36
Advanced Technologies at Toyota Clean Air Act Advisory Committee September 18, 2008 Tom Stricker Toyota Motor North America
Advanced Technologies at Toyota
Clean Air Act Advisory Committee
September 18, 2008
Tom Stricker
Toyota Motor North America
Topics
• Market Overview and Factors
• Deploying New Technology
• Hybrid
• Plug-In Hybrid
• Fuel Cell
• Conclusions
US Industry January-July Sales
Source: July Industry Report, (combined sales, include Hawaii)
2008
9554.5
THOUSANDS
0
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
2007 2008
8547.7
-11% DSR
’07/’08 Volume Decrease: 1,006,734 Units
-11% -19.5%
-2.2% 33.7%
5.1% -1.7%
-4% -17.7%
-17.9% -24.6%
-25.3% -27.2%
Industry Total Lt Truck
Total Psgr Car Entry
Subcompact Standard Mid
Small SUV Van
Small PU Mid SUV
FSPU Premium Mid
New Vehicle Segment Shifts July CYTD Sales versus Year Ago % DSR Chg
Large SUV -30.7% Sports Coupe -25.7%
Near Luxury -7.6%
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-0
3Oct-
03Ja
n-04Apr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-0
5Oct-
05Ja
n-06Apr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-0
7Oct-
07Ja
n-08Apr-0
8Ju
l-08
CPG
Short-Term Factors
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_a_epmr_pte_cpgal_m.htm
Longer-Term Issues Driving Change in Business
Global development of industry and
technology in the 21st
century
Accelerated consumption of
fossil fuels
1. Energy & Fuel Diversification
3. Air QualityPopulation growth
Growing number of motor vehicles
2. CO2 Reduction
4. Urban Congestion
All affect Auto Industry
The Automobile Challenge 1. Balance reduction of environmental impact with meeting
consumer wants • It doesn’t matter how “green” a product is if no one will
buy it
2. Mass market appeal • Must sell millions to make real impact
3. Life Cycle Assessment • Must look beyond “tailpipe” for true environmental
impact
Diesel enginesDiesel engines
Gasoline engines
Gasoline engines
Electrical energy
Electrical energy
Alternative fuelengines
Alternative fuel engines
HSDHSD
Synthetic fuelsSynthetic fuels
BiofuelsBiofuels
DPNRDPNR
Lean burnLean burn
D-4D-4
VVT-iVVT-i CNGCNG
EVEV Common rail DICommon rail DI
FCHVFCHV
Plug-in HVPlug-in HV
Reduced Emissions
Energy Diversification
CO2 Reduction
Issues
Hybrid TechnologyHybrid Technology
Diesel HVDiesel HV Alternative fuel HVAlternative fuel HV
Urban Congestion
Sustainable Products
Toyota’s Multi-Path Approach
Typical Cycle
4% CAFE Scenario
Product Cycles Are A Reality
Gen 1 Gen 2
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6
Minor mods. Base FE Gen 1 + U%
Major mods.? Base FE Gen 1 + 22%
22% improvement at each generation requires major modifications in mid-cycle (substantially higher cost)
and/or multiple technologies at each new redesign
Cost and product cycles cannot be
separated. NAS costs (and others) assume
normal product cycles.
