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© 2020 From Technologies to Markets Advanced Packaging Current Trends & Challenges
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Page 1: Advanced Packaging Current Trends & Challenges...• This pie chart represents superpositions of all Advanced Packaging platforms (Fan-in/Fan-out WLP, Flip-chip including 2.5D/3D and

© 2020

From Technologies to Markets

Advanced Packaging Current

Trends & Challenges

Page 2: Advanced Packaging Current Trends & Challenges...• This pie chart represents superpositions of all Advanced Packaging platforms (Fan-in/Fan-out WLP, Flip-chip including 2.5D/3D and

9

ADVANCED PACKAGING PLATFORMS –Classification at System Integration Level

Wafer level Substrate/Strip level (Panel based) Panel level

Level 1 - Die

Interconnection

Substrate/

leadframe

Level 2 -

Packaging

Module

Level 3 -

No SMT needed

SiP/PoP, etc.

ED in PCB/Flex

ED in

laminate

Organic/

glass

substrate

etc.

Standard organic substrate

Flip-chip Wire-bond RDL

FIWLP FOWLP 3D/2.5DFOPLP

Silicon/

glass

bridge

Bump/

pillar

TSV/

TGV

Ceramic/

leadframe

and others

Advanced

organic

substrate

Mold

embeddingOrganic interposer

FC

WB

CSP

BGA Standard

BGA Advanced

LGA

BGA

LGA

CSP

Organic substrate Ceramic/

leadframe

and others

FC WB

AP platform

Page 3: Advanced Packaging Current Trends & Challenges...• This pie chart represents superpositions of all Advanced Packaging platforms (Fan-in/Fan-out WLP, Flip-chip including 2.5D/3D and

10©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018

ADVANCED PACKAGING MARKET SHARE EVOLUTION 2014-2025

Advanced Packaging revenue will almost equal to traditional packaging revenue by 2025.

In 2019, the AP market share was 42.6%. Due to strong momentum in AP market driven by mega trends, the share of

AP in the total semiconductor market is increasing continuously and will reach almost 50% of the market by 2025.

In 2014, AP market share was 38% and there is strong possibility that in 2026, AP market share will exceed that of

traditional packaging.

38.0%42.6%

49.4%

62.0%57.4%

50.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Advanced Packaging revenue as % of total packaging

AP Other

$53B $85B

Page 4: Advanced Packaging Current Trends & Challenges...• This pie chart represents superpositions of all Advanced Packaging platforms (Fan-in/Fan-out WLP, Flip-chip including 2.5D/3D and

11©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018

Fan-out,

$3,046 M, 7%

Flip-chip,

$32,291 M,

77%

Fan-in ,

$2,491 M, 6%

ED, $149 M,

0.4%

3D stacking*,

$4,186 M, 10%

2025( $42.2B)

Fan-out,

$1,256 M, 5%

Flip-chip,

$23,938 M,

83%

Fan-in ,

$2,068 M, 7%

ED, $55 M,

0.2%

3D stacking*,

$1,466 M, 5%

2019( $28.8B)

ADVANCED PACKAGING REVENUE FORECAST 2019-2025

• NOTE:

• Values represent packaging services (assembly and test) and do not include FEOL Si die processing

• TSV* includes portion of package revenue not included in Flip-chip or fan-in

• The Advanced Packaging market was

worth ~$28.8B in 2019. It is

expected to grow at ~ 7%

CAGR2019-2025 to reach ~$42.2B in

2025.

• Highest revenue CAGR expected

from 2.5D / 3D stacking IC, ED (in

laminate substrate) and Fan-Out,

21%, 18% and 16%, respectively, as

high volume products further

penetrate the market: FO in mobile,

networking, automotive; 2.5D/3D TSV

in AI/ML, HPC, datacenters, CIS,

MEMS/sensors; ED in automotive

and medical.

