Advanced Technical Analysis in FX

Fibonacci Retracements, Elliot Wave Theory, Gann Fan and

Andrew’s Pitchfork

Paul Brittain

Alaron Trading

1-800-935-6492

Pbrittain@alaron.com

Fibonacci

Fibonacci retracement percentages correspond to natural ratios discovered by the Greeks. They referred to the phenomenon as the Golden Ratio. The theory was then rediscovered by

Fibonacci; a medieval, Italian Mathematician.

Fibonacci

As displayed in the following slide, these retracement

levels are a common occurrence in the ebb and

flow of a market trend.

Fibonacci

Fibonacci proved that the Golden Ratio is present in

many aspects of nature and science, and Elliott felt that it had great significance on

the financial markets as well.

Fibonacci

Elliot asserted that these

counter-trend waves will

usually retrace

against the trending

waves by 38.2, 50 and 61.8

percent.

Fibonacci

Commodity prices will frequently consist of an

initial wave, a second wave (often retracing 61.8% of

the initial move), the third wave (usually the largest), then another retracement,

and finally the 5th wave (the last gap), which would

exhaust the movement.

Fibonacci

The Fibonocci Ruler is the most commonly used

retracement measuring tool. Each level of the

ruler highlights the areas in which the market may

experience support or resistance.

Fibonacci

The market will often

reverse its coarse at

these retracement levels. Notice the reversal points on the

next two slides.

Elliot Wave Theory

The Elliot Wave Theory was developed by Ralph

Nelson Elliot. This theory is based on the premise that market behavior is based on waves rather than random timing.

Elliot Wave Theory

Elliot believed that prices fluctuated in a series of

waves based on the Golden Ratio, also referred to as the

Golden mean that was originally proven by

Fibonacci.

Elliot Wave Theory

Elliot believed that the market rises in a series of 5

waves and that a market declines in a series of 3

waves.

Elliot Wave Theory

According to the theory, on the first wave a market

rises, on wave two it declines, begins to rise again on the third wave. The third wave is followed by a period

of decline known as the fourth wave, and finally

completes the rise on the fifth wave.

Elliot Wave Theory

There is a correction period following the five wave

sequence. This declining period is referred to as a three-wave correction.

During this time the market theoretically declines for wave A, begins to rise for wave B, and falls again for

wave C.

Elliot Wave Theory Simplified

Wave one: Normally very short and easy to miss.

Wave two: A retracement wave, usually gives back all or most of what the first one gained.

Elliot Wave Theory Simplified

Wave three: Usually very prominent, as it follows a period of what appears as consolidation, most people trade this wave.

Elliot Wave Theory Simplified

Wave four: Noted to be very intricate yet still a consolidation. One of Elliot’s main rules is that in a 5-wave advance cycle, wave 4 can’t overlap wave 1.

Wave five: Often very active, yet at some point declines and leads to the 3 wave corrective cycle.

Elliot Wave Theory Simplified

Three Wave Decline:

Wave A: Normally seen as a minor pullback, of wave 5 of the advance cycle.

Wave B: Follows Wave A of the downtrend, and is often hard to spot but should result in a third wave continuing down.

Wave C: Usually quite significant and many traders see this selling opportunity.

Elliot Wave Example

Elliot Wave Theory

Drawbacks to the wave counting strategy:

• One man’s wave one, is another’s wave three. In other words the starting point is somewhat ambiguous.

•It is easy to count the waves after they occur, but difficult to identify them as they are occurring.

Andrew’s Pitchfork

Dr. Alan Andrews developed a channel technique to identify areas of support and

resistance from a common baseline. The premise of the theory is

to trade the channel depicted by the “tines of

the pitchfork.

Andrew’s Pitchfork

The center tine begins at the most recent contract high or low. The top tine is determined by looking at the highest move from the contract high or low. The next point is located based on the retracement

of that move.

Resistance tine based on most recent move

from baseline.

Support tine identified by

retracement of the original move

Gann Fan

W.D. Gann designed several techniques for studying price charts. He believed

that specific geometric patterns and angles

contained reoccurrences that could be used to predict price action.

Gann Fan

Gann believed that the ideal balance between price and

time exists within a 45 degree angle of the axis.

The Gann fan is made up of 9 angles and is based on this

concept.

Gann Fan

The corresponding lines represent support and

resistance, once one line is broken by the entire day’s price range the next line becomes new support or

resistance. The drawing of these lines should begin at a relative top or bottom of a

market.

Gann Fan

It is also imperative that when drawing the Gann

Fan, the 45 degree angles are kept in tact.

In other words the center line should keep a 1 to 1

slope.

Gann Fan

During an uptrend, the penetration of one line

suggests that the market will rally to the next, in a

downtrend a broken support line anticipates a drop to the

next line.

Paul Brittain

Alaron Trading

1-800-935-6492

Pbrittain@alaron.com