Technology Takes Time to Penetrate
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1975
19
77
1979
19
81
1983
19
85
1987
19
89
1991
19
93
1995
19
97
1999
20
01
2003
20
05
2007
FWD Lock -Up A / T CV T PF I M u lti-V a lv e VVT Hy br i d
Model Year
% N
ew V
ehic
le F
leet
2007 EPA Automitive Fuel Economy Trends Report Table 9 - Powertrain Characteristics of 1975 to 2007 Cars and Trucks (Percentage Basis)
Toyota Hybrid Development
80 Hybrid Designs - Fuel Economy - Emissions
- Technical Feasibility - Cost
Engine
BatteryGenerator
Motor
Hybrid Synergy Drive 1998 Prius
Toyota’s Line of Hybrids in America
TOYOTA MODELS
Prius Midsize 5 Door
Camry Hybrid Midsize 5 Door
RX400h Luxury SUV
GS450h Premium Sport Sedan
LS600h Flagship
LEXUS MODELS
Highlander Hybrid Midsize SUV
Combined US sales averaging over 23,000 / month in 2008
A Million & Half Hybrids Sold & Growing
Cumalative Hybrid Sales thru July 2008
20081997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Projected
*Toyota Estimate
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Energy Benefits to Date*
• 660 Million gallons of gasoline saved • 13.1 Billion lbs of CO2 emissions avoided
US Sales 900,000
Global Sales 1,500,000
Hybrid as a Foundation
• Toyota’s Hybrid Synergy Drive is the powertrain
foundation for next generation technologies – Flexibility – Reduced development time & cost – Lower cost higher volume potential
Householdelectricity
Toyota’s Current PHEV Prototype
PROTOTYPE OBJECTIVES
• Study consumer behavior (US)
• Study public charging (Europe)
• Demonstrate system, not battery capability
• Battery cost & life – key for commercial introduction
• Packaging
• Need for cleaner electricity
CHALLENGESVEHICLE BENEFITS
• Fuel diversification (energy security)
• Potential greenhouse gas reduction
• Reduced fuel cost
Household electricity
Nickel metal hydride battery
Second nickel metal hydride battery
On board charger
Toyota PHEV Performance Specifications
• EV Performance (Charge-depleting) – Top speed in EV mode – 62 mph
– Max EV power ~ 40 kW
– EV range ~ 7 miles
• Battery (2 x NiMH) – 2 x 6.5 Ah (13Ah / 2.6kW-hr)
– 202 V
• Charging Time – 1-1.5 hr on 220V
Batt
ery
SOC
Miles Traveled
Charge-depleting operation
Charge-sustaining operation
PHEV Operating Modes
– 3-4 hr on 120V
• Max system power 100kW (20kw more than Prius)
2010 – The Next Step
• Toyota has announced our next generation PHEV: – Significant numbers beginning in 2010 model year
– Global program
– Commercial fleets
– Li-Ion batteries
• Manufactured by Panasonic EV (Joint venture with Toyota)
– Results to help determine suitability for consumer market
• Re-evaluate suitability of battery electric vehicles for consumer market
External Expert Cost Estimate per kWhr Based on Estimates by M. Anderman
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 EV Operating Range (miles)
$1000/kWhr
$ 500/kWhr
What is the right tradeoff for consumers?
1 2 3 4
The Benefit of High Volume Sales
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Adv Tech HV Gas
10% Adv Tech20% HV10% HVConventional
Fuel
Con
sum
edIn
Gal
x 1
000
Assumes all vehicles travel 15,000 mi/yr
100(90 mpg)Adv Tech
43,33353,33326,667N/A Gallons Saved
200100(45 mpg)HV
9008009001000(25 mpg)Conventional gas
10% Adv Tech 20% HV 10% HV Baseline
Vehicle Number
Clean Power is Essential
Wel
l to
Whe
el C
O2
Em
issi
ons （
Priu
s＝１）
Prius Plug-in
1.0
0.5
U.S.
Japan
France
China
Prius Equivalent Vehicle ＬＡ＃４
0.0
The advantage is big in France where nuclear power generation is common. There is no advantage in China, which mainly uses coal-fired power plants.
Toyota’s Current Fuel Cell Prototype
VEHICLE BENEFITS PROTOTYPE OBJECTIVES CHALLENGES
• Zero tailpipe emissions • Public education on hydrogen • Fuel cell system cost • Potential non-petroleum,
diversified fuel sources
• Low / zero carbon fuel
• Demonstrate technology
• Identify infrastructure issues
• Fuel cell stack life
• Lack of infrastructure
Key System Components
Steady Improvement
Cost
Compactness /High Power DensityStack Durability
Double
Triple
Next targets
1/10 by design / materials× 1/10 by mass
production
Driving Range
Double
High & Low Temperature
Significant Progress
105°C
- 30°C
CostCost
Compactness /Compactness /High Power DensityHigh Power DensityStack DurabilityStack Durability
DoubleDouble
Out
put
De n
s ity
Cos
t
’’0505 Model GoalModel Goal
’’0505 Model GoalModel Goal
’’0505 Model GoalModel Goal
TripleTriple
Dur
abili
ty
Next targetsNext targets
1/101/10by design /by design /materialsmaterials ×× 1/101/10by massby mass
productionproduction
Over 500 miles demonstrated
Driving RangeDriving Range
DoubleDouble
Driv
ing
Ran
ge
’’0505 Model GoalModel Goal
High & LowHigh & Low TemperatureTemperature
SignificantSignificantProgressProgress
Ope
ratin
g Te
mpe
ratu
re
’’0505 Model GoalModel Goal
105105°°CC
-- 3030°°CC
Challenges Remain
Conclusions
• Toyota recognizes we must adapt to multiple energy and environmental issues and regulations
• Deploying technology takes time
• Hybrid is the foundation for future vehicle technologies at Toyota – PHEVs & FCs are evolutions
• PHEVs & FCs show environmental & energy security promise, but only if produced in large volumes
• Durability, cost and infrastructure challenges remain for PHEVs and FCs
• Without “green” fuels, the environmental benefit (GHG reduction) of these technologies will be modest at best
Thank You!