Advanced Packaging REVENUE SPLIT by packaging platform

Flip-chip CAGR2018-2025 ~ 5.9%%

Fan-out CAGR2018-2025 ~ 16%

Fan-in WLP CAGR2018-2025~ 3.2%

3D Stacking CAGR2018-2025 ~ 21.3%

Embedded Die CAGR2018-2025 ~ 18%

CAGR ~7%

Page 5: Advanced Packaging Current Trends & Challenges...• This pie chart represents superpositions of all Advanced Packaging platforms (Fan-in/Fan-out WLP, Flip-chip including 2.5D/3D and

12

TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP: FROM NANO-SCALE TO MICRO-SCALE..

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Assumed

Moore’s Law

Stacked Die

µBump Pitch (μm)

Die to Substrate

FC Bump Pitch (μm)

Substrate to Board

BGA Ball Pitch (μm)

22nm 14nm 10nm 7nm

28nm 14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm

20nm 16nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm

20nm 14nm (licensed) Stopped

Adva

nce

d N

odes

Adva

nce

d P

ackag

ing*

16/14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm

200 to 150 μm 150 to 80 μm 60 to 40 μm <40 μm

400/350 μm 300 μm

Advanced Packaging is essential to bridge the scale-gap between die and PCBIndustry is looking into the growing importance of functional roadmap

Average trends based on technology and industry expectation

*Minimum dimension

2nm

95 to 48 μm 44 to 20 μm 20 to 10 μm

2nm

5nm

Page 6: Advanced Packaging Current Trends & Challenges...• This pie chart represents superpositions of all Advanced Packaging platforms (Fan-in/Fan-out WLP, Flip-chip including 2.5D/3D and

13©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018

TSMC

14%

Samsung Electronics

10%

ASE

9%

SPIL

8%

Intel

8%

Chip Bond

7%

JCET/JCAP

6%

Amkor/Nanium

6%

Powertech

4%

NEPES

4%

ChipMOS

4%

SK Hynix

3%

LBSemicon

2%

Global Foundries

2%

Others

4%

Winstek

1%

Huatian

1%

SJSemi

1%

Unisem

1%China WLCSP…

Texas Instrument…TFME

1%

Sony…

2019 ADVANCED PACKAGING WAFER SPLIT (300MM EQ WSPY)

ADVANCED PACKAGING 2019 WAFER SPLIT BY MANUFACTURER

TEN players, which includes 2 IDMs (Intel, Samsung), a foundry (TSMC), the top 5 global OSATs (ASE, SPIL, Amkor, PTI, JCET) together with Nepes and Chipbond, process approximately 75% of Advanced Packaging wafers.

NOTE:

• This pie chart represents superpositions of all Advanced Packaging platforms (Fan-in/Fan-out WLP, Flip-chip including 2.5D/3D and

embedded die.

• Flip-chip values are entered as total capacity, fan-in, fan-out, 3D stacking and embedded die as total production.

• Flip-chip production values were not available by customer – global utilization is at ~85-90% of capacity.

31.2 M

300 mm eq.

©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018

Page 7: Advanced Packaging Current Trends & Challenges...• This pie chart represents superpositions of all Advanced Packaging platforms (Fan-in/Fan-out WLP, Flip-chip including 2.5D/3D and

14©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018Status of Advanced Packaging Industry 2020 | Report | www.yole.fr | ©2020

FINANCIAL OVERVIEW FOR TOP 25 OSATS

Revenue in 2019

©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018

Top OSATs with heavy investments

were creating a disparity with the rest

of the pack.

Top 8 OSATs now include 3

manufacturer HQ-ed in China.

UTAC maintained its 8th spot.

Companies in the tail are at a higher

risk if there is no differentiated

technology or IP for merger and

acquisition as an exit strategy.

Large OSATs were separated from the rest.

Top 8 OSATs continued with heavy investment in CapEx and R&D.

