-wide forecasting misses—a few examples:- Large Eastern utility misses spring/winter forecast: points to unusual weather

- Southern utility misses annual forecast significantly: reasons under review

- Mid-sized Northern IOU misses peak forecast on high-side for several years running: weather?

- Mid-Atlantic utility load forecast used to justify construction of large generating station: actual loads falling far short (economic downturn played a clear role here, and no-one predicted it, to be fair)

• Implications: - Under- or over- investment

- Investment/upgrades in wrong or too many locations

- revenue shortfalls

• And there are challenges beyond forecasting…

Note: the availability of advanced modeling techniques and cost-effective big data computing power are no longer impediments to conducting advanced analytics & load forecasting with these data


PLANNING MUST BE MORE AUTOMATED AS WELL AS

INTEGRATED = ADVANCED INTEGRATED PLANNING

Advanced Integrated Planning:

• Integrated internal functions, as well as

stakeholder process

• “Optimization” of investment across customer,

distribution, transmission, generation

• Uncertainty and risk analysis fundamentally

integrated

Strategic grid and resource investment

and risk assessment

Stakeholder and regulatory input and

adjustment

Revise programs and adjust strategies based on results and market

feedback

Customer adoption scenarios: load and

DER forecasts at zone/feeder level

Integrated customer, distribution,

transmission and resource analysis

2-3 year planning cycle

Traditional Planning:

• Largely internal to utility

• Some coordination between planning

functions

• Stakeholder process engaged at the end

of the cycle

Stakeholder

processes

Load

forecasting

Distribution

planning

Integrated

Resource

Planning

Transmission

planning

Regulators,

City

Council,

etc.

Sub-year iterations

Program and DER procurement priorities and grid investment


Internal Operations: People and processes within utility planning functions

Internal Systems

Context: OT/IT production

systems

2. Distribution

Planning &

Analysis

1. Advanced Load

and DER Forecasting (with integrated customer

program / resource

scenarios)

4. Integrated

Resource Planning

(IRP)

5. Coordination, Analysis

and Integration (coordinated data flows with

integrated benefit-cost and

reliability analysis)

ADVANCED INTEGRATED PLANNING:

HIGH LEVEL ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

3. Transmission

Planning &

Analysis

External Market: Evolving technology and vendor landscape, new service providers, etc.

Automation and

Coordination

Visualization and Planning Management Layer

Add: Criteria—

Reliability

Economic

Environmental

Risk/Uncertainty

Add: system stability

analysis: voltage

oscillation risk

Aggregate

Load/DER

Wholesale Values of

Capacity/Energy

DER

Scenarios

Impact of DER

Installations

Analysis coordination,

automation and data

flow control

Geo-special

scenario data

Add: dynamic

analysis

(transient

impacts)

Add: Load profile

management (daily,

hourly); geo-

special granularity

Add: Cross

Team and

cross analysis

coordination

Dynamic, standardized data exchange


2. Distribution

Planning &

Analysis

1. Advanced Load

and DER Forecasting

4. Integrated

Resource Planning

(IRP)

5. Coordination, Analysis

and Integration

ADVANCED INTEGRATED PLANNING:

CAN START WITH EXISTING TOOL SETS

3. Transmission

Planning &

Analysis

Visualization and Planning Management Layer

• CYMDist (steady state &

dynamic)

• Synergi

• Milsoft

• DEW

• GridLabD

• PSSE: Network models needed

to assess advanced concepts

(e.g. networked systems)

• Siemens PTI - PSSE,

Python, MUST

• Power world

• GE - PLSF

• Power Gem - TARA

• Matlab

• EMTP

• PSCAD

• Gridview

• Promod

• Plexos

• Aurora

• Strategist

• POM

• Excel

• R

• dB/SQL

• SAS

• Analytica

• TROVE

• IA

• Energia

• Others evolving

• Python Scripting

• GRID+ (Benefit/Cost

Analysis, Risk Assessment)

• Python (Pandas, Django,

d3.js, crossfilter.js, dc.js,

leaflet.js)

• HTML5Broad array of

commercial tools

in use today


ANALYSIS OF CIRCUIT UPGRADE COSTS TO MEET DER

PENETRATION LEVELS

High-Level approach:

• Analyze dynamic

performance of distribution

feeder for high penetration

DER

Objectives:

• Apply predictive modeling

on representative

distribution feeders to

assess PQ impacts from

variable renewable output

• Assess the capability of

advanced inverter

functionality to mitigate PQ

impacts

Standard Inverters

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

0% 50% 100%

Sys

tem

Up

gra

de

Co

st ($

00

0)

DER Penetration (% of Feeder Thermal Rating)

Advanced Inverters

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

0% 50% 100%

DER Penetration (% of Feeder Thermal Rating)

= violation


INVESTMENT OPTIMIZATION - ANALYSISEXAMPLE OF GRID+ TOOL OUTPUTS

The net present value of deployed distribution grid capabilities is $3.2B

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

$B (

nom

inal

)

EnvironmentalReliabilityEconomicCosts

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Like

lihoo

d of

Occ

urre

nce

$B (present value)

Approximately 3% chance of negative NPV

Scenario Best Expected Worst

NPV ($B) 5.0 3.2 1.0

Uncertainty analysis for net present value (2016 $B)

Net present value of investments (2016 $B) Annual benefits and costs of investments (nominal $B)

Distribution of costs and benefits across the value chain (2016 $B)

The best and worst case represent

the 95th and 5th percentile

outcomes, respectively.

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0$B

(pr

esen

t val

ue)

EnvironmentalReliabilityEconomicCost

Generation Transmission Distribution Customers

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

$B (

pres

ent v

alue

)

$3.2B

$1.5B


TO MEET THE IMPERATIVE…

• Convene a cross-functional team charged with planning in a high-DER

environment:

- examine how existing planning tool sets are used, and whether they can meet the more

dynamic needs of high DER planning

- understand the gaps, and what external tools are available and appropriate

- Develop internal tools to coordinate across external planning tools processes

• Develop DER adoption scenarios that will impact the business

- Develop corresponding load forecasts using newer, advanced techniques (bottom-up,

data rich)

• Perform planning analyses for relevant parts of value chain (e.g.

customer programs, distribution, transmission)

• Optimize across potential investment and program areas

• Iterate quickly, as situation on the ground and external market forces

evolve

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