Questions?
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)
1978
19
80
1982
19
84
1986
19
88
1990
19
92
1994
19
96
1998
20
00
2002
20
04
2006
20
08
2010
Historical CAFE Standards
10.0
14.0
18.0
22.0
26.0
30.0
mp g
CA R
T RUCK
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Car CAFE Performance
25.0
27.0
29.0
31.0
33.0
35.0
37.0
MPG
Toyota
Industry Average
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Truck CAFE Performance
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
MPG
Toyota
Industry Average
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Energy Bill (EISA) Requirement
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Current Car Std
Current Truck Std
35 mpg (min) combined fleet by 2020
EISA Trajectory
MPG
OOlld CAFd CAFEE SS yystemstem Fu
el E
cono
my
Smaller/Lighter Bigger/Heavier
Vehicle Models
-(
FlatFlatFlatFlatFlat CACACACACAFEFEFEFEFE StaStaStaStaStannnnndardardardardard
(+)
)-( d
(+)
)-( d
(+)
)( d
(+)
) d
(+)
)
Old CAFE System -Smaller vehicles provided a benefit -Concern about small vehicle safety -Concern about manufacturers with greater number of larger vehicles
OOlld CAFd CAFEE SS yystemstem
Old CAFE System -Smaller vehicles provided a benefit -Concern about small vehicle safety -Concern about manufacturers with greater number of larger vehicles
Fuel
Eco
nom
y
Smaller/Lighter Bigger/Heavier
Vehicle Models
-(
FlatCAFEStandard
(+)
)-(
FlatCAFEStandard
(+)
)-((
FlatCAFEStandard
(+)
)
FlatCAFEStandard
(+)
)
Flat CAFE Standard
(+)
)
New CAFE System -Target based on size of vehicle -Head-to-head fuel economy within each class is more important -Particular challenge for light trucks -Technology needed on all size classes
NeNeww CAFCAF EE SS yystem (2011 mostem (2011 modeldel year)year)
Fuel
Eco
nom
y
Smaller/Lighter Bigger/Heavier
Vehicle Models
Size-BasedCAFEStandard
(+)
(-)
(+)
(-)Size-BasedCAFEStandard
(+)
(-)
(+)
(-)Size-Based CAFE Standard
(+)
(-)
(+)
(-)
Old CAFE System -Smaller vehicles provided a benefit -Concern about small vehicle safety -Concern about manufacturers with greater number of larger vehicles
New CAFE System -Target based on size of vehicle -Head-to-head fuel economy within each class is more important -Particular challenge for light trucks -Technology needed on all size classes
MPG
Tar
get f
or V
ehic
le
Proposed Size-Based CAFE Targets 43.0
38.0
33.0
28.0
23.0
18.0 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
WB x TW (tire center @ ground)
2015 Car 2014 Car 2013 Car 2012 Car 2011 Car 2011 Truck 2012 Truck 2013 Truck 2014 Truck 2015 Truck
MPG
Energy Bill (EISA) and NHTSA Proposal 36.0
NPRM Combined Standard
Nominal EISA Rate (3.3%) 34.0
4.5%/yr32.0
30.0
3.3%/yr 28.0
26.0
24.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MY
Max
. MPG
Cre
dit
Flex Fuel Vehicle Credit 1.4
FFV Credit Phase-Down 1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Model Year