**Note: SPIL included in ASE figures from 2019 onwards

8,456

4,053

3,285

2,209

1,169

1,085

848

710

678

675

582

484

405

399

398

339

334

314

289

286

267

264

247

223

157

ASE (rev w/SPIL & w/o USI)

Amkor

JCET Group

Powertech Technology

Tongfu Microelectronics

Tianshui Huatian Microelectronics

King Yuan Electronics

UTAC

Chipbond Technology

ChipMOS Technologies

Orient Semiconductor Electronics

SFA semicon

Hana Micron (Rev w/o Hana Materials)

Greatek Elec

AOI Electronics

Carsem

Sigurd Microelectronics

Formosa Advanced Technologies

Nepes Corporation

Unisem Berhad

Ardentec

Inari Amertron Berhad

Tong Hsing

Walton Advanced Engineering

Lingsen Precision Industries

TOP 25 OSAT ranking by 2019 revenue [$M]

Players not within the Top 8 rankings need to catch up.

Otherwise, they risk being acquired or incurring losses in business.

TSMC ranks between 3rd &4th

If counted separately, SPIL revenue in 2019 is $2.88B,

which will place it as 4th among global OSATs.

Page 8: Advanced Packaging Current Trends & Challenges...• This pie chart represents superpositions of all Advanced Packaging platforms (Fan-in/Fan-out WLP, Flip-chip including 2.5D/3D and

‹#›©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018

SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN - 2020

System / ProductSub-Module /

Sub-systemsDesign & Assembly

Design of chip & package

Wafer Level Packaging« Middle -end »

SiliconManufacturing

« Front-end »

Package Assembly & Final

Test« Back-end »

Front-end related

materials suppliers

FE related

equipment suppliers

BE Packaging materials

suppliers

BE Packaging equipment

suppliers

Fab-less

IC players

IDMs (Integrated Device Manufacturers)

WLP houses (no need for traditional substrate)

PCB suppliers

SMT material suppliers

SMT equipment suppliers

Package substrate

laminate suppliers

Substrate material suppliers(FR4, BT resin, Cu clad, etc.…)

Wafer foundries

Fab-light players (outsourcing + focused investment in manufacturing & critical IP)

Wafer Bumping houses PCB houses with Embedded die capability

Passive components,

connectors, etc.

OEMs(Original

Equipment

Makers)

Semiconductor production chain

PCB and substrate component suppliers

Equipment/materials suppliers

Passive components, connectors etc.

OSATs

Integrated wafer / package manufacturing foundries

OSATs with module/EMS capability

ODM / EMS / DMS

Page 9: Advanced Packaging Current Trends & Challenges...• This pie chart represents superpositions of all Advanced Packaging platforms (Fan-in/Fan-out WLP, Flip-chip including 2.5D/3D and

‹#›©2018 | www.yole.fr | Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2018

MOBILITY ACROSS SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN AT VARIOUS LEVELS

Supply chain is undergoing changes at various levels to

adjust to changing business environment.. However, some of

them have successfully managed to expand in new

business model & have huge impact across IC

manufacturing chain while others have failed to take off.

In order to expand the business and

explore new areas, players in

semiconductor supply chains are

moving to different business models

Page 10: Advanced Packaging Current Trends & Challenges...• This pie chart represents superpositions of all Advanced Packaging platforms (Fan-in/Fan-out WLP, Flip-chip including 2.5D/3D and

17

OSATS PACKAGING BUSINESS CANNIBALIZATION TREND

Total IC packaging business:

$67B (2019)

Traditional

PackagingAdvanced

Packaging

Foundries

EMS/ODM

players

Substrate /

PCB suppliers

• Packaging / assembly business was

traditionally domain of OSATs & IDMs.

• Players from different business models

viz. Foundries, substrate/PCB suppliers,

EMS/DM are entering the assembly

/packaging business & cannibalizing

the OSAT business.

Page 11: Advanced Packaging Current Trends & Challenges...• This pie chart represents superpositions of all Advanced Packaging platforms (Fan-in/Fan-out WLP, Flip-chip including 2.5D/3D and

Thank you!

©2020 | www.yole.fr |


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